Metaphorical Lesson Plan John Weigand

Title: Probability of Events

Subject: Statistics/Probability (Math)
Grade Level(s): 7th Advanced
Duration: 40-50 minutes

Essential Question(s):
How does probability affect real world events like the stock market?

Focus questions:
How is probability calculated?
What are the chances of a dice rolling on a specific number?
What makes a spinner have a fair chance of landing on any one color?

Type of Lesson: Metaphorical Expression

Standards:
MGSE7.SP.5: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1
that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood.
A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that
is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
MGSE7.SP.7a: Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all
outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events

TAG Standards:
Advanced Communication Skills:
7. The student responds to contributions of others, considering all available information
Creative Thinking and Creative Problem Solving:
5. The student develops original ideas, presentations, or products through synthesis and
evaluation.
6. The student, independently or through collaboration with classmates, clarifies, illustrates, or
elaborates on an idea for product improvement.

(Carousel Analogy Cards attached.)

Summary:
Students will learn about direct, personal, and compressed conflict analogies to better
understand the concept of probability. They will discover how probability is like real world
concepts and have a better understanding of the significance of probability in life. They will
read various articles, discuss with peers, and compare ideas of their own to
probability. Students will be able to compare probability to real world concepts and discuss
how probability affects these ideas as their exit ticket (EQ).
Metaphorical Lesson Plan John Weigand

Evidence of Learning:
What student should KNOW: This is an introductory lesson to probability. They should have an
idea of what probability is and what risk means. They have an understanding of chance and
have learned how percentages work with chance/probability ranging from 0-100%.

What student should BE ABLE TO DO: They can find relationships between probability
vocabulary terms and real world direct and indirect ideas. They can put themselves into the
mindset of a game or a dice and discuss its importance in probability.
Suggested Vocabulary:
Probability, Risk, Frequency, Fair Chance, Outlier, Mean, Measures of Center

Procedure
Intro Carousel Activity and Hook:
Students will be asked how probability affects real world events? Teacher will discuss a carnival
game where students win 5 dollars if they land on red and lose 5 dollars if they land on
blue. There are 4 parts and 3 of the 4 parts are red but one part is blue. Then, students will be
asked to talk to their group for 2 minutes to decide what to do and if it is worth the risk. (5
minutes total)

Carousel Activity: Students will participate in a Carousel Brainstorming Activity. They will read
the question on each station card and write their ideas. Then, they will rotate to expand ideas
at another station and add more ideas of their own. Teacher will go over direct analogy,
personal, and compressed conflicts. Students have 65 seconds per station and then they
rotate. Then, they will go back around and star ideas they really like and add any additional
comments for 30 seconds rounds. (about 5.5 minutes)

This activity will lead into the lesson on analogies.

Students will read about probability using the provided article or you could use the following
probability video ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO3SHOGb4Z8) and fill out the content
organizer with their groups. (5-7 minutes).

Direct Analogy:
After, students read the short blurb on video games and fill out the direct analogy organizer in
groups (5 minutes).

Personal Analogy:

Students then work on the personal analogy organizer comparing terms of probability to social
norms. (5-7 minutes)
They will answer the following questions as a group, as if they were a board game
1. What game would you like to be?
2. How do you create choice and opportunity for the player?
Metaphorical Lesson Plan John Weigand

3. How do you feel when your rules challenge the player to make good/bad decisions?
4. How do you ensure you are fair and impartial to all the players?
Students will write a story, comic, poem, or song in which they are the ruler of a game and
create chances, events, and probability for the players.

Compressed Analogy:
Finally, students will complete the compressed conflict organizer with their groups, writing 5
ideas/significant words about probability and 5 antonyms of those ideas on the other
side. They will then create their own compressed conflicts on the bottom of the handout. (5-7
minutes)

Synthesis:
Students will now work to create their own direct analogy by completing the following
sentence, probability is like ______________________. Give at least 5 reasons why probability
is like the item in your sentence. (5 minutes)

Exit Ticket:
Students must answer the EQ again, using what they have learned today. (5 minutes)
.
Assessment:
Formative Assessment: Exit Ticket, Answer EQ based on what we learned today and turn in.

Differentiation: Students are grouped with similar ability students and complete challenge
type questions where they must problem solve and work together. Class discusses ideas and
teacher walks around the room to pull struggling groups or students for extra help or
prompting to help them in the right direction.

Resources:
7 Handouts and EQ written on white board:
Handout 1: Mental Stretchers
Handout 2: Probability Content
Handout 3: Content Organizer
Handout 4: Video Game Document
Handout 5: Direct Analogy Organizer
Handout 6: Personal Analogy Organizer
Handout 7: Compressed Conflict Organizer