Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
H
Hanoi
i Quarterly
Q t l Report
R t Q4/2011
Presented by:
Research & Consulting Dept.,
AGENDA
• ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
1
• INFRASTRUCTURE
2
• LANDED HOUSE
4
• OFFICE
5
• RETAIL
6
• SERVICED APARTMENTS
7
• HOTEL
8
2 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
HIGHLIGHTS
• GDP of 2011 increased by 5.89% y-o-y
• Manufacturing- Construction: increased by 5.53%
• Service: increased by 6.99%
• Agro-Forestry-Fishery: increased by 4%
• Total retail sales of g
goods and service rose by y 24.2%,, reached
VND2,004 trillion (a rise of 4.7% if excluding price increase)
• Trade: Exports reached US$96.3 billion- increased by 33.3%.
Imports reached US$105.8 billion. Trade deficit is equivalent
to 9.9% of export turnover
• CPI in Dec. 2011 increased by 18.13% y-o-y. Annual average
CPI increased by 18.58% y-o-y.
• Total social investment in 2011 was estimated at VND878 trillion -
FDI in Real Estate (US$ million) an increase of 5.7% and equivalent to 34.6% of GDP
0.4
25,000 • Total FDI reached US$14.7 billion, equal to 74% of FDI in 2010
20,000
0.3 • Implemented FDI =US$11 billion (equal to 2010 figure)
15,000
0.2 • Industries and Manufacturing: 76.4% (2010-54.1%)
10,000
01
0.1 • Real Estate: 5 8% (2010-34
5.8% (2010 34.3%)
3%)
5,000
0.0 0 • FDI in Real Estate reached the lowest level in recent years
2009 20102010 20112011
2008 2009 • Total number of International arrivals to Vietnam was 6,014,000-
an increase by 19
19.1%
1% compared to 20102010.
3 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
4 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE
• New road: 1km-road
1km road connects Do
Duc Duc Road and Me Tri with
some sections are 50m wide.
• Overpasses proposed:
• Lang Ha -Thai Ha
• Chua Boc -Thai Ha
Developer: Hanoi Department of
Transportation
5 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE
• Noi Bai Airport T2 Station –
Broke ground on 4 Dec 2011
6 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
New Launch Supply (Units)
NEW LAUNCH SUPPLY
NEW
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Whole year
2011: 25,000 units
25,000
20,000
− Sharp from 2009 & 2010
15,000 − Excl.
Excl mega projects (Times City & Royal City): 17
17,000
000 units
units, same
10,000 as 2009 & 2010
5,000 − Q4/2011: 4,500 units, small ~ Q1 & Q2
0 Historically,
Historically Q4 = biggest launch supply
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2011: market slowdown => developers adjust down supply
Q4/2011 New Launch Supply towards year-end
Luxury
29%
High-end
44%
NEW LAUNCH PRICE
Mid d
Mid-end
49%
Primary Market:
Low-end
− Trending towards more affordable options: 45% of newly-launched
units priced below $1,250 psm
− Popular: promotions (furniture package, selective discount,
Q4/2011 Launch Price (USD psm) rewards for early payment)
Below $1,000 8%
− Rare: mass discount by 20% (VND 21.5 mil -> 17.5 mil; VND31-32
25% mil ->
> 25 mil)
mil).
$1,000-$1,250
$1,250-$1,500 47%
20%
Above $1,500
7 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
High-end Under
-3.0%
3 0% -4.0%
4 0% 20 0%
20.0% 4 0%
-4.0% -7.0%
7 0% 13 0%
13.0%
Construction
Mid-end -3.5% -4.0% 42.5%
Low-end -3.0%
3 0% -2.5%
2 5% 76 0%
76.0%
FINANCING
Surveyed through a small sample of banks Reasons:
The situation is much worse in Q4 than Q1 − Earnings from independent businesses, NOT
salary, is the major source of loan repayment
Q4/2011 Q1/2011 => volatile and subject
j to economic condition
Overdue Mortgages − Tightened monetary policy => difficult to
~10% ~5% access funds for refinancing or loan roll-over
(safe ratio is 3%)
− Real
ea es
estate
a e market
a e sslowdown
o do => u
unable
ab e to
o
turn over capital by selling off estate assets
8 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
OUTLOOK
2012 new supply: 22,000 units from 60 projects
Trading volumes will reduce, dampening projects’ sales rates
In the past: speculators actively bought & sold units => inflated trading volumes
Present:
Fewers speculators willing to participate
Those, that still intend to participate, have their capital stuck in their existing portfolio &
can’t speculate further
2012 forecasted to be a challenging year in terms of economic performance =>
condominium market continues to be affected
The market continues to trend towards Mid- and Low-end products
High-end
g & Luxuryyp
projects:
j
Opportunities are available, but ONLY for financially strong Players with committed
construction quality & visible construction progress
Selling off-plan is no longer a feasible strategy
Possible option for unsold high-end/luxury condo: converted to serviced apartments
Management fee issue & other developer-buyer disputes:
Exist in any market in its early stage of development such as HN
Would be intensified at a time like this when market favors buyers
Would be resolved as the market evolves (better legal framework, buyers and developers learn
to compromise,
p , etc.))
