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Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most

commonly by analysis of trends. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of

interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to

formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to

less formal judgmental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example,

in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at

certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the

number of times floods will occur over a long period.

Qualitative vs. quantitative methods

Qualitative forecasting techniques are subjective, based on the opinion and judgment of consumers,

experts; they are appropriate when past data are not available. They are usually applied to intermediate- or

long-range decisions. Examples Delphi method, market research, historical lifecycle analogy.

Quantitative forecasting models are used to forecast future data as a function of past data. They are

appropriate to use when past numerical data is available and when it is reasonable to assume that some of

the patterns in the data are expected to continue into the future. These methods are usually applied to

short- or intermediate-range decisions. Examples of quantitative forecasting methods are last period

demand, simple and weighted N-Period moving averages, simple exponential smoothing, poisson process

model based forecasting [2] and multiplicative seasonal indexes. Previous research shows that different

methods may lead to different level of forecasting accuarcy. For example, GMDH neural network was

found to have better forecasting performance than the classical forecasting algorithms such as Single

Exponential Smooth, Double Exponential Smooth, ARIMA and back-propagation neural network.

Average approach

In this approach, the predictions of all future values are equal to the mean of the past data. This approach can

be used with any sort of data where past data is available. In time series notation:

Although the time series notation has been used here, the average approach can also be used for cross-sectional

data (when we are predicting unobserved values; values that are not included in the data set). Then, the

prediction for unobserved values is the average of the observed values.

Naïve approach

Naïve forecasts are the most cost-effective forecasting model, and provide a benchmark against which

more sophisticated models can be compared. This forecasting method is only suitable for time

series data Using the naïve approach, forecasts are produced that are equal to the last observed value. This

method works quite well for economic and financial time series, which often have patterns that are

difficult to reliably and accurately predict.[4] If the time series is believed to have seasonality, seasonal

naïve approach may be more appropriate where the forecasts are equal to the value from last season. The

naïve method may also use a drift, which will take the last observation plus the average change from the

first observation to the last observation.[4] In time series notation:

Drift method

A variation on the naïve method is to allow the forecasts to increase or decrease over time, where the

amount of change over time (called the drift) is set to be the average change seen in the historical data. So

the forecast for time T+ h is given by

This is equivalent to drawing a line between the first and last observation, and extrapolating it into the

future.

Time series methods

Time series methods use historical data as the basis of estimating future outcomes.

Causal / econometric forecasting methods

Some forecasting methods try to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is

being forecast. For example, including information about climate patterns might improve the ability of a

model to predict umbrella sales. Forecasting models often take account of regular seasonal variations. In

addition to climate, such variations can also be due to holidays and customs: for example, one might

predict that sales of college football apparel will be higher during the football season than during the off

season.

Several informal methods used in causal forecasting do not employ strict algorithms , but instead use the

judgment of the forecaster. Some forecasts take account of past relationships between variables: if one

variable has, for example, been approximately linearly related to another for a long period of time, it may

be appropriate to extrapolate such a relationship into the future, without necessarily understanding the

reasons for the relationship.

Judgmental methods

Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgement, opinions and

subjective probability estimates. Judgmental forecasting is used in cases where there is lack of historical

data or during completely new and unique market conditions.

Artificial intelligence methods

Artificial neural networks

Group method of data handling

Support vector machines

Often these are done today by specialized programs loosely labeled

Data mining

Machine Learning

Pattern Recognition

Electricity demand forecasts are extremely important for energy suppliers and other participants in

electric energy generation, transmission, distribution and markets. Accurate models for electric power

load forecasting are essential to the operation and planning of a utility company. Load forecasts are

extremely important for energy suppliers and other participants in electric energy generation,

transmission, distribution and markets. This paper presents a review of electricity demand forecasting

techniques. The various types of methodologies and models are included in the literature. Load

forecasting can be broadly divided into three categories: short-term forecasts which are usually from one

hour to one week, medium forecasts which are usually from a week to a year, and long-term forecasts

which are longer than a year. Based on the various types of studies presented in these papers, the load

forecasting techniques may be presented in three major groups: Traditional Forecasting technique,

Modified Traditional Technique and Soft Computing Technique.

