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Common Stock Valuation:
Concepts and Basic Tools
How common stocks are traded
•Primary Market
• New securities (IPO)
•Secondary Market
• Previously‐issued securities
•Common Stock
• Ownership shares in publicly‐held
corporation
• Dividend yield & Capital gain yield
Facts About Common Stock
• Represents ownership
• Ownership implies control
• Stockholders elect directors
• Directors elect management
• Management’s goal: Maximize the stock
price
Intrinsic Value and Stock Price
• Outside investors, corporate insiders, and
analysts use a variety of approaches to
estimate a stock’s intrinsic value (P0).
• In equilibrium we assume that a stock’s price
equals its intrinsic value.
– Outsiders estimate intrinsic value to help
determine which stocks are attractive to buy
and/or sell.
– Stocks with a price below (above) its intrinsic
value are undervalued (overvalued).
Estimated Value and Market Price
Intrinsic
Undervalued: value >
market price
Intrinsic
Fairly valued: value =
market price
Intrinsic
Overvalued: value <
market price
Dealing with Uncertainty
Confidence in
intrinsic value
estimate
Uncertainties
related to model
appropriateness
and the correct
value of inputs
Major Categories of Equity Valuation Models
Value of an investment = present
value of expected future benefits
Future benefits Future benefits
= dividends = free cash flow
Dt FCFE t
V0 V0
t 1 (1 r ) t t 1 (1 r ) t
How common stocks are valued
• Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Formula
• Value of a stock = present value of future cash flows
5 110100
Expectedreturn .15
100
How common stocks are valued
• Price of share of stock is present value of future cash
flows
• For a stock, future cash flows are dividends and
ultimate sales price (one‐period)
Div1 P1
Price P0
1 r
How common stocks are valued
•Example
• Fledgling Electronics price
5 110
Price P0 100
1.15
How common stocks are valued
• Example
• Fledgling Electronics forecasted to pay $5.00 dividend at end of year 1
and $5.50 dividend at end of year 2. End‐of‐second‐year stock will be
sold for $121. Discount rate is 15%. What is the price of stock?
5 . 00 5 . 50 121
PV
(1 . 15 ) 1
(1 . 15 ) 2
PV $ 100 . 00
The Gordon Growth Model (Dividend
Assumptions:
discount model –DDM)
• Dividends are the correct metric to use for valuation
purposes.
• The dividend growth rate is forever: It is perpetual and never
changes.
• The required rate of return is also constant over time.
• The dividend growth rate is strictly less than the required rate
of return.
D0 (1 g ) t D0 (1 g ) D1
V0
t 1 (1 r ) t
rg rg
EUR5.00(1 0.04)
V0 EUR130
0.08 0.04
When Is the Gordon Growth Model Most
Appropriate for Valuing Equity?
Dividend‐ Insensitive to
paying the business
company cycle
Use the
Mature growth
Gordon growth
phase
model
Estimating a Long‐Term Growth Rate
– Where does g come from?
g = Retention ratio (b) × Return on retained earnings
(ROE)
Using the DDM to Find R
• Start with the DGM:
D 0 (1 g) D1
P0
R -g R -g
Rearrange and solve for R:
D 0 (1 g) D1
R g g
P0 P0
Estimating Return Measurements
Div1
Dividend yield
P0
• Growth opportunities are opportunities to invest in
positive NPV projects.
• The value of a firm can be conceptualized as the sum
of the value of a firm that pays out 100% of its
earnings as dividends plus the net present value of
the growth opportunities.
EPS
P NPVGO
R
Stock price and earnings per share
• If firm pays lower dividend and reinvests funds, stock price may
increase due to higher future dividends
• Payout Ratio
• Fraction of earnings paid out as dividends
• Plowback Ratio
• Fraction of earnings retained by firm
Stock price and earnings per share
• Example
• Company plans $8.33 dividend next year (100% of
earnings). Investors will get 15% expected return.
Instead, company plows back 40% of earnings at
firm’s current return on equity of 25%. What is
the stock value before and after plowback
decision?
