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\begin{equation}
%
% paper title
% can use linebreaks \\ within to get better formatting as desired
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\title{Breakdown Prediction of Oil Insulation}

% author names and affiliations

% use a multiple column layout for up to three different
% affiliations
\author{\IEEEauthorblockN{Michael Shell}
\IEEEauthorblockA{School of Electrical and\\Computer Engineering\\
Georgia Institute of Technology\\
Atlanta, Georgia 30332--0250\\
Email: http://www.michaelshell.org/contact.html}
\and
\IEEEauthorblockN{Homer Simpson}
\IEEEauthorblockA{Twentieth Century Fox\\
Springfield, USA\\
Email: homer@thesimpsons.com}
}

% conference papers do not typically use \thanks and this command

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% for over three affiliations, or if they all won't fit within the width
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%
%\author{\IEEEauthorblockN{Michael Shell\IEEEauthorrefmark{1},
%Homer Simpson\IEEEauthorrefmark{2},
%James Kirk\IEEEauthorrefmark{3},
%Montgomery Scott\IEEEauthorrefmark{3} and
%Eldon Tyrell\IEEEauthorrefmark{4}}
%\IEEEauthorblockA{\IEEEauthorrefmark{1}School of Electrical and Computer
Engineering\\
%Georgia Institute of Technology,
%Atlanta, Georgia 30332--0250\\ Email: see
http://www.michaelshell.org/contact.html}
%\IEEEauthorblockA{\IEEEauthorrefmark{2}Twentieth Century Fox, Springfield, USA\\
%Email: homer@thesimpsons.com}
%\IEEEauthorblockA{\IEEEauthorrefmark{3}Starfleet Academy, San Francisco,
California 96678-2391\\
%Telephone: (800) 555--1212, Fax: (888) 555--1212}
%\IEEEauthorblockA{\IEEEauthorrefmark{4}Tyrell Inc., 123 Replicant Street, Los
Angeles, California 90210--4321}}

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% \begin{center} \bfseries EDICS Category: 3-BBND \end{center}
% \fi\begin{abstract}
\begin{abstract}
Investigate the modelling and analysis of the electric field distribution in oil
gaps, stressed by the breakdown voltages, under varying gap distance and rate of
voltage rise, with finite element method. Breakdown voltage of the oil gap is of
vital importance for the design of the transformer insulation in high-voltage. In
this report, a prediction method for the breakdown voltages of typical oil gaps
based on the dynamic electric field features and support vector machine (SVM) is
discussed. According to the finite element calculation results of dynamic electric
field distribution, the electric field values in the whole region, discharge
channel and surface of the electrode were extracted and post-processed, which
constituted the electric field features characterizing the gap structure. Then, the
breakdown voltage prediction model of the oil gap was established by using electric
field features as the input parameters to SVM, and whether the oil gap breakdown
would happen as the output parameters of SVM, which changing the regression problem
to a binary classification problem. This model was applied to predict the
dielectric strength of oil gaps of parallel plate electrodes with varying distance
and varying rate of voltage rise.
\end{abstract}
%
% For peerreview papers, this IEEEtran command inserts a page break and
% creates the second title. It will be ignored for other modes.
\IEEEpeerreviewmaketitle

\section{Introduction}
The study of the field strength distribution in electric fields, and especially in
quasi-uniformly electric fields like the fields in parallel plate electrodes, is of
great importance in high voltages. One of the most determinant factors of the
dielectric strength of the insulating materials is the field strength distribution
inside the mass of the materials, when stressed by high voltages.

The experimental measurement of the field strength in small oil gaps stressed by
high voltages is a very difficult process and not quite accurate. The analysis of
the proper models of the air gap electric fields using Laplace and Poisson
equations for general 2 or 3-dimensional fields with a theoretical mathematical way
is more accurate but in some cases it leads to difficulties and is time consuming.
The most convenient way¬¬¬ is to use numerical procedures.

This report investigates the modelling and analysis of the dynamic electric field
distribution in oil gaps, stressed by the breakdown voltages, under flat plate
electrode with finite element method.

% An example of a floating figure using the graphicx package.

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%\caption{Simulation Results.}
%\label{fig_sim}
%\end{figure}

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%\label{fig_sim}
%\end{figure*}
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%\hline
%One & Two\\
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\section{Methodology}
The methodology has been divided into two sections namely, experiential methodology
and prediction methodology.