Demand forecasting model parameters are automatically corrected to keep track of the changing load

conditions. Hence Demand forecasting is adaptive in nature and can also be used as an on-line software

package in the utilities control system. Next state vector is estimated using current prediction error and

the current weather data acquisition programs. State vector is determined by total historical data set

analysis. Switching between multiple and adaptive regression analysis is possible in this mode. The same

model as in the multiple regression section, by equation given below is used in this model .

-vector of adapted variables such as time, temperature, light intensity, wind speed, humidity, day type

(workday, weekend), etc., at -transposed vector of regression coefficients and et-Model error at time t.

Lu developed an adaptive Hammerstein model with an orthogonal escalator structure as well as a lattice

structure for joint processes. This model used a joint Hammerstein nonlinear time-varying functional

relationship between load and temperature. This algorithm performed better than the commonly used

RLS (Recursive Least-square) algorithm. Grady enhanced and applied the algorithm developed by Lu.

An improvement was obtained in the ability to forecast total system hourly load as far as 5 days

McDonald , presented an adaptive-time series model and simulated the effects of a direct load control

strategy. A composite model for load prediction composed of three components (nominal load, type load

and residual load) was developed by Park in .

The Time series methods appear to be among the most popular approaches that applied to STLF. Time

series methods are based on the assumption that the data have an internal structure, such as

autocorrelation, trend or seasonal variation. The first impetus of the approach is to accurately assemble a

pattern matching available data and then obtain the forecasted value with respect to time using the

established model. The next subsection discusses some of the time series models used for load

forecasting.

Auto-Regressive (AR) model can be used to model the load profile, If the load is assumed to be a linear

combination of previous loads, which is given by Liu as:

Where, Lk is the predicted load at time k (min), is a random load disturbance, αi , i =1…m are unknown

coefficients and above given equation is the auto regressive model of order m. The unknown coefficients

in equation can be tuned on-line using the well-known least mean square (LMS) algorithm of Mbamalu

and El-Hawary . Huang and Zhao proposed an autoregressive model with an optimum threshold

stratification algorithm and two periodical autoregressive (PAR) models for hourly load forecasting

respectively

Vapnik was the first to introduce SVM; it is a novel powerful machine learning method based on

statistical learning theory (SLT), which analyzes data and recognizes patterns, used for classification and

regression analysis. They combine generalization control with a technique to address the curse of

dimensionality . B.J.Chen et.al proved that temperature and other climate information is not much useful

for mid-term load forecasting and introduction of time series forecasting may improve the results . F. E.

H. Tay and L. J. Cao modified risk function of conventional support vector machines by penalizing

insensitive errors more heavily than the distant insensitive errors, they named this method as C-ascending

support vector machine. They conclude by a test that the C-ascending support vector machines with the

actually ordered sample data consistently forecast better than the standard support vector machines. X.

Tao et.al proposed a SVM based strategy to rand individual components according to their influence on

the load forecasting by limiting the number of features that cuts down the model capacity . To estimate

the relations between input and output variables Lee & Song further modified the Support Vector

Machine (SVM) by using an empirical inference model. This method was derived by modifying the risk

function of the standard SVM by using the concept of Locally Weighted Regression. The proposed

method proves useful to be in the field of process monitoring, optimization and quality control . G. S. Hu

et.al presented a new short term load forecasting method by conjunctive use of fuzzy C-mean clustering

algorithm and weighted support vector machines (WSVMs). They clustered input samples according to

the similarity degree [35]. Ying-Chun Guo showed that SVM based model provides a promising

arithmetic to forecasting electricity load than artificial neural network. The model overcomes the

disadvantages of general artificial neural network (ANN), such as it is not easy to converge, liable to trap

in partial minimum and unable to optimize globally, and the generalization of the model is not good, etc .

Jingmin Wang et.al proposed a new optimal model which is based on Stimulated Annealing Particle

Swarm Optimization Algorithm (SAPSO) that combines the advantages of PSO and SA algorithm. The

new algorithm is employed to choose the parameters of a SVM model. The model is proved to be able to

enhance the accuracy and improved the convergence ability and reduced operation time by numerical

experiment. Jingmin Wang et al., presented A short-term load forecasting model based on SVM with

Adaptive Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm (AQPSO) .

