3.

MAIN FACTORS
EXPLAINING THE MODAL SPLIT
3.1 General
The modal split of a country is the summation of the individual decisions made by the
transport users under the influence of a widespread variety of circumstances. In this
chapter, it is intended to show the range of influencing factors, as a compilation of
possible contributions to modal split caused by specific circumstances.

The following compilation includes the view on both passenger and freight transport,
because they use nearly the same transport infrastructure which has been developed
under identical country-specific geographic, historical, economic and political conditions.
It should be noted that influence criteria may have very different significance with regard
to the different modes within the transport sector.

We can separate factors influencing modal split into factors that effect transport supply
directly (infrastructure and operation) and factors that influence volume and quality of
transport requirements. Indirect effects via the long-term economic relationship between
supply and demand will not be considered here.

Most of the fields of conditions show effects on both sides. When we consider the
defined background to the transport requirements against the available transport supply
specific to a country or a region, the modal split can be seen as the result of the
summation of the individual decisions of the transport system users (see figure 9).

We can describe the transport supply by the following factors:

• infrastructure, expressed by means of network length (total length of transport mode

system), network quality (network density, number and availability of network access
– e.g. port, railway station, airport, highway access – intramodal and intermodal
integration), network capacity, network flexibility (possibility of supplementing or
adapting network to match changes in requirement) and infrastructure maintenance;
• service, expressed by means of service capacity (total volume and maximum volume
per unit), service frequency (availability) transport quality (passenger comfort,
treatment of goods), technical functionality (reliability, standardisation of access),
information about services and complementary services;
• costs, expressed by means of per trip service costs and additional costs not always
realized by the user (e.g. access costs, system administration).

The factors describing transport requirements can be divided into the two following:

• transport quantity requirements, expressed by means of transport volume (number of

passengers, total volume of goods, maximum volume per unit), trip characteristics
(trip length, travel time, journey speed) and service characteristics (service frequency
and available disposition time);
• transport quality requirements, expressed by means of transport conditions (level of
service, journey time reliability, passenger comfort and facilities, special requirements
for handling goods), transport flexibility (location and timing) and transport costs
(maximum trip costs and associated costs to the user/customer).
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 s o c io -
g e o g r a p h ic a l
e c o n o m ic a l
c o n d it io n s
c o n d it io n s

p o lit ic a l /
t e c h n o lo g ic a l
a d m in is t r a t iv e
c o n d it io n s
c o n d it io n s

t r a n s p o r t s u p p ly tra n s p o rt
( in f r a s t r u c t u r e , s e r v ic e r e q u ir e m e n ts
c o s t a n d p ric e ) ( q u a n t i t y , q u a l it y )

in d iv id u a l
d e c is io n s

m o d a l s p lit

Figure 9 - Generation Process of Modal Split

3.2 Influencing Factors

Both transport requirements and transport supply are influenced by factors that are
caused by geographical, economical and socio-economic conditions, political and
administrative conditions and the state-of-the-art in transport technology. Of course,
some factors may be assigned to several fields; some assignment may be open to
debate.

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 Table 1 - Geographical Conditions which Influence Modal Split
Influencing Factors
Location Suitable conditions that make it
and easier and cheaper to construct
topography physical infra-structure for particularhistorical respect; e.g. problems in building
transport modes:
• land form: flat or mountainous
• general location: island, at coast transport and overseas transport, etc.
or interior continental
• existence of inland waterways
• subsoil conditions
(e.g. marshy ground in fluvial
plains)
State area Average distances for inland
transport
Raw Demand for raw material transport
material
deposit
Availability and cost of construction
material for transport infrastructure
Population Total population
Spatial Distribution of population within the
structure country
Distribution of industry and
commerce within the country
Number and area of major
accumulations of industry,
commerce and population
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Effects
Fundamental to the transport modes role
within transport system, especially in a
railways in mountainous areas; advantages
of air transport in countries with difficult
access conditions; waterways and coastal
location needed for inland waterway
Competitiveness of transport modes may
also be influenced by the directness and
amenity offered due to topographical and
location conditions.
Long average distances favour transport
modes which have low costs for long
distance transport (railway and inland
waterway transport and coastal ship-ping) or
offer high-speed-transport (air transport).
Raw material transport may cause great
demand for heavy rail and inland waterway
transport.
Especially in a historical respect the
availability of raw material favoured the
development of a railway system.
Basic factor for efficiency of mass public and
freight transport systems
Population distribution influences
effectiveness and efficiency of public
transport systems because of the possibility
to combine traffic streams (e.g. possibility of
building up an efficient high-speed railway
system between major urban regions). In
general, high concentration of transport
quantity favours mass transit systems, low
concentration favours private transport esp.
road transport.
 Table 2 - Socio-economic Conditions which Influence Modal Split

Influencing Factors Effects

Prosperity Ability to build up, maintain Precondition especially for transport modes
(national and operate expensive requiring a high volume of public and private
economic transport systems investment for building up, maintenance and
health) running of transport infrastructure

General transport demand Basic precondition for the amount of freight

transport

Indirect effects on other economic, socio-

economic and technological conditions.

