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Project Report On

AGRA - LUCKNOW EXPRESSWAY


Expressway Total Distance 302 km

(Agra Link Road 2.634km And Lucknow Link Road 9.688km)

A Thesis Submitted

In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirement For the Degree of

Bachelor of Technology

In

Civil Engineering

Submitted By:

Shivam Srivastav 1230900049

Shivam Srivastava 1230900050

Piyush Prabhat 1230900038

Devnath 1230900021

Harsh Verma 1230900025

Manish Yadav 1230900030

Under the supervision of

Vikrant Goswami

Asst. Professor

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING


Raj Kumar Goel Engineering College, Pilakhuwa Hapur (UP)
Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Technical University, Lucknow (UP), India
April, 2016

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UNDERTAKING

We declare that the work presented in this thesis entitled “AGRA-LUCKNOW


EXPRESSWAY”, submitted to the Department of Civil Engineering, Raj Kumar Goel
Engineering College, Pilkhuwa, Hapur for the award of the Bachelor of Technology degree
in Civil Engineering from Dr. A. P. J. Abdul Kalam Technical University, Lucknow Uttar
Pradesh is our original work. The contents of the thesis do not form the basis for the award of
any other degree to the candidate or to anybody else from this or any other
University/Institution. Further, we have not plagiarized or submitted the same work for the
award of any other degree. In case this undertaking is found incorrect, we accept that our
degree may unconditionally be withdrawn.

S. No. Name Univ. Roll No. Signature

1 Shivam Srivastav 1230900049

2 Shivam Srivastava 1230900050

3 Harsh Verma 1230900025

4 Piyush Prabhat 1230900038

5 Devnath 1230900021

6 Manish Yadav 1230900030

Date : April 27, 2016


RKGEC, Pilkhuwa, Hapur

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CERTIFICATE

Certified that Shivam Srivastav (1230900049), Shivam Srivastava (1230900050), Harsh


Verma (1230900025), Piyush Prabhat (1230900038), Devnath (1230900021), Manish
Yadav (1230900030), has carried out the project work presented in this thesis entitled
“AGRA-LUCKNOW EXPRESSWAY” for the award of Bachelor of Technology in Civil
Engineering from from Dr. A. P. J. Abdul Kalam Technical University, Lucknow, Uttar
Pradesh under my supervision. The thesis embodies results of original work, and studies are
carried out by the student himself and the contents of the thesis do not form the basis for the
award of any other degree to the candidate or to anybody else from this or any other
University/Institution.

(Vikrant Goswami)
Astt. Professor
Dept. of Civil Engg.
Raj Kumar Goel Engineering College,
Pilkhuwa, Hapur, UP, INDIA
Date : 27/04/2016

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We all need support and guidance in every walk of our life. But for this we must not forget to
express our gratitude to those who have provided us with their support and guidance and are
always there to help us.

First of all we would like to express our gratitude to our supervisor, Mr. Vikrant Goswami,
Asst. Prof. of department of civil engineering, RKGEC Hapur for providing us the
opportunity of doing this important project under his guidance and sharing his experience and
knowledge with us. We would also like to express our sincere gratitude and thanks to our
HOD Prof. Mahendra Parsad for his support and guidance.

We would also like to convey our sincere thanks to all the faculty members of civil
engineering department for being supportive. Their support and guidance, throughout the
project is of great impotence and is really appreciated.

Shivam Srivastav 1230900049

Shivam Srivastava 1230900050

Harsh Verma 1230900025

Piyush Prabhat 1230900038

Devnath 1230900021

Manish Yadav 1230900030

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Content
Description Pages No

i. Undertaking....................................................................................................................2
ii. Certificate.......................................................................................................................3
iii. Acknowledgement..........................................................................................................4
iv. Contents..........................................................................................................................5
v. Abstract..........................................................................................................................7
vi. Abbreviation.................................................................................................................11
vii. List of Table.................................................................................................................12
viii. List of Figure................................................................................................................13

Chapter 1 : Introduction..................................................................................................14-20

1.1 Project Background.....................................................................................14


1.2 Scope of Service..........................................................................................15
1.3 Key Traffic Study Finding..........................................................................15
1.4 Key Engineering Survey Finding................................................................17
1.5 Design Proposals.........................................................................................17
1.6 Initial Environmental Impact Assessment..................................................19
1.7 Social Assessment.......................................................................................20
1.8 Financial Evolution.....................................................................................20

Chapter 2 : Project Description.......................................................................................21-24

2.1 Review of Concept Report..........................................................................21


2.2 Project Area................................................................................................21
2.3 Major Intersection.......................................................................................24

Chapter 3 : Methodology and Design Standards.........................................................25 - 40

3.1 General........................................................................................................25
3.2 Design Basis...............................................................................................25
3.3 Collection and review of earlier report.......................................................25
3.4 Socio-Economic Profile..............................................................................26
3.5 Traffic Survey, Analysis and Projection.....................................................26
3.6 Engineering Surveys and Investigation......................................................26
3.7 Traffic Design.............................................................................................30
3.8 Engineering Design.....................................................................................31
3.9 Cross Fall...................................................................................................36
3.10 Roadway Width at Cross-Drainage Structure...........................................36
3.11 Environmental and Social Screening........................................................40

Chapter 4 : Traffic Survey and Analysis.....................................................................42 - 79

4.1 Traffic Surveys...........................................................................................42


4.2 Classified Traffic Volume Counts..............................................................44
4.3 Origin-Destination Survey.........................................................................45

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4.4 Analysis of survey data..............................................................................45
4.5 Estimation of Traffic growth rates by Elasticity Method...........................64
4.6 Traffic Forecasting Methodology...............................................................64
4.7 Project Influence Area................................................................................65
4.8 Growth of Registered Vehicles in Project Influence area..........................65
4.9 Economic Growth of the States and All-India...........................................66
4.10 Forecasted Traffic Total.............................................................................68

Chapter 5 : Cost Estimates..............................................................................................80 -83

5.1 Methodology...............................................................................................80
5.2 Quantification of Items/Quantities..............................................................80
5.3 Specifications..............................................................................................82
5.4 Cost Estimate..............................................................................................83

Chapter 6 : Financial Analysis.......................................................................................84 - 86

6.1 Project Financials......................................................................................84


6.2 Key Assumptions.......................................................................................84
6.3 Land Cost...................................................................................................85
6.4 Funding......................................................................................................86
6.5 Financial Indicators...................................................................................86

Chapter 7 : References...........................................................................................................87

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ABSTRACT
We have undertaken the project of “Lucknow -Agra expressway” which passes through
Agra, Firozabad, Etawah, Manpuri, Kannuj, Unnao, Lucknow cities.

The expressway under construction is a 6- lane plain cement concrete road which has a
provision to expanded to 8- lanes in future. The typical cross-section is shown in fig-2. We
have carried out work on Methodology, Traffic Survey, Cost Estimate, Financial Analysis.

The project of expressway is scheduled for 1/04/2014 to 31/03/2017

In this project we have visted the site of construction many times and has used the
information provided. In the project report prepared by MORT&H and which as has available
on the internet.

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Location Map

Fig 1

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Cross-section of Pavement

Fig 2

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L – Section of Road

Fig 3

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Abbreviation

UPEIDA Uttar Pradesh Expressways Industrial Development Authority


PPP Public Private Partnership model
ROW Right of Way
TOR Terms of Reference
ADT Average Daily Traffic
AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic
PCI Per Capital Income
NSDP Net state domestic product
GDP Gross Domestic Product
DGPS Differential Global Positioning System
CBR California Bearing Ratio
VDF Visual Data Format
MSA Multiple Shear Angle/Meridian Stress Assessment
BC Bituminous Concrete
DBM Dense Bound Macadam
WMM Wet Mix Macadam
GSB Granular Sub Base
PQC Pavement Quality Concrete
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
IRR Internal Rate of Return
MORT & H Ministry of Roads Transport & Highways
EPC Energy performance certificate
IDC Intangible drilling costs
WDV Written Down Value
E-IRR Equity - Internal Rate of Return
SLM Straight Line Method
P-IRR Project - Internal Rate of Return

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List Of Tables

Table No Title Page No


1.1 Summary of AADT (2012-2013)..............................................................................16
1.2 Traffic Estimated for Future Years...........................................................................17
1.3 Summary of MSA adopted.......................................................................................18
1.4 Flexible Pavement Composition for New Construction...........................................19
1.5 Flexible Pavement for Service Roads.......................................................................19
1.6 Pavement Composition for Rigid Pavement.............................................................19
3.1 Summary of Land use along the Link Road...............................................................28
3.2 Summary of Pavement Condition for Fatehabad to Firozabad Link Road...............29
3.3 Equivalency Factor....................................................................................................31
3.4 Free Flow Speed........................................................................................................31
3.5 Indicative Design Standards for Main Carriageway.................................................33
3.6 Geometric Design Standards for Interchange Elements...........................................34
3.7 Design Speed.............................................................................................................34
3.8 Safe Stopping Sight Distance....................................................................................35
3.9 Radius of Horizontal Curve......................................................................................35
4.1 Traffic Survey Schedule........................................................................................................43
4.2 PCU Factors adopted for the study (IRC 64-1990)................................................................47
4.3 Average Daily Traffic at Various Traffic Locations..............................................................48
4.4 Peak hour on Various Count Stations........................................................................53
4.5 Total Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations............................................................58
4.6 Tollable Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations.......................................................58
4.7 Seasonal Correction Factors...................................................................................................63
4.8 Section wise AADT................................................................................................................64
4.9 Growth of Vehicle Registration in Uttar Pradesh...................................................................66
4.10 Growth of Vehicle Registration in Delhi................................................................................67
4.11 Growth of Vehicle Registration of Trucks (All India)...........................................................67
4.12 Growth in Economic Indices of Uttar Pradesh State (at 2004-05 Prices)..............................68
4.13 Growth in Economic Indices of Delhi at 2004-05 Prices......................................................68
4.14 Growth in Economic Indices of All India at 2004-05 Prices.................................................68
4.15 Details of Alternate Road via NH-2, NH-91 & SH-40 and Project Road (Expressway).......70
4.16 Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Alternate Road...........................................................70
4.17 Details of Existing Routes and Project Road.........................................................................73
4.18 Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway).........73
5.1 Project Cost................................................................................................................82
5.2 Summary of rates for major construction works........................................................83
5.3 Summary of Costs......................................................................................................84
6.1 Key Assumptions.......................................................................................................85
6.2 Taxation......................................................................................................................86
6.3 Land Cost...................................................................................................................86
6.4 Funding...................................................................................................................................87

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List of Figures

Figure No Title Page No

Figure 1 Road Map.............................................................................................................................8


Figure 2 Cross-section........................................................................................................................9
Figure 3 L-section.............................................................................................................................10
Figure 2.1: Alignment of Agra – Lucknow Expressway.....................................................................22
Figure 3.1: Method for attaining super-elevation.....................................................................36
Figure 4.1 Traffic Survey Location Map....................................... ........................................44
Figure 4.2 Daily variation of Traffic at Various Count station................................................52
Figure 4.3: Hourly Variation of Traffic at Various Count Stations.........................................57
Figure 4.4: Tollable Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations .....................................63
Figure 4.5: Alternative Routes for Link 1- 9............................................................................68
Figure 4.6: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 7..........................................................................71
Figure 4.7: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 6..........................................................................71
Figure 4.8: Alternative Routes for Link 1- 5............................................................................72
Figure 4.9: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 4..........................................................................72
Figure 4.10: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 3........................................................................72
Figure 4.11: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 2........................................................................72
Figure 5.12: Alternative Routes for Link 3 – 7........................................................................74
Figure 5.13: Alternative Routes for Link 3 – 9........................................................................74
Figure 5.14: Alternative Routes for Link 4 – 7........................................................................75
Figure 5.15: Alternative Routes for Link 4 – 9........................................................................76
Figure 5.16: Alternative Routes for Link 5 – 6........................................................................77
Figure 5.17: Alternative Routes between Link 5 – 7...............................................................77
Figure 5.18: Alternative Routes for Link 7 – 9........................................................................78
Figure 5.19: Diversion Curves.................................................................................................79

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CHAPTER – 1
1.1 Project Background

Good transportation systems are lifeline to the area they serve. Roads bring about all round
development in the region. A good road network helps in the success of all
development activities, be it in the sphere of movement of people and goods, agriculture,
commerce, education, health, and social welfare, or even maintenance of law and order
and security.

