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Stocks & Commodities V. 18:5 (38-46): Designing A Money Management Strategy by Ray Overholser, O.D.
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Designing A Money
Management Strategy
Using Volatility-Based Stops And The Kelly Criterion
Sorting out the criteria for a coherent money management entry, representing twice the standard deviation of $2 per
plan is a complex, detailed job. Using a spreadsheet to keep share. Setting the stop at this $4 per share risk acts as a useful
track of the logic helps ensure nothing has been omitted. proxy of the stock’s recent two-week normal price fluctua-
tions. A stop-loss placed at this level is now less likely to
by Ray Overholser, O.D. suffer whipsaw losses solely because of a stock’s normal
price volatility.
ith a little planning, you can de- My algorithm allows a portfolio to grow at an above-
velop a logically sound money average rate of return while consistently controlling risk. You
DOMINICK RAPONE
W = Historical winning percentage of a trading losing trade. I use a multiple of 80% of the calculated Kelly
system value, because the original value often results in unaccept-
R = Ratio of average winning amount to average ably large drawdowns.
loss amount In addition, my position sizing algorithm uses the lesser
value of 0.25 or 80% of the Kelly value. If the Kelly value is
3 Maximum total risk to portfolio is limited to 10% of greater than or equal to 31.25%, then I limit it to 25%. If the
closed equity and 80% of the Kelly value multiplied by Kelly value is less than 31.25%, then multiplying by 0.80 will
the amount of open position profits. The term closed result in a maximum allocation percentage below 25%.
equity is the starting trading capital plus all closed Thus, no more than 25% of open position profits is ever
position profits and losses. risked on additional positions. The modified Kelly value is
then divided by the maximum number of positions allowed
I risk open position profits more aggressively than closed open simultaneously less the number of positions currently
equity. This is determined by using the Kelly criterion: open. This result gives the percentage of open profits to risk
Percent to risk per trade = (winning %) - [(1-winning %)/R], on the next trade.
where R = Average winning trade divided by the average
Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.
Stocks & Commodities V. 18:5 (38-46): Designing A Money Management Strategy by Ray Overholser, O.D.
4 Transaction costs divided by expected profit limited to of experiencing a decrease in equity of 20% or more per year.
20% or less, allowing for a 10% slippage factor.
5 Maximum allowable loss per month limited to 5% of 13 The volatility stop-loss is determined by using the value
previous month’s closed equity. of a Bollinger Band with a two–standard deviation
interval over a 14-day lookback period.
6 Percent risk per trade reduced to 1% if closed equity is
down 5% to 10%.
7 Percent risk per trade reduced to 1% if closed equity is The volatility stop–based method is a
down 10% to 15%. practical compromise between the desire to
8 Percent risk per trade reduced to 3/4% if closed equity is allocate risk capital to achieve optimal
down 15%. growth and the essential need to protect
9 Percent risk per trade reduced to 0.5% if closed equity trading capital from the risk of ruin.
is down more than 15%.
HOW THE SPREADSHEET MODEL WORKS
There are other limitations hardwired into the spreadsheet:
First, enter the nine key variables in the Trader-Defined
Criteria (Figure 1) section of the spreadsheet. These inputs
10 Total cost of all positions not to exceed the amount of
help define each individual trader’s risk tolerance and level
closed equity. This prevents margin trading.
