Double Degree MSc Programme

GEO-INFORMATION FOR SPATIAL PLANNING AND

DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
UGM
Graduate School Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta Phone/Fax. (0274) 564239
Website http://www.geo.ugm.ac.id, www.geoinfopasca.ugm.ac.id and
http://www.itc.nl/pub/study/programmes/joint-educations

SUPERVISED PRACTICUM

Module M
Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

LECTURER:

Fathiyya Ulfa, M.Sc

By:
Haikal Muhammad Ihsan (17/420008/PMU/09219)
Moh. Taufiq Ismu Abadi (17/420015/PMU/09226)

APRIL 2018
The different result of hazard losses is shown due to applied alternatives. The result shows the effectiveness
between alternative 1 (Engineering Mitigation) and alternative 2 (Ecological Mitigation). Its shows the alternative
1 more effective to reduce the risk. Even though, those result is effective to reduce the risk in 50 years period.
Table 1. Saving Fund
An0-An1 154345.64 Engineering Mitigation
An0-An2 144349.96 Ecological Mitigation
Based on the table 1, the engineering mitigation effective to apply for reducing the risk. It is saving more the fund
rather than ecological mitigation. It saves around 154345.64 dollars. Those alternative is better to reduce the risk
rather than ecological mitigation. So, it can applied in other scenario, for assessing the effectiveness scenario with
those alternative.
The scenarios are created based on possibilities the land use change in future. The scenarios are divided into 2
types. The first scenario is business as usual, which is the change in land parcel is based on the unplanned growth
in the area. The second scenario is risk informed planning, which is the change in land parcel is based on the
planned growth in the area.

Losses Scenario 1
9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
A0 A1 A2 A0 A1 A2 A0 A1 A2
2014 2020 2030

FL20 FL50 LS20 LS50

Losses Scenario 2
9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
A0 A1 A2 A0 A1 A2 A0 A1 A2
2014 2020 2030

FL20 FL50 LS20 LS50

The first scenario shows the higher losses rather than second scenario. Its due to the condition where the risk
planning is not considered. The first scenario allows the area to change. Its makes the losses is high. While, the
second scenario has lower losses because its considering the risk prevention planning.
Finding the best result to reduce risk is important. The way to do it is by combaining the alternative with the
scenario. Both of them can contribute to reducing risk in different way. In this report, we only discussed the
alternative 1 due to its more effective than alternative 2.

Losses Alternative 1,Scenario1 Losses Alternative 1, Scenario

2500000 2
2000000 2500000
1500000 2000000
1500000
1000000
1000000
500000 500000
0 0
2014 2020 2030 2014 2020 2030

FL20 FL50 LS20 LS50 FL20 FL50 LS20 LS50

The losses trend is lower in scenario 2. Losses trend of landslide in 20 years and 50 years return period is nearly
same. The curve trend on scenario 2 is indicated that the scenario can prevent the susceptible area of hazard. Even
though, the trends are similar both of two scenarios. The flash flood trend is increasing for both of two scenarios.

Annual Risk in 2020

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
A0 A1 A2

No Scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2

 Annual Risk in 2030
600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0
A0 A1 A2

No Scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2

The annual risk trend shows the best scenario and alternative to reduce the risk. Annual risk trend is analyzed both
in 2020 and 2030. Both of annual risk trends show the decreasing trend in 2020 and 2030. Those annual risk
decreasing trend is indicate both scenario and alternative that applied is good enough for reducing the risk both in
2020 and 2030. Although, the effectiveness of scenarios and alternatives are only good to applied for 6 years,
which is from 2014 till 2020.
The annual risk trend of scenario 2 in 2020 is nearly same with the trend in 2014 which is as starting year. Those
same trend condition of annual risk might indicated that engineering mitigation and risk planning is successful for
preventing the susceptible hazard area. The same trend condition of annual risk is powerful to reduce the risk for 6
years. Its might can saving the fund for 6 years.
 2020 SCENARIO 1
Area FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_202 FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_202 FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_202
2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 0_A0_S 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 0_A1_S 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 0_A2_S
0_S1_P 0_S1_P 0_S1_P 0_S1_P 1 1_S1_P 1_S1_P 1_S1_P 1_S1_P 1 2_S1_P 2_S1_P 2_S1_P 2_S1_P 1
H H H H H H H H H H H H
outside 0 0 3764 7528 319.94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S01 406392 594313 214976 595198 37118.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 116319 0 0 4071.17
6
S02 256979 417804 155673 342987 21293.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 114434 0 0 4005.19
7
S03 51961 125966 143384 339976 15186.1 0 0 0 24828 868.98 0 19425 0 9542 1013.85
5
S04 365184 627192 39401 138258 28266.4 0 0 1055 2111 89.71 0 63393 1055 2111 2308.47
1
S05 149574 239060 158199 289623 17214.3 0 0 1743 1743 87.15 0 85487 1360 1360 3060.05
8
S06 17260 50216 291669 617526 25997.6 0 0 33809 122213 4784.59 0 0 46465 148255 5885.9
2
S07 307274 295031 70227 152696 20646.3 307274 295031 0 722 14960.4 309568 295726 0 722 15019.2
7 7
S08 661124 1133030 12 58 49575.1 661124 1133030 0 0 49572.9 661124 1133030 0 0 49572.9
2 1 1
S09 128128 228304 0 0 9912.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S10 136799 113470 0 0 6023.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S11 112886 201355 0 0 8740.72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S12 196022 393104 2909 8727 16698.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 3151 0 0 110.29
7
S13 6708 10334 141 54900 2046.83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S14 0 0 484 2419 91.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S15 101 301 15102 31119 1315.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0.39
S16 593 437 64210 136915 5779.37 0 0 493 4787 174.94 0 1134 493 4767 213.93
S17 0 0 26490 56351 2369.64 0 0 6306 13600 570.59 0 147 6306 13600 575.74
S18 0 0 173408 336557 14380.6 0 0 4419 5289 251.4 0 0 4389 5259 249.9
2
S19 0 0 49070 101694 4295.34 0 0 269 4093 147.29 0 0 269 4093 147.29
Min 0 0 0 0 91.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Max 661124 1133030 291669 617526 49575.1 661124 1133030 33809 122213 49572.9 661124 1133030 46465 148255 49572.9
2 1 1
Avg 139849 221496 70456 160627 14363.6 48420 71403 2405 8969 3575.4 48535 91613 3017 9485 4311.71
4
StD 180148 294373 87618 195848 13279.9 159706 258420 7578 27342 11354.8 159902 255641 10360 32871 11226.5
5 6 8
Sum 2796985 4429917 1409119 3212532 287273 968398 1428061 48094 179386 71508 970692 1832257 60337 189709 86234.3
 2030 SCENARIO 1
Area FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_2030 FL_20_ FL_50 LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_203 FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_203
2030_A 2030_A 2030_A 2030_A _A0_S1 2030_ _2030_ 2030_A 2030_A 0_A1_S 2030_A 2030_A 2030_A 2030_A 0_A2_S
0_S1_P 0_S1_P 0_S1_P 0_S1_P A1_S1 A1_S1 1_S1_P 1_S1_P 1 2_S1_P 2_S1_P 2_S1_P 2_S1_P 1
H H H H _PH _PH H H H H H H
