Memorial University

Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science

Reliability Engineering, ENGI 9116
Take Home Final Examination
Date: April 15-17, 2017

Please submit your final exam in Bruneau Centre (IIC 1008) or in drop box of ENGI 9116
on or before April 17 by 10 AM

Evaluation: 30% Faisal Khan

Question paper has two sections (A and B) and four pages

Section A (12%)
1. Below is the reference of a research paper on risk-based inspection modeling. Please read
this and provide a summary of what has been done in the paper, how it is done, and how
you could improve this work? [Use Times Roman Font with 12 point size with 1.5 line
spacing; the review paper should not exceed two pages]
Liu, H, Khan, F, and Thodi, P (2017) Revised burst model for pipeline integrity
assessment, Journal of Engineering Failure Analysis,
http://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2017.01.018
(4%)
2. A detector counts pulse for every 100 picoseconds to decide if a distant source is emitting
wave. When the wave source is not emitting wave of specific wavelength, some wave (of
specific wavelength) are still counted by the detector due to the ambient background noise.
The number of wave counted in 10 microseconds is modeled as a random variable X whose
parameter λ has a value of ln(7) if the wave source is not emitting wave, and a value of
ln(32) if the source is emitting wave. The maximum-likelihood detector decides that
detection of light is true if and only if the likelihood ratio, calculated as
!"#$%$&'&() !" !"#"$#%&' !"#$ !"#$ !" !"!"!#$ (!)
!"#$%$&'&() !" !"#"$#%&' !"#$ !"#$ !" !"# !"#$#%& (!)
, exceeds 1. Answer the following questions:

a. What value(s) of X result in a decision in favor of detecting of wave?

b. Compute the false alarm probability (detection when wave is not present) and the
missed detection of the maximum-likelihood decision rule.
(2%)
3. A prototype component was tested at various stress levels with the following results:
Stress Levels
Parameters 150 160 180 200 240 310 380
Weibull volts volts volts volts volts volts volts
β 1.45 1.51 1.48 1.43 1.51 1.53 1.53
Θ (in hours) 3000 2800 2600 2500 2400 2300 2100
Estimate the scale parameter at a normal stress level of 190 volts. Then, estimate the
reliability of the components at 1000 and 5000 operating hours.
(2%)

1
4. A failure distribution of a new $1200 PC is Weibull with β = 2 and θ = 5.6419 yr. Assume
that the PC unit cannot be repaired but must be replaced if failure happens. The first-year
warranty cost is $30 and the second year follow-on warranty cost is $50. Compute the
expected value of having the first- and second-year warranty. Should the warranties be
purchased?
(2%)

5. A Municipality has installed 2000 electric lamps having average life of 1000 hours and
standard deviation 200 hours.
a. How many lamps might be expected to fail in the first 800 hours
b. How many lamps are expected to last between 700 to 1400 hours.
c. At what time 10% of the lamps will be failed?
(2%)

Section B (18%)

Note: Solve the following problems:

(Each 3.0 %)
6. Internal corrosion is a potential failure mechanism of a gas pipeline. Once the protective
coating or the protection system fail, the internal corrosion rate depends largely on the
characteristics of the fluid. The corrosion rate is typically modeled using an empirical
power-law relationship as: 𝑌 = 𝐴𝑡 ! where Y is the corrosion depth per year, t is the
exposure time in years, and A and n are site dependent constants, with n typically less than
1. Below is the data available from a specific site. Estimate the failure probability of 50
mm pipeline in 25 years. Pipeline failure may be defined as failed if 40% of the pipeline
thickness is lost.

Time (years) Corrosion depth (mm)

0 0
2 2.8
4 4.0
5 9.2
8 11.8
12 14.5
15 15.0
17 16.0
19 17.0
7. An offshore platform consists of three large main power generators (MPGs), two operating
and one spare (standby mode). The lifetime of each MPG follows the Weibull distribution
with beta = 2.3 and theta = 40 years. In a given time, two MPGs are used, while third one
can be used to replace a failed unit in 12 days with a cost of $ 5 million. The failure of each
additional unit (beyond the one spare) requires the procurement and installation of a brand
new transformer with a cost of $ 280 million. Estimate the failure probability of the system

2
 and associated risk with the MPGs over the next 20 years of operation considering two
scenarios: (i) spare MPG is available as good as new, and (ii) spare MPG is in failed state.
8. Fatigue testing of a steel alloy resulted in the following S-N curve:
( )
N = 1.7 × 10 24 × S −9.35
Where N is in cycles to failure and S is the stress amplitude in kpsi. The steel alloy is used
to build a structure that experience 5 cycles per second (with coefficient of variation of
0.10) of 40 kpsi stress amplitude (with coefficient of variation of 0.21). Consider load (S)
and resistance (N) are modeled as log normally distributed random variables. Estimate: a)
what would be the mean resistance (N) at design criteria? b) Is the estimated design life of
10 years adequate for this material?
9. The reliability of a dam is defined as the total water level (above seabed), H, should not
exceed the total height of the dam (50 m). The maximum water level, H, depends on sum
of mean sea level, Y, and the wave height, X, above the mean sea level. In a given storm
condition, the dam may be overtopped depending on the wave height X. Equations below
represents the Probability Density Function of annual mean sea level Y and extreme wave
height, X. Determine:
a. The probability of the water level overtopping the dam during an extreme storm
condition.
b. If the dam was overtopped during the storm, what is the probability that the wave
height is exceeding 25 m (X ≥ 25 m)?
c. If the desired reliability is 99.999% (i.e. 99.999% time the water level do not overtops
the dam) over the dam life time 20 years, what should be the minimum height of the
dam?
1
f(y) = 25 m ≤ y ≤ 35 m
b-a
f(x) = 0.1 − 0.00667 x + 1.1×10−4 x 2 0 ≤ x ≤ 30 m

10. A shipboard missile system is composed of two warning radars, a control system, a launch
and guidance system, and the missiles. The radars are arranged so that either can give
warning if the other fails, in a standby redundant configuration. Four missiles are available
for firing and the system is considered to be reliable if three out of four missiles can be
fired and guided. The reliability of each missile is 0.9 on demand [an hour]. Assuming that:
(1) the launch and guidance system is constantly activated, (2) the missile flight time is
negligible and (3) all elements are independent. Consider the failure rate of radars = 0.001
per hour, control system reliability is 0.95 on demand [an hour] and the failure rate of
launch and guidance system = 0.0013 per hour]. Evaluate
a. Reliability of the system over 24 hours,
b. Steady state availability of the system, if the mean repair time for units is 2 hours,
c. Considering all the elements are not independent (have a coefficient of dependence
of 0.2) what would be the reliability of system over 24 hours?

3
11. The Figure below is a block diagram of a process system.

A D F

out
In H
B

E G
C

Assume all component failure modes can be represented by a single basic event failure (for
example, A means failure of “Component A” under all failure modes).
a. Develop a fault tree.
b. Determine the minimum cut sets of this fault tree.
c. Derive the minimum path sets for the fault tree.