\subsection{Experimental Methodology}

The breakdown of soybean oil was tested in a standard dielectric oil tester (BAUR
DPA 75 C). Two standard-compliant parallel plate circular test electrodes shape
under the standard ASTM D 877. The parallel plate circular electrode shape was
selected to study the breakdown phenomenon under quasi-uniform electric field. A
test voltage rise for e.g. 5 kV/sec was applied and continuously increased to one
of the electrode while keeping the other electrode grounded until the breakdown
occurs. The experiment was performed under two conditions. Firstly by varying the
gap distance between the electrodes at constant rate of voltage rise. Secondly, by
varying the rate of voltage rise between the electrodes at constant gap distance.
After filling the test cell with the test oil, a hold time of 3 minutes is given
until the start of the first breakdown test with continuous stirring. Between
consecutive breakdowns there is a pause time of 5 minutes with continuous stirring.
The mentioned parameters were maintained constant throughout the breakdown test
experiment. Ten measurements were taken for each mentioned combination of distance
and rate of voltage rise as given in Table 1 and the average breakdown RMS voltage
was measured.

\subsection{Predction Methodology}

The prediction method is based on the dynamic electric field features and SVM. The
experimental data is divided into training and test sample. The Date in bold
italics in Table 2 and Table 3 were chosen as the training samples, whereas the
rest were test samples for the respective oil test condition .The training samples
are utilized to train the SVM model, while the test samples confirm the accuracy of
the prediction model.

Breakdown voltage $U_{b}$ of the oil gap is selected for a particular gap and
voltage rise from the training Data set. The selected voltage at a value 90 \% of
$U_{b}$, named $U_{b}^-$ is unable to cause breakdown is labelled as -1, whereas
the value of 110 \% of $U_{b}$, named $U_{b}^+$ is able to cause breakdown is
labelled as +1. Hence, the regression problem is converted to a two class
classification problem. The electrode geometry is constructed in COMSOL
Multiphysics (CMP) and time dependent boundary conditions are applied to the high
voltage electrode. The simulation was run till time $t_{o}^+$ in equation (4)

\begin{equation}
t_{b}^+ = U_{b}^+ / RR
\end{equation}

CMP determines for the electric field distribution of the gap by finite element
method (FEM) and the corresponding dynamic Electric field features are extracted
after simulation for a step time of 0.1 second. The training samples are formed by
post processing the Electric field features by normalization and dimension
reduction, and the tuning parameters of the SVM model C and γ were found by error
and trial. To test the generalizability of the SVM the test electric field features
corresponding to gap distance and voltage rise were given as an input to the SVM
model, and the output SVM labels were compared with the original test labels; if
they are identical then the SVM has successfully classified the test data and gives
good generalizability. Calculation of Breakdown voltage could be achieved by
applying an initial voltage $U_{o}$, if the SVM prediction model outputs -1, then
applied voltage is set as $U$=$U_{o}$+$dU$, where $dU$=($voltage$ $rise$$\times$
$simulation$ $step$ $time$). The SVM will have different prediction model for oil
test condition one and oil test condition two. The flowchart of the prediction
model is given in Fig. 1.

\begin{figure}[!t]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=9cm,height=8cm]{Fig1.pdf}
\caption{Flowchart of prediction model.}
\label{fig_sim}
\end{figure}

\subsubsection{Set of Electric Field Features}

The electric field features can also be defined by physical quantities and
dimensions. They can be divided into the following five groups:
\begin{enumerate}
\item Electric field strength, $L^{2}$$M$$T^{-3}$$I^{-1}$
\item Electric field energy, $L^{2}$$M$$T^{-2}$
\item Energy density, $L^{-1}$$M$$T^{-2}$
\item Superficial area, $L^{2}$
\item Scale paramerer, dimensionless
\end{enumerate}