To keep pace with the forth coming economic development within the State the Uttar
Pradesh Expressways Industrial Development Authority (UPEIDA) has been entrusted to
develop the access controlled Agra - Lucknow Expressway on Public Private Partnership
mode (PPP) by the Government of Uttar Pradesh (GO UP). The Agra - Lucknow Expressway
Project will extend the connectivity of the State Capital with National capital with High
Speed Corridor. The proposed expressway starts on the Agra Ring Road near village Madra
and ends on SH-40 (Lucknow – Mohan- Hasanganj – Rasulabad road) outskirts of Lucknow.
The project also includes the following two link roads:

1) Agra Link Road providing connectivity to proposed Agra Ring Road being undertaken
by Agra development Authority. The proposed Agra Ring Road is being built on priority
basis by Agra Development Authority and would provide linkage to end point of Yamuna
Expressway and NH-2. In case the proposed development of ring road does not
materialize then in order to provide connectivity with Yamuna Expressway additional 7
km of link road needs to be build by the concessionaire which will be a change in scope.
The length of this link is approximately 1.5 km with Trumpet Interchange on the Agra
Ring Road. The cross-sectional elements of this link would be exactly same as that of the
proposed Expressway.

2) Firozabad Link Road: the present single lane road will be widened to two lanes with
paved shoulder; the existing bridge on Yamuna is already a 2 lane bridge. The length of
this link is 15km.

3) Kannuj Link Road: the state highway has been converted to national highway (NH
91A) and hence only paved shoulder will be added as improvement. The length of this
link road is 8 Km.

4) Lucknow Link Road: as there is no timeline set by the Lucknow Development Authority
to develop the outer ring road for Lucknow, this link road is required to provide
connectivity of the expressway form Lucknow city. The end point meets at SH-40
(Lucknow – Mohan - Hasanganj – Rasulabad road) near Khushalganj. The length of this
link road is 9.6 Km and it utilizes the irrigation land available on the right bank of Sharda
Canal (Lucknow branch). The cross-sectional elements of this link would be exactly same
as that of the proposed Expressway, as there is limited ROW available along the canal
service roads on either side would not be provided. It has been proposed that as and when
Lucknow Outer Ring Road is constructed, concessionaire of the Expressway will provide
suitable interchange which will be a change in scope.

As the cross sectional elements for the Agra and Lucknow link roads are same hence both
these links have been included in the length of Expressway. In view of above the total length

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of the Expressway from proposed Agra Link Road (Start point) to end point at Lucknow on
SH 40 is 301 Km

The Consultants have undertaken feasibility studies for the project which includes costing to
assess technical, financial & economic viability, and social assessment studies, their analysis
etc. As a part of the study to establish the viability, a Feasibility Report has been prepared
after carrying out Engineering Surveys and appropriate assessment of a preliminary design
considering the engineering conditions, the present traffic and its growth, the environmental
impact assessment as well as the social aspects along with cost assessment.

This report among other aspects covers the details on finalization of alignment, grade
separator interchanges and structures along the proposed Expressway & Link roads,
digitization of the Khasra maps of ROW and marking of alignment on digitized maps,
identification of Tourist spots, eco-friendly structures, water bodies etc. along the
expressway.

1.2 Scope of services

As per the Terms of Reference (TOR), the project study consists of preparation of the
following:

Stage 1 - Inception Report


Stage 2 - Feasibility Report
 Sets of Drawings
 Investigation Reports
 Preliminary Designs
 Preliminary Costing
 Financial Analysis

The Feasibility study will include the following:


 Project proposals
 Traffic survey, analysis and Report
 Utility Relocation Plans
 Land Plan Schedules

Stage 2(a) - Environment and Social Impact Assessment Reports and getting Forest Wildlife
Clearance.

1.3 Key Traffic Study Finding

Various traffic surveys and analysis have been carried out for addressing the objectives of the
project stretch. The surveys conducted include 7 days traffic volume count at 4 locations, 3
days traffic volume count at 5 locations and 1 day origin – destination and commodity
movement survey at 7 locations etc. The study aims at obtaining the existing traffic and travel
characteristics on the project corridor and forecasting for project horizon year considering
various constituent streams and for various scenarios. The results of analysis will form inputs
for designing the pavement, carrying out financial analysis, decisions regarding grade
separators, pedestrian facilities, and wayside amenities along with design of intersections
along the project road.

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As Agra-Lucknow expressway is new alignment so the survey locations have been selected at
the connecting highway to the project road. The project road is connecting to NH-2, NH-91,
MDR, SH-62, SH-25, SH-21, SH-40 and NH-24. Based on the traffic study, the potentially
divertible traffic from the neighbouring highways has been worked out on the project road.
The project road has been divided into 8 homogenous sections based on traffic flow.

The average daily traffic (ADT) has been converted to average annual daily traffic (AADT)
using seasonal factors. The AADT is the input for various analyses like traffic forecast,
economic and financial analysis, capacity augmentation, pavement design, etc.
The following table provides the AADT in base year 2012-13 at 8 homogeneous sections.

S. No. Section AADT in No’s AADT in PCUs


1 Section 1 (km 0.000 to km 24.000) 10288 24504
2 Section 2 (km 24.000 to km 72.000) 9726 23849
3 Section 3 (km 72.000 to km 87.000) 9080 22591
4 Section 4 (km 87.000 to km 109.000) 9365 23423
5 Section 5 (km 109.000 to km 165.000) 11532 27419
6 Section 6 (km 165.000 to km 196.000) 11027 26570
7 Section 7 (km 196.000 to km 263.000) 9095 22724

8 Section 8 (km 263.000 to km 266.860) 10949 25381

Table 1.1: Summary of AADT (2012-2013)


1.3.1 Traffic Forecast

Traffic demand plays the most important factor in deciding the type of facility (infrastructure)
to be provided. This in turn determines likely benefits and costs to develop the same. A
highway project of this nature calls for significant investment. Prediction of traffic demand
becomes an important task and has to be carried out accurately. For the design of pavement
and to plan for the future maintenance programme and for economic & financial evaluation,
it is necessary to have realistic estimate of the size of traffic in the design period of 30 years.
Traffic forecasting is made by determining the past trend of traffic flow along the corridor
and by use of economic models developed to co-relate past vehicle registration data and
economic indices such as per capital income (PCI), net state domestic product (NSDP) and
gross domestic product (GDP). By using the elasticity values obtained from the economic
models and the likely rate of growth of indicators, the mode wise growth rates are obtained.
By applying this growth rates, future traffic volume is estimated.

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S. No. Section 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033
1 Section-1 24504 40628 59304 76110 98077
2 Section-2 23849 39086 56703 72884 94022
3 Section-3 22591 38690 57427 73162 93683
4 Section-4 23423 40866 61216 77784 99317
5 Section-5 27419 46866 69506 88724 113789
6 Section-6 26570 46327 69379 88230 112797
7 Section-7 22724 40550 61437 77817 99048
8 Section-8 25381 45022 68027 86433 110360

Table 1.2: Traffic Estimated for Future Years

The project road facilities have been designed for level of service ‘B’ for the concession
period of 30 years. For more details please refer to the Chapter 5 (Traffic Survey and
Analysis).

1.4 Key Engineering Survey Finding

The detailed reconnaissance survey has been carried out to identify and plan various surveys
and investigations. Topographic survey has been carried out using differential global
positioning system (DGPS), total station and auto level as per standards prescribed. Please
refer clause 3.6.4 of this report for more details.

The material investigations have been carried out and various quarries / borrow areas have
been identified and tested. The soaked CBR values of from borrow areas varies from 7.0% to
10%. For pavement design purposes we have adopted 10% CBR. A detailed Geo-Technical
investigation works have been carried out to know about the subsurface features and soil
profiles and relevant soil and rock properties in order to design the founding structures for the
proposed structures along the expressway.

Pavement design has been carried out and pavement composition based design life, projected
traffic, VDF, MSA and CBR values has been determined.

1.5 Design Proposals

1.5.1 Preliminary design

 Geometric design

The horizontal and vertical design has been carried out for the project as per the Guidelines
for Expressway by Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MOSRT&H) and also latest
IRC: 38 and IRC SP: 23 for a suitable Design speed as suggested in inception report. The
detailed improvement schemes are finalized based on the Guidelines for Expressway and

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latest IRC: SP41, MOSRT&H Type Design Manual for Intersections on National Highways
and Manual for Safety in Road Design.

 Alignment proposal

After carrying out field investigations and reconnaissance survey of existing / proposed
alignment, the consultants have arrived at alignment proposals. As the cross-sectional
elements are same for Agra and Lucknow link roads and also they provide connectivity from
start to end; their lengths have been included in the expressway. Hence the total length of the
expressway is 301 Km and the total length of two link roads are 23.0 Km.

 Typical Cross Section

Based on the traffic considerations, geometric standards and existing site conditions, the
typical cross sectional elements are framed for project expressway and link road.

1.5.2 Service Roads

Two lane service roads of 7.0 m width on intermediate basis has been proposed throughout
the length of the proposed expressway.

1.5.3 Pavement Design

Flexible pavement has been adopted for new carriageways throughout the project length
except at toll plaza locations. In the toll plaza area, rigid pavement has been adopted.

 New Flexible Pavement Design



The pavement design basically aims at determining the total thickness of the pavement
structure as well as thickness of individual structural components. The following assumptions
are considered for the preliminary pavement design. The basic assumptions considered while
designing are as follows:

 Design Life for bituminous layers has been assumed as 10 years after construction.
 For non-bituminous layers design life has been assumed as 30 years .Sub grade CBR
(for design) has been taken as 10%.
 Design life for Cement Concrete pavement has been assumed as 30 years

The project road has been divided into eight traffic homogeneous sections, design for which
are furnished below:

Homogeneous Section Design Life 10 Yrs


MSA Obtained MSA Adopted
Start to end of Expressway 29.80 30
Firozabad Link Road 8.5 10
Kanauji Link Road 9.5 10

Table 1.3: Summary of MSA adopted

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Section New Crust Composition (mm)
BC DBM WMM GSB Total
Thickness
Start to end of Expressway 40 95 250 200 585
Firozabad Link Road 40 50 250 200 540
Kanauj Link Road 40 50 250 200 540

Table 1.4: Flexible Pavement Composition for New Construction

 Service Roads

Service roads have been designed for 10 MSA for 10% CBR. The crust composition of
service roads is given in Table below.

Pavement Layer Thickness (mm)


Bituminous Concrete 40
Dense Graded Bituminous Macadam (DBM) 50
Wet Mix Macadam (WMM) 250
Granular Sub-Base (GSB) 200
Total 540

Table 1.5: Flexible Pavement for Service Roads

 Toll Plaza

Rigid Pavement has been proposed at the toll plaza locations. 30 years design life has been
assumed for finding out the pavement composition at toll plaza locations. The proposed
composition of rigid pavement is given in Table below:

GSB (mm) DLC (mm) PQC (mm)


150 150 300

Table 1.6: Pavement Composition for Rigid Pavement

1.6 Intial Environmental Impact Assessment

The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is aimed at determining the environmental


impacts due to the construction and operation of the project road. The major environmental
disciplines in the EIA study include topography and land use, soil and agriculture, geology
and seismicity, water quality, climate and meteorology, air quality, noise level, terrestrial and
aquatic ecology.

