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Market Insights from CBRE’s

H
Hanoi
i Quarterly
Q t l Report
R t Q4/2011
Presented by:
Research & Consulting Dept.,

CB Richard Ellis ((Vietnam)) Co.,, Ltd.


Thursday, January 5, 2012

AGENDA

• ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
1

• INFRASTRUCTURE
2

• CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE


3

• LANDED HOUSE
4

• OFFICE
5

• RETAIL
6

• SERVICED APARTMENTS
7

• HOTEL
8

2 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
„ HIGHLIGHTS
• GDP of 2011 increased by 5.89% y-o-y
• Manufacturing- Construction: increased by 5.53%
• Service: increased by 6.99%
• Agro-Forestry-Fishery: increased by 4%
• Total retail sales of g
goods and service rose by y 24.2%,, reached
VND2,004 trillion (a rise of 4.7% if excluding price increase)
• Trade: Exports reached US$96.3 billion- increased by 33.3%.
Imports reached US$105.8 billion. Trade deficit is equivalent
to 9.9% of export turnover
• CPI in Dec. 2011 increased by 18.13% y-o-y. Annual average
CPI increased by 18.58% y-o-y.
• Total social investment in 2011 was estimated at VND878 trillion -
FDI in Real Estate (US$ million) an increase of 5.7% and equivalent to 34.6% of GDP
0.4
25,000 • Total FDI reached US$14.7 billion, equal to 74% of FDI in 2010
20,000
0.3 • Implemented FDI =US$11 billion (equal to 2010 figure)
15,000
0.2 • Industries and Manufacturing: 76.4% (2010-54.1%)
10,000
01
0.1 • Real Estate: 5 8% (2010-34
5.8% (2010 34.3%)
3%)
5,000
0.0 0 • FDI in Real Estate reached the lowest level in recent years
2009 20102010 20112011
2008 2009 • Total number of International arrivals to Vietnam was 6,014,000-
an increase by 19
19.1%
1% compared to 20102010.

3 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

HANOI ECONOMIC OVERVIEW


Real GDP (y
(y-o-y
o y % change)
„ HIGHLIGHTS
12%
10%
• GDP of 2011 increased by 10.1% y-o- y.
8% • Manufacturing-Construction: increased by 10.2%
6% • Service
S i : i
increased db by 10
10.8%
8%
4%
• Agro-Forestry-Fishery: increased by 4.4%
2%
0%
• Total retail sales of goods and service rose by 22.1%
2009 2010 2011 • Trade:
T d Exports
E t reached
h d US$10
US$10.3 3 billi
billion (increased
(i d 27
27.1%
1% y-o-y))
Imports reached US$25 billion (increased 16.6% y-o-y)
CPI (% m-o-m change)
• Total outstanding loans reached VND569 trillion, increased by
4%
11 7%
11.7%
3%
• CPI in Dec rose 17.07% y-o-y, showing sign of slowdown: Jul-
2% 1.32%, Aug-1.06%, Sep-0.2%, Oct-0.13%, Nov-0.29%, Dec-
0.61%. Annual average CPI increased by 17.98%
1%
• FDI in 2011 reached US$1.5 billion, including:
0%
2009 2010 2011
• Newly registered capital: US$957 million in 283 projects
(doubled the figure of 2010)
International Arrivals (Millions)
• Additional capital: US$543 million in 61 projects
0.4
0.40 • Total number of Int’l arrivals to Hanoi was ~1.3 million, increased
0.35
0.3
0.30
2.6% y-o-y. Domestic tourists reached 7.4 millions arrivals,
0 25
0.25 decreased 2 2,3%
3%
0.2
0.20
0.15
• Hotel and travel business turnover increased 6.4% y-o-y
0.1
0.10 • Population reached 6,763,100 by Dec 2011
0.05
00.00
0.0
0 000 • Unemployment rate: 4.3%4 3% in 2011 (Urban area: 6 6.7%)
7%)
20092009 2010 2010 2011 2011

4 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE
• New road: 1km-road
1km road connects Do
Duc Duc Road and Me Tri with
some sections are 50m wide.

• Two new under ground parking


on Bac Co and Tran Nhan Tong
streets will be approved in Q2/2012.