Sectoral Relative amount of With respect to transport costs (general

economic • high weight / low value amount and relative to the freight value)
structure transport high-weight / low value transport favours
(rate of mining / • low weight / high value share of rail and waterway transport while
agriculture / transport low weight / high value transport favours air
manufacturing / and road transport.
service)
Amount of business travel As service sector generates the highest rate
of business travel, economies with main
emphasis on service sector favour high-
speed and high comfort standard- transport
modes (especially air transport; high-speed-
rail, if available)
Production Freight quantity per Just-in-time-delivery and product-
method available transport time customisation creates demand for travel-
time-optimised transport and diversified
goods distribution. This is favourable for
road transport in comparison with rail and
waterway transport.
Speed of Transport system flexibility Changes in transport
economic and adaptability to react to demand create
growth and changes in transport disadvantage for transport
sectoral change demand (amount, spatial modes which are not able to
structure, customer react quickly due to
requirements) geographical conditions
(waterway transport) or high
cost for construction of
infrastructure and long-
lasting planning and
construction procedures
(e.g. public transport in fast-
growing metropolitan areas)

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Public Personal disposable
income income: financial resources
and for travel expenditure with
affluence consequences to:
• trip distances for
commuting
• purpose for travelling,
esp. in leisure time
• choice of transport
mode
• car accessibility rate
Employment rate and
structure with effect to:
• average acceptable trip
length for commuting
• choice of optimal
residence
Labour Working hours
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With rising disposable income share of travel
purposes changes. Leisure time activities show
greater variety of spatial and timing requirements,
which is more suited to private transport.
Situation at labour market and changes in
employment structure (e.g. rate of both-in-
workforce-couples) may require acceptance of
long-distance trips for commuting because of the
difficulty to find optimal residence. Public transport
systems with central-oriented alignment may not fit
to the diversified requirements.
Disposable time for leisure time activities create
transport demand, which is more, suited to private
transport.
 Table 3 - Political and Administrative Conditions which Influence Modal Split

Influencing Factors Effects

Stability of Ability to realise and run Complex structures (e.g. railway system - also in
political system complex structures historic context; air traffic control) need a consistent
and political and administrative background to work
administration Investment culture efficiently.

Stability is also a precondition for intermodal

integration, which requires a lot of planning, and co-
ordination effort.

In general, stability is an important factor in

business location and influences investment in
transport systems.
Organisation of Responsibility, Ownership of transport system is an important
transport competence and quality boundary condition to exert influence on investment
system management of transport and operating decisions by the government (see
concerning planning below).
planning, Clear and well-established planning procedures
construction Responsibility, lead to appropriate and efficient infrastructures and
and operation competence and quality help to avoid poor design of transport systems.
management of transport
system operation

Ownership of transport
system

Governmental influence on
decisions of transport
companies
Transport policy Infrastructure provision, Transport policies may have both short-term
investment and project influence (e.g. restrictions, tolls, taxes) and long-
financing term influence (e.g. by infrastructure investment or
market policies). The objective of transport policies
Subsidy of transport depends on which transport mode is favoured.
modes

Taxation

Levying of tolls and

charges

Effects of ecological policy

(e.g. traffic restrictions,
ecological taxes)

Effects of market policy

(e.g. market entry control,
price control)

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Consideration Integrated view of traffic In related policy fields conditions are created to
and integration and influence the transport demand. Depending on the
of inter-actions • land use development policy objectives, particular transport modes (e.g.
to other fields • economic policy railway transport, air transport) may be favoured.
• social policy

Political Flexibility to change Awareness about the negative impacts of transport

awareness behaviour patterns in modes and education about the potential for
mobility personal contributions to solving the problems may
effect choice of transport mode.

Table 4 - Transport Technology Conditions which Influence Modal Split

Influencing Factors Effects

Level of Availability of modern State-of-the-art transport technology may
development of transport technology improve competitiveness of a transport mode
transport affecting: compared to others. It may lead to working out
technology and • travel time the inherent-in-the-system-advantages and
implementation • transport costs minimise disadvantages, helping to approach
(including ITS) • transport quality an optimal use of the available transport
(comfort) system including a best possible modal
Ability to optimise transport division of labour while minimising negative
performance in: impacts.

• modal diversion
• intramodal integration
• intermodal integration
• logistics
International Existence of international Elimination of system-related modal
standard standards disadvantages due to differences in
technological and operational standards
Adaptation of the national (e.g. railway system).
transport system to the
international standard

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