Project specific environmental management plan is being prepared for ensuring the
implementation of the proposed measures during construction phase of the project.

The UPEIDA has certain organizational and institutional capacity for satisfactory
implementation of the EMP.

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1.7 Social Assessment

The main objective of conducting social screening is to provide inputs of social concerns to
be detailed in project design and to avoid or minimize the adverse social impacts with the
best possible engineering solutions at minimum cost in close coordination between
engineering, environmental and social experts during the entire design process. The social
screening exercise is intended to assess the negative impacts (direct, indirect or cumulative)
and to suggest mitigating measures to avoid or at least minimize the adverse impacts on
nearby communities and natural environment, peoples and properties falling on the direct
path of road development, people indirectly affected by the way of disruption of livelihood,
breakage in community linkages, impacts arising from land acquisition and resettlement, on
indigenous people (SC, ST etc.) and on human safety etc.

1.8 Financial Evolution

To assess whether the project is a viable / profitable proposition, the return to concessionaire /
investors is measured in terms of the equity IRR, which is estimated on discounted cash flow
technique. The returns expected by investors are function of the value of equity issued on the
Indian stock markets, interest rates on commercial loans, the risk profile of the investment
and alternative investment opportunities. The target equity IRR, for the project to be done on
commercial format / PPP basis, have been taken as 16 percent. It is concluded that the project
is viable on DBFOT (Toll) basis for a concession period of 30 years.

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Chapter – 2

Project Description
The development of the High Speed Corridor between Agra and Lucknow by construction of
Access Controlled Expressway Project will extend the connectivity of the State Capital with
National capital In case the proposed development of ring road does not materialize then in
order to provide connectivity with Yamuna Expressway additional 7.0 km of link road
needs to be build by the concessionaire which will be treated as a change in scope of
work

2.1 REVIEW OF CONCEPT REPORT

The total length of the Expressway and four link roads as given in the concept report are as
under: The proposed Agra Ring Road is being built on priority basis by Agra
Development Authority and would provide linkage to end point of Yamuna Expressway and
NH-2. In case he proposed development of ring road does not materialize then in order
to provide connectivity with Yamuna Expressway additional 7.0 km of link road needs
to be build by the concessionaire which will be a change in scope. The length of
this link is approximately 1.5 km with Trumpet Interchange on the Agra Ring Road.
The cross-sectional elements of this link would be exactly same as that of the proposed
Expressway. There is no timeline set by the Lucknow Development Authority to develop the
outer ring road for Lucknow, this link road is required to provide connectivity of the
expressway form Lucknow city. The end point meets at SH-40 (Lucknow– Mohan-
Hasanganj – Rasulabad road) at Lucknow. The length of this link road is 9.6 Kms and it
utilizes the irrigation land available on the right bank of Sharda Canal (Lucknow
branch). The cross-sectional elements of this link would be exactly same as that of the
proposed Expressway. It has been proposed that as and when Lucknow Outer Ring Road is
constructed, concessionaire of the Expressway will provide suitable interchange which will
be a change in scope. After studying the concept report completing the reconnaissance
survey and detailed discussions with the Government Officials it was decided to
include the above two link roads to the Expressway Length. The remaining two links will
still be part of the project and will be developed to the standard of two lanes with paved
shoulder.

2.2 PROJECT AREA

2.2.1 Location define

The Project expressway and link roads traverse in the state of Uttar Pradesh, with total
length of 324.00Kms (Approx). The project stretch passes through Agra, Firozabad,
Mainpuri, Etawah, Kanpur, Kannauj, Hardoi, Unnao and Lucknow districts. Index Map given
in Figure 2.1 refers to the location of the Project stretch.

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Figure 2.1: Alignment of Agra – Lucknow Expressway

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2.2.2 Terrain and Land Use

The terrain on this stretch can be termed as Plain and flat throughout. Important places and
districts along the project stretch are Agra, Firozabad, Etawah, Mainpuri, Kannauj, Kanpur,
Hardoi, Unnao and Lucknow.

2.2.3 Alignment

The proposed alignment of the Expressway is a Greenfield alignment. The two link roads to
be developed / widened on the existing alignment. Horizontal sharp curves of 2 numbers are
present along the proposed Expressway which have absolute minimum curve radii but would
cater for proposed design speed; adequate traffic management schemes needs to be provided
so as to avoid accident at this location. The alignment of project link road passes through
built up sections. These urban / village stretches act as bottlenecks to the free flow of traffic
due to mixed local and through traffic, presence of ribbon development on either side and
uncontrolled access from side road/cross roads, lack of traffic segregation and pedestrian
facilities.

2.2.4 Existing Road Width

The existing carriageway of the project link road is 3.5m single lane for the Firozabad Link
and 2 lanes (7.0m) for the Kannauj Link road

2.2.5 Major Intersections

Proposed alignment intersects with 11 major roads along the road across the following
Locations

 Agra Ring Road


 ODR-Firozabad to Fatehabad
 NH-2
 SH-83(Etawah –Manpuri)
 SH-29 (Kariban-Simra)
 NH-92(Kusmara-Etawah)
 NH-91A (Sikari-Urmada)
 NH-91 (Kannauj-Kanpur)
 SH-38 (Ganj Muradabad-Bangermau)
 MDR (Sandila to Bangermau)
 NH-25A

2.2.6 Right of Way

The ROW has been taken as 110m for the proposed expressway; 18m (60 feet) Firozabad
Link road and 36m (110 feet) for Kanauj Link road

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2.2.7 Bridges and Cross Drainage Structures

There are 10 major bridges, 49 minor bridges, 1 overpass, and 9 flyovers, 3 ROB, 1 ROB
cum major bridge, 52 VUP and 138 PUPs have been proposed along the project corridor. In
addition to above, Firozabad Link road has 1 major bridge, 29 culverts and Kannauj Link
road has 1 major bridge, 3 minor bridge and 38 culverts.

2.2.8 Utilities

As the proposed expressway alignment traverses through agricultural land chances of


having underground utilities for most of the stretch is remote. There are a few
existing electrical poles along the Green field section which would require relocation There
are several utility lines like electric, telephones lines, gas pipe line, OFC lines and irrigation
canals which are running parallel to the project link roads and cross at many locations
and may require relocation especially on the Firozabad and Kannauj Link road.

2.3 Exitising Project Facilities

At present there are no pick-up bus stops / shelters, truck lay-byes and Toll Plazas present
along the project link roads. Proposed Expressway alignment is a Green field
alignment with majority of length passing through agricultural/rural land; hence no
existing facilities are present.

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Chapter – 3
Methodology and Design Standards
3.1 Genral

All the services are carried out strictly as per TOR and within the timeframe given for each
activity/ submission. In general, the Specifications and Standards primarily based on the
Guidelines for Expressway by Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MOSRT&H) have
been followed. Specific Codes and Guidelines of the IRC and publications of the
MOSRT&H including circulars & general/special publications, technical Specifications &
Standards have been kept in view

In depth consultation process with various stakeholders including UPEIDA, ADA, LDA,
MORT&H, Railways, NGOs and other consultants working in project influence area was
held on a regular basis apart from regular discussion between the consultant & UPEIDA on
the progress of the work. As time and quality are the essence of the project, before any
analysis and designs, all the parameters to be used were got approved by the Client during
preparation of draft reports so there is minimum changes later on, i.e. minimum time
requirement in the finalization of final reports without compromising quality

3.2 Design Basis

The broad methodology has been generally developed keeping standard practices / IRC
guidelines, with certain additions and modifications as felt necessary and discussed with
Uttar Pradesh Expressway and Industrial Development Authority (UPEIDA) during various
review meetings.

3.3 Collection and review of earlier report

The Consultants have collected and reviewed the relative study reports to have a better
understanding of the project & also for getting some inputs as a part of the Services. The
study reports thus considered for review are:

1) Concept Report for Development of Agra – Lucknow Access Controlled Expressway


(Green Field) Project.
2) Road development plan in the region by UPEIDA.
3) Master Plan reports within Project Influence Area especially for Agra and Lucknow
districts.
Other details are also collected and collated to form recommendations by considering the
following inputs:
 Quarry/Borrow Area details.
 Soil Test results.
 Geo-technical investigation reports.
 Condition and Inventory survey of the existing bridges and culvert situated o
upstream and downstream of the proposed alignment (only on proposed link roads).
 Existing Utility Services/Utility Plans.
 Traffic Studies.
 Development Plans for major towns and areas along the project road.
 Availability of construction materials and unit rates for work items.
 Recent acquisition rates for different types of land/immovable properties.

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 Right of Way Details from Revenue maps.

3.4 Socio-Economic Proile

Socio-economic profile of the influence area is prepared, after study of data on growth of
population and density, human settlement pattern, land use, sub-profiles of agriculture and
industries, economic base, trends in socio-economic indicators, development scenarios for
various sectors, transport infrastructure and its uses such as use of waterways & rail
transport etc.
The relevant data is collected from the following sources:
• State Statistical Abstracts
• State Year Books
• Census Publications – Districts and State
• Hand Books of Statistics of Districts in the area of influence
• Economic Surveys of the State constituting the zone of influence
• The Bureau of Economics & Statistics of Uttar Pradesh

3.5 Traffic Survey, Analysis and Projection

Traffic surveys will include (only those surveys would be carried out which are required for
correctly forecasting the traffic along the proposed road):

 Classified Traffic Volume Counts


 Origin - Destination and commodity Movement Surveys

Standard procedures given in IRC Codes have been followed for carrying out Traffic
Surveys. The data arrived from the Surveys has been analysed to determine ADT of
surrounding roads of the proposed project road and Travel characteristics.
Growth of traffic in project road influence area and also on the project road is regarded as
the most important aspect since the whole project design and financial evaluation is based on
this. To establish the realistic growth rates, road transport data, population growth rates
and socio-economic parameters have been studied and analyzed. The growth rates for
passenger vehicles have been worked out on the basis of annual growth rate of population
and per capita income while the growth rates of freight vehicles have been based on the
rate of growth in agricultural, industrial and tourism sectors and historical traffic data

3.6 Engineering Surveys and Investigation


3.6.1 Reconnaissance Survey of the Project Road

Reconnaissance survey has been carried out immediately before the kick off meeting to
examine the general characteristics of the Project Corridor. Consultants have undertaken a
site visit along with the experts in the field of Highway, Pavement and Bridge Engineering.
This has helped in the detailed appreciation of the project corridor in terms of traffic and
other engineering measures and judicious assessment of the following salient factors have
generally been made:
 Topography of the area
 Terrain and soil conditions
 Climate and Rainfall

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 Drainage Characteristics
 Traffic patterns and preliminary identification of traffic homogeneous sections of road
in the area.
 Railway lines and other critical utilities/services having impact on road alignment
 Land use (agricultural, build-up, forest land, etc.,)
 Environmental factors
 Availability of materials
 Any other useful information
 The findings are documented in this report.

3.6.2 Road Inventory and Pavement Condition for Link Roads

3.6.2.1 Road Inventory Survey

The purpose of the road inventory survey was to characterize and record the essential
elements and features of the project link roads along its existing alignment. The inventory
survey has been carried out from Firozabad Link Road from Ch. 0 + 000 to Ch. 15+000 and
Kannauj Link Road from Ch. 0 + 000 to Ch. 26+000 of NH-91A for collection of existing
road side features at every 200m interval or every change of feature whichever is earlier.
The road inventory has been referenced to the existing kilometre posts established along
the roadside.

 Terrain
 Land Use (Built-Up / Agricultural / Forest / Industrial / Barren)
 Village / Town
 Carriageway Width (Type / Width / Condition
 Median Width
 Service Roads(Type/Width)
 General Drainage Condition
 Embankment Height (m)
 Details of Cross Roads (Location / Road / C.W. Width)
 Curves (Horizontal / Vertical)
 Bus Stop Locations
 Retaining Structures
 Location of Water Bodies (Lakes & Reservoir etc.)
 Right of Way
 Culverts, Bridges And other Structures (Type, Size & Span Arrangement)
 Remarks

Terrain - The entire terrain along the project link roads are in plain terrain.

