REPRESENTING COTTON GROWERS THROUGHOUT ALABAMA, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND VIRGINIA

COTTON MARKETING NEWS

Volume 16, No. 5 April 20, 2018

Exports continue to do well although the latest weekly report

Sponsored by showed a slowing of shipments. For the 7-day period ending
April 12, sales were 304,000 bales. This compares to 185,700
bales for the prior week and 311,775 bales average for the prior
The March to 80 Cents 4 weeks. Shipments were 342,400 compared to 527,500 bales
for the prior week and 486,950 bales for the prior 4 weeks.
Eighty-cent cotton is within sight. Prices (Dec futures) trended
down this week but rebounded on Thursday and Friday—closing Cumulative sales for the 2017 crop marketing year are 16.4
at 79.43 cents today. Dec broke 79 cents for the first time and million bales as of April 12. Shipments total 9.5 million bales—
gained 52 points for the week. 63% of USDA’s projection of 15 million for the marketing year
ending July 30. With a little over 15 weeks remaining in the
marketing year, shipments need to average about 360,000 bales
per week to reach USDA’s projection.
Dec18 Cotton Futures This Week
Drought conditions continue on the Texas Plains and conditions
are getting dry across some areas of the Southeast. Rainfall is
expected in both areas over the weekend but may be light and
not enough to change conditions measurably.

Some producers began and priced some of their expected 2018

production between 72 and 75 cents. Others waited or added
more at 75 to 78 cents. Now, here we are within a chip shot of
80 cents. This will be an opportunity to add further to previous
sales or make it your first opportunity. It’s all good.

USDA released its April crop production and supply and demand
numbers earlier this week. The highlights include: US growers are expected to plant 13.5 million acres this year—up
 As expected, projected US exports for the 2017 crop year 7% from last year and acreage could end even higher. For the
were increased 200,000 bales to 15 million bales. There were moment, the market is focused on good exports, World use, and
no other changes from the March estimates; ending stocks a wait-and-see attitude on the increased acreage due to the
were lowered by 200,000. uncertain situation in Texas.
 A 900,000 bale reduction in beginning stocks for the 2017
crop year due to revisions from prior years The move this week should add to support at 77-78 cents. The
 A net 240,000 bale increase in 2017/18 marketing year World 400,000 bale decline in use is a little concerning but such a
production including a 700,000 bale increase in the Brazil revision was also made a couple of months ago, only to be
crop. All other major producing countries were unchanged followed by a revision up. But this is worth keeping an eye on.
from the March estimate. Price depends on crop condition, exports, and demand.
 A 400,000 bale reduction in expected World use, with
300,000 of this in India.
 This 300,000 bale reduction in use for India was offset by an Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics
equal increase in exports. Exports for Australia were
increased 200,000 bales.
 No changes in China from the March report.
 Imports for Vietnam were increased 100,000 bales, Pakistan
donshur@uga.edu / 229-386-3512 or 229-386-7275
increased 200,000, and Indonesia reduced 100,000 bales.
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