Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
REAL ESTATE
MARKET
OUTLOOK
Vietnam
TABL E OF CONTENT
03 04
INFOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
SUMMARY
07 11
OFFICE RETAIL
17 21
LOGISTICS CONDOMINIUM
25
CAPITAL MARKETS
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK
VIETNAM
The impressive 6.8% GDP growth observed in 2017 The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TPP
helped Vietnam to achieve a position as one of the fastest (CPTPP) is expected to be signed on March 8 and Vietnam
growing economies in Asia. The Industry & Construction is poised to receive many benefits from this trade pact
sector continued to be a crucial driving force in despite the fact that it no longer includes the United
Vietnam’s growth while the Services sector recorded the States. Meanwhile, the FTA between Vietnam and the EU
largest increase. (EVFTA) is also expected to be passed in 2018.
In 2017, FDI to Vietnam reached a record high of US$36 In addition to an inevitable increase in FDI, these FTAs
billion, a 47% increase y-o-y. Much of the increase was will also give Vietnam access to a bigger market for
attributable to US$21 billion of newly licensed capital. exports of its footwear, textiles, and electronic products.
With regard to trade balance, a steady improvement has Specifically, through this agreement, Vietnam will gain
been seen over the last three years. In 2017 Vietnam access to significant markets including Canada, Mexico
recorded a US$2.7 billion surplus compared to a US$3.5 and European countries with whom it currently does not
billion deficit in 2015. have any trade relations.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK
VIETNAM
8% 7%
Forecast
7%
6%
6%
5%
Proportion of GDP
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0%
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
Myanmar
Singapore
Phillippines
Malaysia
Thailand
Source: Oxford Economics, General Statistics Office of Vietnam Source: Asian Development bank
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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OFFICE SECTOR
O F F ICE SECTOR
VIETNAM
The Office sector in HCMC and Hanoi ended 2017 on a positive note. Rents
improved in both cities even on the back of new supply added to the market.
The improvement in performance was observed across Grade A and Grade B
buildings, driven by economic improvement, strong FDI flows and ongoing
infrastructure developments, which is expected to persist during 2018.
H C M C O F F I C E E N J O Y S F U R T H E R G R O WT H cities which will support further rental growth and
WH I L E H AN O I ’ S S H O WI N G C L E AR S I G N S O F occupancy improvement. Meanwhile, stronger pipeline of
RECOVERY Grade B’s will likely lead to flat performance in this
In 2017, while newly added supply helped ease the segment across the cities.
shortage of office space in HCMC, slower supply growth
in Hanoi allowed for rental growth for the first time over D E M AN D T O R E M AI N S T R O N G S U P P O R T E D
the last ten years. B Y F D I F L O WS AN D C O N T I N U E D E C O N O M I C
G R O WT H
The recovery of Hanoi’s rental rates in 2017 has reduced Leasing demand is expected to remain strong in
rental gaps between the two cities, but HCMC’s rents upcoming years from both local and international
remained significantly higher, by up to 50% compared to tenants on the back of positive economic growth and
Hanoi’s, for both grades on average. Occupancy rates of strong FDI flows. By industry, manufacturing and
both Grade A’s and B’s exceeded average rates during technologies and IT will be key sectors to lead the
2012 – 2016 in both markets. demand, but Internet, Service, and Logistics will remain
the sectors to watch.
In 2018, no new Grade A completion is expected in either
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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O F F ICE SECTOR
Year 2017 provides a good benchmark for the upcoming 25,000 sm NLA being filled, on average, in less than a
office market in terms of expected supply and market year.
performance in 2018F – 2020F because of stable predicted
growth in the economy and the city’s ever improving S L O WE R S U P P L Y G R O WT H P R O M I S E S A
infrastructure in the form of metro lines. STRONGER OUTLOOK
New supply in 2018 will be limited to two Grade B office
S T R O N G D E M AN D T O C O N T I N U E D R I V I N G buildings, including Viettel Phase 2 and the Thaco
R E N T AL G R O WT H building. With no new supply added in Grade A segment,
The lack of available land in the CBD likely means a focus rental growth for Grade A buildings are projected to be at
on developments in previously ignored fringe CBD areas 2%.
to keep up with demand for office space over the next
three years. One notable example is the plan to progress Further supply will be added in 2019 including one new
Phase 2 of the Viettel Complex in District 10 following the Grade A building and no more than four new Grade B
success of Phase 1. Also, the first Grade B office building buildings. Rental rates for both grades are expected to
in the Thu Thiem New Urban Area - Thaco Building, increase in 2019, though the increase is anticipated to be
despite offering only 7,000sm NLA, is likely to set a trend lower in Grade A due to new supply coming online during
for new office developments in this area. the year.
