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Intrinsic 本身的价值/ theoretical Futures price = Spot price*(1+(r-d)^T-t

= 1146 * (1+(0.05-0.023))^0.25
= 1153.66

(r-d) = cost-of-carry/ basis risk


= positive (r>d), futures > spot, contango 正价差
= negative (r<d) futures < spot, backwardation
Price discovery tool
Market futures price (actual) = 1200.00
Overpriced = expect price to decrease = Sell

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