• Overpasses proposed:
• Lang Ha -Thai Ha
• Chua Boc -Thai Ha
Developer: Hanoi Department of
Transportation

• Ring Roads: In 2012,


2012 Hanoi will
speed up projects to finish Ring
Road 2 & 3. Expected completion
by 2016 for three rings roads 1-2-3.

5 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE
• Noi Bai Airport T2 Station –
Broke ground on 4 Dec 2011

• National Road 32 (Cau Dien -


Nhon) continues with completion
speed-up

• Nhat Tan Bridge:


• The North side: 40% completion
• The South side: on preparation
• On the river: intensive progress

• Hanoi – Hai Phong & Hanoi –


Lao Cai highways: clearance
process issues
p

• Extended National Road No.5:


delayed completion to end of
2012

6 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
New Launch Supply (Units)
NEW LAUNCH SUPPLY
„NEW
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Whole year
ƒ 2011: 25,000 units
25,000
20,000
− Sharp from 2009 & 2010
15,000 − Excl.
Excl mega projects (Times City & Royal City): 17
17,000
000 units
units, same
10,000 as 2009 & 2010
5,000 − Q4/2011: 4,500 units, small ~ Q1 & Q2
0 ƒ Historically,
Historically Q4 = biggest launch supply
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
ƒ 2011: market slowdown => developers adjust down supply
Q4/2011 New Launch Supply towards year-end
Luxury
29%

High-end
44%
„NEW LAUNCH PRICE
Mid d
Mid-end
49%
ƒ Primary Market:
Low-end
− Trending towards more affordable options: 45% of newly-launched
units priced below $1,250 psm
− Popular: promotions (furniture package, selective discount,
Q4/2011 Launch Price (USD psm) rewards for early payment)

Below $1,000 8%
− Rare: mass discount by 20% (VND 21.5 mil -> 17.5 mil; VND31-32
25% mil ->
> 25 mil)
mil).
$1,000-$1,250

$1,250-$1,500 47%
20%

Above $1,500

7 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE


„ SECONDARY ASKING PRICE
ƒ Price reduced both QUARTERLY and ANNUALLY
ƒ Q4: largest price reduction, accounting for almost the entire annual reduction
ƒ Price reduction in Completed projects < Under Construction projects
ƒ Longer term (2011 vs. 2008): price increase, esp. for Mid-end & Low-end, & Completed
Q4 vs
vs. 2011 vs.
vs 2011E vs
vs. 2008B Q4 vs
vs. 2011 vs.
vs 2011E vs
vs. 2008B
Q3 2010 (late peak) Q3 2010 (late peak)
Luxury -2.0% -1.5% 4.5% Completed -3.0% -1.0% 48.0%

High-end Under
-3.0%
3 0% -4.0%
4 0% 20 0%
20.0% 4 0%
-4.0% -7.0%
7 0% 13 0%
13.0%
Construction
Mid-end -3.5% -4.0% 42.5%

Low-end -3.0%
3 0% -2.5%
2 5% 76 0%
76.0%

„ FINANCING
Surveyed through a small sample of banks ƒ Reasons:
ƒ The situation is much worse in Q4 than Q1 − Earnings from independent businesses, NOT
salary, is the major source of loan repayment
Q4/2011 Q1/2011 => volatile and subject
j to economic condition
Overdue Mortgages − Tightened monetary policy => difficult to
~10% ~5% access funds for refinancing or loan roll-over
(safe ratio is 3%)
− Real
ea es
estate
a e market
a e sslowdown
o do => u
unable
ab e to
o
turn over capital by selling off estate assets

8 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
„OUTLOOK
ƒ 2012 new supply: 22,000 units from 60 projects
ƒ Trading volumes will reduce, dampening projects’ sales rates
ƒ In the past: speculators actively bought & sold units => inflated trading volumes
ƒ Present:
ƒ Fewers speculators willing to participate
ƒ Those, that still intend to participate, have their capital stuck in their existing portfolio &
can’t speculate further
ƒ 2012 forecasted to be a challenging year in terms of economic performance =>
condominium market continues to be affected
ƒ The market continues to trend towards Mid- and Low-end products
ƒ High-end
g & Luxuryyp
projects:
j
ƒ Opportunities are available, but ONLY for financially strong Players with committed
construction quality & visible construction progress
ƒ Selling off-plan is no longer a feasible strategy
ƒ Possible option for unsold high-end/luxury condo: converted to serviced apartments
ƒ Management fee issue & other developer-buyer disputes:
ƒ Exist in any market in its early stage of development such as HN
ƒ Would be intensified at a time like this when market favors buyers
ƒ Would be resolved as the market evolves (better legal framework, buyers and developers learn
to compromise,
p , etc.))

