DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS

Well rates are bound to decline with production. When sufficient

production data is available and production is declining , the past
production curves of individual wells or of the field as a whole can be
extended to an economic rate. Since the graphical presentation of oil and
gas production rates would eventually decline with time, the curves are
known as ‘Decline curve’.

The objectives are i) the prediction of future performance and

ii) estimation of reserves left
 Production profiles

GAS CAP DRIVE

DEPLETION DRIVE RESERVOIRS

 Production profiles

COMBINATION DRIVE

WATER DRIVE
Production profiles
OIL AND GAS RESERVOIRS
TYPICAL PRODUCTION-RATE DECLINE CURVES
 FUNDAMENTALS OF DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

Decline methods were derived from the differential equation for the normalized
decline rate and explained as
dq/dt q = production rate, bbl per day, month or year
D = - --------- = Kqn t = time, day, month, year
q K = constant
n = exponent
The rate of decline can be constant or
variable with time, yielding three basic types
of production decline characteristics
Type of decline n D

Exponential 0 Constant
Hyperbolic >0 Variable
<1
Harmonic 1 Variable
The type of decline is determined by the value of n, given in the table
below
Type of decline n D
Exponential 0 Constant
Hyperbolic >0 Variable
<1
Harmonic 1 Variable

Exponential: where decline in production

rate is a constant percentage
Harmonic: when decline is directly
proportional to the rate
Hyperbolic: when the decline rate (D) varies
and the exponent (n) is more than 0 but less
than 1. The hyperbolic curve models Both the exponential and
production performance in between the harmonic decline curves can be
harmonic and exponential decline regarded as special cases of the
hyperbolic decline curve
 DECLINE CURVE
The commonly used decline curves for oil reservoirs include
1. Production rate versus cumulative production.
2 . Log of production rate versus time
3. Log of water cut versus cumulative production

Special curves for analysis:

1.Oil/water or gas/oil contact versus cum. production
2. Log cum. gas production versus cum. oil production
 EXPONENTIAL OR CONSTANT DECLINE
Decline methods were derived from the differential equation for the normalized
decline rate and explained as
dq/dt q = production rate, bbl per day, month or year
D = - --------- = Kqn t = time, day, month, year
q K = constant
n = exponent
In case of exponential decline of well rate, n is 0 and D is a constant, the above
equation can be written as follows:
dq/dt ln (qt/qi) n=0
D = - --------- = K = - ------------ K = constant
q t qi = initial production rate
qt = production rate at time t

This is the most widely used of the three methods, primarily because it is easy to
determine the parameters and gives a more conservative estimates of future
reserves for a given parameters.
In case of exponential decline of well rate, n is 0 and D is a constant, the above
equation can be written as follows:
dq/dt n=0
D = - --------- = K K = constant
q qi = initial production rate
qt = production rate at time t
The rate versus time and the rate cumulative relationships are given
by the following qi - qt
qt = qie-Dt Qt = ---------- , Qt = cum. Prod at time t
D
From the above qt = qie-Dt

Taking the natural log of both sides of the exponential rate/time relationship gives
lnqt = lnqi - Dit
Therefore, a plot of lnqt vs. t gives a straight line with m = -Di and c = lnqi . If it is
more convenient to plot logqt vs. t, then m = - Diloge and c = logqi.
 ∆q
/
If ∆q is the rate change in the first year of production , then D = ----------
qi

In this case, the relationship between D and D/is given as

D = - ln (1 - ∆q/qi) = - ln (1 – D/)

For wells under exponential decline, the value of

D is a constant and can be determined graphically
by plotting the well rate versus cumulative
production, or log of rate versus time.
 HYPERBOLIC DECLINE
Decline methods were derived from the differential equation for the normalized
decline rate and explained as
dq/dt q = production rate, bbl per day, month or year
D = - --------- = Kqn t = time, day, month, year
q K = constant
n = exponent
In case of well producing under hyperbolic decline, the decline is proportional to
the power n of the production rate, where n is a positive fraction (0< n< 1). This is
less common, but no less simple, decline method.
Di
For the initial condition K = -----
q in
The rate versus time and the rate cumulative relationships are given by

qt = qi (1 + nDiT) -1/n qin (qi1-n – qt1-n)

