Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
(Dynamic list: continually updated dependant on trading style and experience gained)
Disclaimer
All reasonable steps and due diligence have been taken in preparing this document. However, it
may contain ideas that are not appropriate to you or your style of trading, so perform your own
research and draw your own conclusions. By itself, this document will not enhance your trading
performance, nor will it prevent you from incurring losses. Any losses that are incurred are the
sole responsibility of each trader. Under no circumstances will the authors accept any liability for
loss.
1 Acknowledgments
To the many members of the ET community www.elitetrader.com for sharing their insight,
experience and knowledge. Most notably:
Anekdoten:
o For providing the framework to a simple but highly effective trading methodology
“AHG”, the basis of which is the primary trading strategy of this Trading Business
Plan.
o Contribution of custom indicator’s and paint bar codes.
Piscuy:
o Contribution of his “123 Pivot”, “box trading”, scalping and trading strategies.
o Contribution of custom indicator’s and paint bar codes.
Suri Duddella:
o Author, Trade Chart Patterns Like the Pros, © 2007, specific trading techniques.
o The basis from which the majority of trade set-ups have been derived
o Contribution of detailed explanation on adapting his techniques to the “AHG”
method.
(Define complete acknowledgement details)
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Trading Business Plan - Outline
(Plan your trades. Trade your plan)
2 Revision History
Version No. Date Author Changes
HK Draft - 001 12/17/07 Henry Kaiser First Draft
HK Draft - 002 01/11/08 Henry Kaiser Second Draft
HK Draft - 003 TOC, formatting
3 Executive Summary
(prepared upon completion of all details – including overall business plan)
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Trading Business Plan - Outline
(Plan your trades. Trade your plan)
Table of Contents
1 Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................1
2 Revision History.......................................................................................................................2
3 Executive Summary.................................................................................................................2
4 Objectives................................................................................................................................6
4.1 Annual trading goals.........................................................................................................6
4.2 Monthly trading goals.......................................................................................................6
4.3 Weekly trading goals........................................................................................................6
4.4 Daily trading goals............................................................................................................6
5 Business Planning and Budgeting...........................................................................................6
5.1 Profit and Loss Projections - (Spreadsheet to be created)..............................................7
6 Risk Management- (define).....................................................................................................7
7 Money management................................................................................................................7
7.1 Asset allocation................................................................................................................8
7.2 Expectancy Ratio.............................................................................................................8
7.3 Position/Lot Size...............................................................................................................8
7.4 Scaling In (Averaging Up) (confirm and research additional methods)...........................9
7.4.1 Level 1: (Initial) (1/1/1)..............................................................................................9
7.4.2 Level 2: Intermediate (2-1-2-1-2-1)...........................................................................9
7.4.3 Level 3: Advanced (2-1-3-2-4-3)...............................................................................9
7.4.4 Level 4: Highly Advanced (3-2-1-4-3-2-5-4-3)..........................................................9
7.4.5 Optional level 2: Pyramid technique (3/2/1)..............................................................9
7.4.6 Scale In/Scale Out - Combination.............................................................................9
7.5 Scaling Out (confirm and research additional methods)................................................10
7.5.1 Level 1 (Initial) (1/1)................................................................................................10
7.5.2 Level 2: Intermediate (1/1/1)...................................................................................10
7.5.3 Level 3: Advanced ???............................................................................................10
7.5.4 Scale Out / Scale In - Combination.........................................................................10
8 Entry, Exits, Triggers and Stop Loss......................................................................................11
8.1 Entry Signals/Triggers....................................................................................................11
8.2 Entry Points....................................................................................................................11
8.3 Exit Strategies.................................................................................................................11
8.4 Confluence.....................................................................................................................12
8.5 Targets............................................................................................................................12
8.6 Stop Loss........................................................................................................................12
8.7 Nominal Stop..................................................................................................................13
8.8 Stop placement..............................................................................................................13
8.9 Initial Maximum Stop and Minimum Target (to be well defined)....................................13
9 Trading Strategies.................................................................................................................14
10 Patterns Traded (See Appendix)........................................................................................14
11 Indicators............................................................................................................................14
12 Chart Settings....................................................................................................................14
13 Screen Set-up....................................................................................................................15
14 Instrument’s Traded...........................................................................................................15
15 Markets Traded..................................................................................................................15
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16 Trading Hours....................................................................................................................15
17 Trading Limits.....................................................................................................................16
18 Trade Limits - Signals Stop / No Trading...........................................................................16
19 Economic Calendars..........................................................................................................16