9 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

LANDED HOUSES
„ HIGHLIGHTS

ƒ Downward
D d ttrend
d iin asking
ki prices
i continued.
ti d

− ~40% of land sales or house units in 14 districts recorded saw


asking
gpprices lower than Q3/11.
− ~60% saw asking prices remain the same.
− Prices lower across all projects, including fully completed and
under construction projects
projects. Decreases range from a few
million VND to ten million VND per sm.

ƒ Compared to the beginning of year 2011:

− ~70% projects recorded lower prices


− Level of decreases ppopular
p in the range
g of 10%-20%

ƒ Relatively stable prices observed in projects such as


Linh Dam
Dam, Dinh Cong,
Cong Phap Van,
Van Trung Hoa Nhan Chinh

10 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
LANDED HOUSES
„ PROGRESS
ƒ Construction progress is slow in many projects, with a
p
few exceptions:
− Vincom Village handed over its first 50 units on schedule in
late October.
− Hillstate by Hyundai also handed over 62 out of 100 villas in
October.

Vincom Village, October 2011 „ OUTLOOK


ƒ Market activity will largely depend on the pickup of the
economy
ƒ Projects dominated by speculators will be under
pressure for further price correction.
ƒ More transactions are expected in late Q1/2012 as
prices level off.

Vincom Village, December 2011

11 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

OFFICE
T t l SSupply
Total l ((sm)) Existing Supply by Grade
ƒ New supply in Q4 2011: 143,000 sm
Grade A Grade B Grade C Grade A Grade B Grade C
ƒ Equivalent to ~15% of total market 1,200,000
supply 1,000,000
ƒ Of which,
which 113
113,450
450 sm in the West,
West 800 000
800,000
25.5% 25.8%
including Keangnam’s Landmark 72 600,000
of ~89,000 sm 400,000
200,000 48.7%
Vacancyy Rate ((%)) 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Grade A Grade B
40% Source: CBRE Vietnam
Source: CBRE Vietnam
30%

20% ƒ Grade B now accounts for half of total market supply


10%
thanks to 3 new entrants in Q4/2011
ƒ VA Tower: 14,450 sm (the West)
0%
2009 2010 2011 ƒ Detech Tower: 10,000
10 000 sm (the West)
Source: CBRE Vietnam ƒ Mipec Tower: 29,500 sm (Midtown)
Asking Rents (US$/sm/month)
ƒ Market vacancy
y rate increased due to new entrants
Grade A Grade B ƒ Grade A: 34%, up from 5% in Q3
$60
$50
ƒ Grade B: 24%, up from 18% in Q3
$40
$30 ƒ A
Average asking
ki rents t ttrended
d dddown d
due tto new entrants
t t
$20 in both Grade A & B, although no change in asking rents
$10
recorded in existing projects.
$0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: CBRE Vietnam

12 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
OFFICE – Dynamics
„ TENANTS „ LANDLORDS
ƒ Tenants generally don’t want to go ƒ Willing to provide heavy incentives to
through the hassle of moving out/in: attract tenants:
ƒ Major cost of fitting out is an issue, especially ƒ Free signage
in a challenging economic situation.
ƒ Relocation is a big issue to staff. ƒ Longer free rent period
CBD: 3 – 6 months (for at least a 3 year
ƒ Popular inquiries are for office space llease tterm))
of ~250 sm
The West: 8 months – 1 year (for at least
ƒ Tenants currently expect rents: a 5 year lease term)
ƒ of <US$30 ppsm pper month in the CBD ƒ Support tenant
tenant’ss fitting out cost
ƒ of <US$17 psm per month in the west ƒ Provide discounts without
changing headline rents

It’s a tenants’ market!!