\begin{table}[h]
\begin{center}
\caption{Set of electric field features.}
\label{tab:table1}
\begin{tabular}{|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{1cm}|
>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{6.0cm}|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{0.3cm}|}
\hline
\textbf{Spacial location} & \textbf{Electric Field Features} &
\textbf{No.}\\
\hline
Whole Area & $E_{mw}$; $E_{aw}$; $E_{dw}$; $W_{w}$; $W_{ew}$;
$V_{r90w}$; $V_{r75w}$; $V_{r50w}$; $V_{r25w}$; $W_{r90w}$; $W_{r75w}$; $W_{r50w}$;
$W_{r25w}$ & 13\\
\hline
Discharge Area & $E_{md}$; $E_{ad}$; $E_{dd}$; $W_{d}$; $W_{ed};$
$V_{r90d}$; $V_{r75d}$; $V_{r50d}$; $W_{r90d}$; $W_{r75d}$; $W_{r50d}$ & 11\\
\hline
Electrode Surface & $E_{ms}$; $S_{90}$; $S_{75}$; $S_{50}$;
$S_{25}$; $S_{r90}$; $S_{r75}$; $S_{r50}$; $S_{r25}$ & 9\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\end{table}

The Electric field features are defined as follows:

\begin{enumerate}
\item Maximum electric filed strength: $E_{m}$, including $E_{mw}$, $E_{dw}$
and $E_{ms}$.
\begin{equation}
E_{m} = max E_{i} (i=1,2,3,..,n)
\end{equation}
$E_{i}$ is the electric field strength of the $i$th volume$/$area element, $n$ is
the amount of the volume$/$area elements.
\item Average electric field strength: $E_{a}$, including $E_{aw}$ and
$E_{ad}$.
\begin{equation}
E_{a} = \sum_{i=1}^{n}\frac{E_{i}}{n}
\end{equation}

\item Distortion factor of the electric field: $E_{d}$, including $E_{dw}$

and $E_{dd}$.
\begin{equation}
E_{d} = \frac{E_{m}-E_{a}}{E_{a}}
\end{equation}
\item Total electric field energy: $W$, including $W_{w}$ and $W_{d}$.
\begin{equation}
W = \sum_{i=1}^{n}W_{i}= \sum_{i=1}^{n}\frac{1}
{2}\varepsilon_{o}E_{i}^2V_{i}
\end{equation}
$\varepsilon_{o}$ is the permittivity of vacuum. $W_{i}$ and $V_{i}$
are respectively the energy and volume of the $i$th volume element.
\item Total volume: $V$
\begin{equation}
V = \sum_{i=1}^{n}V_{i}
\end{equation}

\item Energy density: $W_{e}$, including $W_{ew}$ and $W_{ed}$.

\begin{equation}
W_{e} =\frac{W}{V}
\end{equation}
\item Volume ratio of the region which exceeds $x$$\%$ of the
maximum electric field strength: $V_{rx}$, including $V_{r90w}$, $V_{r75w}$,
$V_{r50w}$, $V_{r25w}$, $V_{r90d}$, $V_{r75w}$, and $V_{r50d}$.
\begin{equation}
V_{rx} = \sum_{xi=1}^{xn}\frac{V_{xi}}{V}
\end{equation}
$V_{xi}$ is the volume of the ith volume element which exceeds $x\%$ of the maximum
electric field strength, and $x_{n}$ is the amount of those volume elements. In
this paper, $x\%$ includes $90\%,75\%, 50\%, 25\%$.
\item Energy ratio of the region which exceeds x% of the
maximum electric field strength: Wrx, including $W_{r90w}$, $W_{r75w}$,
$W_{r50w}$, $W_{r25w}$, $W_{r90d}$, $W_{r75w}$, and $W_{r50d}$.
\begin{equation}
W_{rx} = \sum_{xi=1}^{xn}\frac{W_{xi}}{W}
\end{equation}
$W_{xi}$ is the energy of the $i$th volume element which exceeds $x\%$ of the
maximum electric field strength.
\item The total superficial area of the high voltage electrode surface: $S$.
\begin{equation}
S = \sum_{i=1}^{n}{S_{i}}
\end{equation}
$S_{i}$ is the area of the $i$th area element, and $n$ is the amount of the
area elements.
\item The area of the region on the surface of the high voltage electrode
which exceeds $x\%$ of the maximum electric field strength: $S_{x}$, including
$S_{90}$, $S_{75}$, $S_{50}$, and $S_{25}$.
\begin{equation}
S_{x} = \sum_{xj=1}^{xm}{S_{xj}}
\end{equation}
 $S_{xj}$ is the area of the $j$th area element which exceeds $x\%$ of the
maximum electric field strength, and $x_{m}$ is the amount of those area
elements. In this paper, $x\%$ includes 90 $\%$, 75 $\%$, 50 $\%$, 25 $\%$.
\item Area ratio of the region on the surface of the high voltage electrode
which exceeds $x\%$ of the maximum electric field strength: $S_{rx}$, including
$S_{r90}$, $S_{r75}$, $S_{r50}$, and $S_{r25}$.
\begin{equation}
S_{rx} =\frac{S_{x}}{S}
\end{equation}
\end{enumerate}