Projected rental growth rate of 2% per annum in 2018F – New supply in 2020 will be dominated by Grade A
2020F is a result of continuing appetite for quality supply including the long-awaited projects of Tax Centre and the
despite the already high baseline (US$38 psm pm for Spirit of Saigon both located in the heart of the CBD.
Grade A and US$21psm pm for Grade B). The trend of These centrally located developments, combined with the
relocation to better quality space would also further scheduled completion of the new metro line, are likely to
support rental growth prospects. boost Grade A rental growth to 2%. It is expected that
average rents in this grade will reach US$40 psm pm from
Healthy economic growth is also expected to encourage the current level of US$38 psm pm.
tenants from sectors such as IT, Logistics, etc. to be
bolder with their relocation and expansion plans to better Looking beyond 2020, CBRE forecasts that the HCMC
and newer buildings. Also, rapid absorption amidst office market will gradually shift to higher quality where
limited new supply will keep vacancy rates to remain low higher-profile buildings and tenants dominate office
for both grades, as witnessed from new buildings up to space.
Figure 3: Annual New Supply and Vacancy Rate Figure 4: Annual Rental Outlook
New Supply - Grade A New Supply - Grade B
Grade A Grade B
Vacancy - Grade A Vacancy - Grade B
Forecast 50 Forecast
100,000 20%
Net Leasable Area, sm
80,000 16% 40
US$/sm/month
Vacancy, %
60,000 12% 30
40,000 8% 20
20,000 4% 10
0 0% 0
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Mar 2018.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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O F F ICE SECTOR
HANOI
Year 2017 ended with many positive signals in the Hanoi Grade B, a higher level of new completions, especially in
office market. With moderate supply growth and healthy the West, remains a major challenge for this asset class.
demand from both traditional and emerging sectors In upcoming years, it is expected that the pricing range of
predicted, we expect that market performance will further Grade B will be larger. New buildings which have good
improve in 2018. locations, large floor plates and good management will
command higher rents than the market average while
S L O WE R S U P P L Y G R O WT H E N AB L E S R E N T AL others will have to rely on a competitive pricing strategy to
G R O WT H AN D H I G H E R O C C U P AN C Y sustain occupancy. Therefore, we anticipate that there
The level of supply growth has been reduced from 10% will be no significant changes in Grade B rental rates in
per annum on average during 2012–2016 to 5% in 2017 Hanoi in 2018.
enabling the market to absorb existing vacant space. As a
result, in 2017 the market witnessed an increase in asking Vietnam remains an attractive investment destination
rents in both Grade A and B for the first time in the last providing positive economic growth and lower labour
ten years. It was also notable that average occupancy rates costs in comparison with regional peers which boost the
of Grade A buildings remained at 91% at the end 2017 leasing demand from foreign tenants. Meanwhile,
where the lowest level of vacant space was observed since domestic demand remains strong especially for Grade B
2011. office space as the economy continues to expand.
Looking ahead, total supply is expected to increase by In 2017, occupiers from the traditional sectors of
between 4% - 8% per annum in 2018–2019 before manufacturing, financial and tech industries retained
accelerating from 2020 onwards. their position representing nearly 50% of total CBRE’s
enquiries. We observe that both local and international
Limited new supply will foster further improvement in banks and tech companies have been actively seeking
Grade A performance, especially in 2018 when no new new locations to expand their networks in recent years.
project is scheduled to be completed. CBRE expects that These industries will continue to drive market demand in
Grade A’s rental growth can reach 3.5% y-o-y while Hanoi. Sustainable demand from traditional sectors
occupancy rates will increase to 96% by the end of the combined with the rise of new sectors of Logistics,
year. Given limited Grade A supply over the past three Education, and Co-Working are expected to be key drivers
years, especially in the CBD, existing tenants in Grade A which will boost net absorption.
buildings in the CBD tend to renew current contracts. For
Figure 5: New Supply and Vacancy Rate Figure 6: Annual Rental Outlook
New Supply - Grade A New Supply - Grade B
Grade A Grade B
Vacancy - Grade A Vacancy - Grade B
Forecast Forecast
30
120,000 20%
Asking rents US$/sm/month
25
100,000
15%
Net Leasable Area, sm
80,000 20
Vacancy, %
60,000 10% 15
40,000 10
5%
20,000 5
- 0% -
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Mar 2018. Asking rents are net of tax and service charge
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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RETAIL SECTOR
RETAIL SECTOR
VIETNAM
2017 was a prominent year of Vietnam’s Retail sector. The vibrant trend
spread in every corner, from M&A activities, foreign investment, to remarkable
new entrances by international retailers, consumer confidence, future
developments, etc., promising even more exciting years ahead.
