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Email: vginn@texaspolicy.com
Website: www.texaspolicy.com
Twitter: @vanceginn
Outline
Information Texas’ economy, labor market, and
fiscal situation.
66%
9%
64%
7%
62%
5%
60%
56% 1%
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
6,500,000
U.S. MINUS TEXAS:
5,000,000 +6,783,000
3,500,000
2,000,000
TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT
500,000 TEXAS:
-1,000,000 +2,122,000
-2,500,000
U.S. minus Texas civilian
-4,000,000 employment wasn’t
positive until January 2015
-5,500,000
and didn’t surpass Texas
-7,000,000 until November 2015.
-8,500,000
N
12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016 12/2017
3,500,000
TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
2,000,000
500,000 TEXAS:
-1,000,000
+1,902,000
4% 4%
ANNUAL NONFARM JOB GROWTH RATE
2% 2%
0% 0%
-2% -2%
MARCH 2018
-4% -4%
U.S.: 1.5% CA: 1.9%
TX: 2.4% FL: 2.0%
-6% NY: 1.2% -6%
-8% -8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
9% NY: 4.6% 9%
7% 7%
5% 5%
3% 3%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Dallas Fed, Texas Economy Starts 2018 Firing on All Cylinders
Texas' Employed Population Rate
Remains Above Others Since 2008
66% 66%
March 2018
64% U.S.: 60.4% CA: 59.6% 64%
TX: 61.0% FL: 57.1%
NY: 57.9%
EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO
62% 62%
60% 60%
58% 58%
56% 56%
54% 54%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
64% 64%
62% 62%
60% 60%
58% 58%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$168
$160
$158
$150
$139
$140 $146
$120
2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17* 2018-19*
Source: Legislative Budget Board's Fiscal Size-Up and authors' calculations.
*indicates estimate.
Note: Find explanation here.
*Includes delayed $1.8 billion Proposition 7 transportation payment
Note: Find explanation here.
2018-19 Total Approps: $218.4 B
with $1.8 B transportation fund delay
(4.46% increase)
$58.5 B,
$71.8 B, Other $79.5 B,
Federal Health &
Funds $106.6 B, Human
General Services
Revenue
Email: vginn@texaspolicy.com
Website: www.texaspolicy.com
Twitter: @vanceginn