\subsubsection{Feature Dimension Reduction Method}

One of the challenges of dealing with features is that the units of different co-
ordinates may vary widely, all the features may not be of similar units which may
bias the learning process of SVM, and thus a common method to deal with such
problem is to normalize the data [10]. Equation (24) is used for normalization.

\begin{equation}
x^\prime_{i} = \frac{x_{i}-x_{min}}{x_{max}-x_{min}} + 1
\end{equation}
$x^\prime_{i}$ is the normalized value of a certain feature $x_{i}$, $x_{min}
$ and $x_{max}$ are the minimum and maximum values of $x_{i}$. Hence, the features
have been normalized from the interval [$x_{min}$, $x_{max}$] to [1, 2]. Let this
matrix be called $C$.

Feature dimension reduction is usually a pre-processing step in machine

learning; it is to transform the high dimensional space to a low dimensional space
while retaining most of the information in the original data set. This is usually
done to overcome the ``curse of dimensionality'' faced in large dimension spaces.
The term was first introduced by Bellman (1961) to combat optimization over many
dimensions, where the computational effort was observe to grow exponentially as
dimensions increase. In statistics, the phrase represents the scarcity of data in
multiple dimensions [11], thus we would require large samples if we were to not use
dimension reduction.

Principal component analysis (PCA) is used in this report for feature

dimension reduction. The goal is to avoid losing prematurely possible nonlinear
information in the data, with the choice of reduced dimension (k) is 1 $\leq$ $k$
$\leq$ 10 is expected in practice. To calculate the PCA first for out training data
set $C$ with size of $N$ and $d$ number of features, first we calculate the sample
mean $m_{j}$ of $j$th feature as equation (25).

\begin{equation}
m_{j} = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N}{C(i,j)}
\end{equation}
Second, we calculate the zero mean matrix $B$ in equation (26).
\begin{equation}
B = C-em^T
\end{equation}
Here $e$ represents an $N\times1$ vector of all ones.

Third, the $d \times d$ covariance matrix $Z$ is generated by equation (27).

\begin{equation}
Z = B^TB
\end{equation}
Fourth, calculate the eigen values $X$ and eigen vectors $Y$ of $Z$ and diagonalize
$Z$ matrix by equation (28).

\begin{equation}
D = Y^{-1}ZY
\end{equation}

Fifth, arrange $X$ and $Y$, such that the eigen values are arranged in a descending
order, with their corresponding eigen values given by equation (29).
\begin{equation}
D (1,1) \geq D (2,2) \geq ... \geq D(d,d)
\end{equation}

Sixth, calculate the cumulative variance for each eigenvector by equation (30).
\begin{equation}
G(k) = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{k}{D(i,i)}}{\sum_{i=1}^{d}{D(i,i)}}
\end{equation}
Thus vectors can be formed as shown in equation (31).
\begin{equation}
G = [G(1) G(2) G(3)...G(d)]
\end{equation}

The first $k$th eigen vectors till $G(k)$ $\geq$ 0.95 are chosen as chosen and the
final training sample data is dimensionally reduced and is given by equation (32)
to train the SVM.

\begin{equation}
Train Sample = B\times [G(1) G(2) G(3)...G(k)]
\end{equation}
In equation (32), the first dimension is called the first principal
component; the second dimension is called the second principal component and so on.
\subsubsection{SVM Theory}
There is a multidimensional non-linear relationship between the electric field
features, the oil gap breakdown voltage and the sample data is limited. SVM is a
machine learning algorithm developed from the optimal hyperplane in linearly
separable cases. SVM has good adaptability in the case of small samples [6]. The
statistical learning in build commands in MATLAB is used in this report to solve
the classification problem. The objective function of the optimization problem is
given by equation (2).