Land Use - The land use patterns along the project road are Built-up, Industrial, Barren
and Agricultural in which predominant land use pattern is Agriculture. There is ribbon
development along the majority of the road with small settlements observed at frequent
intervals. The summary of observed land use along these two link roads are given

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Table 3.1 : Summary of Land use along the Link Roads

3.6.2.2 Pavement Condition Survey

The survey on general pavement condition was primarily a visual exercise undertaken by
means of slow drive-over survey, and supplemented with measurements where necessary.
Visual assessment was carried out from a vehicle, with speed not exceeding 20 km/hr and
stopping at various locations at suitable intervals and wherever necessary, due to
variations in pavement conditions. At the points of stoppage, simple measurements using
measuring tape and straight edge were carried out to quantify pavement deficiency on a
representative basis. Aspects of pavement conditions assessed include surface defects, rut
depth, cracking, potholes, patched areas, shoulder condition etc. An overall assessment of
performance – serviceability of the road was also done to qualitatively rate the existing
pavement and shoulder condition.

The pavement condition has been recorded under the following sub-heads:

 Shoulder
 Composition / Condition / material Loss
 Riding Quality (Good / Fair / Poor / Very Poor)
 Pavement Condition (surface distress type & extent)
 Cracking (%)
 Ravelling (%)
 Potholes (%)
 Patching (%)
 Rut depth (mm)
 Pavement edge Drop (mm)
 Embankment Condition (Good / Fair / Poor)
 Road Side Drain (Non Existing / Partially Functional / Functional)
 Drainage condition

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Table 3.2 : Summary of Pavement Condition for Fatehabad to Firozabad Link Road

From the above summary it has been conclude that 75.83% of link road is in excellent
condition, 2.50%of link road is in good condition, 6.94%of link road is in fair condition,
2.22% of link road is in poor condition and 12.50% of road is in very poor condition
3.6.3 Inventory and Condition Survey of Bridges and Structures
The inventory and condition surveys for existing structures in
the project influence area have been carried out as per the parameters given in latest IRCSP:
35 “Guidelines for Inspection and Maintenance of Bridges”.

Culverts
a) Location and Type
b) Span / Diameter, and no. of Spans / Pipes
c) Total Width and Skew Angle
d) Type / Material of Wing Walls, Substructures and Super Structures
e) Hydraulic Condition at Inlet and Outlet
f) Improvement Measures
Required Bridges
a) Location, Name of Water Course
b) Span Arrangements and Material of Construction of Structural Components
c) Width of Carriageway and Overall Width
d) Flow Direction and Skew Angle
e) Details of other Bridges on the Same Water Way
f) Condition of the Various Components
g) Improvements Measures Required

Geometric aspects, including bridge widths and whether the existing structure can
be economically incorporated into the new road geometry;

 Condition of each element of the structure viz. foundation, sub-structure, Expansion


joint, bearings, super-structure, railings, drainage spouts, river protection works,
returns and wearing course;
 Approach road conditions;
 Waterway conditions;
 The capability of the structure to meet the proposed design standards for traffic
loading;
 Repair needs or the requirement of reconstruction of one element or the complete
structure based on the present distress level.

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 Ease of maintenance and future maintenance costs

3.6.4.6 Material Investigations

The Material Investigation for road construction has been carried out to identify the
potential sources of construction materials and to assess their general availability,
mechanical properties and quantities. This is one of the most important factors for stable,
economic and successful implementation of the road program within the stipulated time for
improvement work as well as for new carriageway / bypass the list of materials includes the
following:
a) Granular material for lower sub-base works.
b) Crushed stone aggregates for upper sub-base, base, surfacing and cement concrete
works.
c) Sand for filter material and cement, concrete works, sub-base and filling material.
d) Borrow material for embankment, sub-grade and filling.
e) Manufactured material like cement, steel, bitumen, geo-textiles etc. for other related
works.

The Information on material sources has been carried out with the following basic
objectives:

 Source location, indicating places, kilometerage, availability and the status whetherin
operation or new source.
 Access to source, indicating the direction and nature of the access road i.e. left / right
of project road, approximate lead distance from the gravity centre and type of access
road.
 Ownership of land / quarries, either government or private.
 Probable uses indicating the likely use of materials at various stages of construction
work i.e. fill materials, sub-grade, sub-base, base and wearing course and cross
drainage structures.

3.7 Traffic Design

3.7.1.1 Equivalency Factors

The need of expressing capacity in passenger car units has triggered off many studies for
establishing appropriate passenger car equivalency (PCE) values for different types of
vehicles. Notable among the studies carried out in India are the road user cost studies
(RUCS) by CRRI and the MoSRT&H. It has been recognised that the PCE values vary
under different traffic, roadway conditions and composition for any given type of vehicle.
Equivalency Factor is a factor to convert the mixed flow of traffic in to single unit to express
the capacity of road. The unit generally employed is the passenger car unit (PCU

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Table 3.3: Equivalency Factor

Free Flow Speed

An important element of the speed – flow curves of the project roads is the free flow speed.
It is the speed at which driver feel comfortable travelling under the physical, environmental
and traffic control conditions on a non-congested section of a multi lane highway, - HCM
Lane Width (m) Reduction in FFS(kmph)
3.6 0.0
3.5 1.0
3.4 2.1
3.3 3.1
3.2 5.6
3.1 8.1
3.0 10.6

Table 3.4 : Free Flow Speed

Calculation of Base Capacity (Base Cap)


The base capacity (pcphpl) of an expressway facility is given by
Base Capacity = 1700+10FFS; for FFS<=112 ---Eq(2)
Base Capacity = 2400; for FFS>112 ---Eq(3)
Since, the FFS is (120kmph)>112kmph, base capacity =240 0pcphpl

Determination of Peak Capacity (Peak Cap)


The peak capacity is given by,
Peak Cap = Base Cap*PHF*N*fHV*fP

Where,
Peak Capacity = Peak capacity, vehicles per hour ( all lanes, one direction)
PHF = Peak Hour Factor
N = Number of lanes in one direction (3 for 6-lane and 4 for 8-lane)
fHV = Adjustment factor for heavy vehicles
fP = Adjustment factor for driver population

3.8 Engineering Design

3.8.1 Geometric Design of the Alignment

The Preliminary Design has been carried out on the selected alignment so as to have

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optimum Construction and Operation & maintenance cost and Vehicle Operation Cost;
minimum Social Impacts and Social Costs and Environmental Impacts and Environmental
Mitigation Costs

Geometric Design Control


The detailed design for geometric elements covers, but not limited to the following major
aspects:
 Horizontal alignment
 Longitudinal profile
 Cross-sectional elements
 Junctions, intersections and Interchanges
 Service road on either sides of carriageway

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Table 3.5 : Indicative Design Standards for Main Carriageway

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Table 3.6 : Geometric Design Standards for Interchange Elements

Design Speed
Design speed is the basic parameter, which determines the geometric features of the road.
The proposed design speeds for different terrain categories as per “Guidelines for
Expressway” are as follows

Table 3.7: Design Speed

Cross Sectional Elements

Right of Way (ROW)

As per Guidelines for Expressway the minimum right of way (ROW) for up to 8 lanes
expressways is 90m for plain and rolling terrain. The minimum ROW of 110 m has been
adopted for the proposed expressway in rural section (open areas i.e. green field section)
and 60 m is proposed for link roads. The ROW at toll plaza locations, ROBs and
flyovers/interchange sections may vary depending on their respective layout and
requirement. A 2m wide utility corridor inside the boundary fencing has been taken into
account within the proposed ROW width.

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Lane Width

As per Guidelines for Expressway the width of a lane in Plain and Rolling terrains has been
taken as 3.75 m. The kerb shyness of 0.5 m on the outer side (i.e., Embankment side) and
0.75 m shyness on median side has been provided.

Paved Shoulder

Paved shoulders shall be designed as an integral part of the pavement for the main
carriageway. Width of these shoulders has been taken as 3 m. This will provide for better
traffic operation conditions, lower maintenance and facility of directly using these as part of
carriageway when the road is subsequently widened on these sides.

Service Road

Service roads are provided on either side throughout the stretch. Service road width is
taken as 7.5 m.

Sight Distance

Safe stopping sight distance, both in the vertical and horizontal directions will apply in
design. The sight distance values as per Guidelines of Expressway recommendations are
as follows:

Table no 3.8-Safe Stopping Sight Distance

Horizontal Alignment

Radii of Curve

The horizontal curves on the project road are designed for a minimum radius as per
Guidelines of Expressway manual. Adopting a maximum value of 7% for super elevation
and 0.10 for side friction factor, the minimum radius for horizontal curves works out to be as
follows as per MOSRT&H- Guidelines for Expressways.

Table no 3.9-Radius of Horizontal Curve

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Super – Elevation

The super elevation at curves is arrived at as per the following equation:


v2 = (e + f) *gR
Where,
v = Vehicle speed in m/sec.
g = Acceleration due to gravity in meters/sec2
e = Super elevation ratio in meter per meter
f = Coefficient of side friction between vehicle tyre and pavement (taken as 0.15)
R = Radius in meters.

The super elevation is calculated keeping in view the horizontal radii and gradient at curves
at different locations.

Method for attaining super-elevation

Dual – inner edge pivot of both carriageways at different chainage is used for attaining
super-elevation. This method pivots the dual carriageway about the inner edge strings of
both carriageways using different chainage, so that the central reservation levels are not
changed

Figure 3.1: Method for attaining super-elevation

Transition Curves

The rate of change of super elevation is being considered not steeper than 1 in 200 for
roads in plain and rolling terrain and 1 in 150 for roads in Mountainous terrain. The
following three formulae are used for calculating the transition lengths and the maximum
value is being adopted for design:
Ls = 0.0215 V3/ CR
a) Rate of change of super elevation or runoff.
b) Three seconds time for manipulating the steering. The minimum lengths of transition
curves for this criteria

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Where:
R - Radius of curve in meters
V - Vehicle speed in Km / hour
Ls - Length of transition in meters
C - Rate of change of acceleration.
Vertical Alignment
The vertical alignment of the carriageway is generally compatible with the guidelines given
in the MOSRT&H Guidelines of Expressway.
• At locations of grade break of 0.5%, vertical curves are being provided.
• Desirably, there shall be no change in grade within a distance of 150m
• The length of vertical curve will not be less than 0.6V (kmph)
• Number of PVI will not be more than 4 in one km.

Vertical Curves

Vertical curves are designed to provide for visibility at least corresponding to the safe
stopping sight distance. More liberal values are adopted wherever this is economically
feasible. Valley curves are designed for headlight sight distance. Maximum vertical gradient
is limited to 3% and 4% in plain and rolling sections and up to 5% in mountainous sections.
Vertical Clearance
The vertical clearances is being adopted as per MOSRT&H Guidelines for Expressways
and Pocket Book for Highway Engineers (Second Revision) published by the IRC, New
Delhi in 2002.
• Vertical clearance at underpasses
Rural areas : 5.0 m minimum
Urban Areas : 5.5 m minimum
• Vertical clearance for railway traction (Broad Gauge)
Electric traction : 6.625 m minimum
It is however mentioned here that the vertical clearance shall be got confirmed from
Railways / other authorities as required.

3.9 Cross Fall

Each carriageway will have unidirectional cross fall. The cross-fall for the flexible pavement
and paved shoulders is 2.5%. For earthen shoulders, the corresponding value is 3%.

3.10 Roadway Width at Cross-Drainage Structure

Culverts

The culverts are built to the full formation width of the road and have been designed using
latest IRC: SP 13 and IRC: 112.