9 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
LANDED HOUSES
HIGHLIGHTS
Downward
D d ttrend
d iin asking
ki prices
i continued.
ti d
10 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
LANDED HOUSES
PROGRESS
Construction progress is slow in many projects, with a
p
few exceptions:
− Vincom Village handed over its first 50 units on schedule in
late October.
− Hillstate by Hyundai also handed over 62 out of 100 villas in
October.
11 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
OFFICE
T t l SSupply
Total l ((sm)) Existing Supply by Grade
New supply in Q4 2011: 143,000 sm
Grade A Grade B Grade C Grade A Grade B Grade C
Equivalent to ~15% of total market 1,200,000
supply 1,000,000
Of which,
which 113
113,450
450 sm in the West,
West 800 000
800,000
25.5% 25.8%
including Keangnam’s Landmark 72 600,000
of ~89,000 sm 400,000
200,000 48.7%
Vacancyy Rate ((%)) 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Grade A Grade B
40% Source: CBRE Vietnam
Source: CBRE Vietnam
30%
12 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
OFFICE – Dynamics
TENANTS LANDLORDS
Tenants generally don’t want to go Willing to provide heavy incentives to
through the hassle of moving out/in: attract tenants:
Major cost of fitting out is an issue, especially Free signage
in a challenging economic situation.
Relocation is a big issue to staff. Longer free rent period
CBD: 3 – 6 months (for at least a 3 year
Popular inquiries are for office space llease tterm))
of ~250 sm
The West: 8 months – 1 year (for at least
Tenants currently expect rents: a 5 year lease term)
of <US$30 ppsm pper month in the CBD Support tenant
tenant’ss fitting out cost
of <US$17 psm per month in the west Provide discounts without
changing headline rents
13 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
OFFICE
OUTLOOK
Th
The western
t area looks
l k attractive
tt ti to t tenants
t t who
h needd large
l floor
fl plates.
l t
Landlords in this area are willing to compromise and provide incentives.
Tenants would be able to acquire greater space for lower rents,
compared to the CBD.
An increasing
g number of p
projects
j with long
g term lease are offering
g for sale.
14 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
RETAIL
Large-scale retail objects have arrived on the other side of the Red River (Long Bien
District)
Overall average retail rents dropped due to additional supply in suburban area with
lower rents
rents, otherwise hardly any change
15 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
RETAIL
Total Supply (NLA sm)
NEW SUPPLY
Shopping Centre Department Store Retail Lobby
Parkson Keangnam – Cau Giay
2,000,000
0
Source: Ngo Ha Source: parkson.com.vn
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f +2014f
Savico Mega Mall – Long Bien
*Future
Future Supply GFA sm
16 Dec 2011 Source: CBRE Vietnam
43,500 sm (NLA)
85% occupancy Existing Supply by Type
Department Stores Shopping Centres Retail Lobbies
Source: tienphong.vn
4.2%
Vincom Center Long Bien – Long Bien 18.7%
24 Dec 2011
36,000 sm (NLA)
100% occupancy
77.1%
16 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
RETAIL
MAJOR TENANT MOVEMENTS
The Garden Mall Existing Supply by District (NLA sm)
Ground Floor attracted new brands
Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Hoan Kiem
Mango, Accessorize, Charles & Keith etc.