\begin{equation}
\label{main_eq}
%\begin{subequations}
%\begin{aligned}%{rll}
\left.\begin{array}{rll}
\textrm{optimize:}\quad & \underbrace{min}_{\text{\vec{w},b,\zeta}}=\frac{1}
{2}||\vec{w}||^2+C\sum_{i=1}^{N}\zeta_{i}, & \mallabel{a}\\
\textrm{subject to:}\quad & y_{i}(\vec{w}.\vec{x_{i}}-b) \geq 1-\zeta_{i}, \forall
i& \mallabel{b}\\
& where \; \zeta_{i} \geq0, & \mallabel{c}\\
\end{array}\right\}
%\end{align}
%\end{subequations}
\end{equation}

Where $\vec{w}$ is called the weight vector, $b$ is called the bias, is the class
label corresponding to feature vector $x_{i}$, $\zeta_{i}$ are slack variables that
permit margin failure and $C$ is a parameter which trades off wide margin with a
small number of margin failures. When this optimization problem is transformed into
the dual form, it simply changes the constraint optimization into a box constraint
given by equation (4).
\begin{equation}
\label{main_eq}

\left.\begin{array}{rlr}
\textrm{min:}\quad & \psi(\alpha) &\;\;\qquad \mallabel{a}\\
\psi(\alpha)= & X-Y & \mallabel{b}\\

X=&\frac{1}{2}\sum\limits_{i=1}^{i=N}\sum\limits_{j=1}^{j=N}y_{i}y_{j}
(\vec{x_{i}}.\vec{x_{j}})\alpha_{i}\alpha_{j} & \mallabel{c}\\

Y=\quad& \sum\limits_{i=1}^{i=N}\alpha_{i}, & \mallabel{d}\\

\textrm{Such that:}\quad& 0 \leq \alpha_{i} \leq C, \forall{i}, & \mallabel{e}\\

\textrm{given:}\quad& \sum\limits_{i=1}^{N}\alpha_{i}y_{i}=0, & \mallabel{f}\\

\end{array}\right\}
%\end{align}
%\end{subequations}
\end{equation}

Where $\alpha_{i}$ is the lagrangian multiplier, it is introduced when equation (2)

is transformed into its dual form to equation (3). The variable $\zeta_{i}$ does
not appear in the dual formulation at all. Moreover the value of $\vec{w}$ is not
needed explicitly in the dual form. The decision rule is given by equation (4),
where is the vector whose class label is decided by its sign, +1 means a positive
class label and -1 means a negative class label.

\begin{equation}
s=sgn{\sum\limits_{i=1}^{i=N}\alpha_{i}y_{i}(\vec{x}.\vec{x_{i}})}
\end{equation}

SVMs can be further generalized to non-linear classifiers. The above equation (4)
and (5) are valid for linear separable case, however most of the real world
problems are non-linear in nature. Therefore a kernel function is introduced which
will map the non-separable from the original space into a feature space which will
be linearly separable in the feature space. The dual form equation (4) and the
decision rule equation (5) are modified as shown in equation (6) and (7).

\begin{equation}
\label{main_eq}

\left.\begin{array}{rlr}
\textrm{min:}\quad & \psi(\alpha) &\;\;\quad \mallabel{a}\\
\psi(\alpha)= & X-Y & \mallabel{b}\\

X=&\frac{1}
{2}\sum\limits_{i=1}^{i=N}\sum\limits_{j=1}^{j=N}y_{i}y_{j}K(\vec{x_{i}}.\vec{x_{j}
})\alpha_{i}\alpha_{j} & \mallabel{c}\\

Y=\quad& \sum\limits_{i=1}^{i=N}\alpha_{i}, & \mallabel{d}\\

\textrm{Such that:}\quad& 0 \leq \alpha_{i} \leq C, \forall{i}, & \mallabel{e}\\

\textrm{given:}\quad& \sum\limits_{i=1}^{N}\alpha_{i}y_{i}=0, & \mallabel{f}\\

\end{array}\right\}
%\end{align}
%\end{subequations}
\end{equation}

\begin{equation}
s=sgn{\sum\limits_{i=1}^{i=N}\alpha_{i}y_{i}K(\vec{x}.\vec{x_{i}})}
\end{equation}

\paragraph{Kernel Function}
The limited computational power of linear learning machines was highlighted in the
1960s by Minsky and Papert. In general, complex real-world applications require
more expensive hypothesis spaces than linear functions [7]. Kernel representations
offer an alternative solution by projecting the data into a higher dimension space
where it is linearly separable. The use of linear machine in the dual
representation makes it possible to perform this step implicitly. Thus kernel would
apply a fixed non-linear mapping of the data into a feature space, where it is
linearly separable as shown in fig. 1.

