This volume belongs to set number “lc of 1000, of CYCLES CLASSIC LIBRARY COLLECTION The Foundation for the Study of Cycles 124 S. Highland Ave. Pittsburgh, PA 15206 (412) 441-1666 JUNE 1987CYCLES THE SCIENGE OF PREDICTION by EDWARD R,. DEWEY and EDWIN F. DAKINIL Ut Iv ¥v VI vu VOL 1x XI XI XU XIV xv XVI Contents Charts and Diagrams Concerning Economic Prediction An Introduction: Why Trends Are Important Patterns in Growth of Organisms The Growth Trend in Our Basic Industries Trends in Some Other Industries Some Rhythmic Gycles in Natural Phenomena The sq-Year Rhythm The 9-Year Rhythm The 33-Year Rhythm The 18-Year Rhythm Causes, Gorrelations, Conjectures Analysis and Synthesis Timing @ Business Avoiding Some Economic Hlusions War and lis Dislocations Postwar Trends Postwar Rhythms Arrenprx [ Aprenprx IT Aprenprx UTCharts and Diagrams CHAPTER I Fre. 1, Trend of a Hypothetical Business Organization 4 The Prend and the Cycle 3 Growsh of Industrial Production in the United States 4, Index of Spanish Trade CHAPTER 11 1. Growth in Body Weight of aMale While Rat 2. Growth in Weight of a Pumpkin 3+ Growth of « Poputation of Yeast Cells 4. Growth of a Population of Fruit Flies § Growth of the Pojrulation of Sweden. 6. Growth of the Population of the United States 7. Growth of the Pofulation of France 8. Growth of the Indigenous Mative Population of Algeria 5 Growth of she Population of Germany cuarire ot 1, Population of Continental U. 2, U.S. Manufactures, 2830-1045 4. U.S, Merchandise Exports, 2830-1045 4. U.S. Merchandise Imports, 2850-043 § U.S. Tron and Steel Production 6, Steam Railways 4 o 0. 1830-1949 U.S. Shipbuilding, 1830-1995 U.S. Automobile Production, 7900-194 Value of U.S, Hotse-Drawn Vehicte Praduction, 1839-r030 » Cattle an U.§. Farms, January 1840-1044 . U.S. Corn Production, 1839-1045 az. U.S. Cotton Production, 1830-194 5 1g. U.S. Wool Production, 1840-1943 1g. U.S. Wheat Production, 1839-1045 15 Malt Liquor in the United States [vi] PAGE 12 8 13 44 45 36 q ag 24 25 26 2p 20 3 ae 38 ot 36 37 37 38CHARTS AND DIAGRAMS 1h, U.S. Lumber Production, 2839-2945 19. U.S. Cotton Spindies in Operation, 1839-1045 18, U.S. Coal Production, 1840-1943 19. U.S. Smelter Copper Productions, 850-194 20, U.S. Refined Primary Lead Production, 1830-193 GWAPTER I¥ 1, ES. Rayon Yarn Consumption, rarrro45 2, U.S, Aircraft Production, 1914-1944 3. U.S, Blectric Energy Production, ro07—1945 4 Value of U.S. Nedural Gas Produetion, 1882-1943 5. U.S. Petraleum Production, 1859-1955 6. U.S. Paper and Wood Putfp Production, 1839-1946 4. U.S. Tobacco Production, 2830-ras5 8, Trends of Parious U.S. Industries CHAPTER V 1, Abundance of Atlantic Sadmon 2. Abundatice of Lynx g Abundance of Tent Caterpillars 4. Ozone at London (Kew) and Paris g. The 93-Year Rhythm in insects, Fish, Mammals, Man, ond Ozone 6. Abundance of Mice Folesand Foxes . Solar and Terrestriat Data 9, Variation in Hunan Emotion 10. Deaths from Pneumonia 11, Deaths from Influenza 1g, Tree Growth 13. Flower Growth 14. Abundance of Swnspots 15. Variation in Terrestrial Magnetism. 16, Synthesis of Two Cyeles 17. Synthesis of Pwo Cycles 18, Synthesis of Four Cyctes CHAPTER vr 1, U.S. Average Wholesaie Prices Average Wholesale Prices, Excepting War Peaks g. 680 Years of Wheat Prices in England 4o The 54-Year Rhythm in Wheat Pricesin England 5. Long Waves in World Wholesale Prices [viil Par 39 39 40 o 4“ 48 “4 45 45 46 47 48 49 50CHARTS AND DIAGRAMS 6 World Faterrelationships: Prices and Exports 7. Long Waves in Wages 8. Quotations of Piterest- Bearing Securities g The Long Wave in Coal 10, Pigdran and Lead Production in England 11. Long Waues in Prices CHAPTER VIE « The Year Rhythm in Prices U.S. Common Stock Prices The g-Year Rhythm in Common Stock Prices U. 8, Wholesale Prices, 1830-ro¢5 The 9-Year Rivythm in Wholesate Prices An Individual Business . Recapitilation, the 9-Fear Rhythra Synthesis: U. 8, Wholesale Prices Gold Prices and Currency Be ey ee see CMAPTER VT 1, The 314-Year Rhythm in Industrial Production x. Rate of Change in Industrial Production g The 34-Year Rhythm in Pig Iron Production 4. Rate of Ghange in Pig Iron Production. g The 3\4-Year Rhythm in Common Stock Prices 6, Rate of Change in Common Stock Prices