Design Life

By considering stage construction, the design life for bituminous layers has been
considered as 10 years and for granular layers (GSB and WMM) 30 years or Operational

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Period (higher has been considered) for the flexible pavement design. For rigid pavement a
design life of 30 years has been considered

Rigid Pavement Design

Design of Concrete Slab

Once the parameters are decided, actual stresses developed in the concrete slab due to
design wheel load is computed by the Westergaard’s Equation modified by Teller and
Sutherland. The maximum stress occurs in the corner and the minimum in the interior. The
edge load condition gives an intermediate value.
Temperature stresses at the edge are calculated by using Bradbury’s formula. The
temperature stresses in the corner region is negligible as the corners are relatively free to
wrap and may be ignored.
The design wheel load stress and the temperature stress at the edge are then added up together
and this summation shall be less than 28 days flexural strength of concrete for the
assumed thickness to be adequate from design point of view.

Design of Joints

Once the concrete slab thickness is designed based on particular spacing and location of
joints, the remaining job is the design of dowel bars and tie bars with the provision of
adequate sealants.

Dowel Bars

The design of dowel bar at joints is carried out on the basis of its load transfer capacity. It
is recommended that 40% of wheel load can be transferred through dowel bar system. It is
observed that failure of dowel bar occurs due to the crushing of concrete below the dowel
bar and hence bearing stress shall be considered for its design.
Generally 500 mm long 32 mm diameter M.S. bar at a spacing of 250 - 300 mm is used as
dowel bar for concrete slab of 200 -350 mm thick. No dowel bar is required for slab
thickness less than 150 mm. However separate calculation has been made for present
situation for dowel bar design.

Tie Bar

Tie bars are provided to prevent the adjoining slabs from separating. Longitudinal joints
are provided with tie bars. It does not increase the structural capacity of the slab and are
not designed as load transferred devices

Guidelines for Expressways

Design Approach

The hydrological & hydraulic design of bridges is an important aspect to determine the
minimum required waterway; design highest flood level (HFL) and minimum scour levels

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of piers & abutments of the bridges proposed on the new alignments. The various design
standards (latest) which have been adopted for the hydrological & hydraulic design of
bridges are g i v e n b e low.

Design Parameters

Parameters for design discharge: Flood Estimation Reports for Upper Indo-Ganga Plains
(subzone – 1e) and Middle Ganga Plains (subzone – 1f) have been used for the
determination of design discharges of river bridges whose length is more than 30m, except
bridges on river Ganga & on river Yamuna.
Area of catchment, length of longest stream & parameters for determining equivalent slope
has been obtained from topographical sheets of Survey of India (SOI). All other
parameters, such as, equations for obtaining synthetic unit hydrograph, 100-year 24-hr
point rainfall, conversion factor for 100-year 24-hr point rainfall to design storm duration,
areal reduction factor for finding areal rainfall from point rainfall, time distribution of areal
rainfall, loss rate, base flow, etc. are obtained from flood estimation.
River/stream bridges whose length is less than or equal to 30m, Area-Velocity method have
been adopted. Also, the area-velocity method has been used for the bridges on tributary &
minor canals.
Bridge on River Yamuna: Recorded daily discharge and water level at Poiyaghat gauge
discharge station, which is 101km upstream of proposed Yamuna Bridge is obtained from
the CWC. Also, the HFL of Yamuna at Etawah, which is 116km downstream of concerned
bridge, is available from CWC publication. Bridge on River Ganga: Bank-full discharge at
Ankinghat gauge-discharge station, which is 1.3km upstream of proposed Ganga Bridge is
available from an article named Understanding confluence dynamics in the alluvial Ganga-
Ramganga valley, India: An integrated approach using geomorphology and hydrology" by
Nanigopal Roy and Rajiv Sinha, Engineering Geosciences Group, Department of Civil
Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur,. The article is available at
"http://home.iitk.ac.in/~rsinha/PDF's/2007_confluence_geomorphology.pdf”. Also, the HFLs
of Ganga River at Ankinghat and at Kanpur, which is 64.7km downstream of concerned
bridge, is available from CWC publication. Return Period: 100 years return period has been
adopted to calculate the discharge as per Manual of Specifications and Standards for Six
Laning. Bed Slope: The energy slope has been taken equal to the bed slope, measured
over a reasonably long reach. Bed slope of the river has been obtained from topo
survey data. The longitudinal section of the river has been generated using MX-Road / Civil
3D software

3.10.2 Drainage and Protection Works

The drainage requirements for the project road and adjoining areas are assessed through
the DTM prepared from topographical survey data. Pavement internal and external
drainage is ensured by providing drainage layer and camber respectively. Longitudinal
slopes in roadside ditches and central drain are generally equal to generate self cleaning
velocity at the time of storm. Small catchment analysis with project specific unit hydrograph
is undertaken for the hydraulic design of the drain channel.

3.10.3 Structural Design


a) Structural width for bridges / flyovers / road over rail bridges
The overall deck width for all bridges, underpasses & ROBs has been kept same

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19.75 m (including 0.5m crash barrier on either side) in each direction of traffic.
Total width of Grade separator considered 27.25m, including 2 lane ramp merging
at structure location.

b) Median width
A median width of 3.0 m is maintained between two outer faces of RCC crash
barriers.
3.10.3.3 Specification for Material
Concrete: The grades of concrete are either equal to or higher than those prescribed in latest
IRC: 112.
a) Steel: This conforms to the provisions given in IS: 1786, IS: 432 (Part I).
Reinforcement steel:
 High yield strength deformed bars conforming to Fe 500 / TMT.
 Mild steel not to be used.
 Pre-stressing steel
b) Bearings
Elastomeric bearing has been provided as per latest IRC: 83 (Part II) and shall
conform to clause 2005 of MoSRT&H specification for Road and Bridge Works.
c) Expansion Joints
Elastomeric strip seal type expansion joints are provided on all the bridges and
ROBs as per Clause No. 2607 of MoSRT&H specification for road and bridge works
and interim specifications for expansion joints issued subsequently vide MoSRT&H

3.10.3.4 Loads and Forces to be considered in Design


_ Vertical Loads
a) Dead Loads
Following unit weights are assumed in the design as per latest IRC Codes.
Pre-stressed Concrete : 2.5 t / m3
Reinforced Concrete : 2.5 t / m3
Plain Cement Concrete : 2.2 t / m3
Structural steel : 7.85 t / m3
Dry Density of Backfill Soil : 2.0 t / m3
Saturated Density of Backfill Soil : 2.0 t / m3
b) Superimposed Dead Loads
Wearing coat: 65mm thick with 40mm Bituminous concrete overlaid + 25mm thick
bituminous mastic layer.

c) Live Loads
Carriageway live loads: The following load combinations are considered in the analysis and
whichever produces the worst effect is considered.
One / Two / Three / Four lanes of IRC Class A
One lane of IRC Class 70R (tracked) with two lane of IRC Class A
One lane of IRC Class 70R (wheeled) with two lane of IRC Class A

d) Horizontal Forces
a) Longitudinal Forces due to live load
Following effects are considered in the design
_ Braking forces as per the provision of latest IRC: 6
_ Distribution of longitudinal forces due to horizontal deformation of
bearings/frictional resistance offered to the movement of free bearings as per

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latest IRC: 6
b) Horizontal forces due to water currents
The portion of bridge, which may be submerged in running water, is designed to
sustain safely the horizontal pressure due to force of water current as per the
stipulations of latest IRC:6
c) Earth load
i. Earth forces are calculated as per the provisions of latest IRC:6 assuming the
following soil properties:
Type of soil assumed for backfilling : As per latest IRC: 112
Angle of Internal Friction : Φ= 30O
Angle of Wall Friction : δ = 20O
Coefficient of Friction ‘a‘at base : tan (2/3 Φ), while Φ is the angle of
internal friction of substrata
immediately under the foundations.
ii. Live load surcharge are considered as per the provisions of latest IRC: 6.
d) Centrifugal forces
Centrifugal forces are calculated as per the provisions of latest IRC: 6 for a design
speed applicable at horizontal curves.
e) Wind effect
Structures are designed for wind effects as stipulated in latest IRC: 6. the wind
forces are considered in the following two ways and the one producing the worst
effect shall govern design.
f) Seismic Effect
The road stretch is located in Seismic Zone-III as per the revised seismic map of
India (IS: 1893-2002). The seismic forces will be coefficient method as suggested
by the modified clause for the interim measures for seismic provisions in latest IRC:
6.

e) Other Forces / Effects


Temperature effects: The bridge structure / components i.e. bearings and expansion
joints, are designed for a temperature variation of + 250 C considering extreme climate.
The superstructures are also designed for effects of distribution of temperature across
the deck depth as given in latest IRC: 6, suitably modified for the surfacing thickness.
Temperature effects considered are as follows:
 Effects of non-linear profile of temperature combined with 50% live load and full
value of ‘E’ is considered.
 Effects of global rise and fall of temperature combined with 100% live load and full
value of ‘E’ is considered.
Differential shrinkage effects: A minimum reinforcement of 0.2% of cross sectional
area in the longitudinal direction of the cast-in-situ slab is provided to cater for
differential shrinkage stresses in superstructures with cast-in-situ slab over precast
girders as per Clause 605.2 of latest IRC: 22.

3.11 Environmental and Social Screeing

3.11.1 Environmental Screening

An Environmental screening study has been undertaken. The preliminary environmental


study focused on identifying the key areas, the need for assessment of key impacts, issues,

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including information necessary for proposed development. The following issues were
identified:
• The important environmental issues and concerns;
• The significant effects and factors; and
• The appropriate content and boundaries of an EIA study.
The programme included:
• Field surveys;
• Consultation exercises; identifying existing relevant baseline data;
• Identifying the scope of baseline surveys required;
• Identifying key issues to be addressed within the EIA; and
• Providing a technical brief for the EIA.

3.11.2 Secondary data collection


Secondary data collection including relevant maps for all the corridors was made available
from various government agencies regarding:
• Physical resources
• Flora and fauna
• Critical natural habitats
• Built-up areas
• Water bodies
• Other critical environmental indicators
• Policy, legal and administrative framework etc

3.11.3 Social Screening


The overall objective of the study is to assess the likely impact on persons/families in the
process of land acquisition needed in the process of construction of project road.
Social assessment would be conducted to broadly assess the extent of impacts due to the
project on persons and properties within the corridor of impact. Both desk research and
identification of major settlements within project area through field survey are conducted.
Social assessment study also aims at identifying the project affected people (PAP) and
project affected families (PAF) analysing their socio-economic status, assessing losses due
to project implementation

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Chapter – 4

4.1 Traffic Surveys


To achieve the desired objectives, the following surveys were conducted:

 Classified traffic volume count at nine (9) locations


 Origin-destination surveys for passengers and commodity movements at seven(7)
locations for one-day (24hrs. each direction)

Traffic survey locations for carrying out these surveys were selected after a site
reconnaissance considering following factors:

 The locations should cover all the roads from where the traffic is likely to divert to the
proposed expressway.
 The station should be outside urban influence and
 The station is located in a reasonably level terrain with good visibility.

The locations were finalized after the reconnaissance survey and are presented in Figure 5.1.
The survey schedule is given Table 5.1.

Location Start Date End Date Duration


Classified Traffic Volume Count (days)
NH-2 near Dabrai between Firozabad &Shikohabad 22/02/2013 28/02/2013 7
NH-2 near NagalDalap between Etawah&Auryia 23/02/2013 01/03/2013 7
NH-91 near Araul 04/03/2013 10/03/2013 7
NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km from NH-25A 06/03/2013 12/03/2013 7
SH-62 near Fatehabad 28/02/2013 02/03/2013 3
MDR Firozabad – Fatehabad Road near Yamuna 01/03/2013 03/03/2013 3
SH-21 near Tirwaganj 05/03/2013 07/03/2013 3
SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 km from 08/03/2013 10/03/2013 3
Malihabad)
SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge 10/03/2013 12/03/2013 3
Origin–Destination
NH-2 near Dabrai between Firozabad &Shikohabad 1
NH-2 near NagalDalap between Etawah&Auryia 1
NH-91 near Araul 1
NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km from NH-25A 1
SH-62 near Fatehabad 1
SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 km from Malihabad) 1
SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge (6 Km from Mohan) 1

Table 4.1: Traffic Survey Schedule

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Figure 4.1: Traffic Survey Location Map

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4.2 Classified Traffic Voloume Counts

The classified volume count survey was carried out at 9 locations, each location being
selected near the point from where the possibility of diversion of traffic on the proposed
alignment of the expressway was observed. For these major roads intersecting the proposed
project road were surveyed continuously for seven or three consecutive days for 24 hours on
each day. For carrying out the counts, the vehicles were grouped under different categories as
indicated in Table 5.2.