20 Trading Journal..................................................................................................................17
21 Third Party Journal Options...............................................................................................17
22 General Rules....................................................................................................................18
23 APPENDIX.........................................................................................................................19
23.1 Disaster Recovery Planning...........................................................................................19
23.2 Brokerage.......................................................................................................................19
23.2.1 Brokerage Contact Information...............................................................................20
23.3 Daily Procedures (Define in greater detail)....................................................................21
23.4 Trading Environment......................................................................................................22
23.4.1 Equipment / Hardware............................................................................................22
23.4.2 Software..................................................................................................................22
23.5 Expenses........................................................................................................................23
23.5.1 Business Expenses (Start-up)................................................................................23
23.5.2 Business Expenses (monthly)................................................................................24
24 Trade Set-Up Checklist(s) - (to be defined).......................................................................25
24.1 Individual Trade Set-Ups - Basic Template (define in greater detail)............................25
24.2 Trade Set-Ups with Diagrams - (to be defined).............................................................27
24.2.1 Trade Set-up Sample #1.........................................................................................28
24.2.2 Expectancy ratio – (Reference calculator)..............................................................28
24.2.3 Reliability of pattern................................................................................................28
24.2.4 Probability of Successful Trade..............................................................................28
24.2.5 Risk/Reward............................................................................................................28
24.2.6 Strategy – applicable..............................................................................................28
24.2.7 Validity period (N-bars)...........................................................................................29
24.2.8 Entry........................................................................................................................29
24.2.9 Stop.........................................................................................................................29
24.2.10 Target...................................................................................................................29
24.2.11 Exit.......................................................................................................................29
24.2.12 Money Management............................................................................................30
24.2.13 Individual Trade Set-up Sample # 2....................................................................31
24.2.14 Individual Trade Set-up Sample # 3 (drop down menu).....................................32
24.3 Specific Order Entry Procedures (to be defined in greater detail).................................33
24.4 Patterns traded (Ref: Trade Chart Patterns like a Pro, Suri Dudella)............................34
24.4.1 Tops and Bottoms...................................................................................................34
24.4.2 Geometric:...............................................................................................................34
24.4.3 Harmonic Patterns:.................................................................................................34
24.4.4 ZigZag.....................................................................................................................34
24.4.5 Price-Action.............................................................................................................35
24.4.6 Exotic Patterns........................................................................................................35
24.4.7 Event Patterns:........................................................................................................35
24.4.8 Channels.................................................................................................................35
24.4.9 Bands......................................................................................................................35
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24.4.10 Additional Patterns..............................................................................................35
24.5 Additional Thoughts........................................................................................................36
24.5.1 Five Fundamental Truths: (Douglas, Trading in The Zone)....................................36
24.5.2 I am a consistent winner because: (Douglas, Trading in The Zone)......................36
24.5.3 Keys to Success......................................................................................................36
24.5.3.1 Discipline..........................................................................................................37
24.5.3.2 Patience...........................................................................................................37
24.5.3.3 Attitude.............................................................................................................37
24.5.3.4 Bias..................................................................................................................38
24.5.3.5 Loss and Failure..............................................................................................38
24.5.4 Life Balance............................................................................................................38
24.5.4.1 Working from Home v External office..............................................................38
24.5.4.2 Marriage, Family & Trading (finding balance)..................................................38
24.6 Back Test and/or Forward Test Results..........................................................................39
24.7 Additional Contributors...................................................................................................39
24.8 Additional Required Elements for Business/Trading Plan:............................................39
24.8.1 Trading Plan pdf – ref: Stealth http://www.online-futurestrading.com/Introduction 39
24.8.2 Additional elements.................................................................................................39
24.8.3 Additional thoughts and comments appreciated.....................................................39
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4 Objectives
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7 Money management
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Trading Business Plan - Outline
(Plan your trades. Trade your plan)
80% of portfolio conservative investments, index’s, bonds, trust deeds etc… (with stop-
loss)
20% maximum of portfolio for aggressive investments / short term trading
Trading account not to exceed 10% of total portfolio
Initial trading account not to exceed $50K 6-months, $100,000 12-months, $200,000 year
2
Allocate 30% of earnings for taxes
Pay self; 20% of net earnings may be spent on discretionary items. Family fund.
