Estimation of Future Traffic

Background

This sections shows the traffic projection starting 2018 to 2047 using the data from the
traffic count. As the number of occupants of the proposed project increases, the projected
traffic is further forecasted annually for the analysis of traffic. The assumed growth was
specified in previous chapters. Person trips are converted to vehicle trips to determine the
number of vehicle trips that will mix with the volume of vehicles computed without the
project. Computations of forecasted volume of vehicles were up to year 2047. At this
point the proposed Suntrust Solana along Natividad Lopez St. was assumed to have
completely occupied and will have constant inbound and outbound trips. For NCR, the
traffic growth rates (TGR) the different vehicle classifications are provided in Table 5.1.
Specifically, the TGR for the City of Pasay will be used in the case of this study.

Region Motor- Passenger Passenger Goods Small Large Rigid Rigid

Truck Truck Truck Truck
Tricycle Car Trail utility Bus Bus Truck Truck
Semi Semi Trailers Trailers
2 3+
Trailer Trailer 4 axles 5+
axles axles
3&4 5+ Axles
axles Axles
NCR 2.231 3.801 2.231 1.932 2.231 2.231 1.932 1.932 1.932 1.932 1.932 1.932

Table 5.1 Traffic growth rates for NCR

Source: DPWH 2011

The “without development” and “with development” scenarios are considered in the
study. “Without development” includes forecasts of the baseline data and would show the
increase in traffic flows in the absence of the proposed office space and warehouse along
Natividad Lopez St. but with typical background development and growth (i.e., other
areas in the influence area of the project will develop). The traffic generated by the
proposed development will be added to the “without development” values to come up
with values for the “with development” case. The succeeding sections discuss the two
scenarios and show the estimates over the planning horizon.
Future Traffic Without Development (AM peak hour)

ROAD 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2037 2047
T1 245 255 264 273 282 292 302 313 324 335 313 663
T2 217 227 237 247 258 270 281 294 307 320 348 757
T3 283 295 305 315 326 338 345 362 374 387 361 767
T4 287 300 313 327 341 356 372 388 406 423 601 1001

Future Traffic Without Development (PM peak hour)

ROAD 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2037 2047
T1 208 216 224 232 240 248 257 265 275 284 251 544
T2 170 178 186 194 202 211 221 230 240 251 356 568
T3 204 213 220 228 235 244 252 261 270 279 246 534
T4 230 241 251 262 274 286 298 311 325 339 465 768

Future Traffic With Development (AM peak hour)

ROAD 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2037 2047
T1 368 383 396 410 423 438 453 420 486 503 470 995
T2 326 341 356 371 387 405 422 441 461 480 522 1138
T3 425 443 458 473 489 507 518 543 561 581 542 1151
T4 431 450 470 491 512 534 558 582 609 635 902 1502

Future Traffic With Development (PM peak hour)

ROAD 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2037 2047
T1 312 324 336 348 360 372 386 398 413 426 377 816
T2 255 267 279 291 303 317 332 345 360 377 534 852
T3 305 320 330 342 353 366 378 392 405 419 369 801
T4 345 362 377 393 411 429 447 467 488 509 698 1152