Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Eurasia OECD
Eurasia Latin
Europe America 5% 4%
1 370 8%
1 710 China Africa
8%
United 4 060 Japan
2 240 440
States Middle 1 050 Middle 10%
East East
Southeast 65%
Brazil 1 000
1 540 Asia
480 1 030
Africa India
Non-OECD
Asia
Source: IEA,2013
2nd Asian Energy Modelling Workshop on Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Singapore, July 2015 3
4
4000
5000 ▫ 105% during 1971 –
3500
2015
1000
1000
500
0 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Energy productivity GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)
7
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
8
Energy trade
9
10
20
Provided directly by
forestry and
15
agriculture e.g.,
10 firewood, wood chips
5
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Biofuels Geothermal Hydro Solar and wind
11
Philippines Malaysia
1000 ▫ Biofuels energy:
Myanmar
Indonesia, Thailand
Malaysia and Viet Nam
500 ▫ Solar and wind energy:
Indonesia Thailand and
0 Philippines
Cambodia
12
• What drives growth in Global energy use decomposition between 2000 and
energy use? 2015
• With latest data from IEA 1.8
1.64
and ADB Input-Output 1.6
tables, we decompose 1.41
1.4
increase in global energy
1.2
use into three factors: 1.20
1
▫ Activity effect : 64% 0.8 0.72
Energy trade
• Data: UNCTAD
• Trade of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) in thousands of US dollars,
including:
▫ Coal, coke and briquettes
▫ Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
▫ Gas, natural and manufactured
▫ Electric current
• Regional concentration of energy trade
▫ Destinations of energy exports from ASEAN: mostly Asia-Pacific region
▫ Home economies of energy exports to ASEAN: Middle East & Asia-Pacific region
18
Energy trade
• Who buys energy
products from
ASEAN?
▫ Japan
▫ China
▫ Australia
▫ South Korea
▫ Hong Kong
▫ India
▫ Taiwan
▫ United States
▫ New Zealand
▫ Bangladesh
19
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Biofuels Geothermal Hydro Solar and wind
23
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan
Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
24
Energy trade
• Who buys energy
products from
Central Asia?
▫ Italy
▫ China
▫ Ukraine
▫ Switzerland
▫ Netherlands
▫ France
▫ Russia
▫ Romania
▫ Austria
▫ Canada
▫ Israel
▫ Spain
25
Conclusions
• Development in renewables has not significantly contributed to improving
energy security so far
Policy implications
• Countries need to enhance the role of renewables in long term energy strategy
• Central Asia faces serious infrastructure bottleneck to realize energy bonus due to
lack of maritime transport facilities
Thank you!
Contact:
Dr. Liu Yang esiyl@nus.edu.sg
Dr. Zhong Sheng esizs@nus.edu.sg
Dr. Dina Azhgaliyeva esida@nus.edu.sg