o Minimum of 50% of trading net earnings to be re-invested
o Minimum of 75% of investment net earnings to be re-invested
College/retirement fund’s to remain in conservative accounts only (Maximum 60/40
Equity/Bond)
(New strategies)
o 1 car/lot until consistently profitable (3-months minimum) (6-months for novice)
(Established strategies)
o level 1 Scaling In -- 3-months consistent profitability
o level 2 Scaling In -- 3-months consistent profitability
o level 3 Scaling In -- 3-months consistent profitability
o level 4 Scaling In -- Sustained consistent profitability
o level 1 Scaling out -- 3-months consistent profitability
o level 2 Scaling out -- sustained profitability
50% increase of (nominal) car/lot size allowed every 3 months of consistent profitability
Failure to maintain consistent profitability, revert back one level (minimum)
Risk Management limits and position size calculator (to be created)
o Determine Maximum contracts traded per each $10,000 account
Initial contract with fixed value strategy
Initial contract with scale-in strategy
Initial contract with scale-out strategy
Create for Equities and Futures
Define in greater detail
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Design exit strategy before initiating trade. (bracket order) OCO, OSO
o GTC protective stop (simultaneous to trade order)
o GTC Profit target limit order (adjust after trade initiated)
Exit Prior to Major Support/resistance (areas of interest)
Trend reversals
Modified HA Bars used to time exit for potential runners (exits only)
Exit trade when reason entered is no longer valid
Price action
Tighten trailing stop upon
o Reaching initial target
o Approaching major support/resistance
o Approaching recent swing high/low
o Major Pivot points, Daily, Globex, etc….
o Gaps
Exit strategy
o May close trade early under the following conditions
Losing trades
Parameters for remaining in trade have changed
Exit signals – close trade before stop is hit (define)
Winning Trades
Exit Signals to close entire position (protect profits)
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Exit Signals to close partial positions (define)
8.4 Confluence
o List of confirmation indications - confluence
Define in greater detail
Frequency (horizontal)
Amplitude (vertical)
8.5 Targets
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Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
8.9 Initial Maximum Stop and Minimum Target (to be well defined)
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9 Trading Strategies
Trend lines
Horizontal Lines
Market structure (HH’s, LL’s, HL’s, LH’s)
Support and Resistance visual aids
Highs and Lows visual aids
Pivot Points
Volume based bars, tick based bars
Time and sales (tape reading)
Paint bars to accentuate price action
Candlesticks to find additional confirmations
Zig Zag indicators to enhance patterns
Fibonacci Retracement percentages
AHG E-motion (Dynamic Fib retracement)
Modified Heiken Ashi Candle sticks bars
o Modified Paint Bars Anek
o Modified Paint Bars Piscuy
Time & Sales
12 Chart Settings
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ETF’s = to be determined
13 Screen Set-up
Entry Chart
Anchor Chart
Order entry – DOM / Matrix
Time & Sales
14 Instrument’s Traded
15 Markets Traded
US equities / ETF’s
US Index futures
German Futures
16 Trading Hours
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17 Trading Limits
Daily trading limited to 10 round trip trades per day initial 6-months (Intra-day)
3 Swing/position trades (new positions) no limit on closing of positions
o Disciplinary non-compliance procedure / Overtrading Controls
1-week trade limitation
Daily trades limited to maximum of 4 ea. per day
Limited to use of top three most reliable trade set-up’s
Position size limited to minimum for instrument
Maintain trade limitations until accuracy increased to > 75%
(minimum 16-trade average)
o (define in greater detail)
19 Economic Calendars
Define trading rules on specific special events
No Trading on FOMC
No Trading on option expiry day
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20 Trading Journal
Review
o Comparison of Goals and Objectives
Revenue Projections Worksheet
o Compliance to trading plan (discipline)
o Performance of trade set-ups
Modify Trading Plan accordingly
Learn from mistakes
Personal development
www.stocktickr.com
www.wordpress.com
Suggestions Welcomed -- Please!!!