Qt = -------------------- where Di = initial decline rate
(1 – n)Di
 HARMONIC DECLINE
Decline methods were derived from the differential equation for the normalized
decline rate and explained as
dq/dt q = production rate, bbl per day, month or year
D = - --------- = Kqn t = time, day, month, year
q K = constant
n = exponent
In case of well with harmonic decline, the decline is proportional to
production rate and n = 1, so dq/dt
D = - ----------- = Kq
q For initial condition K = Di/qi
The rate versus time and the rate cumulative relationships are given by

qt = qi /(1 + Dit) qi qi
Qt = ----- ln-----
Di qt
Well production drops rather slowly with time under harmonic decline, in comparison to
exponential or hyperbolic decline. This type of decline indicates relatively large reservoir
 TYPICAL HYPERBOLIC AND EXPONENTIAL PLOTS
1. A plot of logqt vs. t is linear if the decline is exponential and concave
upward if the decline is hyperbolic (n> 0) or harmonic (n= 1)

n=1

2. A plot logqt vs. Qt

is linear if the
declineis exponential
and concave upward
if the decline is
hyperbolic (n > 0) or
harmonic (n = 1).
3. A plot of log qt vs. Qt is linear if the decline is harmonic, concave downward if
the decline is hyperbolic (n < 1) or exponential (n = 0) and concave upward if the
decline is hyperbolic with n > 1

n=1

4. A plot of 1/qt vs. t is linear if the decline is harmonic, concave upward if the
decline is hyperbolic (n< 1) or exponential, and concave downward if the decline
is hyperbolic with n > 1
 TYPICAL HYPERBOLIC AND EXPONENTIAL PLOTS

n=1

Cum. Oil production

Plots 1 (logqt vs. t ) and 3 (log qt vs. Qt) are the more common methods of presenting
production data, and plots 2 (logqt vs. Qt) and 4 (1/qt vs. t )can be used to confirm
trends observed there. Once again, these plots often can be made to appear linear if too
few points are used; therefore, at the least, plots 1 and 3 should be used to avoid
confusion
 ASSUMPTIONS OF DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS
Important assumptions are involved in decline analysis
• Sufficient production performance data is available and a declining
trend in well rate has been established
• Ongoing field operations will continue in the future without
interruptions
All of the factors that influenced the curve in the past remain essentially
unchanged throughout the producing life
• Each well or a group of wells drains a constant finite reservoir area,
producing essentially at full capacity
•Flow across the reservoir boundary does not occur, including
influences of an adjoining aquifer
•Depletion is the only driving mechanism. Gas cap or water drive can
affect the decline curve trend
 FACTORS INFLUENCE PRODUCTION RATES AND
THUS THE DECLINE CURVE PERFORMANCE:
• Proration, or restricted production
• Changes in pwf affecting gas/oil ratio and water/oil ratio
• Water influx from an adjacent aquifer
• Well treatments, such as stimulation and hydraulic fracturing
• Changes in production methods, such as gas lifting
• Initiation of pressure maintenance, water flooding or an enhanced
recovery operation
• Workovers, such as perforating and producing from another layer
• Pipeline disruptions causing shutdowns of the wells

Therefore, care must be taken in extrapolating the

production curve into the future
 DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

The general procedure for analysis is as follows:

• Gather available production performance data
• Observe plots of the log of the oil rate versus time and
the log of water cut versus cumulative production
• Determine reasons for production data anomalies
• Evaluate various means of plotting the data
• Select the portion of the performance data applicable for
analysis
• Perform regression analysis for history matching of the
past data
• Forecast future performance with economic oil
production rate and water cut
 USEFUL DECLINE FORMULAS

Once the decline parameters have been determined from the production history,
qi qi
qt = qie-Dt Qt = ----- ln -----
Di qt
The above formula can be used to forecast future production rates and total cumulative
production from a well or field.
The following formulas can be used for future forecast
Formulas to calculate the time to reach a certain production rate
once the decline parameters are determines
Following are the formulas for different cases
It is also important to be able to calculate the decline rate at any time –
- to calculate decline rate everyday, every month or every year

Decline rate at any time is given by

And applies to any value of n

The decline rate remains constant when n = 0, while the

decline rate decreases with time for n> 0