The kernel function chosen is radial basis function (RBF) given in equation (7),
where $\gamma$ is a positive constant, $x_{i}$ is the training observation and
$x_{j}$ be the test observation. If the test observation is far from the training
observation, then the square of its distance will be large, so $K(x_{i}$,$x_{j})$
will be small, then that respective training observation will have no role in
determining the class of the test observation. In other words, training observation
that are far from the test observation will essentially play no role in predicting
class labels from the test observation; this means that the radial basis kernel has
a very local behavior in the sense that only nearby training observations have an
effect on the class labels of a test observation.

\begin{equation}
K(x_{i},x_{j})=exp(-\gamma||x_{i}-x_{j}||^2)
\end{equation}

The advantage of using kernel which rather than simply enlarging the feature space
using functions of the original features is computation, and it amounts to the fact
that using kernels, one need only compute $K(x_{i},x_{j})$ for all $n(n-1)/2$
distinct pairs. This can be done explicitly without working in the enlarged feature
space. This is important because in many applications of SVMs, the enlarged feature
space is so large that computations are intractable. For the RBF kernel, the
feature space is implicit and infinite-dimension, so we could never do the
computation there [8].

\paragraph{SVM Parameter $C$ and gamma}

The generalization of SVM depends on two parameters $C$ and $gamma$, $C$ parameter
gives a tradeoff between the margin and number of misclassification, whereas gamma
describes the reach of training samples to predict the class of test samples. They
are discussed in detail in the following section.

If the value of slack variables $\zeta_{i}=0$, then $i$th observation is on the

correct side of the margin, $0 \leq \zeta_{i} \leq1$ if then $i$th observation is
on the wrong side of the margin and we say $i$th observation has violated the
margin, if then it is on the wrong side of the hyperplane. According to equation
(3), $C$ bounds the sum of $\zeta_{i}$ the , so it determines the number and
severity of the violations. Therefore $C$ is a tradeoff parameter between margin
and number of misclassification. If $C=0$ then there is no budget for violations to
the margin, as C increases the margin will widen thus become more tolerant to
margin violations. Fig. 2a and fig. 2b shows the effect of C parameter on margin.
The value is gamma parameter is given by equation (8). With large $\sigma^2$, the
RBF kernel would tend to vary smoothly. With small the RBF kernel could vary
abruptly. So a small gamma would imply that the influence of a support vector on
determining the class of a test observation is more even if the distance between
them is large. If gamma is large, then variation is small implying the support
vector does not have wide-spread influence. Fig. 3 shows the effect of gamma on RBF
kernel.

\begin{equation}
\gamma=\frac{1}{2\sigma^2}
\end{equation}

\subsection{Error Analysis}

\subsubsection{Error Analysis}
Error analysis is part of the essential procedures of the breakdown
voltage prediction of air gaps. By error analysis, the merits of the prediction
model can be evaluated scientifically so as to guide the reasonable application of
the model. Four error indexes as follows are applied in this paper to examine the
error of the prediction results.

\begin{enumerate}
\item Sum of squared error (SSE).
\begin{equation}
e_{SSE} = \sum_{i=1}^{N}{(A_{i}-
P_{i})^2}
\end{equation}
\item Mean square error (MSE).
\begin{equation}
e_{MSE} =\frac{1}{N}
\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{N}{(A_{i}-P_{i})^2}}
\end{equation}

\item Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

\begin{equation}
e_{MAPE} =\frac{1}{N} \sum_{i=1}^{N}\frac{|A_{i}-P_{i}|}{A_{i}}
\end{equation}

\item Mean square percentage error (MSPE)

\begin{equation}
e_{MSPE} =\frac{1}{N} \sum_{i=1}^{N}\sqrt{{\frac{(A_{i}-P_{i})^2}{A_{i}}}}
\end{equation}
\end{enumerate}

\section{Result and Discussion}

\subsection{Experimental Results}

The data for varying electrode gap is shown in Table XX and Table YY, due to the
stochastic behavior of breakdown mechanism, Weibull distribution is used to provide
the scale parameter for the breakdown process.
% \usepackage{multirow}