In a recent report on the Global Retail Development Index witnessed the entry of various international brands
issued by A.T. Kearney (Table 1) , the Vietnam retail including fashion, F&B, entertainment, specialty stores,
market has jumped to 6th place, higher than some etc. and some of these have achieved remarkable success
developed markets in the region such as Singapore, Hong and popularity.
Kong, and Indonesia and showing high potential for
further growth. Despite having a relatively high perceived Well known developers and investment funds are also
risk and only modest attractiveness, the Vietnam market penetrating the Vietnam market with a number of notable
achieved high scores in terms of market saturation with transactions such as two acquisitions by Lotte and Aeon
good scope for growth. Saturation in both Hanoi and for future malls in Hanoi, US$2.5 million of Blue HK
HCMC is far behind the levels seen in some other SEA investment into Beta Media and US$500 million of
cities such as Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok. additional funds by Central Group for its Vietnam
expansion. The IPO of Vincom Retail JSC. in 2017, an arm
These positive prospects place pressure on international of local largest developer, Vingroup JSC, was the country’s
retailers in terms of timing their entry to the Vietnam biggest-ever first-time share sale, according to data
market in order to take advantage of these growth compiled by Bloomberg, pushing the HCMC Stock Index
opportunities. In the last few years Vietnam has to its highest level since 2008.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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RETAIL SECTOR
VIETNAM
With a population of more than 90 million among which in Asia by 2021 with CARG of 37.4%, much higher than
40% are under 25 years old and more than 45% are from other regional peers such as China, South Korea, and
25 – 54 years old, the potential in the Vietnam retail Japan which have CARG of less than 10%. With a lower
market has long been recognized. The country’s average starting point, these numbers indicate a large potential
income per capita has been growing at a rate of around market in Vietnam with a growing middle class and a
30% every two years (GSO, 2016), which is expected to young population who value convenience, modernity and
mean that the middle and affluent classes will account for comfort. The driving force behind such growth is the
33 million people by 2020 (BCG, 2013). expansion of current players such as Circle K, which is
rapidly spreading Hanoi while remaining strong in
Moreover, these potential consumers are also becoming HCMC, the sturdier presence of local players such as
more and more confident in their spending. In 2017, nearly 900 Vinmart+ all over the country and the recently
Vietnam achieved a 5-year record high in terms of the introduced Bach Hoa Xanh by Mobile World. Other
Consumer Confidence Index, ranking 5th worldwide international players have either already taken their first
according to Nielsen. This index shows the potential of steps in to the Vietnam market or are currently
the retail market as well as the optimism and willingness considering doing so. The worldwide chain 7-Eleven
to spend of Vietnamese consumers. In a regional opened its first store in HCMC in the middle of 2017 and
perspective, South East Asian indexes are generally high, the South Korean chain, GS25, is set to launch in early
among which the Philippines is leading globally at 2018 signaling further growth for this segment.
number one, while Indonesia is in 4th place. This
optimism is also being translated into consumer In addition, the overall shopping experience is
spending behavior. Vietnamese consumers have switched outweighing other factors in shopping decisions.
from being among the most devoted savers globally to Customers usually do research on products online, on
being some of the most eager spenders. Nielsen also social media or key opinion leaders (KOLs) before going
revealed that only 63% of Vietnamese chose to use spare to stores. Retailers and landlords must combine different
cash for savings, a decrease of 13% compared to the channels to attract consumers, both online and offline.
previous year. The decrease in savings mean that more Moreover, store based strategies are also becoming more
consumers are choosing to spend on items including refined, with flagship/ signature stores providing
vacations, new clothes, new technology products, home experiences and raising awareness supported by a
improvements and out of home entertainments. network of satellite stores and pop ups, bringing
convenience to consumers.
These entertainments include dining out, going to the
cinema, concerts and the theatre. These are also the Consumers also now care more about health and wellness
preferences of millennials in APAC and Vietnam, the with growing interest in gyms, personal care, green
shapers of future demand. These preferences are eating, etc. Vietnamese consumers are the most socially-
manifested in a strong focus on the F&B and conscious in Asia-Pacific according to the Corporate
entertainment categories. Along with the retailtainment Sustainability Report from Nielsen released on April
trend and place-making, these two approaches are no 26. This report indicates that up to 86% of consumers in
longer just added services for traditional retailing but Vietnam are willing to pay higher prices for products and
have become crucial components in constructing an all- services from companies that are committed to having a
in-one destination offering experiences to customers. positive social and environmental impact, compared to
76% of consumers in Asia-Pacific generally. The survey
C O N S U M E R S V AL U E C O N V E N I E N C E , indicates that the top sustainability factors influencing
E X P E R I E N C E AN D H E AL T H AN D WE L L N E S S the purchasing intentions of Vietnamese consumers are
BENEFITS high-quality products (79%), products known for their
health and wellness benefits (77%) and products made
According to a report by IGD Research issued in mid 2017, with fresh, natural and/or organic ingredients (77%).
