Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Statistics III
Master in Management
EXAM
21st December 2016, 1 pm
Duration: 1h30
INSTRUCTIONS
Write your name and student number on the first page of this assignment.
The answers to the questions should be written in the locations indicated in this
assignment.
Before starting the EXAM confirm that this assignment has 21 pages numbered 1
to 21.
At the end of this assignment you will find included some key equations and
statistical tables.
You must remain seated in your place by the end of the EXAM.
When the time expires please turn your EXAM over and wait for its collection
made by invigilators.
For each question in Groups I to III indicate only one answer in the table in page 9
Each correct answer is worth 0,70 values
Each wrong answer is worth 0.10 negative (-0.10).
Each answer blank or poorly marked is worth 0.
Group I
The first statistical analyses were about the students and their CS1 grades: at this
stage, the very beginning, students were still uncomfortable about what they were
expected to do and show… the CS1 grades sample provided the following
indicators:
14 14
xi 249 ,3 (x i x) 2 19 ,469286
i 1 i 1
2. A confidence interval (CI) for the mean CS1 grade was computed:
[17,23;18,39]! This is a … confidence level CI computed using a … score
a) 95% / t
b) 90% / t
c) 95% / Z
d) 90% / Z
4. A p-value was computed and it is 0,85! We know that a statistical test has
been performed and that
a) the test statistics is greater than the critical value
b) we reject the Null hypothesis
c) the test statistics is smaller than the critical value
d) none of the others
5.3 We performed a two-sided test. The critical values are 17,9 and 19,3 and
were computed with a 95% confidence level. The p-value is
a) <0,05
b) <0,025
c) >0,05
d) none of the others
SUMMARY
Groups Count Sum Average Variance
Grade CS1 14 249,3 17,80714 1,497637
Grade CS2 14 270,6 19,32857 0,916044
Grade CS3 14 273,3 19,52143 0,327967
ANOVA
Source of variation SS df MSS F p-value
CS 24,69 2 12,345 13,5083 3,49E-05
Error 35,64143 39 0,913883
Total 60,33143 41
4.1. The test statistics (F) is aprox. equal to … and the decision is …
a) 13,5 / I fail to reject Ho
b) 13,5 / I reject Ho
c) 3,49 / I reject Ho
d) 3,49 / I fail to reject Ho
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,633790734
R Square 0,401690694
Adjusted R Square 0,292907184
Standard Error 0,481563218
Observations 14
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 1,712636966 0,856318 3,69257 0,059305049
Residual 11 2,550934462 0,231903
Total 13 4,263571429
5.3. We added two new variables to this Regression Analysis model and the
r-squared increased to 0,8786. The new Mean Sum of Squares of the
Regression is now aprox.
a) >3,69
b) 0,8563
c) 0,9365
d) none of the others
2.2 if instead 14 grades (groups) we would have 140 (with the exact same
distribution by the 6 classes), with the same confidence level than in
question 2.1, we would
a) find out that r-square is 0
b) change the decision
c) not change the decision
d) None of the others
(State the Null and Alternative Hypothesis, compute the test statistics and confirm
the conclusion with a usual level of confidence, referring any possible problems that
may occur)
Based on the Table in Group III and the fact that I was not able to reject Ho:
To reject Ho: Grade is independent from Gender I will need to “see” the difference
of the Grade distribution for Female and No for which I will, keeping the 14
students, propose this new observed table (Obs):
Grade CS2| Group Maj Female No
20 3 0 3
19-20 4 3 7
<19 0 4 4
7 7 14 that shows that groups with a
majority of women tend to have better grades than the other groups. We will
check if this is significant through a CA u8sing a 95% confidence level.
The expected frequencies (Exp) (all of them greater than 1) are the same as
previously
Grade CS2| Group Maj Female No
20 1.5 1.5
19-20 3.5 3.5
<19 2 2 and the Q statistics
if Ho is true
Using a 95% confidence level we will reject Ho: Q=7,14>5,99 (from a Chi-square
with 2 degrees of freedom) which validates our belief.
2. Do you think CS3 grade depends on CS1 grade?
Nova School of Business and Economics 10
Name: ___________________________________________________________ Nº: _________
The final answer is “with this sample I am not able to say yes”.
Build your own sample data (4 grades of each) in order to discuss this and get the
final answer.
