Short-Term Load Forecasting

1. INTRODUCTION
Accurate load forecasting models are essential for the planning and development of power
systems. The purchase, sale, production, and distribution of electrical energy depend on the
accurate forecasting of the demand patterns. Short-term load forecasting is used to determine the
capacity and the level of electrical energy provisioning to meet the expected demand in hourly,
daily or weekly basis whereas long term load forecasting is used to forecast it for longer duration
such as for coming year. Automatic generation control and cost-effective load distribution depend
on the accuracy and efficiency of short-term load forecasting.

2. OBJECTIVE
To forecast the one day ahead load-demand requirement for Chhattisgarh State.

3. SCOPE OF THE WORK

Researchers and practitioners have proposed a wide range of techniques to forecast short-term
electrical loads and demands. The techniques are mostly based on statistical and time-series
analysis, learning algorithms, or expert systems. Neural networks (NNs), fuzzy expert systems,
wavelet-based networks, or a combination of these methods are examples of expert systems that
have been investigated for short-term prediction in the literature.

4. PROBLEM DEFINITION
It is necessary to predict hourly loads as well as daily peak loads. Accurate tracking of the load by
the system generation at all times is a basic requirement in the operation of power systems and
must be accomplished for various time intervals. Since electricity cannot be stored efficiently in
large quantities, the amount generated at any given time must cover all of the demand from
consumers as well as grid losses.

5. PROPOSED WORK
Prediction of the load demand of next day for planning the most economic generation schedule.

6. METHODOLOGY
The forecasted load is compared with the actual load of the same day and average prediction error
is calculated for determining the prediction accuracy of method used for short-term load
forecasting.

7. EXPECTED OUTCOME
The predicted load should match the actual load demand of the same day as precisely as possible.

8. FUTURE SCOPE OF WORK

The error between the actual and predicted load can be further reduced by using advanced
algorithms and taking other minute factors into account.

9. REFERENCES
S.BARAKATI, A.GHARAVEISI, S.RAFIEI. “Short-term load forecasting using mixed lazy
learning method” Turk. J. Elec. Eng. & Comp. Sci. (2015) 23