Vietnam is predicted to lead the convenience store market
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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RETAIL SECTOR
VIETNAM
6000
4000
2000
0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Vietnamese Statistical Office, 2016.
Insurance package
Entertainment
Home renovation
New tech product
Clothes
66%
Travel
Saving
United
5 Arab 92.3 100.0 0.9 44.4 59.4 9
Emirates
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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RETAIL SECTOR
Vacancy Rate
200,000
15%
150,000 80
10%
100,000
40
50,000 5%
- 0% -
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Mar 2018.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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RETAIL SECTOR
HANOI
Only 7% of total retail supply in Hanoi is located in the Particularly, an Emerging CBD will soon to be formed in
CBD. Due to limited land bank, there has been no new the western area of Hanoi. The area covering Cau Giay, Tu
supply since 2013, causing retailers to find alternatives in Liem, and Thanh Xuan district is currently the largest
shop houses. The introduction of walking streets around retail cluster in Non-CBD, accounted for 41% of total
Hoan Kiem Lake has drawn more visitors to this area, supply. It will continue to remain its position in the next
creating ever higher demand for more space. However, few years with 83,300 sm future supply in the pipeline.
currently there is still no expected future supply. Hence,
the CBD is predicted to continue to perform well with a 2018 is expected to be an active year in the Hanoi retail
low vacancy rate and strong asking rental rates. Retailers market with a total of 157,000 sm coming from eight
are also likely to look for creative solutions such as the under-development projects. This is the largest number
conversion of old buildings by Hoan Kiem Lake into of new projects ever planned for a single year and is only
modern retail space, one of which is now the location for surpassed by 2013 in terms of scale. Most of these new
the first McDonalds in Hanoi as well as other F&B stores. projects are located in fast developing residential areas
with good connecting infrastructure and which are
S I G N I F I C AN T N E W S U P P L Y E X P E C T E D I N expected to be attractive to both retailers and consumers.
N O N - C B D AR E AS Hence, despite this new supply causing pressure on the
vacancy rate, the average market rent is still expected to
Meanwhile, the majority of current supply is located in remain relatively stable or even to slightly improve.
different clusters in Non-CBD areas, in residential areas
or other areas with good access to population centres. In In terms of format, malls as a component of residential
the next few years, the Hanoi retail market is likely to complexes will continue to thrive, thanks to a high level
follow the expansion trend of residential and of supply in the condominium market. Eight out of twelve
infrastructure developments. The areas along Ring Road 3 future projects up to 2020 are retail podiums. This format
and the two under-construction metro lines including the has certain advantages such as having resident potential
West, South West, and South will be hot-spots with nearly customers and increased traffic due to the residential
375,000 sqm of retail space coming online over the next component, providing added services and amenities and
three years. Significant projects include Aeon Mall Ha improving the image for the whole project. However,
Dong in addition to several shopping centers by Vincom suitable scale, design and parking spaces will be key
and FLC. The North of the city is also quickly evolving factors for successful malls.
Figure 10: New Supply and Vacancy Rate Figure 11: Rental Outlook
New Supply - Non CBD New Supply - CBD
Vacancy - CBD (RHS) Vacancy - Non CBD (RHS) CBD Non CBD
Forecast 160
Forecast
300,000 25%
Net leasable area, sm
US$/sm/month
Vacancy rate, %
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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LOGISTICS SECTOR
L O GISTICS SECTOR
VIETNAM
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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L O GISTICS SECTOR
VIETNAM
160,000 sm
Hanoi, and the coastal provinces including Hai Phong.
These are the most populated areas of the region, providing
potential consumers and a labour market. Moreover, access
per year to sea ports in the coastal provinces is crucial for industrial
development. The Northern region is welcoming more
interested foreign players in Industrial Park developments.
In the Northern area, with the limited level of new supply,
Vacancy Rate rents are expected to increase by 2.0% in 2018 and 1.5% in
2019 and 2020 while the vacancy rate is expected to decrease
20%
from 22% in 2018 to 19% in 2020.
