Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
March 2016
1
Forward Looking Statements
Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities
laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements reflect the
Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements
concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and
other statements, which are other than statements of historical facts. All statements, other than statements of
historical facts, that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, projects, believes or
anticipates will or may occur in the future, including, without limitation, the delivery of vessels, the outlook for
tanker shipping rates, general industry conditions future operating results of the Company’s vessels, capital
expenditures, expansion and growth opportunities, bank borrowings, financing activities and other such matters,
are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations stated in this presentation
are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking
statements. Important factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from those
discussed in the forward-looking statements include the failure of counterparties to fully perform their obligations
to us, the strength of the world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including changes in tanker
vessel charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand for tankers, changes in our vessel operating
expenses, including dry-docking, crewing and insurance costs, or actions taken by regulatory authorities, ability of
customers of our pools to perform their obligations under charter contracts on a timely basis, potential liability
from future litigation, domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to
accidents and political events or acts by terrorists. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any
forward looking statement contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise, except as required by law. In light of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward looking
events discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those
anticipated in these forward-looking statements.
2
Section 1
Euronav at a Glance
2
3
Euronav – Largest Tanker Company in the World
Committed to shareholder
1MM barrels 2MM barrels 3 MM barrels 2.8 MM barrels long-term value creation…
Avg. age 10 years Avg. age 6 years Avg. age 12 years Avg. age 12 years
… with significant direct return to
shareholders
Notes:
1. Only 4 V-Plus vessels in world fleet
Most liquid big tanker player in the
world
1 ~ USD 27,300 / day for VLCC – OpEx / day USD 8,165 3 Each USD 5,000 uplift (above break-even) in both VLCC and
Suezmax rates improves net revenue and EBITDA
~ USD 24,000 / day for Suezmax – OpEx / day USD 7,520
by USD 72 million
Fixed Income
Returns to Shareholders
2 > USD 100 million of EBITDA (1) generated annually from 4 Return 80% of net income to shareholders (2)
fixed income contracts (FSO + TC contracts)
INCREMENTAL VLCC DEMAND FOR 1.2 MBPD ADDITIONAL EXPORTS = 36 – 49 VLCC PER YEAR
1.2 mbpd x 365 days = 440m barrels
440m barrels / 2m capacity per VLCC = 220 cargoes
220 cargoes / 4.5 annual journeys for VLCC (1) = 49 VLCCs
Europe
Russia
Asia Pacific
Middle East
U.S.
22 – 24
VLCCs China
24 – 26
VLCCs
29 – 32
West Africa
WHAT WE DO VLCCs
Supply 48 – 50
48 – 50 VLCCs
Exporter VLCCs
Supply 52 – 54
VLCCs
Demand
5
Euronav - Most Liquid Big Tanker Player
More Trading Hours Euronext Brussels: 9 a.m. – 5. 30 p.m. (CET) Ticker Symbol: EURN
NYSE: 9.30 a.m. – 4 p.m. (EST)
TOTAL TRADED VALUE OF EURONAV US AND BB SHARES (SAME SHARE) - EURN US EQUITY & EURN BB EQUITY
100%
70%
Average daily volume USD =
60% USD 20 mm per day
50%
40%
Velocity = 334%*
30%
20%
0% *Calculation method =
daily volume x trading days / free float
Industry Dynamics
5
7
Oil Tankers – Five Key Drivers
Demand for Oil Supply of Oil Ton Miles Supply of Vessels Financing
ROBUST EXCESS BALANCED MANAGEABLE NEW BARRIER
TO ENTRY
• Trade lines established • Natural replacement • New regulations
• Oil demand growing • Market share strategy from production in West cycle of 5% p.a. (Basel 2&3) restricting