Based on “with this sample I am not able to say yes” I do not want to see a
relationship between the 2 variables:
16.5
16
CS1 CS3
15.5
15 16
15
15 15
14.5 17 16
14 16 18 20
18 15
Through a Regression Analysis I will compute r-square and will test the
corresponding parameter value H: R2=0 vs R2>0
Compute r2=0,037 (showing the calculations) and
0,037
F 1 0,0769 lower than F1;2;0,05=18,51 (p<0,05)
1 0,037
4 1 1
This, in fact, does not mean there is no relationship between the 2 variables, as the
sample is still very small: maybe there is a relationship but we cannot see it =)
x
f (x i ) 1 or P(x i ) 1 f (x)dx 1 F(x) f (x i ) F(x) f (x)dx
i i xi x
EX x i f (x i ) EX x f (x) dx
i
2
E (X )2 (x i ) 2 f (x i ) 2
E (X 2
) (x )2 f (x) dx
i
XY E (X X )( Y Y ) (x i X )( y i Y )f ( x i , y i )
i
(1 )
X ~ N( ; ) X ~ N( ; ) P ~ N( ; )
n n 30 n n 30 n
2
z /2
n
ME
N 2 N 1 ME2
n n n0
2
X
(N 1) 2
n0 (N 1) 1 2
z / 22
nXPX nYPY
P0
nX nY
known
unknown
unknown
Large sample
Large sample
2 (n 1)s 2 (n 1)s 2
2
; 2
unknown
n 1 ; /2 n 1 ;1 /2
2 2
X Y
X Y x y z /2
nx ny
s 2p s 2p
x y t nx n y 2, / 2
nx ny
X Y
2
(nx 1) sx2 (ny 1) s y2
s p
nx ny 2
sx2 s y2
x y tv , /2
nx ny
X Y 2 2
2
sx2 s y2 sx2 s y2
v /(nx 1) /(n y 1)
nx ny nx ny
sx2 s y2
X Y x y z /2
nx ny
p X (1 p X ) p Y (1 p Y )
X- Y pX pY z /2
nX nY
Null
Assumption Test Statistic
Hypothesis
X~a a (or as a)
specified
distribution
X and Y
independent
respectively
µ1=µ2=…= µk F k 1 ~ Fk
Xi ~ N (µi , ) kn k 1 ;n k
2 2
one-way (x i x ) n (xi x)
i 1 i 1
n k
k
nk (xi x)2
i 1
F k 1 ~ Fk
kn k h 1 ;(k 1 )( h 1 )
µ1=µ2=…= µk (x i x ) 2
nk (xi x) 2
nh (xi x) 2
i 1 i 1 i 1
(k 1)(h 1)
h
Xi ~ N (µi , )
nh (xi x)2
i 1
F h 1 ~ Fh
µ1=µ2=…= µh kn k h 1 ;(k 1 )( h 1 )
2 2 2
two-way (x i x ) nk (xi x) nh (xi x)
i 1 i 1 i 1
(k 1)(h 1)
k
mnk (xi x)2
i 1
F k 1 ~ Fk
kn k h 1 ;hk (m 1 )
2 2 2
(x i x ) mnk (xi x) mnh (xi x) SSI
µ1=µ2=…= µk i 1 i 1 i 1
hk(m 1)
h
mnh (xi x)2
i 1
F k 1 ~ Fh
kn k h 1 ;hk (m 1 )
2 2 2
µ1=µ2=…= µh (x i x ) mnk (xi x) mnh (xi x) SSI
Xi ~ N (µi , ) i 1 i 1 i 1
hk(m 1)
SSI
(k 1)(h 1)
F kn k h
~ F(k 1 )( h 1 );hk (m 1 )
no 2 2 2
interaction (x i x ) mnk (xi x) mnh (xi x) SSI
i 1 i 1 i 1
two-way with
hk(m 1)
interaction
h k
SSI m ( x ji xi x j x)2 , m-nº of observations per cell
j 1 i 1
Estimator of 0 : b0 y b1 x
s XY
Estimator of 1 : b1
s 2X
s XY
Estimator of : r
s Xs Y
Error term i:
E( i) = 0 for all i=1, ..., n.
Var( i) = 2 for all i=1, ..., n.
Cov( i , j) = 0 for all i j .