CHAPTER 1x The 184g-Year Rhythm in Real Estate Activity . The 18%4-Year Rhythr in Building Aetivity The 183¢-Year Rkythm in Marriages The 1844-Year Rhythm in Wheat Acreage Brick Production Building Construction in Hamburg New York Skyscrapers Chicago Skyscrapers 9. Pig tron 10, The 1914-Year Rhythm in Loans and Discounts 11, The 183¢-Year Rhythin in Railroad Stock Prices 12, The 181¢-Year Rhythm in Coramon Stock Prices 13. The 814-Year Rhythm in Comiaon Stock Prices 14. The 1814-Year Rhythm in the Sales of an Industrial Company [viii] pepe axiee a 80 So 81 8 89 oa 9 93 93 ae 95 96 a7 8 1of-105 104-105 108-107 106-107 aro“ 16-117 ai8-119, 120 120 ran aaa 133 133 124 130 131 14 135 138CHARTS AND DIAGRAMS CHAPTER x Fre. 1. Residential Building 2. Pextiles 3. Sugar Prices 4e Cattle Prices 5. Pepper Prices 6. Sales ofan Industrial Company te Sunspots and Production 8. Solar Phenomena and Business Activity g. Sola Radiation and Stock Prices 10, Sunpate and Stock Prices 11. Wave Spectrum 12, Sunspot Cycles 1g, Skeletonized Representation of the r8'hg-Year Ritytien in Sunsprot Numbers 14. Other Suaspot Cyeles and Prices CHAPTER xt 1. Galton’s Quincuns 2. Frequency Distrébuation g- Bearing Batls 4 Sound Syrethesis — Two Components g. Sound Syethesis — Twelve Components 6. Tide Prediction GHAPTER xtr 1, A Sales Ghurt 2, d Rate of Growth Chart 3. Two Regular Cycles 4. Sprchesis: 5. The Trend Line 6. Trend Line and Cycles 5. Projection and Goreprarison 8 An Enlargement Sales of en Inclustrial Compary, 2871-1940 10, Analysis an, Synthesis a2, Sales, 29a7-rypt, of Another Industrial Company Analysis Synthesis Comparison © [ix] Fact 1y6 136 137 17 138 138-139 us M3 144 M45 150-15 153 154 136 162 fy, 183 LetCHARTS AND DIAGRAMS vie. 16. Projection 47. Final Synthesis 18, Diagrammatic Representation of the 54-Year, 1836-Year, 9 Year, and aritonth Khythms CHAPTER XIIT 1. Hlusion CHAPTER XIV VA, First Chinese Epoch (Soo years: 221 B.G~8.b. 588), 1B, Second Chinese Epoch (glo years: 5894.0. 1367) . uC, Third Chinese Epoch (Ax, 1368 to present). 2. War-Time Distortion a. Pensistence of Wave Influence 4. Interest Bearing Debt of the United States CHAPTER Xv 1. U.S, Patents sued, 1837-1944 CHAPTER XVI 1, Profits in the Steel Industry, 1901-1945 APPENDIX 1 1, Equal Rate of Growth — Arithmetic Scale 2, Equal Rate of Growts — Ratio Scale g Equal Amount of Growth — Ratio Scale 4. Equal Amounts of Growth — Arithmetic Scale 5. Trend of a Hypothetical Business Organization 6. The Trend and The Gycle Growth of Industrial Production in the United States 8. Index of Spanish Trade 1, Effect of Moving Average, of Dillerent Lengths upon an tdeal gVear Rhythm 2, Deviations of an Ideal g-Year Rhythm from Moving Averages of Different Lengths [x] PAGE 186, 187 ABB-189 197 208 208 208, 205 206 21g 240 za ar 243, a 244 245, 246 47 25 352Concerning Economic Prediction AN INTRODUCTION +18 the business of science ta predict. An exact science like e can usually make very accurate predictions indeed. A chemist makes a precise prediction every time he writes a formula, The nuclear physicist advertised to the world, in the atomic bomb, how man can deal with entities so small that they are completely beyond the realm of sense perception, yet make predictions astonishing in their accuracy and significance. Eco- nomics is now reaching a point where it can hope also to make rather accurate predictions, within limits which this study will explain, In these pages we shall be primarily concerned with a new ap- proach to economics and the problem of economic forecast, with the near-term future of the United States particularly in mind. This approach moves partly through some avenues that in the past have been the province of ather sciences as various as biol- ogy, psychology, and mathematics. “The study here falls into two parts. First, it shows that rhythm and periodicity exist in the natural world, and that our economic world, analyzed with similar statistical tools, also displays cur- vilinear forms and distinct rhythms, Second, it deals with some of the ideas which underlie these facts, suggests implications which seem safely implicit in them, and indicates some meanings which such facts hold for all of us. [xi]