It is a fact that every system is pervasively imprecise, uncertain and hard to be modelled precisely. A

flexible approach called Soft Computing technique has emerged to deal such models effectively and most

efficiently on research scenario. It has been very widely in use over the last few decades. Soft computing

is an emerging approach which parallels the remarkable ability of the human mind to reason and learn in

an environment of uncertainty and imprecision. It is fast emerging as a tool to help computer-based

intelligent systems mimic the ability of the human mind to employ modes of reasoning that are

approximate rather than exact. The basic theme of soft computing is that precision and certainty carry a

cost and that intelligent systems should exploit, wherever possible, the tolerance for imprecision and

uncertainty. Soft computing constitutes a collection of disciplines which include fuzzy logic (FL), neural

networks (NNs), evolutionary algorithms (EAs) like genetic algorithms (GAs) etc. Natural intelligence is

the product of millions of years of biological evolution. Simulating complex biological evolutionary

processes may lead us to discover, how evolution propels living systems toward higher-level of

intelligence. One of the newer and relatively simple optimization approaches is the GA which is based on

the evolutionary principle of natural selection. Perhaps one of the most attractive qualities of GA is that it

is a derivative free optimization tool. The demand/ load forecasting techniques are also developed based

on the following soft.

The other artificial intelligence-based technique involves the use of genetic algorithms, and it deals with

the utilization of genetic programming in predicting long-term consumption of electricity. The results

obtained from this procedure are reliable as the method, if successfully undertaken, usually has a low

chance of errors. This approach also uses a genetic neural network model that can adapt and learn, which

means that it is robust. At this point, the model includes the ideas and experiences of experts in the field

in order to create a comprehensive effect whereby, all variables that affect power load are reflected. This

examination makes it apparent that the technique uses a numerical optimization approach. The main

advantage of using genetic algorithms is that they include all aspects of computing such as imprecision,

non-linearity, robustness, as well as uncertainty.

According to Ghods (254), Support Vector Machine is a method used for classifying information or data,

to obtain good generalization on a limited number of learning patterns. It is a technique based on a

concept known as structural risk minimization. For instance, recurrent neural network is part

of this technique and runs under the idea that every unit is an output of the entire network. There are two

main categories for SMVs namely Support Vector Classification (SVC) and Support Vector

Regression(SVR). SVM is a learning system that applies a high dimensional feature space and yields

prediction or forecasting functions that are expanded on a subset of support vectors. SVM can generalize

complicated gray level structures with only a very few support vectors and thus provides a new

mechanism for image compression as pointed out by Basak et al. (2007).

Exponential smoothing

Exponential smoothing is one of the approaches used for load forecasting. In this method, first load is

model based on previous data, then to use this model to predict the future load. In Moghram and

Rahman’s exponential smoothing model, the load at time t, y(t), is modelled using a fitting function and is

expressed in the form [9]:

Where, f(t)Fitting function vector of the process, β(t)-Coefficient of vector, n(t)White noise and T-

Transpose operator. The Winter’s method is one of existing exponential smoothing methods having

capacity to analyze seasonal time series directly. It is based on three smoothing constants for stationary,

trend and seasonality. Barakat [14] analyzed the result of the model and conclude that unique pattern of

energy and demand pertaining to fast growing areas was difficult to analyze and predict by direct

application of the Winter’s method. Exponential smoothing was augmented with power spectrum analysis

and adaptive autoregressive modelling in El-Keib hybrid approach. Infield and Hill optimal smoothing

based trend removal technique has been shown to compare favorably with conventional methods of load

forecasting.

Fuzzy Logic

The fuzzy logic model is a rule-based system that applies fuzzy rules, which are control decision

mechanisms. The rules usually adjust the impacts that definite stimuli have on energy demand as a factor.

The model maps on a set of input variables to a set of output variable simply using the IF-THEN logic

statement to predict and forecasting. These types of mappings allow the incorporation of expert

knowledge with Fuzzy Logic models. These models can provide algorithms that transform linguistic

strategy obtained from experts into automatic strategies. Fuzzy rules are often integrated with neural

networks so as to train artificial neural networks, as well as acquire accurate results in terms of load

demand forecasting. The advantage of this hybrid system is that it utilizes the benefits of both artificial

neural networks and fuzzy inferences thereby, formalizing and handling knowledge and experience of

expert forecasters (Alfares and Nazeeruddin, 2007).