of aggressiveness in
11 All stock trades in round lots (that is, 100-share managing trading capi- TRADING POSITION SIZE ALGORITHM
multiples). tal. The spreadsheet it- Annual (%) std. dev. of returns 12
12 A percentage of the initial available equity is set self is available at the Current closed equity 277,157
Total open position dollars at risk 7,613
STOCKS & COMMODI- Last month’s closing equity 277,157
aside in an interest-bearing account to deleverage the TIES Website. See Beginning potential trading capital 360,000
trading portfolio to a specific level of risk. This risk sidebars, “Excel code” Percentage of beginning capital to risk 83.33
level is calculated using the technique presented by and “How to use the Actual starting trading capital 300,000
Current trading capital 271,542
Perry J. Kaufman in Smarter Trading. algorithm.” Current number of trades open 4
Next, enter 16 vari- Initial stop loss ($$) per share 12.750
Kaufman suggests a four-step procedure for deleveraging ables in the Trading Entry price per share 75.000
Expected percentage gain per trade 0.24
a trading account to achieve the desired level of risk. Step 1 position size algorithm
Transaction commission cost 32.50
involves determination of the historical trading system risk section of the spread- 80% of system’s historical Kelly 0.25
level. Step 2 requires the trader to subjectively choose an sheet (Figure 2). This or 25%, whichever is less 0.25
acceptable system risk level. Step 3 entails the determination may seem like a lot, Total purchase price of all positions 88,100
Maximum tolerable annual drawdown 20
of the amount of capital to be traded based on the risk level but after you use it Number of shares to trade 100
set by the trader in step 2. Finally, step 4 involves the once, many of the val-
FIGURE 2: CURRENT SITUATION. This second set of
determination of an appropriate stop-loss level. In my case, ues are saved and re- inputs reflects the situation facing the trader. It responds
the trading account is deleveraged, so there is a 2.5% chance used. For subscribers, to both open and closed equity positions.
500,000 500,000
FIXED SHARE METHOD VOLATILITY-STOP METHOD
EQUITY
EQUITY
400,000 400,000
300,000 300,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
TRADE TRADE
FIGURE 5: POSITIVE EXPECTANCY. Here, a fixed-share money management system FIGURE 6: VOLATILITY-ADJUSTED STOP. Using the same winning trading system used
produces steady growth using a winning trading system. However, compare this to Figure in Figure 5, the volatility-adjusted money management system produces far better equity
6, and you’ll find some surprising results. growth.
300,000 300,000
VOLATILITY-STOP METHOD FIXED SHARE METHOD
290,000 290,000
280,000 280,000
270,000 270,000
260,000 260,000
EQUITY
EQUITY
250,000 250,000
240,000 240,000
230,000 230,000
220,000 220,000
210,000 210,000
200,000 200,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
TRADE TRADE
FIGURE 7: NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY. A losing system doesn’t tap out the trader with FIGURE 8: FIXED SHARE. Here, a losing system traded with a fixed-share money
Overholser’s approach because the “shares to trade” goes to zero as losses continue. management system eventually taps out. See Figure 7 for the comparable result using a
volatility-adjusted approach.
CONCLUSION REFERENCES
The volatility-adjusted position-sizing method is useful Kaufman, Perry J. [1995]. Smarter Trading: Improving Per-
because it helps to achieve two important goals: first, to formance In Changing Markets, McGraw-Hill Publish-
roughly equalize the risk between independent trades, and ing.
second, to allow each position an equal weighting in the Tharp, Van K. [1997]. Special Report On Money Manage-
quest for optimal return on trading capital. This methodol- ment, International Institute of Trading Mastery.
ogy gives each position the same chance of adding profit to _____ [1999]. Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom,
a trading portfolio in contrast to the fixed-share methodol- McGraw-Hill Publishing.
ogy in which the returns generated by individual trade Vince, Ralph [1995]. Portfolio Management Formulas:
positions fluctuate greatly. Mathematical Trading Methods For The Futures, Op-
The volatility stop–based method is a practical compro- tions, And Stock Markets, John Wiley & Sons.
mise between the desire to allocate risk capital to achieve
†See Traders’ Glossary for definitions S&C
optimal growth and the essential need to protect trading
capital from the risk of ruin. The adage “No pay, no play”
is an apt reminder of the importance of a good money
management strategy. Those traders implementing such
strategies will have a distinct edge over their less sophisti-
cated counterparts.
and more!
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