0.8508
0,8
0,45 P[Z<1.04]=F(1.04)
P[Z < z]=xxxx
0,6
0,30
0,4
0,15
0,2
0,00 0,0
-3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50 -3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50
0,8
0,131
P[ gl < q]=xxx
P[q12<23.337]=F(23.337)
0,6
0,087
0,4
0,044
0,2
0,000 0,0
0,00 6,25 12,50 18,75 25,00 0,00 6,25 12,50 18,75 25,00
gl \ xxx 0,005 0,010 0,025 0,050 0,100 0,250 0,500 0,750 0,900 0,950 0,975 0,990 0,995
1 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,004 0,016 0,102 0,455 1,323 2,706 3,841 5,024 6,635 7,879
2 0,010 0,020 0,051 0,103 0,211 0,575 1,386 2,773 4,605 5,991 7,378 9,210 10,597
3 0,072 0,115 0,216 0,352 0,584 1,213 2,366 4,108 6,251 7,815 9,348 11,345 12,838
4 0,207 0,297 0,484 0,711 1,064 1,923 3,357 5,385 7,779 9,488 11,143 13,277 14,860
5 0,412 0,554 0,831 1,145 1,610 2,675 4,351 6,626 9,236 11,070 12,832 15,086 16,750
6 0,676 0,872 1,237 1,635 2,204 3,455 5,348 7,841 10,645 12,592 14,449 16,812 18,548
7 0,989 1,239 1,690 2,167 2,833 4,255 6,346 9,037 12,017 14,067 16,013 18,475 20,278
8 1,344 1,647 2,180 2,733 3,490 5,071 7,344 10,219 13,362 15,507 17,535 20,090 21,955
9 1,735 2,088 2,700 3,325 4,168 5,899 8,343 11,389 14,684 16,919 19,023 21,666 23,589
10 2,156 2,558 3,247 3,940 4,865 6,737 9,342 12,549 15,987 18,307 20,483 23,209 25,188
11 2,603 3,053 3,816 4,575 5,578 7,584 10,341 13,701 17,275 19,675 21,920 24,725 26,757
12 3,074 3,571 4,404 5,226 6,304 8,438 11,340 14,845 18,549 21,026 23,337 26,217 28,300
13 3,565 4,107 5,009 5,892 7,041 9,299 12,340 15,984 19,812 22,362 24,736 27,688 29,819
14 4,075 4,660 5,629 6,571 7,790 10,165 13,339 17,117 21,064 23,685 26,119 29,141 31,319
15 4,601 5,229 6,262 7,261 8,547 11,037 14,339 18,245 22,307 24,996 27,488 30,578 32,801
16 5,142 5,812 6,908 7,962 9,312 11,912 15,338 19,369 23,542 26,296 28,845 32,000 34,267
17 5,697 6,408 7,564 8,672 10,085 12,792 16,338 20,489 24,769 27,587 30,191 33,409 35,718
18 6,265 7,015 8,231 9,390 10,865 13,675 17,338 21,605 25,989 28,869 31,526 34,805 37,156
19 6,844 7,633 8,907 10,117 11,651 14,562 18,338 22,718 27,204 30,144 32,852 36,191 38,582
20 7,434 8,260 9,591 10,851 12,443 15,452 19,337 23,828 28,412 31,410 34,170 37,566 39,997
21 8,034 8,897 10,283 11,591 13,240 16,344 20,337 24,935 29,615 32,671 35,479 38,932 41,401
22 8,643 9,542 10,982 12,338 14,041 17,240 21,337 26,039 30,813 33,924 36,781 40,289 42,796
23 9,260 10,196 11,689 13,091 14,848 18,137 22,337 27,141 32,007 35,172 38,076 41,638 44,181
24 9,886 10,856 12,401 13,848 15,659 19,037 23,337 28,241 33,196 36,415 39,364 42,980 45,558
25 10,520 11,524 13,120 14,611 16,473 19,939 24,337 29,339 34,382 37,652 40,646 44,314 46,928
26 11,160 12,198 13,844 15,379 17,292 20,843 25,336 30,435 35,563 38,885 41,923 45,642 48,290
27 11,808 12,878 14,573 16,151 18,114 21,749 26,336 31,528 36,741 40,113 43,195 46,963 49,645
28 12,461 13,565 15,308 16,928 18,939 22,657 27,336 32,620 37,916 41,337 44,461 48,278 50,994
29 13,121 14,256 16,047 17,708 19,768 23,567 28,336 33,711 39,087 42,557 45,722 49,588 52,335