The identified classified traffic volume count locations for 7 days count are given below:

1) NH-2 near Dabrai between Firozabad & Shikohabad

2) NH-2 near Nagal Dalap between Etawah & Auryia

3) NH-91 near Araul

4) NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km from NH-25A

The identified classified traffic volume count locations for 3 days count are given below:

1) SH-62 near Fatehabad

2) MDR Firozabad – Fatehabad Road near Yamuna

3) SH-21 near Tirwaganj

4) SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 km from Malihabad)

5) SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge (6 Km from Mohan)

For the purpose of counts, a day was divided into two shifts of 12 hours each and different
groups of enumerators with a supervisor were assigned for each shift. The count data was
recorded at 15- minute intervals for each vehicle group for each direction of travel separately.
Trained enumerators were deployed for counting and recording by making tally marks in the
five-dash system. Hourly totals were made at the end of the shift.

These locations are characterized by centers of heavy economic activities, population and are
away from the influence of city areas in order to avoid the local traffic. Also these locations
were selected on the basis of possible divertible traffic on proposed expressway so as to
capture the entire relevant traffic movement.

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4.3 Origin-Destination Survey

The origin-destination survey was carried out with the primary objective of studying the
travel pattern of goods and passenger traffic along the study corridor. The results will also be
useful for assessing the divertible traffic on to the proposed road, identifying the influence
area of the project road, estimating the growth rates of traffic, planning for tolling strategies
and identification of the toll plazas on the project road.

The O-D survey was carried out for one day. Roadside interview method was adopted for the
survey. The vehicles were stopped on random sample basis with the help of police, and
trained information pertaining to origin and destination of the trip, trip length, frequency,
return trip commodity types, loading pattern and trip purpose as applicable for various
vehicle types were recorded. This trip frequency will be used in the estimation of Tollable
vehicles. The origin – destination survey locations was carried out at the following locations;

1) NH-2 near Dabrai between Firozabad & Shikohabad

2) NH-2 near Nagal Dalap between Etawah & Auryia

3) NH-91 near Araul

4) NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km from NH-25A

5) SH-62 near Fatehabad

6) SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 km from Malihabad)

7) SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge (6 Km from Mohan)

4.4 Analysis of survey data

4.4.1 Analysis of Traffic Volume Count

The various vehicle types having different sizes and characteristics were converted into a
standard unit called passenger car unit. Passenger Car equivalents for various vehicles are
adopted based on recommendations of Indian Road Congress prescribed in “Guidelines for
Capacity of Roads in Rural areas”, IRC-64-1990. The passenger car unit values (PCU) which
were adopted are presented in Table 5.2. The information derived from the surveys was
utilized to obtain traffic intensity, traffic composition, hourly variation and daily variations
and peak hour characteristics.

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Fast Vehicles Slow Vehicles
Vehicle Group PCU Vehicle Group PCU Factor
Factor

Car, Jeep, Van (Passenger 1 Bicycle 0.5


Vehicles)

Auto Rickshaw < 3 1 Cycle Rickshaw 2


Auto Rickshaw > 3, <12 1 Animal / Hand Drawn 4

2 Wheeler 0.5 Other (HCM/EME) 4.5


Taxi 1
Government
School
Mini Bus
Private 1.5
Government
School
Standard Bus Private 3

Light LCV (4 Wheeled)


Commercial 1.5
Vehicle LCV (6 Wheeled)
(LCV)
2 – Axle Truck 3
3 – Axle Truck 3
Multi Axle Truck (4-6 Axle) 4.5
Multi Axle Truck (>6 Axle) 4.5
Agriculture Tractor 1.5
Agriculture Tractor & Trailer 4.5
(Single Axle)

Agriculture Tractor & Trailer (> 4.5


Single Axle)

Table 4.2: PCU Factors adopted for the study (IRC 64-1990)

4.4.2 Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) has been worked out in terms of vehicles per day (VPD)
and Passenger Car Units (PCU) by averaging 7 days volume counts. The following Table 5.3
gives the average daily traffic at the 6 survey locations based on average of 7 days traffic
flow.

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Near Near Firozab Near Near Near
Near Nidha Fateha ad – Tirwa Amar Maharajg
Vehicle Near Nangal Near san bad Fateha ganj pali anj
Type Dabrai_ Dalap_NH Araul_ _NH SH-62 bad _SH21 Co Bridge_S
NH2 2 NH-91 24 Road_ tages_ H-40
MDR SH-25

Tollable Traffic
ADT
Car / Jeep /Taxi 5414 5932 1288 7241 1472 343 823 3563 991
Mini Bus 130 139 15 212 139 9 5 308 10
Standard Bus (Govt.) 281 363 312 581 242 6 6 183 12
Standard Bus (Pvt.) 357 284 25 147 57 39 14 91 16
LCV (Pass) 920 488 42 367 430 147 144 761 130
LCV (Goods) 1586 755 771 1710 187 69 48 239 613
2-Axle 1559 2423 732 892 137 334 97 697 344
3-Axle 3031 3651 1063 1407 122 85 182 474 505
4 to 6 axle 1592 2067 282 734 67 6 42 163 27
Others 30 33 7 15 46 6 7 14 2
Total Tollable (Nos.) 14900 16135 4537 13306 2899 1044 1368 6493 2650
Total Tollable (PCUs) 32306 37569 10216 23104 4720 2118 2226 10636 4879

Non – Tollable Traffic


Vehicle Type ADT
Two Wheeler 4724 5458 1589 9566 3784 2467 2605 5295 3734

3 Wheeler 829 461 427 2445 102 109 189 159 627
Tractor 410 380 373 136 341 45 25 98 99
Tractor with Trailer 114 59 48 201 33 112 175 22 25

Cycle 561 1642 957 2789 728 823 1772 848 1172
Cycle Rickshaw 12 12 8 91 8 3 10 29 14
Animal cart 23 14 15 38 28 0 9 3 5
Hand Cart 0 5 2 7 0 0 0 39 1
Others Slow Moving 0 0 6 2 2 0 0 2 23
Vehicle
Toll Exempted Vehicles 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0

Total NonTollable (Nos.) 6673 8031 3425 15311 5026 3559 4785 6495 5700
Total NonTollable (PCUs) 4762 4970 2594 10216 3204 2332 3277 3672 3425
Grand Total (Nos.) 21573 24166 7962 28617 7925 4603 6153 12988 8350
Grand Total (PCUs) 37068 42538 12810 33320 7924 4449 5502 14307 8304

Table 4.3: Average Daily Traffic at Various Traffic Locations

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Maximum ADT was observed at NH 2 near Nangal Dalap (42538 PCU), followed by traffic
on NH-2 near Dabrai (37068). However, traffic observed on Firozabad – Fatehabad
Road_MDR is the minimum (4449 PCu).

4.4.3 Daily Variation of Traffic

Daily variation of traffic during different days of week at 9 traffic survey locations in terms
of PCUs were analyzed.

The daily variation of traffic at various count station shown in Figure 5.2 indicates that the
traffic is more or less uniform throughout the week.

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Fig: 4.2 Daily variation of Traffic at Various Count station

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4.4.4 Peak Hour Traffic

The peak hour traffic at classified locations is presented in Table 5.4. The peak hour volume
varies from 377 PCUs at Fatehabad Firozabad road to 2100 PCUs at Nagal Dalap on NH-2.
The hourly variation of traffic at various count stations is shown in Figure 5.3.

Location Peak Hour Volume Peak Hour Time


(PCUs) percentage
NH-2 near Dabrai between 1976 5.33 22:00-23:00
Firozabad & Shikohabad
NH-2 near Nagal Dalap between 2100 4.94 20:00-21:00
Etawah & Auryia
NH-91 near Araul 697 5.43 9:00-10:00
NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km 1875 5.63 17:00-18:00
from NH-25A
SH-62 near Fatehabad 598 7.55 14:00-15:00
MDR Firozabad – Fatehabad Road 377 8.53 17:00-18:00
near Yamuna
SH-21 near Tirwaganj 413 7.53 11:00-12:00
SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 967 6.77 10:00-11:00
km
from Malihabad)
SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge 569 6.85 10:00-11:00

Table(4.4)- Peak hour on Various Count Stations

The peak hour factor for assessment of expressway capacity has been taken as an average of
NH-2 and NH-91 which comes out to be 5.2%.

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Figure 4.3: Hourly Variation of Traffic at Various Count Stations

4.4.5 Composition of Traffic

The composition of tollable and total traffic at count locations is presented in Table 5.5,
Table 5.6 and Figure 5.4. The share of cars/jeeps varies between 7% and 26% while 3-
wheelers vary from 1% to 8%, whereas trucks constitute about 9% to 35% of traffic. The
buses constitute 0% to 6% of traffic.

Passenger Vehicles Goods Slow Tractor


Location Vehicles Moving s
Vehicle

Car 2W 3W Buse LCV Truc


s k
Near Dabrai_NH2 24% 22% 4% 4% 12% 29% 3% 2%

Near Nangal 24% 22% 2% 3% 5% 35% 7% 2%


Dalap_NH2
Near Araul_NH-91 15% 21% 6% 5% 10% 25% 13% 5%

Near Nidhasan_NH-24 24% 35% 9% 3% 7% 10% 11% 1%

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Near Fatehabad_SH-62 17% 49% 1% 6% 7% 5% 10% 5%

Firozabad – Fatehabad 7% 55% 2% 1% 5% 9% 18% 3%


Road_MDR

Near Tirwaganj_SH-21 13% 43% 3% 0% 3% 5% 30% 3%

Near Amarpali 26% 42% 1% 5% 8% 10% 7% 1%


Cottages_SH-25

Near Maharajganj 11% 46% 8% 0% 9% 10% 15% 1%


Bridge_SH-40

Table (4.5) -Total Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations

Location Passenger Vehicles Goods Vehicles Other


Car LCV Mini Buse LCV 2 3 Axle 4-6 s
Pass. Bus s Axle Axle
Near Dabrai_NH2 35% 6% 1% 4% 11% 11% 21% 11% 0%
Near Nangal 35% 3% 1% 4% 5% 16% 23% 13% 0%
Dalap_NH2
Near Araul_NH-91 28% 1% 0% 8% 17% 16% 24% 6% 0%
Near Nidhasan_NH- 53% 3% 2% 6% 13% 7% 11% 5% 0%
24
Near Fatehabad_SH- 50% 15% 5% 11% 6% 5% 4% 2% 2%
62
Firozabad – 32% 14% 1% 5% 6% 32% 8% 1% 1%
Fatehabad
Road_MDR
Near Tirwaganj_SH- 59% 11% 0% 2% 4% 7% 13% 3% 1%
21
Near Amarpali 54% 12% 5% 5% 4% 11% 7% 2% 0%
Cottages_SH-25
Near Maharajganj 37% 5% 1% 1% 23% 13% 19% 1% 0%
Bridge_SH-40

Table 4.6: Tollable Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations

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Figure 4.4 : Tollable Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations

4.4.6 Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

Seasonal variation factors by vehicle types are required to account for variations in the
pattern of traffic volume on the project road sections over different seasons of the year. These
factors are worked out based on the month wise fuel sales data collected along the roads
where the survey was carried out. The vehicle wise seasonal correction factors adopted are
presented in Table 5.7.