% \usepackage{multirow}

\documentclass{article}
\usepackage{array,multirow,graphicx}
\begin{document}

\begin{table}[!t]
\begin{center}
\caption{Breakdown voltage for ramp rate at 5
kV/sec.}
\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}
\hline
\multirow{2}{*}{\textbf{S. No. }} & \multirow{2}{*}{} &
\multicolumn{5}{c|}{\textbf{Ramp Rate 5 kV/sec}} \\
\cline{3-7}
& \multicolumn{1}{c|}{} & \textbf{2.5 mm} & \textbf{3.5 mm} &
\textbf{4.5 mm} & \textbf{5.5 mm} & \textbf{6.5 mm} \\
\hline
1 & \multirow{10}{*}{\rotatebox[origin=c]{90}{\textbf{Breakdown
Voltage (kV)}}} & 25.5 & 37.7 & 48.1 & 44.5 & 53.9 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
2 & & 25.0 & 28.6 & 49.0 & 56.0 & 52.5 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
3 & & 38.1 & 40.6 & 51.2 & 39.9 & 52.0 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
4 & & 30.4 & 34.9 & 51.7 & 66.4 & 47.3 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
5 & & 28.9 & 36.7 & 51.6 & 34.7 & 64.6 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
6 & & 23.8 & 26.0 & 35.0 & 53.4 & 46.2 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
7 & & 29.4 & 35.8 & 46.3 & 46.9 & 48.9 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
8 & & 29.5 & 30.5 & 33.0 & 45.1 & 46.8 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
9 & & 28.3 & 48.7 & 34.3 & 33.2 & 49.1 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
10 & & 20.0 & 42.5 & 43.8 & 63.8 & 53.8 \\
\hline

\end{tabular}
\end{table}
\end{document}
\documentclass{article}
\usepackage{array,multirow,graphicx}
\begin{document}

\begin{table}[!t]
\begin{center}
\caption{Breakdown voltage for electrode gap at 4 mm.}
\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}
\hline
\multirow{2}{*}{\textbf{S. No. }} & \multirow{2}{*}{} &
\multicolumn{5}{c|}{\textbf{Ramp Rate 5 kV/sec}} \\
\cline{3-7}
& \multicolumn{1}{c|}{} & \textbf{1 kV/s} & \textbf{3 kV/s}
& \textbf{5 kV/s} & \textbf{7 kV/s} & \textbf{9 kV/s} \\
\hline
1 & \multirow{10}{*}{\rotatebox[origin=c]{90}
{\textbf{Breakdown Voltage (kV)}}} & 37.5 & 39.2 & 47.1 & 47.6 & 43.4 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
2 & & 21.5 & 32.5 & 41.3 & 45.4 & 46.2 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
3 & & 25.3 & 46.1 & 40.7 & 47.9 & 46.6 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
4 & & 38.3 & 36.7 & 40.1 & 37.5 & 46.6 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
5 & & 28.9 & 38.2 & 41.4 & 46.7 & 43.4 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
6 & & 39.3 & 42.1 & 44.4 & 47.8 & 44.2 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
7 & & 36.1 & 40.2 & 43.1 & 43.4 & 42.0 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
8 & & 24.3 & 43.6 & 41.8 & 40.9 & 41.5 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
9 & & 32.9 & 41.3 & 37.7 & 40.5 & 50.4 \\
\cline{3-7}
\cline{1-1}
10 & & 36.9 & 40.0 & 40.4 & 49.1 & 46.8 \\
\hline

\end{tabular}
\end{table}
\end{document}

\subsection{Breakdown Analysis using Weibull Distribution}

The experimental results for oil test condition one portrayed as the gap distance
with constant voltage rise there is an increase in the breakdown. The oil test
condition two results showed, for increasing voltage rise and constant distance the
breakdown voltage also portrayed an increasing trend, but the increase is more
prominent initially but as rate of voltage rise is increases it tends to achieve a
constant value. Moreover, with time to breakdown, in oil test condition one the
time to breakdown increases as gap distance is increasing, where as in oil test
condition two the time to breakdown decreases sharply with increasing rate of
voltage rise. The above results could be explained by a two-parameter Weibull
distribution as shown in Figure 10 and 11. Tab X and Y shows the weibull scale and
shape parameters for both experiments.