30 13,787 14,953 16,791 18,493 20,599 24,478 29,336 34,800 40,256 43,773 46,979 50,892 53,672
40 20,707 22,164 24,433 26,509 29,051 33,660 39,335 45,616 51,805 55,758 59,342 63,691 66,766
60 35,534 37,485 40,482 43,188 46,459 52,294 59,335 66,981 74,397 79,082 83,298 88,379 91,952
0.95
P[t15<1.753]=F(1.753) 0,8
0,375
P[tgl < t]=xxx
0,6
0,250
0,4
0,125
0,2
0,000 0,0
-3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50 -3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50
gl \ xxx 0,999 0,995 0,990 0,975 0,950 0,900 0,850 0,800 0,700 0,600 0,500
1 318,3 63,656 31,821 12,706 6,314 3,078 1,963 1,376 0,727 0,325 0,000
2 22,328 9,925 6,965 4,303 2,920 1,886 1,386 1,061 0,617 0,289 0,000
3 10,214 5,841 4,541 3,182 2,353 1,638 1,250 0,978 0,584 0,277 0,000
4 7,173 4,604 3,747 2,776 2,132 1,533 1,190 0,941 0,569 0,271 0,000
5 5,894 4,032 3,365 2,571 2,015 1,476 1,156 0,920 0,559 0,267 0,000
6 5,208 3,707 3,143 2,447 1,943 1,440 1,134 0,906 0,553 0,265 0,000
7 4,785 3,499 2,998 2,365 1,895 1,415 1,119 0,896 0,549 0,263 0,000
8 4,501 3,355 2,896 2,306 1,860 1,397 1,108 0,889 0,546 0,262 0,000
9 4,297 3,250 2,821 2,262 1,833 1,383 1,100 0,883 0,543 0,261 0,000
10 4,144 3,169 2,764 2,228 1,812 1,372 1,093 0,879 0,542 0,260 0,000
11 4,025 3,106 2,718 2,201 1,796 1,363 1,088 0,876 0,540 0,260 0,000
12 3,930 3,055 2,681 2,179 1,782 1,356 1,083 0,873 0,539 0,259 0,000
13 3,852 3,012 2,650 2,160 1,771 1,350 1,079 0,870 0,538 0,259 0,000
14 3,787 2,977 2,624 2,145 1,761 1,345 1,076 0,868 0,537 0,258 0,000
15 3,733 2,947 2,602 2,131 1,753 1,341 1,074 0,866 0,536 0,258 0,000
16 3,686 2,921 2,583 2,120 1,746 1,337 1,071 0,865 0,535 0,258 0,000
17 3,646 2,898 2,567 2,110 1,740 1,333 1,069 0,863 0,534 0,257 0,000
18 3,610 2,878 2,552 2,101 1,734 1,330 1,067 0,862 0,534 0,257 0,000
19 3,579 2,861 2,539 2,093 1,729 1,328 1,066 0,861 0,533 0,257 0,000
20 3,552 2,845 2,528 2,086 1,725 1,325 1,064 0,860 0,533 0,257 0,000
21 3,527 2,831 2,518 2,080 1,721 1,323 1,063 0,859 0,532 0,257 0,000
22 3,505 2,819 2,508 2,074 1,717 1,321 1,061 0,858 0,532 0,256 0,000
23 3,485 2,807 2,500 2,069 1,714 1,319 1,060 0,858 0,532 0,256 0,000
24 3,467 2,797 2,492 2,064 1,711 1,318 1,059 0,857 0,531 0,256 0,000
25 3,450 2,787 2,485 2,060 1,708 1,316 1,058 0,856 0,531 0,256 0,000
26 3,435 2,779 2,479 2,056 1,706 1,315 1,058 0,856 0,531 0,256 0,000
27 3,421 2,771 2,473 2,052 1,703 1,314 1,057 0,855 0,531 0,256 0,000
28 3,408 2,763 2,467 2,048 1,701 1,313 1,056 0,855 0,530 0,256 0,000
29 3,396 2,756 2,462 2,045 1,699 1,311 1,055 0,854 0,530 0,256 0,000
30 3,385 2,750 2,457 2,042 1,697 1,310 1,055 0,854 0,530 0,256 0,000
40 3,307 2,704 2,423 2,021 1,684 1,303 1,050 0,851 0,529 0,255 0,000
60 3,232 2,660 2,390 2,000 1,671 1,296 1,045 0,848 0,527 0,254 0,000
120 3,160 2,617 2,358 1,980 1,658 1,289 1,041 0,845 0,526 0,254 0,000
3,090 2,576 2,326 1,960 1,645 1,282 1,036 0,842 0,524 0,253 0,000
0.95
0,8
1,125
0,750
0,4
0,375
0,2
0.95
0,000 0,0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5