Figure 12: New Supply and Vacancy Rate Figure 13: Rental Outlook
New Supply - South New Supply - North Rents - South Rents - North
Vacancy Rate - South Vacancy Rate - North Rental Growth - South Rental Growth - North
Forecast Forecast
120 30% 6 15%
NFA ('000 sm)
100 25% 5
% Growth Y-o-Y
12%
US$/sm/month
80 20% 4
Vacancy Rate
9%
60 15% 3
6%
40 10% 2
20 5% 1 3%
0 0% 0 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Mar 2018.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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L O GISTICS SECTOR
VIETNAM
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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CONDOMINIUM
CO NDOMINIU M
VIETNAM
In 2017, the residential market continued its upbeat UPTURN TO CONTINUE IN 2018
sentiment in 2016 and performed well in both Hanoi and The residential business is the crown jewel of many
HCMC. Considering both cities, there were a total of developers right now, thanks to the strong local appetite
66,000 units launched, and 59,000 units sold. and fast capital recovery. However, accompanying the
strong growth of new launch supply and new completion
The condominium concept has recently penetrated the are some concerns about pressure on the secondary and
perception of Vietnamese people. With a lack of public rental market.
housing initiatives, the market is currently being led by
private developers. Townships like Vinhomes Times City There are many positives in the market though: economy
in Hanoi and Phu My Hung in HCMC are getting more is expanding strongly; interest rates & inflation rates have
populated with more commercial activites, creating new been stable for the past few years and are expected to
residential clusters. This vertical urbanism is expected to remain so; income per capita is increasing; local
continue at an accelerated rate, especially with the hand- developers are getting stronger in terms of development
over of many projects in 2018 and 2019. capabilities as well as financial prowess.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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CO NDOMINIU M
Figure 14: New Launch and Sold Units Outlook Figure 15: Primary Pricing Outlook
New launch Sold units Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
45,000 Forecast 6,000 Forecast
40,000
5,000
Primary Price (US$/sm)
35,000
30,000 4,000
25,000
Units
3,000
20,000
15,000 2,000
10,000
1,000
5,000
- 0
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Mar 2018.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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CO NDOMINIU M
HANOI
Figure 16: New Launch and Sold Units Outlook Figure 17: Primary Pricing Outlook
New Launch Sold Units Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Forecast Forecast
40,000 $4,000
35,000 $3,500
Primary Price (US$/sm)
30,000 $3,000
25,000 $2,500
Units
20,000 $2,000
15,000 $1,500
10,000 $1,000
5,000 $500
- $0
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Mar 2018.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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CAPITAL MARKETS
CAPITAL M ARKETS
35 $1,800
$1,600
30
$1,400
No. of transactions
Millions
25 $1,200
20 $1,000
15 $800
$600
10
$400
5 $200
0 $0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Mar 2018.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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CAPITAL M ARKETS
Because of the nature of a developing market, infrastructure developments including future metro line
development sites continued to be the asset type that systems in both Hanoi and HCMC. Strong take-up rates of
recorded the highest number of transactions as well as home sales in the past few years plus continuing demand
the largest transaction volume. Residential and mixed-use for new homes thanks to a still modest ratio of modern
sites were among the most popular types, especially as the home ownership and rising income levels, is expected to
major cities of Hanoi and HCMC continued to see keep interest levels high among residential investors and
another robust year of new home supply and new home developers for at least the next few years. Average home
sales. The remaining properties that changed hands pricing is on a moderate upward trend, but demand for
during 2017 were evenly split between apartments, better quality homes is on the rise. Investors have been
offices, hotels, and retail centres. The urbanization competing to acquire sites at increasingly expensive rates.
process affecting the cities of Hanoi and HCMC has led to Several half-built assets from the previous market cycle
opportunities for properties not just in the existing CBDs, have changed hands and have been revived, clearly
but also in an upcoming CBD (in Hanoi) and in emerging signalling an upbeat market.
residential and commercial hubs such as Thu Thiem and
Thao Dien (in HCMC). This also follows new There were a limited number of transactions of income
producing assets recorded during 2017, indicating a lack
Figure 20: Transaction volume by asset types Figure 21: Office Rental Growth Prospects
Apartment Dev Site Hotel HCMC Rents Hanoi Rents
Office Retail Industrial HCMC Rental Growth, Y-o-Y (RHS) Hanoi Rental Growth, Y-o-Y
$2,000 $40 Forecast 20%
Rent level(US$/sm/month)
$1,000 $20 0%
$0 $0 -20%
2015 2016 2017 2012 2014 2016 2018F 2020F
Source: RCA Analytics Source: CBRE Vietnam, Mar 2018.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc. 2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH
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