Case study: Benefiting from demography,

migration and diversity in the

Northwest RDA Northwest

As a result of the Experian research, the Northwest

Regional Development Agency (NWDA) now has
a comprehensive evidence base on past and future
trends in demography, migration and diversity, and the
challenges and opportunities they present, to underpin
the forthcoming Integrated Regional Strategy for the
Northwest.

Challenge
The size and make-up of the
Northwest’s population is changing
and this will have implications for
the size and capability of the region’s
workforce and the customer base for
businesses, infrastructure and public
services. It is therefore important
that the Northwest harnesses the
potential that diversity brings, while
mitigating the threat of disadvantage
and discrimination, if it is to improve
its economic performance and close
the ‘output gap’ that exists between
regional performance and that across
the English regions.
The NWDA – currently leading
the economic development and
regeneration of England’s Northwest
– required a review of demography,
migration and diversity in the region,
analysis of how trends might change,
and insight into the effects this might
have.The research complements the
NWDA’s own forecasting process and
was intended to inform and benefit the
future Integrated Regional Strategy for
the Northwest, due in 2010.
Solution
Our approach was to provide the
NWDA with a robust evidence base
detailing historic and future trends,
analysis of the opportunities and
challenges these trends present, and
recommendations for the appropriate
policy responses.
To determine range of policy options
available, the Experian team carried
out a comprehensive study of the
implications of demographic change in
the region.
Our methodology combined a
comprehensive analysis of secondary
data sources coupled with our long-
standing UK forecasting expertise in
order to identify five key trends that
significantly impact the region, namely:
the ageing of the Northwest population;
internal migration flows; international
migration; growing cultural diversity;
and inequality of opportunity.
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More detailed scenario modelling of Results

the key trends provided the NWDA As well as the datasets of specific
“10/10. The easiest with insight into policy specific areas, and relevant trends identified, the
and smoothest project for example dependency ratios, the
impact of inequality of opportunity on
final research outputs included a
written report detailing migration,
I have ever done… GVA, and forecast rates of internal demographic and diversity trends in
The final reports and international in-migration, in the
Northwest and its sub-regions.
the recent past and in the future, the
evidence for this, the opportunities and
are ideal, clear and challenges, and specific and detailed
uncomplicated.” So that the research was
comprehensive and locally relevant,
policy response in each target area.

we combined literature reviews, data The findings from the research were
Emma Charnock analysis and economic modelling also presented to a wide array of
Information Manager with a comprehensive consultation stakeholders at the Northwest’s
process.This comprised stakeholder Research Conference in April 2008.
NWDA
consultations and a policy workshop,
to discuss areas where the public To view the final report please visit:
sector should intervene, the form http://www.nwriu.co.uk/
this response should take and the researchprogramme/documents/
stakeholders that should be taking the NWDA_Demographics_etc_-_Final_
lead. report_-_V3.pdf

0.50
Aged dependency rates Projected aged
dependency ratios Equalisation
0.45 of SPA

0.40 Increase in
the SPA to
66
0.35

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Source: Experian, 2007

Historical and forecast aged dependency ratios in the Northwest

© Experian 2008.

For further information please The word “EXPERIAN” and

the graphical device are trade
contact Heather Wells: marks of Experian and/or its
associated companies and
may be registered in the EU,
T 44 (0) 207 746 8242 USA and other countries. The
graphical device is a registered
heather.wells@uk.experian .com Community design in the EU.

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