ƒ Tenants have the ability to negotiate
rents and other terms
ƒ Achievable rents can be 20% lower
than asking rents

13 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

OFFICE
„ OUTLOOK

ƒ Amidst under construction projects, those showing good progress include


Western Bank (1A Lang Ha)
Ha), Licogi 13,
13 Vicem Tower,
Tower Indochina Plaza
Hanoi, Apex Tower.

ƒ Th
The western
t area looks
l k attractive
tt ti to t tenants
t t who
h needd large
l floor
fl plates.
l t
ƒ Landlords in this area are willing to compromise and provide incentives.
ƒ Tenants would be able to acquire greater space for lower rents,
compared to the CBD.

ƒ An increasing
g number of p
projects
j with long
g term lease are offering
g for sale.

ƒ The rapid increase in supply will lead to increased vacancy as demand is


yet to catch up in near term.

14 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
RETAIL

„ MARKET SNAPSHOT, Q4/2011


DEPARTMENT SHOPPING RETAIL
TOTAL
STORES CENTRES LOBBIES
Total supply Q4 2011 (NLA, sm) 46,000 189,981 10,310 246,291
New supply (NLA, sm) 30,000 79,500 0 109,500
Vacancy rate (%) 0 0%
0.0% 13 4%
13.4% 5 8%
5.8% 10 6%
10.6%
Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) $45.5 $34.3 $45.9 $37.1
CBD average asking rents (US$/sm/month) - $57.5 $77.2 $59.7
Y
Y-o-y change
h (%) - 5 5%
5.5% 17 6%
17.6% 7 5%
7.5%
Q-o-q change (%) - -0.4% 5.5% 0.3%
Non-CBD average asking rents (US$/sm/month) $45.5 $27.9 $21.0 $32.2
Y-o-y
Y o y change (%) -15.7%
15.7% -18.2%
18.2% 10.5% -12.2%
12.2%
Q-o-q change (%) -15.7% -26.1% 0.0% -19.3%

ƒ 109,500 sm (NLA) new retail space in Q4/2011

ƒ Large-scale retail objects have arrived on the other side of the Red River (Long Bien
District)

ƒ New supply explicitly in non-CBD area

ƒ Overall average retail rents dropped due to additional supply in suburban area with
lower rents
rents, otherwise hardly any change

15 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

RETAIL
Total Supply (NLA sm)
„ NEW SUPPLY
Shopping Centre Department Store Retail Lobby
ƒ Parkson Keangnam – Cau Giay
2,000,000

ƒ 02 Dec 2011 1,500,000


ƒ 28,700 sm (NLA)
1,000,000
ƒ 100 % occupancy
500,000
,

0
Source: Ngo Ha Source: parkson.com.vn
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f +2014f
ƒ Savico Mega Mall – Long Bien
*Future
Future Supply GFA sm
ƒ 16 Dec 2011 Source: CBRE Vietnam
ƒ 43,500 sm (NLA)
ƒ 85% occupancy Existing Supply by Type
Department Stores Shopping Centres Retail Lobbies
Source: tienphong.vn
4.2%
ƒ Vincom Center Long Bien – Long Bien 18.7%

ƒ 24 Dec 2011
ƒ 36,000 sm (NLA)
ƒ 100% occupancy
77.1%

Source: CBRE Vietnam

16 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
RETAIL
„ MAJOR TENANT MOVEMENTS
ƒ The Garden Mall Existing Supply by District (NLA sm)
ƒ Ground Floor attracted new brands
Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Hoan Kiem
ƒ Mango, Accessorize, Charles & Keith etc.
T LiLiem
Tu C Gi
Cau Giay L Bi
Long Bien
ƒ Hero World (FEC) replaces Home Center Others
(electronic) 4%
15%
ƒ Pico Mall
ƒ Food Court on the 4th and 5th floor opened 32% 11%
ƒ Snowee, Pizza Hut, KFC etc. 6%
ƒ Megastar (Cinema) will open Q1/2012
13%
ƒ Grand Plaza 19%
ƒ Shop tenants continued to withdraw
ƒ F&B has seen two new establishments Source: CBRE Vietnam