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Trading Business Plan - Outline
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22 General Rules
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23 APPENDIX
23.1 Disaster Recovery Planning
o Internet / connectivity
Primary: Broadband ADSL
Technical support -- 08 92 69 91 13
Back up #1: Dial up connection access telephone number 08 60 00 84 84
ID xxxxxxxxxxxx Password: “reminder”
Back up #2: GPRS / 3G cellular internet access, USB
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23.2 Brokerage
Interactive Brokers
o Trading Desk – Phone (877) 442-2757 or (877) 4IB-BRKR option *1
Secure Transaction Program Hotline (203) 618-4006
Open Hours 24
Account # _________________
Password reminder: (never save passwords in computer files)
TradeStation Securities
o Trading Desk – Futures Phone: (800) 837-8951 or (954) 652-7930
Open 24 hours: Sunday, 3:30pm – Friday, 5:30pm ET
Account #_________________
Password reminder: (never save passwords in computer files)
o Trading Desk – Stocks and Options Phone: (800) 871-3563 or (954) 652-7915
Monday – Thursday, 7:30am – 6:30pm ET
Friday, 7:30am – 5:00pm ET
Account # _________________
Password reminder: (never save passwords in computer files)
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In emergency must take opposite position with Interactive Brokers
Account # _________________
Password reminder: (never save passwords in computer files)
List of open position
Obtain confirmation
Note: Imagine the worst-case scenario and plan what you would do. (define in greater
detail)
o List step by step actions in the order you would proceed.
o All part of an overall plan.
Activity Plan by time of day. Plan the day ahead, hour by hour
(Paris Schedule)
0200 hrs. EST - Make coffee… ;o)
Analyze previous day’s trades
o Analyze and log previous days trades (if unable evening prior)
Update trading journal
Annotate any deviations from trading plan
o Review and open positions and update targets and stops
Pre-market Activity
Analyze Market conditions for (swing, position trades)
o Assess current days market conditions and plan accordingly
o Make an initial selection of possible instruments to trade
o Determine major S/R
Daily Pivots
Globex Pivots (Overnight Globex Market Review)
Anchor Trend line
Anchor Swing High/Lows
Pre-Market Gaps
(define in greater detail)
0330 hrs. EST Monitor DAX for suitable trade opportunities…
0330 hrs. EST Monitor US Futures for suitable trade opportunities
1000-1200 hrs. EST - Morning Session US Markets
1330-1530 hrs. EST - Afternoon Session US Markets
1530-1600 hrs. EST – Close positions Futures (trailing or discretionary)
Record and review day’s trades and activities
o Complete trading journal
o Annotate and save charts
o Review and analyze days performance
Note: Trade activity to be entered real time as occurs when possible
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AHG - Check Bias at door for (intra-day)
o Wait patiently for favorable trade set-ups
o Wait for confirmation
23.4.2 Software
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Quotetracker – Charting
Stocktickr – www.stocktickr.com Trade log & journal
Tradelog - www.armencomp.com Trade & accounting
Microsoft office
o Word – word processer
o Excel – spreadsheets
Norton 360 Anti-Virus
Adobe Acrobat Pro
FastStone Capture –screen capture
23.5 Expenses
23.5.1 Business Expenses (Start-up)
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Tradestation Securities (US Index futures, German Index futures, Back up Equities)
o $100 -- Platform fee (Waived with 10-round trips “$48 commission”)
o $50 -- Data fee
o $500 -- Opportunity cost per ($50,000 deposited) (ref: 12% trust deed)
Office expense
o $500 -- allocated
o $100 – miscellaneous
Software
o $80 – (Button, Bracket or Ninja) Front end for TWS (Interactive Brokers)
o $50 -- Tradelog – Tax preparation software ($297/annual fee unlimited records)
o $50 -- Stockpkr (Trading Journal)
o $7 -- Quotetracker (secondary charting)
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Pattern Diagram (annotated with entry, stop, target, potential exit points)
Determine Prevailing Trend
o Major 1 (anchor) (Daily)
o Major 2 (anchor) (10K cvb NQ)
o Minor (current) (1K cvb NQ)
Identify Support
o S1 - Minor
o S2 - Major
Identify Resistance
o R1 - Minor
o R2 – Major
Identify Points of Interest
o Recent Swing Highs/Lows
o Daily Pivots
o Globex High
o Globex Low
o Consolidation Areas
o Gaps
Money Management
o Pre-defined lot size Cars/Dollar amount
o Scale-In (average up)
o Scale-Out
Entry
o Entry #1 = Initial
o Entry #2+ = Scale-in points
Exit
o Exit # 1 = Initial Target
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Minimum previous swing high/low
Pattern height
o Exit # 2 = Scale-out points
In trend: relative to prior pivots
In trend: designated points per specific pattern
Stop