last 25 years • USA production shale: to consumption in East • Order book largely lending
• Yearly average 1.1 very resilient & • Ton miles a dynamic industrial not • Distress in shipping
mbpd responsive function in tankers speculative loans has reduced risk
• IEA forecast 1.2m bpd • Iran increase of 900k • Chinese imports • Order velocity appetite
EVERY year to 2020 bpd diversification substantially fallen since • Shipyards under
• 1.2 m bpd oil demand • USA crude exports to Q3 2015 pressure to reform
growth = for 36-49 increase ton miles
VLCCs
1 2 3 4 5
8
Oil Price – Impact on Demand 1 Demand for Oil
110
Lack of disruption/market share game
Iran and other supply remain high Demand Destructive
100
Shale - as swing producer increases
output 2009 - 2014 proved in this oil
90
price range that demand was
destroyed
80
70
Neutral
60
50 Demand Stimulating
proven over time that the cheaper
40 the commodity price the greater it
is used
30
Demand Disruptive
20 Current structure of global markets
mean energy/capex/sovereign wealth
10 Capex cuts in E&P effects > consumer stimulus from
Potential coordinated cuts in production lower oil prices
QE returns/$ loss of value/oil as financial asset
0
9
Demand – steady and robust outlook 1 Demand for Oil
1.9 95 70
2 1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5 1.5
1.4
1.5 1.3
1.1
1 1 1
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-0.5 94 50
93.5 40
average
Actual demand (million barrels) Average oil price
Source IEA
10
China, Oil Demand & Oil Tankers 1 Demand for Oil
CHINA OIL DEMAND – VERY STEADY (UNLIKE GDP GROWTH) CHINA CRUDE OIL IMPORT DIVERSIFICATION CONTINUES
35 14 Source Bloomberg
12
25
Iran 6%
0 6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Iraq 9% Angola 10%
Oil imports (million barrels per day) Real GDP growth (%)
CHINA OIL DEMAND – TO BE DRIVEN BY THE CONSUMER NOT INDUSTRY STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE – SPR A KEY DRIVER
In China, transportation (road and air) makes up about 42% of demand for oil
Additional 110 mm bbls in 2016 (source: BP)
600
Other
14.2% Transport 500
(road and
million barrels
air - 400
consumer-
led) 300
42.1%
200
Industrial
usage 100
28.8%
0
Commercial
heating (mix
industry and
Source Bloomberg consumer) Source Argus, FGE, Reuters, Barclays Research
14.9% 11
China & Oil Tankers – Four Reasons for Confidence 1 Demand for Oil
1
2 12m bpd x 55d = 660m bbls today
3
1 • “Use it or lose it” element to the licences
• Substitution demand – new for tankers
Refinery legislation
anniversary June ’16
2500
UAE 2.9
1200
* includes bio fuel
2000
1000 Iraq 4.3
1500
800
1000
400 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SHALE OIL SPEED TO PRODUCTION IS KEY OPEC QUOTAS? … OPEC HAS NEVER COMPLIED WITH QUOTAS
3.3 3.5
3.0 3.1
2.5
0.6
Europe
Russia
Asia Pacific
U.S.
22 – 24
VLCCs China
24 – 26
VLCCs
29 – 32
VLCCs
40
30
62
54
49
20
30
24 23
0 -1
-5 -8 -7
-13 -11
-25 -22
-8
-20 -10
-16
-48
15
Order Book Dynamics – Structure - Suezmax 4 Supply of Vessels
45 Q3=4
Q4=15
Q1=1 Q1=3
35 Q2=4 Q2=4
27 Q1=3
Q3=2
Q3=10 Q2=4
Q4=1
Q4=12 Q3=2
25
45
Q4=1
43
38
15 10
27
5 8 10
-3
-7 -7 -6 -7
-5 -9
-19 -20
-15 -5
-8
-17
-25 Could be scrapped (≥20 years old) depending on market levels
BASE CASE Net:19 Net:36 Net:25 Net:20 Net:-1 Net:10 Net:24 Net:39 Net:3
Source Clarkson
16
Order Book – Logical Fleet Renewal – VLCC 4 Supply of Vessels
ORDERS FROM INDUSTRIAL SHIPPING ARE DIFFERENT THAN ORDERS FROM SPECULATIVE SHIPPING
20
15
10 19
16
14 14
12
5 9
5 4
0 1 1 2 2
3 4
3 1
7
-5 10
6 14 13 14 1
-10 3
21
17
8
-15 2 3
8
-20
3
-25 8 7
6
-30 23
-35
-40
25 23
Number of vessels
20
• Industrial players don’t order to speculate on
asset value
delivered
15
10
6 • Industrial players run their ships on committed
5
programs less in the spot market
0
2016 2017 2018 2019
Source Clarkson
*including independent owners backed by private equity
17
Financing
Increasing Barriers to Entry 5
HUGE
REDUCTION REGULATIONS PRIVATE SHIP OWNERS SHIPYARD
IN SHIPPING FORCE EQUITY IN UNDER PRESSURE TO
BANK LEVERAGE RETREAT PRESSURE RESTRUCTURE
EXPOSURE DOWN & REDUCE
Around USD 70bn CAPACITY
• Other shipping
withdrawn from shipping • Banks lending • PE exiting shipping segments: Dry Bulk, • Low order books in all