ƒ Hang Da Galleria Total area vs. leased area (sm NLA)


ƒ Several
S (mainly
( ffashion)) shops opened
Total area (sm NLA) Leased area (sm NLA)
ƒ 3rd (Shops) and 4th (F&B) floor will open in
Q1/2012 300,000
ƒ Vincom City y Towers & Vincom Galleries 250,000
ƒ 100% occupancy remained despite minor 200,000
changes 150,000
100,000
ƒ Replay, Kappa, G2000, Ferraud Paris, etc.
50,000
ƒ Metropol Sofitel Arcade 0
ƒ Panerei opened shop 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
ƒ Cartier & Chopard in fitting-out stage
Source: CBRE Vietnam

17 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

RETAIL
„ EXPECTED SUPPLY IN 2012
Future Supply (GFA sm)
ƒ Roughly 181,000 sm (GFA), significant projects are:
Under Construction Planning Status
ƒ Trangg Tien Plaza ((14,000
, sm))
ƒ Indochina Plaza (35,000 sm ) 800,000
ƒ Habico Tower (34,000 sm ) 600,000
ƒ Melinh Plaza in Ha Dong (45,000 sm) 400,000
ƒ Thang
Th L
Long IInt. Vill
Village (23,322
(23 322 sm)) 200,000
0
2012f 2013f +2014f
Trang Tien Plaza – Q1/Q2 Indochina Plaza HN – Q1/Q2
Source: CBRE Vietnam

Future Supply by Location (GFA sm)


CBD non-CBD

800,000

600 000
600,000

400,000

200,000

0
2012f 2013f +2014f

Source: CBRE Vietnam

18 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
RETAIL
„ OUTLOOK 2012
ƒ Developers delay completion date due to
ƒ Low tenant take up
ƒ Capital availability

ƒ Tenants consolidate – efficiency rather expansion

ƒ Contracts in VND – what could follow:


ƒ More turnover rent
ƒ Fixed escalation rate of e.g. 5% p.a.
Sales at Nguyen Kim Electronic
Store (Dec 2011)
ƒ Conversion of Shopping Centres to Entertainment
Centres “Nguyen Kim – discount up to 49%
for 500.000 electric goods”
g consumer spending
ƒ Tight p g will drive demand for
“Media
Media Mart – discount of VND 13 million for a
discount vouchers Samsung TV
+ 1 carton of Heineken Beer”
ƒ 2012 retail supply in combination with office &
residential “Big
Big C – for 600 goods 5 – 50% discount
discount”

ƒ Supermarkets likely to be a promising alternative “Topcare – up to 50% discount”


to shop-retailing

19 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

SERVICED APARTMENTS
Total Supply (units) „ HIGHLIGHTS
2,500
International Operator Self-managed ƒ No new supply: serviced apartments in Keangnam’s
y its schedule to open
Landmark 72 delayed p in Q4/2011.
2,000

1,500

1,000
ƒ Average asking rents increased slightly by ~1% both on
sm basis and unit basis compared to Q3/2011
500

0
− Normal fluctuation
04 05 06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 − Landlords seemed more willing to compromise on actual rents
Source: CBRE Vietnam

ƒ Vacancy increased:
Asking Rents (US$/sm/month)
International Operator Self-managed
− Vacancy was at 11
11.42%
42% in Q4/2011 (up from 8
8.32%
32% in
Average Q3/2011) (excl. 4 recent developments of Grand Plaza, Hoa
$60 Binh Green Apts, Crowne Plaza, and Melinh Plaza Tower)

$
$40
− Vacancyy in existingg pprojects
j increased due to competition
p from
buy-to-let projects and upcoming project of Keangnam’s
$20 Landmark 72.