\begin{table}[!t]
\begin{center}
\caption{Weibull parameters for electrode gao of 4 mm.}
\label{tab:table1}
\begin{tabular}{|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|
>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|}
\hline
\textbf{Ramp Rate (kV/s)} & \textbf{Scale Parameter (kV)} &
\textbf{Shape Parameter}\\
\hline
1 & 35.1558 & 4.4384\\
\hline
3 & 41.8107 & 10.1795\\
\hline
5 & 43.0897 & 15.4425\\
\hline
7 & 46.6006 & 10.8403\\
\hline
9 & 47.6363 & 15.8739\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[!t]
\begin{center}
\caption{Weibull parameters for ramp rate of 5 kV/sec.}
\label{tab:table1}
\begin{tabular}{|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|
>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|}
\hline
\textbf{Electrode Gap (mm)} & \textbf{Scale Parameter (kV)} &
\textbf{Shape Parameter}\\
\hline
2.5 & 30.0751 & 5.5813\\
\hline
3.5 & 39.1742 & 5.2175\\
\hline
4.5 & 48.1195 & 5.2388\\
\hline
5.5 & 53.1825 & 4.1453\\
\hline
6.5 & 54.2403 & 8.8027\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\begin{figure}[!t]
\centering
 \includegraphics[width=8cm,height=6cm]{Weibull_2.pdf}
\caption{Weibull plot for varying electrode gap at 5 kV/s.}
\label{fig_sim}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!t]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=8cm,height=6cm]{Weibull_ramp_2.pdf}
\caption{Weibull plot for varying ramp rate at 4 mm gap.}
\label{fig_sim}
\end{figure}

\begin{table}[!t]
\begin{center}
\caption{Weibull parameters for electrode gap of 4 mm.}
\label{tab:table1}
\begin{tabular}{|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|
>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|}
\hline
\textbf{Ramp Rate (kV/sec)} & \textbf{Scale Parameter (kV)} &
\textbf{Shape Parameter}\\
\hline
1.0 & 35.1558 & 4.4384\\
\hline
3.0 & 41.8107 & 10.1795\\
\hline
5.0 & 43.0897 & 15.4425\\
\hline
7.0 & 46.6006 & 10.8403\\
\hline
9.0 & 47.6363 & 15.8739\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\subsection{SVM prediction}

\begin{figure}[!t]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=8cm,height=6cm]{SVM_Gap.pdf}
\caption{Weibull plot for varying ramp rate at 4 mm gap.}
\label{fig_sim}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!t]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=8cm,height=6cm]{SVM_Ramp.pdf}
\caption{Weibull plot for varying ramp rate at 4 mm gap.}
\label{fig_sim}
\end{figure}

The SVM prediction model was trained with features of 3.5 mm and 5.5 mm and tested
for 2.5 mm, 4.5 mm and 6.5 mm for varying electrode gap. Similarly model was
trained with features of 1 kV/sec and 7 kV/sec and tested for 3 kV/sec, 5 kV/sec
and 9 kV/sec for varying ramp rate , and the output labels of the test data were
compared to the original test data, the tuning parameters of SVM were found by
trial and error. Table T and K shows the predicted values along with error
calculation. the comparison of experimental values and predicted values is shown in
Fig. d and fig. j.

\begin{table}[!t]
\begin{center}
\caption{Weibull parameters for ramp rate of 5 kV/sec.}
\label{tab:table1}
\begin{tabular}{|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|
>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|
>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|>{\centering\arraybackslash}m{2.0cm}|}
\hline
\textbf{Gap (mm)} & \textbf{Exp. (kV)} & \textbf{Predicted (kV)}
& \textbf{MAPE} & \textbf{SSE}\\
\hline
2.5 & 30.0 & 30.5 & 5.5813 & 5.5813 \\
\hline
5.5 & 48.0 & 46.5 & 5.5813 & 5.5813\\
\hline
6.5 & 54.5 & 58.5 & 5.5813 & 5.5813\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\section{Conclusion}
SVM sucessfully predicted breakdown voltages for varying electrode gap and varying
ramp rate based on the electric field features of the oil insulation.
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\bibitem{IEEEhowto:kopka}
H.~Kopka and P.~W. Daly, \emph{A Guide to \LaTeX}, 3rd~ed.\hskip 1em plus
0.5em minus 0.4em\relax Harlow, England: Addison-Wesley, 1999.

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