sector since 2008 flexibility severely shipping segments
• PE been surprised by Offshore, Container
curtailed due to Basel the lack of liquidity under severe financial leading to ship yard
Bank (USD bn) 2008 2014
II & III implying a return to the pressure distress
HSH Nordbank 58 25.5 • Shipping & Energy sector as difficult to • Most tanker owners • Reforms being
Deutsche loans in distress realize have mixed fleets so actively adopted by
Schiffsbank/ 44.8 14.7
Commerzbank • Quantum of available pressure felt within shipyards driven by
RBS 30 12
lending capital ownership structure governments
restricted for
Lloyds/HBOS 12.2 0
commercial reasons
HVB/UniCredit 11.2 5.7
18
BULL CASE BEAR CASE
• China oil demand by very diverse • Asset values falling despite positive
range of factors tanker earnings trend
• Base effect of economy consuming
CHINA – GROWTH 12m bpd key
ASSET VALUES • Lower NAV reduces valuation
support
$ barrier to entry
• Restricted access reducing vessel
supply growth SLOWDOWN
• Tanker market - a transportation
sector geared into GDP growth
19
Section 3
Our Strategy
16
20
Maximizing Value Through Information
2 Ship Owner, 52
NIOC, 37
MOL, 32
NYK, 21
SK Holdings, 18 Heidmar Navig8 China VLCC
10 – 15 Ship Owner, 103 – VLCC Seawolf – VL8
Source: Clarkson’s – Total 658 VLCC ships @ February 2016 Source: Company reports
21
Capital allocation strategy
CAPITAL ALLOCATION
M&A criteria –
M&A – operational Shareholder Returns
balance sheet
22
Euronav Positioned for Powerful Cash Generation
WELL POSITIONED FOR STRONG CASH FLOW PRO FORMA FLEET EARNINGS CAPABILITY
GENERATION (EBITDA, $MM) (1)
1,500 1,092
1
Breakeven (including debt service):
650
~ USD 27,300 / day for VLCC – OpEx / day USD 8,165 1,000 493
~ USD 24,000 / day for Suezmax – OpEx / day USD 7,520 339
500
264
2 0
+$5,000 +$15,000 +$25,000 +$55,000
per day per day per day per day
Fixed Income
> USD 100 million of EBITDA (2) generated annually VLCC
from fixed income contracts (FSO + TC contracts) TCE RATES
$25,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $80,000
SUEZMAX
$20,000 $25,000 $35,000 $45,000 $75,000
TCE RATES
3
Returns to Shareholders
Return 80% of net income to shareholders (3)
Each USD 5,000 uplift (above breakeven) in
both VLCC and Suezmax rates improves net
revenue and EBITDA by
Notes:
1. Based on full year contribution of 57 ships on proportionate basis’
USD 72MM
2. Proportionate consolidation method
3. P&L definition
23
Section 5
Supplemental Materials
22
24
Appendix - Ton mile dynamic – still more to deliver 3 Ton Miles
Europe
Asia
U.S.
Middle East
MOST TANKER OWNERS HEAVILY EXPOSED TO OTHER SHIPPING ORDER BOOK AS % OF FLEET – MANAGEABLE
Orderbook as a % of Fleet
Source Clarksons
1000 (%)
60
900
800 50
700
0-5 VLCCs owned (120) 40
600
5-9 VLCCs owned (11)
500 30
10-14 VLCCs owned (9)
400
15-19 VLCCs owned (3) 20
300 20++ VLCCs owned (9)
10
200
100 0
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Suezmax Aframax Product Dyr Bulk Container VLCC Suezmax
Source Clarksons
IRANIAN FLEET RE-ADMITTANCE TO GLOBAL FLEET – NEUTRAL IMPACT AGE PROFILE OF VLCC FLEET – SCRAPPING TO RISE 2018+
17 VLCCs
trading during sanction (# of Vessels)
to China, Turkey, India, Taiwan 70 63
Syria, S Korea and Japan
4x2013, 4x2012, 6x2008, 1x2007, Iranian 60 56
52
2x2004
VLCC fleet
49
50
total 40
39 37 36 39
40
7 VLCCs 30 29 31 29
30 27 25
been on storage 24
20
Only net 15
3x2013, 1x2012, 2x2009, 1x2008 18 16
20 13
10 8
8 VLCCs VLCCs to re- 10
been on storage
near 3rd special survey
enter global 0
0-5 Years 5-10 Years 11-15 Years 16-20 Years +
5x2003, 3x2002 commercial = 186 = 194 = 160 = 111
8 VLCCs fleet
Source Clarksons
full time storage
1993-1999 vintage
Source Citi
26
Appendix – Cost of Dry-Dock by Age Profile 4 Supply of Vessels
million USD
Suezmax
ORDERS FROM INDUSTRIAL SHIPPING ARE DIFFERENT THAN ORDERS FROM SPECULATIVE SHIPPING
35
30
25
20
15 31
10
5 12
2 3 3 3 4 2
0 2 1 1 1
3 5 2 1 3 1
3 6
-5 9
5 17
-10
12
9 9
-15
-20 8
-25
-30 23 23
16
-35
-40
-45
Source: Clarckson ≥20 years old ≥17.5 years old ≥15 years old
SPECULATIVE SHIPPING*
14 13 13
12
Number of vessels
10
delivered
0
2016 2017 2018 2019