Mode Near Near Near Near Near Firozab Near Near Near
Dabr Nangal Araul Nidhas Fatehab ad – Tirwag Amarpali Maharajgan
ai Dalap_ _NH- an_NH ad_SH- Fatehab anj_S Cottages_ j
NH2 91 -24 62 ad H-21 SH-25 Bridge_SH-
Road_M 40
DR
Perol 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95
Drive
n

Diesel 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
Drive
n

Bus 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Table 4.7: Seasonal Correction Factors

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The seasonality factors presented above are used to convert Average Daily Traffic to Average
Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) for various homogeneous sections of the project road. Section
wise AADT thus obtained is shown in Table 5.8

Vehicle Ne Near Near Near Near Firozab Near Near Near


Type ar Nangal Araul_ Nidhasan Fatehaba ad – Tirwagan Amarpal Mahara
Da Dalap_ NH-91 _NH- d_SH- Fateha j_SH- i jganj
brai NH2 24 62 bad 21 Cottages Bridge_
_N Road_ _SH- SH-40
H2 MDR 25
Tollable
Traffic
AADT

Car / 5143 5813 1172 6589 1340 312 749 3242 444
Jeep /
Taxi

Mini Bus 130 139 15 212 139 9 5 308 6

Standard 281 363 312 581 242 6 6 308 7


Bus
(Govt.)
Standard 357 284 25 147 57 39 14 91 7
Bus
(Pvt.)

LCV 911 522 39 341 400 137 134 708 65


(Pass)

LCV 1570 808 717 1590 174 64 45 222 272


(Goods)

2-Axle 1543 2593 681 830 127 311 90 648 146

3-Axle 3001 3907 989 1309 113 79 169 441 239

4 to 6 1576 2212 262 683 62 6 39 152 8


axle

Others 30 35 7 14 43 6 7 13 2

Total 14542 16676 4219 12296 2697 969 125 6008 1196
Tollable
(Nos.)

Table 4.8: Section wise AADT

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4.5. Estimation of Traffic growth rates by Elasticity Method

Investment priorities are governed by traffic demand, assessed benefits and cost of the
project. Demand plays the important role, which governs which type of facility /
infrastructure to be created. This in turn determines likely benefits and costs to develop the
same. A highway project of this nature calls for significant investment. Prediction of traffic
demand becomes an important task and has to be carried out as accurately as possible.
Accurate estimation of traffic has direct bearing on the viability of the project. Recognizing
this, efforts need to be made to carefully assess all the parameters that help in predicting the
traffic demand in future, which necessitates realistic estimation of traffic growth rates. Traffic
growth on a road facility is generally estimated on the basis of historical trends. In the present
case, traffic growth rates are estimated using elasticity method as per IRC-108-1996. Demand
changes are usually because of shifts in the pattern of economic activities in the surrounding
regions. Hence, future traffic estimation necessitates a preview, however imprecise, of the
probable pattern of future growth of the economy.

In the absence of historical traffic census data on the project road, the future traffic has been
forecasted using transport demand elasticity approach by regression of registered vehicles of
Delhi and Uttar Pradesh with respect to socio-economic parameters viz., population, PCI,
NSDP and GDP as explained below.

4.6 Traffic Forcasting Methodology

The exercise of traffic growth rate estimation has been carried out by us using the elasticity
approach. The elasticity method relates traffic growth to changes in the related economic
parameters. According to IRC-108, 1996, elasticity based econometric model for highway
projects could be derived in the following form:

Log e (P) = A0 + A1 Log e (EI)

Where:
P = Traffic volume (of any vehicle type)
EI = Economic Indicator (GDP/NSDP/Population/PCI)
A0 = Regression constant;
A1 = Regression co-efficient (Elasticity Index)

The main steps followed are:

 Defining the Project Influence Area from OD analysis of travel pattern


 Estimating the past elasticity of traffic growth from time series of registered vehicles
of influencing states
 Assessment of future elasticity values for major vehicle groups, namely, cars, buses
and trucks
 Study of past performance and assessment of prospective growth rates of state
economies of influence area

The growth rates are found using the formulae Eqn (a) & (b).

For Passenger vehicles,

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G=Σ[(R*E*I)UP]……………….Eqn. (a)

Where,

Ri = Growth in PCI and Population index of Delhi and Uttar Pradesh


E = Elasticity Value

For commercial vehicles,

G=Σ [(R*E*I) UP, (R*E*I) DL, (R*E*I) RoI]……………...Eqn. (b)

Where,

R = Economic index (NSDP)


E = Elasticity Value
I = Influence factor

4.7. Project influence area

A study of the socio-economic profiles of the regions comprising the project influence area
(PIA) provides an overview of the factors likely to influence the pattern of economic
development, and hence the flows and volumes of traffic on the proposed highway. The
details include population, per-capita Income, NSDP, GDP and targeted growth rates of the
economy. The profiles help to generate basic inputs for the estimation of future growth in
transport demand on the basis of past scenarios, prospective changes in transport demand
elasticity and economic growth rates. From OD survey analysis along project road, share
within Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and Rest of India has been considered as shown in the table
below in estimating the growth rates.

Vehicle Type Uttar Pradesh Delhi Rest of India


Goods Vehicles 60% 12% 28%

4.8 Growth of Registered Vehicles in Project Influence area

In order to analyze the vehicle growth in the state, the vehicle registration data of Uttar
Pradesh, Delhi and India have been collected. The Compounded Average Growth Rate (%) of
different vehicle types is shown in Table 5.10 to 5.12

Year Car 2w Bus Truck (UP)


2004-05 633855 5652044 121362 165123
2005-06 757019 6083655 136909 184428
2006-07 777682 7138789 139812 193465
2007-08 864465 7737237 133128 215825
2008-09 944825 8521198 150732 240433
2009-10 1071008 9493677 170570 268617
2010-11 1208699 10563850 199832 307058
CAGR 11.36 10.99 8.67 10.89

Table 4.9: Growth of Vehicle Registration in Uttar Pradesh

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Year Car 2w Bus Truck (UP)

2004-05 1445149 2844004 24235 140982

2005-06 1487334 3062536 43500 141996

2006-07 1614830 3299838 46581 149972

2007-08 1760399 3578199 52763 160726

2008-09 1899442 3797943 55148 175250

2009-10 2058920 4055229 58047 193205

2010-11 2231281 4342403 61471 209370

CAGR 7.60 7.26 14.89 7.17

Source: www.delhi.gov.in

Table 4.10: Growth of Vehicle Registration in Delhi

Year Trucks (All India)


2004-05 4031000
2005-06 4436000
2006-07 5119000
2007-08 5601000
2008-09 6041000
2009-10 6432000
2010-11 7064000
GR 9.80%
Source: MORTH

Table 4.11: Growth of Vehicle Registration of Trucks (All India)

4.9. Economic Growth of the States and All=India

The past performance of the economic indicators for the project influence area (PIA) was also
collected for the same period (2004-05), with the objective of establishing elasticity of travel
demand to the different economic indicators. The economic indicators considered for the
analysis include:

 Net State Domestic Product and Net National Domestic Product


 Per Capita Income (PCI)
 Population

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Table 5.11 to 5.14 gives the growth of Economic indicators for Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and Rest
of India.

Year Population PCI (Rs.) NSDP (Billion)


2004-05 178400772 12950 2310.29
2005-06 181862402 13445 2445.14
2006-07 185334597 14241 2639.35
2007-08 188807395 14875 2808.51
2008-09 192319735 15713 3021.92
2009-10 195844021 16374 3206.75
2010-11 199347512 17349 3458.48
CAGR 1.87% 4.99% 6.96%

Table 5.12: Growth in Economic Indices of Uttar Pradesh State (at 2004-05 Prices)

Year NSDP (Rs lacs) Population PCI (Rs)


2004-05 9471686 14828000 63877
2005-06 10447341 15113000 69128
2006-07 11744414 15404000 76243
2007-08 13068304 15699000 83243
2008-09 14696123 16001000 91845
2009-10 16316079 16308000 100050
2010-11 18097372 16622000 108876
2011-12 20165273 16941000 119032
CAGR 11.40% 1.92% 9.30%

Table 4.13: Growth in Economic Indices of Delhi at 2004-05 Prices

Year GDP (Billion Rs.)


2004-05 29714.54
2005-06 32530.73
2006-07 35643.64
2007-08 38966.36
2008-09 41586.76
2009-10 45076.37
2010-11 48859.54
GR 8.64%

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Table 4.14: Growth in Economic Indices of All India at 2004-05 Prices

4.10. Forcasted Traffic Total

Normal Traffic: The normal traffic is the traffic at present which is likely plying on the
proposed project road.

Diverted Traffic: The diverted traffic is the traffic that may divert to the alternative route
when toll is imposed on the project road due to resultant savings in the generalized cost.

Development Traffic: Generated traffic is the traffic that may be generated due industrial
developments coming up along or in the close vicinity of the project road.

Generated/Induced Traffic: This traffic is likely to come on to the expressway as a result of


new facility being provided.

Total Traffic: The total traffic including diverted traffic, development traffic and
generated traffic, if any.

Diverted Traffic

Diverted traffic has been worked out for the traffic moving between different sections of the
project road. There are two existing alternative routes for the traffic moving between Link 1-
2 other than Project Road. These routes are either via NH-2, NH-91 & SH-40 or via NH-2 &
NH-25.

A) Alternative route for the Traffic Moving Between Link 1 and Link 9:

Figure 4.5: Alternative Routes for Link 1- 9

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Alternative route Via NH-2 + NH-91 + SH-40: Traffic Coming from Agra or beyond Agra
and destined to Lucknow, the combination of NH-2, NH-91 & SH-40 as acts as Alternative
Road against the proposed Expressway.

Alternative Route-1
Existing Route Length (km) Lane Condition Type of Road
Configuration
NH-2 52.00 6L Excellent NH
2L Good NH & SH
Project Route
Link Length Lane Condition Type of Road
(km) Configuration
Link 1 to Link 269.86 6L Excellent Expressway
9

Table 4.15. Details of Alternate Road via NH-2, NH-91 & SH-40 and Project Road (Expressway)

Vehicle Type (% Diversion to Project Road) in the Base Year (2013-14)


Cars 73.74
Pvt Bus 91.21
LCV 75.16
2-Axle Trucks 74.65
3-Axle Trucks 64.39
MAV 72.43

Table 4.16. Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Alternate Road

B) Alternative Route Between Link 1 and Other Interchanges:

Alternate Routes between Link 1 and Other Interchanges: For the traffic moving from Agra
or beyond Agra several routes are serve as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially
shown in Figure 5.2 to Figure 5.7.

Figure 4.6: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 7

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Figure 4.7: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 6

Figure 4.8: Alternative Routes for Link 1- 5

Figure 4.9: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 4

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Figure 4.10: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 3

Figure 4.11: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 2

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Table 4.17: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road

Table 4.18: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

C) Alternative Route Between Link 3 and Other Interchanges:

Vehicles coming from/or beyond Link 3 and destined to other Interchange points may prefer
several routes as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially shown in Figure 5.12 to
Figure 5.13.

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Figure 5.12: Alternative Routes for Link 3 – 7

Figure 5.13: Alternative Routes for Link 3 – 9

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Table 4.19: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road

Table 4.20: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

D) Alternative Route Between Link 4 and Other Interchanges:

Vehicles coming from/or beyond Link 4 and destined to other Interchange points may prefer
several routes as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially shown in Figure 5.14 to
Figure 5.15.

Figure 5.14: Alternative Routes for Link 4 – 7

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Figure 5.15: Alternative Routes for Link 4 – 9

Table 4.21: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road

Table 4.22: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

E) Alternative Route Between Link 5 and Other Interchanges:

Vehicles coming from/or beyond Link 5 and destined to other Interchange points may prefer
several routes as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially shown in Figure 5.16 to
Figure 5.18.