stock price and earnings per share
• No Growth
8 . 33
P0 $ 55 . 56
. 15
• With Growth
• Stock price remains at $55.56 with no earnings
plowed back
• With plowback, price is $100.00
• Difference is called present value of growth
opportunities (PVGO)
Use
multistage
dividend
discount
model
The Two‐Stage Dividend Discount Model
D 0 1 g S
n t
Vn
V0
t 1 (1 r ) t
(1 r ) n
D n 1
Vn
r gL
D n 1 D 0 1 g S 1 g L
n
The Two‐Stage Dividend Discount Model
D 1 $ 5 . 00 (1 0 . 10 ) $ 5 . 50
D 2 $ 5 . 00 (1 0 . 10 ) 2 $ 6 . 05
D 3 $ 5 . 00 (1 0 . 10 ) 3 $ 6 . 655
D 4 $ 5 . 00 (1 0 . 10 ) 3 (1 0 . 05 ) $ 6 . 98775
$ 6 . 98775
V3 $ 69 . 8775
0 . 15 0 . 05
$ 5 . 50 $ 6 . 05 $ 6 . 655 $ 69 . 8775
V0
1 0 . 15 (1 0 . 15 ) 2
(1 0 . 15 ) 3
(1 0 . 15 ) 3
V 0 $ 59 . 68
Major Categories of Equity Valuation Models
Group or sector of stocks
Use price multiples as a
screen
Identify overvalued and
undervalued stocks
Popular Price Multiples
Price‐to‐earnings
• Stock price ÷ earnings per share
ratio (P/E)
Price‐to‐book
• Stock price ÷ book value per share
ratio (P/B)
Price‐to‐sales
• Stock price ÷ sales per share
ratio (P/S)
Price‐to‐cash flow
• Stock price ÷ cash flow per share
ratio (P/CF)
Justified Value of a Multiple
Fundamentals or cash
flow predictions
Discounted cash flow
model
Justified value of a
multiple
Justified Forward P/E for Nestlé
Required Rate of Return = 12 percent
Constant Dividend Dividend Payout Ratio
Growth Rate 40.0% 42.5% 45.0% 47.5% 50.0%
7.0% 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0
7.5% 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.6 11.1
8.0% 10.0 10.6 11.3 11.9 12.5
8.5% 11.4 12.1 12.9 13.6 14.3
9.0% 13.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.7
9.5% 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0
10.0% 20.0 21.3 22.5 23.8 25.0
10.5% 26.7 28.3 30.0 31.7 33.3
D1 algebra P0 D1 / E1 p 0.45
P0 12.9
rg E1 r g r g 0.12 0.085
The Method of Comparables
Method of
comparables
Cross‐
Time series
sectional
analysis
analysis
Comparison to Comparison to
past or benchmark or
average values peer group
Price‐to‐Sales Ratio Data for Major Automobile
Manufacturers
Company P/S
General Motors 0.01
Ford Motor 0.14
Daimler 0.27
Nissan Motor 0.32
Honda Motor 0.49
Toyota Motor 0.66
P/E Data for Canon
Sources: EPS and P/E data are from Canon’s website: www.canon.com. P/E is
based on share price data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Major Categories of Equity Valuation Models
Market value
Market Market value Cash and Enterprise
of preferred
capitalization of debt equivalents value
stock
Enterprise
EBITDA EV/EBITDA
value (EV)
EV/Operating Income Data for Nine
Major Mining Companies
Operating
Ticker EV Income (OI)
Company Symbol (C$ millions) (C$ millions) EV/OI
BHP Billiton BHP 197,112.00 9,794.00 20.1
Rio Tinto RIO 65,049.60 7,905.00 8.2
Anglo American AAL 48,927.30 6,208.00 7.9
Barrick Gold ABX 35,288.00 1,779.00 19.8
Goldcorp G 28,278.00 616.66 45.9
Newmont Mining NEM 22,040.80 1,385.00 15.9
AngloGold Ashanti AU 19,918.30 –362.00 –55.0
Alcoa AA 17,570.40 4,166.00 4.2
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold FCX 11,168.40 2,868.75 3.9
Source: www.miningnerds.com
Asset‐Based Valuation
Book value of assets and liabilities
Estimation process or processes
Market value of assets and liabilities
Market value of equity = market value of
assets – market value of liabilities
Asset‐Based Valuations: Potential
Problems
Difficulties determining market (fair)
values
Book values differ significantly from
market values
Intangible assets
Hyper‐ or rapidly rising inflation
Asset‐Based Valuation versus Discounted
Present Value Approaches
Company to Valuation Valuation
be valued approaches inputs
Airline stopped the
Present value dividend and is
models losing money and
Airline in financial “burning” cash
distress Routes, flight
Asset‐based agreements,
valuation equipment, and
aircraft have value
Advantages and Disadvantages
• Theoretically appealing and provide a
Present direct computation of intrinsic value
• Input uncertainty can lead to poor
value models estimates of value
• Ratios are easy to compute and
Multiplier analysis is easily understood
• Problems with selecting a peer group
models or “comps”
• Consistent with the notion that a
Asset‐based business is worth the sum of its parts
• Difficulties determining market value
valuation and the value of intangible assets
Summary
• Overvalued, fairly valued, or undervalued securities
• Major categories of equity valuation models
• Present value models: dividend discount models and free cash
flow models
• Multiplier models: price ratios and enterprise value ratios
• Asset‐based valuation
• Advantages and disadvantages of equity valuation models
• Do Problems Chapter 8: 4, 5, 6, 16, 17, & 28 [discuss 11/4/2018]
• Do Problems Chapter 9: 10, 12, 14, 23, 24, & 25[discuss 11/4/18]
• Do Mini Case: West Coast Yachts (p. 309) [Due 11/4/18]