outside 0 0 3764 7528 319.94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S01 857154 1455085 488341 1372907 78778.85 0 0 0 0 0 0 342190 0 0 11976.6
5
S02 348131 503285 196248 446540 27370.17 0 0 0 0 0 0 127468 0 0 4461.38
S03 85570 200966 220402 574191 24857.82 0 0 0 30136 1054.76 0 27335 0 9542 1290.7
S04 780282 1417485 138024 506744 63035.48 0 0 1055 2111 89.71 0 109554 1055 2111 3924.1
S05 289013 521799 294366 544300 34913.44 0 0 1750 1750 87.5 0 126809 1367 1367 4506.67
S06 32240 75089 503994 1081933 45448.08 0 0 37917 192410 7303.11 0 0 46723 177367 6908.69
S07 490641 600418 75392 164757 34541.54 490641 600418 0 872 28404.7 492841 601062 0 872 28460.3
7 1
S08 1023581 1640479 13 64 72772.92 102358 164047 0 0 72770.4 1023581 1640479 0 0 72770.4
1 9 8 8
S09 155082 270076 0 0 11778.89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S10 136799 113470 0 0 6023.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S11 180950 295963 0 0 13072.96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S12 285933 584879 3764 11292 24759.76 0 0 0 0 0 0 8719 0 0 305.16
S13 106225 155483 209 278523 12335.72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S14 0 0 484 2419 91.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S15 101 301 15102 31119 1315.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0.39
S16 593 437 64210 136915 5779.37 0 0 493 4787 174.94 0 1134 493 4767 213.93
S17 0 0 26490 56351 2369.64 0 0 6306 13600 570.59 0 147 6306 13600 575.74
S18 0 0 173020 335735 14346.03 0 0 4466 5336 253.75 0 0 4436 5306 252.25
S19 0 0 41267 82589 3509.62 0 0 0 56 1.96 0 0 0 56 1.96
Min 0 0 0 0 91.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Max 1023581 1640479 503994 1372907 78778.85 102358 164047 37917 192410 72770.4 1023581 1640479 46723 177367 72770.4
1 9 8 8
Avg 238615 391761 112255 281695 23871.07 75711 112045 2599 12553 5535.58 75821 149245 3019 10749 6782.42
StD 314132 524151 158224 383741 24380.41 248554 383927 8481 42934 17082.4 248748 381770 10421 39391 16912.3
7
Sum 4772295 7835215 2245090 5633907 477421 151422 224089 51987 251058 110712 1516422 2984908 60380 214988 135648
2 7
 2020 SCENARIO 2
Area FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_202 FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_202 FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_202
2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 0_A0_S 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 0_A1_S 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 2020_A 0_A2_S
0_S2_P 0_S2_P 0_S2_P 0_S2_P 2 1_S2_P 1_S2_P 1_S2_P 1_S2_P 2 2_S2_P 2_S2_P 2_S2_P 2_S2_P 2
H H H H H H H H H H H H
outside 0 0 171 342 14.54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S01 134403 218013 134814 352502 17566.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 34837 0 0 1219.3
2
S02 230266 381142 156229 338321 19012.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 66456 0 0 2325.96
S03 59731 129979 70899 174982 8397.35 0 0 0 449 15.72 0 8479 0 587 317.31
S04 190967 281015 25717 95783 13453.8 0 0 48 96 4.08 0 34312 48 96 1205
1
S05 103755 182466 156493 284842 14826.3 0 0 409 409 20.45 0 69288 96 96 2429.88
9
S06 17901 51463 221004 469891 19770.3 0 0 12237 75267 2817.9 0 0 4106 69938 2509.42
1
S07 245586 243047 54620 120202 16738.9 245586 243047 0 867 12220.7 245248 242833 0 112 12181.8
4 8
S08 483480 822787 7 35 36051.0 483480 822787 0 0 36049.7 483480 822787 0 0 36049.7
7 5 5
S09 132050 325836 0 0 13385.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1
S10 3634 4212 0 0 201.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S11 131690 234307 0 0 10176.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S12 101419 190742 239 718 8197.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 3972 0 0 139.02
S13 41653 42832 141 55892 3518.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S14 0 0 30 149 5.67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S15 4 13 2372 4785 203.06 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.04
S16 28 20 2918 6225 262.76 0 0 22 215 7.86 0 52 22 216 9.71
S17 0 0 1205 2564 107.82 0 0 287 619 25.97 0 7 287 619 26.22
S18 0 0 8254 16730 709.36 0 0 198 237 11.27 0 0 695 734 36.12
S19 0 0 598 1406 58.18 0 0 12 236 8.44 0 0 12 236 8.44