Expert Systems

Expert systems are known to apply rules which have been generated by experts in the field. These

procedures and rules are then transformed into software, which can automatically make forecasts about

electricity demand. However, in order for the software to be efficient, expert forecasters will have to work

hand in hand with software developers to include all expert information into the software. Here, software

developers will be involved in coding all the information obtained from experts in forming software rules.

The advantage of utilizing this method is that it is fast, accurate and easy to use when forecasting

information about electricity demand (Ghods, 2011). This is because it involves the use of software

applications, which usually run at the click of a button. F. The Similar Day Approach This technique

involves searching for historical information, which has similar traits with the day forecasted. These

characteristics may include the weather, the date and even month. In this case, load of a day, which has

got similar characteristics, will be considered to be the forecast. The technique can as well apply linear

techniques whereby, the forecast can be obtained from a group of days with similar traits(Islam, 2011).

This technique is based on the concept that information obtained on electricity demand usually has an

internal structure, which might be in the form of an autocorrelation, seasonal variation or trend. These

methods explore and detect the internal structure and are utilized in such fields as digital signaling,

processing, electric load forecasting, as well as economics. For instance, Autoregressive Moving

Average(ARMA), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Autoregressive Moving

Average with Exogenous Variables (ARMA-EOV) are examples of time series techniques.

One method used in forecasting, which applies statistical techniques is known as the econometric

approach. This method applies a variety of techniques such as time series, regression, statistical learning

algorithms and fuzzy logic. This approach integrates statistical methods and economic theory when

forecasting demand for electricity. Additionally, this method attempts to obtain estimates observed

between energy consumption, which is the independent variable, and all other factors that affect

consumption, which represent the dependent variables.

Mbamalu and El-Hawary used iteratively reweighted least-squares procedure to identify the

model order and parameters. The method uses an operator that controls one variable at a time and

determines optimal starting point. Autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation

function of the resulting differenced past load data is utilized to identify a suboptimal model of

the load dynamics. A three-way decision variable is formed by the weighting function, the tuning

constants and the weighted sum of the squared residuals in identifying an optimal model and the

subsequent parameter estimates. Consider the parameter estimation problem involving the linear

measurement equation:

previous load data), β is a p x 1 vector of the unknown parameters and e is an n x 1 vector of random

errors. Results are more accurate when the errors are not Gaussian. Iterative methods are used to find β.

Newton method /alternatively Beaton-Turkey iterative reweighted least-square’s algorithm (IRLS) can be

applied if β is known. Mbamalu, El- Hawary [8] enhanced this work by introducing an interactive

approach employing least-squares and the IRLS procedure for estimating the parameters of a seasonal

multiplicative autoregressive model.

Conclusions

Load forecasting or prediction is a useful mechanism as it enables electric power companies to save in

terms of cost and efficiency. Most companies utilize load forecasting techniques based on historical data

on consumers by analyzing their electricity utilization of application. Some techniques are complex

because the factors utilized as the load frequently have complex variables. This implies that the more

complex the method applied, the more accurate the results obtained. This automatically shows that

artificial-based techniques will produce the most accurate results as they incorporate all aspects of factors

such as the social, environment and the economy. These techniques are observed to employ complex

techniques, which identify both linear and non-linear relationships that can be seen between electricity

consumption, as well as factors affecting consumption. Furthermore, these techniques are mostly used by

experts as they usually rely on their experience and opinions in order to be accurate. In the long run,

experts in this field will have to analyze these variables at length in order to have a clear understanding as

to how they behave, in an effort to create advanced methods of forecasting load or electricity demand.

REFERENCES

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[2]D. G. Infield and D. C. Hill, “Optimal smoothing for trend removal in short term electricity demand

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[3] G. M. Jenkins, “Practical experiences with modeling and forecast,” Time Series., 1979.

[4] T. Haida and S. Muto, “Regression based peak load forecasting using a transformation technique,”

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