PAUTA PRIMERA SOLEMNE

FMS 174 PROBABILIDADES Y ESTADÍSTICA

PRIMER SEMESTRE 2010

1.-
Ganancias Marca Clase Antes (A) Después (D) NA ND
0-5 2.5 8 9 8 9
5-10 7.5 10 14 18 23
10-15 12.5 20 30 38 53
15-20 17.5 10 15 48 68
20-25 22.5 7 9 55 77
Total 55 77

a) Se tiene la opción de 2 medidas de tendencia central: promedio o mediana

677.5 967.5
xA = = 12.318 ; xD = = 12.565
55 77
5 5
Me A = 10 + ( 27.5 − 18 ) ⋅ = 12.375 ; Me D = 10 + ( 38.5 − 23 ) ⋅ = 12.583
20 30

b)
10343.75 − 55 ⋅ 12.318 2
σA = = 6.028
55

14681.25 − 77 ⋅ 12.565 2
σB = = 5.726
77

6.028 5.726
CV A = = 0.489 CVB = = 0.456
12.318 12.565

c)
 55 ⋅ P  5
PA = 3 ⇒ 3 = 0 +  − 0  ⋅ ⇒ P = 8.727
 100  8

 77 ⋅ P  5
PA = 3 ⇒ 3 = 0 +  − 0⋅ ⇒ P = 7.01
 100  9
d)

n = 10
∑ x = 48.3
∑ y = 123
∑ x = 303.29
2

∑ y = 1685
2

∑ xy = 700.9
α = 4.930
β = 1.526

Por lo tanto r = 0.973

b)

P ( A / ECC ) ⋅ P ( ECC )
P ( ECC / A ) =
P ( A / ECC ) ⋅ P ( ECC ) + P ( A / ECO ) ⋅ P ( ECO ) + P ( A / ECP ) ⋅ P ( ECP )
0.75 ⋅ 0.40
= = 0.7018
0.4275

2.-

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X=x) 0.1 0.09 0.01 0.2 k 0.3 0.1

6
a) Si ∑ P( X = x ) = 1 , entonces:
x =0

P( X = 0 ) + P( X = 1 ) + P( X = 2 ) + P( X = 3 ) + P( X = 4 ) + P( X = 5 ) + P( X = 6 ) = 1
0.1 + 0.09 + 0.01 + 0.2 + k + 0.3 + 0.1 =1
0.8 + k =1
∴ k = 0.2

b)
6
P( X ≥ 3 ) = ∑ P( X = x ) = P( X = 3 ) + P( X = 4 ) + P( X = 5 ) + P( X = 6 )
x=3

= 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.1 = 0.8

∴ P ( X ≥ 3 ) = 0.2

c)
2
P( X ≤ 2 ) = ∑ P( X = x ) = P( X = 0 ) + P( X = 1 ) + P( X = 2 )
x =0

= 0.1 + 0.09 + 0.01 = 0.2

∴ P ( X ≤ 2 ) = 0.2

d)
6
E( X ) = ∑ x ⋅ P ( X = x ) = 0 ⋅ 0.1 + 1 ⋅ 0.09 + 2 ⋅ 0.01 + 3 ⋅ 0.2 + 4 ⋅ 0.2 + 5 ⋅ 0.3 + 6 ⋅ 0.1 = 3.61
x =0
.

Al aproximar el valor esperado a cuatro, se tiene que su probabilidad será:

 6
P( X ≥ 4 ) = ∑ P( X = x ) = P( X = 4 ) + P( X = 5 ) + P( X = 6 )
x=4

= 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.1 = 0.6

∴ P ( X ≥ 4 ) = 0.6

 4 ⋅ x 3 , si 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
3.- Si f ( x ) = 
0 , e .o .c .

1 1 1 1
x5 4
a) E ( X ) = ∫ x ⋅ f ( x ) dx = ∫ x ⋅ 4 ⋅ x dx = ∫ 4 ⋅ x dx = 4 ⋅
3 4
=
0 0 0 5 0 5
b) Si D .E .( X ) = σ = VAR( X ) = σ 2 y VAR( X ) = E ( X 2 ) − E ( X )2 , se tiene que:
1 1 1 1
x6 4 2
E ( X ) = ∫ x ⋅ f ( x ) dx = ∫ x ⋅ 4 ⋅ x dx = ∫ 4 ⋅ x dx = 4 ⋅
2 2 2 3
= = 5

0 0 0 6 0 6 3
2
2 4 2 16 2
VAR( X ) = E ( X 2 ) − E ( X )2 = −  = − =
3 5 3 25 75
2
∴ VAR( X ) =
75
2 6
Finalmente, σ = VAR( X ) = =
75 15

4.- Con X: Salarios de una empresa.

X ~ N ( µ , σ 2 ) , de acuerdo a los valores del enunciado X ~ N (30, 16) . Además los

intervalos de salarios quedan expresados de las siguientes formas:

• Salario Bajo: X < 27 U.M.

• Salario Medio: 27 ≤ X ≤ 33 U.M.
• Salario Alto: X > 33 U.M.

a) Luego los porcentajes asociados a los intervalos de salarios son:

 X − 30 27 − 30 
• P ( X < 27 ) = P  <  = P ( Z < −0.75 ) = Φ ( −0.75 ) = 0.22663
 4 4 
El porcentaje de salarios bajos corresponde a un 22,663%.
  27 − 30 X − 30 33 − 30 
P ( 27 ≤ X < 33 ) = P  ≤ < =
 4 4 4 
• P ( −0.75 ≤ Z ≤ 0.75 ) = Φ ( 0.75 ) − Φ ( −0.75 )
= 0.77337 − 0.22663
= 0.54674
El porcentaje de salarios medios corresponde a un 54,674%.

 X − 30 33 − 30 
P ( X > 33 ) = P  >  = P ( Z > 0.75 ) = 1 − P ( Z ≤ 0.75 ) = 1 − Φ ( 0.75 )
 4 4 
= 1 − 0.77337
= 0.22663

Por último el porcentaje de salarios altos corresponde a un 22,663%.

b) De acuerdo a la condición del problema la probabilidad a calcular es:

P ( X > 25 ∧ X < 27 ) P ( 25 < X < 27 )

P ( X > 25 X < 27 ) = =
P ( X < 27 ) P ( X < 27 )
Con:

P ( 25 < X < 27 ) = P ( −1.25 < Z < −0.75 ) = Φ ( −0.75 ) − Φ ( −1.25 ) =

0.22663 − 0.10565 = 0.12098

P ( 25 < X < 27 ) 0.12098

⇒ P ( X > 25 X < 27 ) = = = 0.53382
P ( X < 27 ) 0.22663

Finalmente el porcentaje buscado es de un 53.382%.