Min 0 0 0 0 5.67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Max 483480 822787 221004 469891 36051.0 483480 822787 12237 75267 36049.7 483480 822787 4106 69938 36049.7
7 5 5
Avg 93828 155394 41786 96268 9132.83 36453 53292 661 3920 2559.11 36436 64151 263 3632 2922.9
StD 122906 202226 68729 147437 9751.95 118652 189077 2727 16795 8353.67 118621 187130 919 15609 8264.66
Sum 1876567 3107874 835711 1925369 182657 729066 1065834 13213 78395 51182.2 728728 1283024 5266 72634 58458
 2030 SCENARIO 2
Area FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_203 FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_203 FL_20_ FL_50_ LS_20_ LS_50_ AR_203
2030_A 2030_A 2030_A 2030_A 0_A0_S 2030_A 2030_A 2030_A 2030_A 0_A1_S 2030_A 2030_A 2030_A 2030_A 0_A2_S
0_S2_P 0_S2_P 0_S2_P 0_S2_P 2 1_S2_P 1_S2_P 1_S2_P 1_S2_P 2 2_S2_P 2_S2_P 2_S2_P 2_S2_P 2
H H H H H H H H H H H H
outside 0 0 171 342 14.54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S01 183704 319063 224803 594099 27864.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 61784 0 0 2162.44
6
S02 349569 625755 273054 588970 31248.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 82373 0 0 2883.06
2
S03 108193 227561 128665 307394 14462.1 0 0 0 496 17.36 0 16426 0 587 595.46
8
S04 297252 411442 35888 133757 20304.1 0 0 48 96 4.08 0 21900 48 96 770.58
7
S05 142586 258365 247225 450790 22142.3 0 0 415 415 20.75 0 89634 436 436 3145.69
9
S06 21218 58231 310550 632897 26819.6 0 0 26552 100713 3923.24 0 0 10134 135400 4891.01
2
S07 388512 386225 74504 165469 25418.0 388512 386225 0 1670 19404.0 117507 144603 0 449 6839.43
7 1
S08 1020313 1868886 8 38 80717.1 1020313 1868886 0 0 80715.7 1020313 1868886 0 0 80715.7
6 1 1
S09 598967 1152211 0 0 49311.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9
S10 3634 4212 0 0 201.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S11 605338 931832 0 0 41694.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9
S12 663507 1243588 459 1377 53478.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 7810 0 0 273.35
9
S13 215957 368019 209 723649 32409.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9
S14 0 0 30 149 5.67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S15 4 13 2372 4785 203.06 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.04
S16 28 20 2918 6225 262.76 0 0 22 215 7.86 0 52 22 277 11.85
S17 0 0 1205 2564 107.82 0 0 287 619 25.97 0 7 287 619 26.22
S18 0 0 7866 15908 674.77 0 0 245 284 13.62 0 0 1272 1843 83.59
S19 0 0 272 598 25.01 0 0 0 56 1.96 0 0 415 2332 87.85
Min 0 0 0 0 5.67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Max 1020313 1868886 310550 723649 80717.1 1020313 1868886 26552 100713 80715.7 1020313 1868886 10134 135400 80715.7
6 1 1
Avg 229939 392771 65510 181451 21368.3 70441 112756 1378 5228 5206.73 56891 114674 631 7102 5124.31
3
StD 292307 524102 107678 262466 22588 239818 422251 5926 22478 18302.6 228279 414861 2257 30205 17895.1
2 3
Sum 4598782 7855423 1310199 3629011 427367 1408825 2255111 27569 104564 104135 1137820 2293476 12614 142039 102486