SIMPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS

(Analisis Regresi Sederhana)

BASICS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS

In regression analysis, you develop a model that can be used to predict the values of a
dependent or response variable based on the values of one or more independent or
explanatory variables.

SIMPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS (CONCEPT)

The statistical method that uses a straight- line relationship to predict a numerical dependent
variable Y from a single numerical independent variable X.

SIMPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS (INTERPRETATION)

Simple linear regression attempts to discover whether the values of the dependent Y (such as
store sales) and the independent X variable (such as the size of the store), when graphed on a
scatterplot would suggest a straight- line relationship of the values.

DETERMINING THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION

After you determine that a straight- line relationship exists between a dependent variable Y
and the independent variable X, you need to determine which straight- line to use to represent
the relationship. Two values define any straight line: the Y intercept and the slope.

INTERCEPT
The value of Y when X = 0, represent by the symbol bo or a

SLOPE
The change in Y per unit change in X represented by the symbol b1. Positive slope means Y
increases as X increases. Negative slope means Y decreases as X increases.

LEAST- SQUARES METHOD (CONCEPT)

The simple linear regression method that minimizes the sum of the squared differences
between the actual values of the dependent variable Y and the predicted values of Y.
LEAST- SQUARES METHOD (INTERPRETATION)
For plotted sets of X and Y values, there are many possible straight- lines, each with each
own values of b0 and b1, that might seem to fit the data. The least square method finds the
values for the Y intercept and the slope that makes the sum of the squared differences
between the actual values of the dependent variable Y and the predicted values of Y as small
as possible.

INTERPRETATION
The Y intercept and the slope are known as te regression coefficients, The symbol bo is used
for the Y ontercept, and the symbol b1 is used for the slope. Multiplying a specific X value by
the slope and then adding the Y intercept generates the correspponding Y value. The equation
Y = bo +b1X is used to express this relationship for the entire line. (some sources use the
symbol a for the Y intercept and b for the slope to form the equation Y = a+bX
Iklan : X
Produk yang terjual : Y
Berapa banyak produk yang terjual ketika iklan nol : intercept
Berapa banyak peningkatan atau kenaikan produk yang terjual ketika iklan naik 1 : slope.

EXTRAPOLASI
Kita tidak bisa memprediksi harga yang trend- nya tidak ada pada rentang data yang
disediakan.

Contoh Regresi
Langkah
Analyze  regression  linear  lama independent  Skor dependent  ok

Mencari Variasi Pada Y

Model Summary

Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Model R R Square Square Estimate

1 .923a .852 .848 3.87236

a. Predictors: (Constant), lama_belajar

Kesimpulan
Variasi pada Y dapat dijelaskan sebesar 85% oleh predictor X

Menentukan rumus/ formula

Coefficientsa

Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

1 (Constant) 51.124 1.627 31.420 .000

lama_belajar .652 .047 .923 13.995 .000

a. Dependent Variable: skor

Y = 51. 124 + (0.652) X

Kesimpulan
Setiap X naik sebesar 1 satuan, maka Y akan naik sebesar 0.652.
Hitunglah nilai Y (prestasi siswa) jika X (lama belajar) adalah 17 jam!

Y = 51. 124 + (0.652) 17

=.....
Kesimpulan
Jika X adalah 17 jam maka nilai yang mungkin diperoleh siswa adalah ....

Latihan 1

Model Summary

Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Model R R Square Square Estimate

1 .762a .581 .566 22.66879

a. Predictors: (Constant), tes

Variasi pada Y dapat dijelaskan sebesar 58% oleh predictor X

Coefficientsa
 Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

1 (Constant) 105.887 41.609 2.545 .017

tes 3.494 .561 .762 6.230 .000

a. Dependent Variable: toefl

Y = 105.887 + (3.494) X

UJIANNYA 3 ANALISIS: ANOVA, ANCOVA, REGRESI