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Figure 5.16: Alternative Routes for Link 5 – 6

Figure 5.17: Alternative Routes between Link 5 – 7

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Table 4.23: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road

Table 4.24: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

F) Alternative Route Between Link 5 and Other Interchanges:

Vehicles coming from/or beyond Link 7 and destined to other Interchange points may prefer
several routes as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially shown in Figure 5.19

Figure 5.18: Alternative Routes for Link 7 – 9

Table 4.25: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road

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Table 4.26: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

Traffic Diversion Methdology

Cost ratio diversion curves have been used for estimating the diverted traffic from/to the
project road. In this approach, traffic likely to be diverted from project road to alternate route
is estimated using diversion curves, which computes the ratio of perceived costs on the
competitive/alternative facilities.

According to the model, the vehicle will shift if the perceived cost on the alternative road is
lower in comparison to project road. The rate of diversion is calculated using the diversion
curve/equations, which is similar to the Logit curve. These equations are presented in Table
5.19. The diversion curves for various vehicle types are shown in Figure 5.20.

Figure 5.19: Diversion Curves

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Table 4.27: Diversion Curve Equation

For calculating the cost ratio the generalized cost is considered on the project road (NH) and
alternative road. The generalized cost consists of three components vehicle operating cost
(VOC), value of time (VOT) and toll cost. Vehicle operating cost is calculated based on the
observed speed, traffic, road characteristics using IRC-SP-30. From the observed speed travel
times are calculated and VOT thereby. Toll cost is calculated using per km toll rates. The
potential divertible traffic is calculated using OD matrix for each vehicle type.
Using the above methodology the diverted traffic that may divert to alternative route from the
project road when the toll is imposed on the proposed road are calculated and presented in
Table 4.28.

Table 4.28: Final Diverted Traffic at Exit of Each Toll Plaza / Toll Booth

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Chapter 5

Cost Estimates

5.1 GENERAL

The cost estimates for the project are extremely important as its entire viability and
implementation depends on the project cost. Therefore, cost estimates and rate analysis of the
items have been carried out with due care. The project cost estimates have been prepared
considering various items of works associated with the identified proposals.

5.2 METHODOLOGY

Estimation of Preliminary cost, a primary pre-requisite for Economic and Financial


evaluation, has been carried out. The process involved in the preliminary cost estimation has
been described under the following sections.

Basic rates

The basic rates for each construction items were analyzed on the basis of Uttar Pradesh PWD
(National Highway) Standard Schedule of Rates (2012-2013) for material and Labour. The
basic rates for each construction items are analyzed on the basis of material study under taken
the prices of construction materials collected from various sources and on the anticipated
distance of source to the site of work. For items where these rates are not available, the rates
were adopted as per previous experience of the consultants / market rates.

Quantification of Items / Quantities

The construction items covered in cost estimates are: site clearance, earthwork in new
embankment subgrade, pavement in carriageways and shoulders, culverts, bridges, drainage
and protection works, parking and lay-byes, resettlements, land acquisition, environmental
protection, flyovers, electrification, toll plazas and miscellaneous items which includes
pavement markings, signs, guard rails, etc. Special consideration was given for the stretches
passing through hazardous conditions.

For estimation of quantities & costs, various work items have been grouped under the
following heads:

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Item Detailed Description

Site Clearance & Earthwork  Clearing and Grubbing, Removal of


stumps of felled trees
 Earth excavation
 Fill by excavated earth
 Sub-grade
 Earthen Shoulder

Sub-base & Base Course  Granular Sub-base


 Wet Mix Macadam

Bituminous Courses  Prime coat


 Tack Coat
 Dense Bituminous macadam
 Bituminous concrete

Bridges/  Structures on Main Expressway with


Service Road and Link
Polyurethane Paint
/Road Over Bridge
Cross Drainage Structures  RCC Box Culverts and Pipe Culverts

Drainage & Protective Works  Open Drain along with Expressway and
Service Road
Road furniture and safety works  Km stone, Hecto meter stone Guard
Stone Gantry Signs & Markings Lamp
Posts
Toll Plaza  Toll Plaza

Environmental Plan  Including plantation on median

Table 5.1: Project Cost

• The earthwork quantities like roadway excavation and embankment have been calculated
by MX software

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• The quantities for road pavement, base, sub-base etc. for main carriageway and
service roads have been calculated through applicable typical cross section.

Repairs to Bridges & Culverts

A study of the existing bridges and culverts has been carried out to ascertain the structure to
be retainedor reconstructed and the cost of the repairs, rehabilitation, and up-gradation for the
link
roads has been worked out by experienced bridge engineers and rehabilitation experts. The
cost has been included in the cost estimate under repair of bridges.

Summary of Adopted Rates


Summary of rates for major construction items are presented in Table

Sl. No. Description Unit Rate in Rs.

1 Embankment Cum 276

2 Sub-grade Cum 333

3 GSB(Granular sub-base) Cum 2216

4 WMM(wet mix macadam) Cum 2561

5 Primer coat Sq.m 28

6 Tack coat with 0.275kg/ sqm Sq.m 13

7 Tack coat with 0.225kg/ sqm Sq.m 10

8 DBM(dense bituminous macadam) Cum 9166

9 Bituminous concrete (Grading-l) cum 10887

Table 5.2 : Summary of Rates for Major Construction Items

5.3 SPECIFICATIONS

The Specifications for various items of work have been assumed to follow the Guidelines for
Expressway and Manual of Specifications and Standards for Six-lane of highways through
PPP (public private partnership) published by IRC, Government of India.

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5.4 COST ESTIMATES

The Cost Estimates have been estimated for the project expressway and link roads. Cost
estimate includes cost for six lanes expressway with future widening to 8 lanes; the cost of
structures has been adopted for eight lanes. The cost estimate also includes cost for link roads
having 2 lanes with paved shoulder. The summary of cost estimates is given inTable

SUMMARY OF COST
Sr. Particulars Amount
No.
1 Bill No. 1: Site clearance and Dismantling 163,571,209
2 Bill No. 2 : Earth Work 19,224,101,904
3 Bill No. 3 : Grannular Sub Base Courses and Base Courses ( Non- Bituminous 17,549,609,091
)
4 Bill No. 4 : Bituminous Courses 17,762,721,962
5 Bill No. 5 : Culverts 573,809,371
6 Bill No. 6A : Minor Bridges 2,663,005,361
7 Bil No. 6B : Major Bridges 4,517,061,706
8 Bill No. 6C :Repair & Rehabilitation (Bridges and Culverts) 8,397,328
9 Bill No. 6D : FO, ROB 2,366,828,713
10 Bill No. 6E : VUP/PUP 3,046,016,675
11 Bill No. 6F : Re Wall 1,655,437,043
12 Link Road (Structure Cost) 227,047,862.87
13 Bill No. 7 : Drainage & Protective Works 1,865,457,752
14 Bill No. 8 : Traffic signs, Road markings and other road appurtunences 4,082,621,308
15 Bill No. 9: Toll Plaza 196,836,624
16 Bill No. 10: Wayside Amenities 400,448,264
17 Bill No. 11 : Enviormental Plan 175,035,584.34
18 Bill No. 12 : Miscellaneous Works 757,403,050

Total Civil Cost 77,235,410,809


TPC (25% of Civil Cost) 96,544,263,511

Table 5.3 : Summary of Cost

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Chapter-6

Financial Analysis

6.1 PROJECT FINANCIALS

The project financials have been worked out using the traffic, toll rates and other financial
assumptions as presented in the subsequent sections.

6.2 Key Assumptions:-


The main assumptions made for undertaking the financial analysis are as follows:

1) Project Cost:-The project cost for the project has been considered as Rs. 9,654 Crore.

2) An additional cost of Rs. 500 Crores (current cost) has been considered as upgradation cost
of 6Lane expressway to 8 Lane expressway, phased in two years i.e. 2037 -38 (40%) and
2038 – 39(60%). The cost has been escalated by 5% p.a. to arrive at 2037-38 level.

3) Project Phasing: The development phasing for the Project has been considered as follows:

Year starting Apr 1,14 Apr 1,15 Apr 1,16

Year ending Mar31,15 Mar31,16 Mar31,17

Year 1 2 3

% age of cost incurred 20% 40% 40%

Table 6.1 : Key Assumptions

4) Escalation: A 5% escalation over the EPC cost has been considered during the construction
period.

5) A Debt: Equity ratio of 70:30 has been assumed.

6) Period of Analysis: The construction period for the project has been assumed as three years.
The total concession period considered for the purpose of analysis is 30 Years.

7) Additional revenue of 2.5% of total revenue has been considered as revenue from other
sources such as advertising etc.

8) Repayment Period: A term loan repayment period of 12 years has been considered with
amoratorium of 3 years during the operations period. The total door-to-door debt tenure
works out to 18 (3+3+12) years. Structured repayment approach has been considered for
amortization of debt.

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9) Interest on Debt has been assumed at 11.5% pa throughout the debt tenure.

10) Taxation: Tax cost has also been considered to get a picture of the net earnings estimated to
accrue to the project. The tax rates have been taken as follows:

Tax component Corporate Mat

Base tax rate 30.00% 18.50%

Surcharge 5.00% 5.00%

Education cess 3.00% 3.00%

Effective rate 32.45% 20.01%

Table 6.2 : Taxation

While estimating the tax liability, whichever is higher of Corporate Tax or MAT, has been
considered.

11) Depreciation: The depreciation on the project components have been calculated using the
Straight Line Method (SLM) for Book Depreciation and Written Down Value (WDV)
method for Tax Depreciation.

12) Grant of 40% of the project cost has been considered for the analysis.

6.3 Land Cost

Based on the assumptions as provided in the previous section, the landed cost of the project with 40%
grant from government will be:

Start date 01Apr14 01Apr 15 01Apr1


6
End date 31 Mar 15 31 Mar16 31Mar
17
Escalation 1.00 1.05 1.10

Project cost including escalation & other charge 9654 1931 3862 3862

IDC 492 3 124 366

Total project cost 10146 1934 3985 4227

Table 6.3 : Land Cost

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6.4 Funding:-
The funding of the project with 40% grant is as provided in the table below:

Funding - - Y1 Y2 Y3

Debt 70% 4262 55 2041 2165

Equity 30% 1826 1826 - -

Grant 40% 4059 52 1944 2062

Total 10146 1934 3985 4227

Table 6.4 : Funding

7.5 Financial Indicators:-

Based on the above stated inputs, the exercise of financial analysis has been carried out for
the proposed project.

1) (Post-Tax) Project - Internal Rate of Return (PIRR):-

IRR indicates the return a project will generate over a period of time. It is that rate of
discount, whichmakes the Net Present Value equal to zero. Internal Rate of Return on Project
is the return on the total project.

2) (Post-Tax) Equity - Internal Rate of Return (E-IRR):-

IRR indicates the return a project will generate over a period of time. It is that rate of
discount, which makes the Net Present Value equal to zero. Internal Rate of Return on Equity
(E-IRR) is the return thataccrues on the equity investment. The return for viability depends
upon the expectation from theinvestment and accounts for taxes, interest, loan repayment, etc.
The financial analysis has been carried out using the inputs as already explained above. The
outputs for thefinancial indicators are shown in the table below:

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Chapter-7
Reference

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agra_Lucknow_Expressway
2. http://www.masterplansindia.com/expressways/india-longest-agra-lucknow-
expressway-20-facts-to-know
3. http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/pocketmaps/agralucknow.htm
4. www.upeida.in/agra_lko_expressway_feasibility_report.
5. www.delhi.gov.in
6. MoSRT&H
7. IRC-64-1990
8. IRC: 22
9. IRC: 6
10. IRC: 83 (Part II)
11. IS: 1786
12. IS: 432 (Part I).
13. IRC: 112.
14. IRC: SP 13
15. Pocket Book for Highway Engineers (Second Revision) published by the IRC,
NewDelhi in 2002

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