T LiLiem
Tu C Gi
Cau Giay L Bi
Long Bien
Hero World (FEC) replaces Home Center Others
(electronic) 4%
15%
Pico Mall
Food Court on the 4th and 5th floor opened 32% 11%
Snowee, Pizza Hut, KFC etc. 6%
Megastar (Cinema) will open Q1/2012
13%
Grand Plaza 19%
Shop tenants continued to withdraw
F&B has seen two new establishments Source: CBRE Vietnam
17 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
RETAIL
EXPECTED SUPPLY IN 2012
Future Supply (GFA sm)
Roughly 181,000 sm (GFA), significant projects are:
Under Construction Planning Status
Trangg Tien Plaza ((14,000
, sm))
Indochina Plaza (35,000 sm ) 800,000
Habico Tower (34,000 sm ) 600,000
Melinh Plaza in Ha Dong (45,000 sm) 400,000
Thang
Th L
Long IInt. Vill
Village (23,322
(23 322 sm)) 200,000
0
2012f 2013f +2014f
Trang Tien Plaza – Q1/Q2 Indochina Plaza HN – Q1/Q2
Source: CBRE Vietnam
800,000
600 000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2012f 2013f +2014f
18 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
RETAIL
OUTLOOK 2012
Developers delay completion date due to
Low tenant take up
Capital availability
19 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
SERVICED APARTMENTS
Total Supply (units) HIGHLIGHTS
2,500
International Operator Self-managed No new supply: serviced apartments in Keangnam’s
y its schedule to open
Landmark 72 delayed p in Q4/2011.
2,000
1,500
1,000
Average asking rents increased slightly by ~1% both on
sm basis and unit basis compared to Q3/2011
500
0
− Normal fluctuation
04 05 06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 − Landlords seemed more willing to compromise on actual rents
Source: CBRE Vietnam
Vacancy increased:
Asking Rents (US$/sm/month)
International Operator Self-managed
− Vacancy was at 11
11.42%
42% in Q4/2011 (up from 8
8.32%
32% in
Average Q3/2011) (excl. 4 recent developments of Grand Plaza, Hoa
$60 Binh Green Apts, Crowne Plaza, and Melinh Plaza Tower)
$
$40
− Vacancyy in existingg pprojects
j increased due to competition
p from
buy-to-let projects and upcoming project of Keangnam’s
$20 Landmark 72.
$0
− Marketwide (incl. 4 recently projects), vacancy was at 19.95%,
virtually the same as Q3/2011.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
20 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
SERVICED APARTMENTS
DEMAND
Inquiries dropped towards year end and holiday season
Increasing demand from individuals with lower budget
of <US$2,000
OUTLOOK
Keangnam Serviced Apartments of 378 units will open
y 2012
in early
− Heavily targeting Korean clients
Crowne Plaza West Hanoi
Serviced Apartment
− Aggressive pricing scheme in order to fill up a large number
of units
− Compete with its buy-to-let units in the two residential towers
(renting at ~US$10 psm)
Slight drop in occupancy is expected in existing projects
in the next quarter due to competition with buy-to-let
apartments and new entrants.
C
Completion
l ti off Ri
Ring R
Road
d 3 iis tto iincrease attractiveness
tt ti
of projects by the Pham Hung corridor to people based
at industrial parks.
21 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
HOTEL
Total Supply
pp y ((rooms))
5-star 4-star 3-star HIGHLIGHTS
10,000
Arrivals to Hanoi
8,000
6 000
6,000 − 2011:
0 Int’l 1.3mil
3 ((×2.6%
6% yy-o-y);
o y); Domestic
o es c 7.4mil (Ø2.3%
( 3% yy-o-y)
o y)
4,000 Int’l arrivals: tourism ×8.6%; business Ø16.8%
2,000 − Q4/11: Int’l ×34% q-o-q & ×17% y-o-y; Domestic ×27% q-o-q &
0 ×24% y-o-y
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
Outlook
− Tourism: International arrivals to Hanoi might keep increasing in
2012 but at low pace vs decreasing trend in domestic arrivals
− 2012 might be a challenging year for hotel industry (economic
downturn, business trips cut, airfare surge...)
3-star: remains stable in operation performance
4-star: lacks recognized brands thus might face hard time
5-star: some hotels will have stable operation while some
others
th might
i ht face
f difficulties
diffi lti & needd restructuring
t t i / rebranding;
b di
H t l de
Hotel d l'Opera
l'O Hanoi
H i
The latest member of Accor's
MGallery Collection
23 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
© 2012 CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the
information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make
no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known
to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CB Richard Ellis
clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CB Richard Ellis.
24 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012