o Stop #1 = Initial / Protective (capital)
o Stop #2 = entry (close to BE)
o Stop #3+ = Trailing
Confirmation
o Confirmation #1
o Confirmation #2
o Confirmation #3
o (List confirmation signals – primary)
Confirmation (magic) tick on the entry chart and/or anchor chart, prefer both
Anchor and Entry Chart corresponding signal
Confirmed 3bar-reversal at/or near trendline in direction of prevailing trend
o Confluence
o (List confirmation signals - supporting)
Time and sales
Frequency (and wave amplitude)
(List warning and threat signals)
(Define in greater detail)
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24.2.5 Risk/Reward
Stop Target
> 4/1
> 3/1
> 2/1
> 1/1
3-bars
4-bars
5-bars
N-bars
24.2.8 Entry
24.2.9 Stop
24.2.10 Target
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Target #3 - Major Support/Resistance (define in greater detail)
24.2.11 Exit
Exit #1 - (define)
Exit #2 - (define)
Exit #3 - (define)
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Reliability = Moderate
Probability Of Successful Trade = 60%
Risk/Reward > 3
Strategy = Intra-day
Validity period (N-bars) = N/A
Entry = Breakdown bar (signal) + one confirmation tick
Stop = one tick above signal bar or previous swing high (dependant upon volatility)
o Moved to protect profits upon reaching initial target
o Trend line trailing procedure (moving stop at swing points)
Target = Previous swing low
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o Secondary targets, next point of interest
Exit = trend reversal after reaching initial target
Money Management
o Single car size
o Scale-in
o Scale out
Pattern Confirmation (Confluence)
o Anchor support (prevailing trend down)
o Fib-retracement levels (ME)
o Previous Swing lows
o Other points of interest
Reliability = moderate
Probability Of Successful Trade = 60%
Risk/Reward > 3
Strategy = intra-day
Validity period (N-bars) = 4-bars
Entry = breakdown bar (signal) + one confirmation tick
Stop = one tick above signal bar or previous swing high (dependant on volatility)
o Moved to protect profits upon reaching initial target
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Target #1 = previous swing low
Target #2 = next swing low
Exit = trend reversal after reaching initial target
Money Management = nominal lot size
Pattern Confirmation (Confluence)
o Anchor support (prevailing trend down)
o Fib-retracement levels (ME)
o Previous Swing lows
o Other points of interest
Tradestation
o OSO
o OCO
o Bracket orders
o Auto stop
o Trailing stop
Scale-out procedure
Scale-in procedure
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Button Trader (Front end TWS)
o OSO
o OCO
o Bracket orders
o Auto stop
o Trailing stop
Scale-out procedure
Scale-in procedure
24.4 Patterns traded (Ref: Trade Chart Patterns like a Pro, Suri Dudella)
24.4.1 Tops and Bottoms
24.4.2 Geometric:
Triangles
Rectangle Pattern
Flags
Wedge Pattern Patterns
Diamond Pattern
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24.4.3 Harmonic Patterns:
ABC Patterns
Gartley Pattern
Bat Pattern
Butterfly Pattern
Crab Pattern
24.4.4 ZigZag
ZigZag Patterns
Elliot Wave
Crown Pattern
24.4.5 Price-Action
Dragon Pattern
Sea Horse Pattern
Scallop Pattern
Gaps
Dead Cat Bounce
Island Reversal Pattern
24.4.8 Channels
Rectangle
Donchian
Broadening (Megaphone)
Linear Regression
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Andrew’s Pitchfork
24.4.9 Bands
Bollinger
Keltner
Fibonacci
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Discipline
Patience
Proper Attitude
Bias (Neutral)
Money Management
Risk Management
Well defined objectives
24.5.3.1 Discipline
24.5.3.2 Patience
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Avoid getting in or out of the market too often
24.5.3.3 Attitude
Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose. Another opportunity will present
itself.
Don't take the market home.
Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low (small stops will protect your)
Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
Beware of large positions that can control your emotions.
Don't be overly aggressive with the market.
Only take positions which you are comfortable with and can accept if trade goes south.
You must believe in yourself and your judgment if you expect to make a living at this
game.
Be humble - on every trade there exists a more experienced trader on other side
24.5.3.4 Bias
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(To be Defined)
ET member: c.profitt
ET member: JJ-AW (Dusseldorf, Germany)
ET member bmwhendrix
ET member: fishoilfan
ET member: Brutus boy
IRC Chat Ops: Mekas
Timeframe.
Choosing an Instrument to Trade.
The Trade Set-up.
Entry Rules.
Stop Loss Rules.
Profit Taking Exits.
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Ways to Improve the Profit per Trade.
Money Management Rules.
Conclusion.
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