$0
− Marketwide (incl. 4 recently projects), vacancy was at 19.95%,
virtually the same as Q3/2011.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: CBRE Vietnam

20 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
SERVICED APARTMENTS
„ DEMAND
ƒ Inquiries dropped towards year end and holiday season
ƒ Increasing demand from individuals with lower budget
of <US$2,000

„ OUTLOOK
ƒ Keangnam Serviced Apartments of 378 units will open
y 2012
in early
− Heavily targeting Korean clients
Crowne Plaza West Hanoi
Serviced Apartment
− Aggressive pricing scheme in order to fill up a large number
of units
− Compete with its buy-to-let units in the two residential towers
(renting at ~US$10 psm)
ƒ Slight drop in occupancy is expected in existing projects
in the next quarter due to competition with buy-to-let
apartments and new entrants.
ƒ C
Completion
l ti off Ri
Ring R
Road
d 3 iis tto iincrease attractiveness
tt ti
of projects by the Pham Hung corridor to people based
at industrial parks.

21 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

HOTEL
Total Supply
pp y ((rooms))
5-star 4-star 3-star „HIGHLIGHTS
10,000
ƒ Arrivals to Hanoi
8,000

6 000
6,000 − 2011:
0 Int’l 1.3mil
3 ((×2.6%
6% yy-o-y);
o y); Domestic
o es c 7.4mil (Ø2.3%
( 3% yy-o-y)
o y)
4,000 ƒ Int’l arrivals: tourism ×8.6%; business Ø16.8%
2,000 − Q4/11: Int’l ×34% q-o-q & ×17% y-o-y; Domestic ×27% q-o-q &
0 ×24% y-o-y
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2010 2011 2012f 2013f

ƒ Existing Supply: 7,445 rooms


Average Daily Rate (US$/room/night)
55-star
sa 4-star
sa 33-star
sa
− Addition (37 5-star rooms)
$160 ƒ The last 37 rooms from Hotel de l'Opera Hanoi
$140
$120 − Deduction (120 3-star rooms)
$100
$80 ƒ Tay Ho is temporarily closed for renovation
$60
$40
$20 ƒ Market performance
$0
2009 2010 2011 − Occupancy (in all segments) × 6-9% q-o-q (thanks to high
season) but Ø3 12% y-o-y
Ø3-12% y o y (most severely 4-star)
4 star)
Occupancy Rate (%)
− ADR q-o-q: only 5-star ×7%; 4-star Ø3%; 3-star Ø1%
5-star 4-star 3-star
ƒ Y-o-y decrease market-wide 4%-9%
80%
− RevPar (q-o-q)
(q o q) ×9%-25%
×9% 25%
60%
ƒ ×: Sofitel Metropole, Sofitel Plaza, Crowne Plaza, Bao Son…
40%
ƒ Ø: Muong Thanh Xa La…
20%
− RevPar (y
(y-o-y)
o y) Ø10% 22%
Ø10%-22%
0% ƒ ×: Sofitel Metropole
2009 2010 2011
ƒ Ø: Horison, Muong Thanh Hanoi, Hanoi…
22 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012
HOTEL
Future Supply
pp y ((rooms)) byy Current Status
Under construction Construction not commenced
„OUTLOOK
4,000
ƒ Future Supply
3,000
− Novotel
o o e Hanoi
a o oon the
e Park
a pproject
ojec will be moved
o ed to
o Pham
a Hung
u g
2,000
− Roughly 1,000 5-star rooms will come onstream in 2012
1,000
− Some projects might defer their opening, depending on the
0 market condition byy that time.
2012f 2013f 2014+

ƒ Outlook
− Tourism: International arrivals to Hanoi might keep increasing in
2012 but at low pace vs decreasing trend in domestic arrivals
− 2012 might be a challenging year for hotel industry (economic
downturn, business trips cut, airfare surge...)
ƒ 3-star: remains stable in operation performance
ƒ 4-star: lacks recognized brands thus might face hard time
ƒ 5-star: some hotels will have stable operation while some
others
th might
i ht face
f difficulties
diffi lti & needd restructuring
t t i / rebranding;
b di

H t l de
Hotel d l'Opera
l'O Hanoi
H i
The latest member of Accor's
MGallery Collection

23 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

For further information and order details, please contact…


quarterlyreports@cbrevietnam com
quarterlyreports@cbrevietnam.com
Q4/2011 released
Friday, Jan 20, 2012

© 2012 CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the
information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make
no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known
to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CB Richard Ellis
clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CB Richard Ellis.

24 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s HANOI QUARTERLY REPORT | JAN 2012

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