Countries at Risk: Bangladesh; Belize; Benin; Bhutan; Brazil;Burkina

Faso; Burundi; Cambodia; China; Egypt; Eritrea; Ethiopia;Ghana; Guinea-

Bissau; Haiti; India; Indonesia; Jordan; Kenya;Kyrgyzstan; Laos; Malawi; Malaysia; Maldives; Namibia; Nepal; Nigeria;Peru
; Philippines; Romania; Rwanda; South Africa; Sri
Lanka;Tajikistan; Tanzania; Thailand; Uganda; Uzbekistan; Vietnam; Zambia
Bangladesh

If climate change proves to be the force that shapes the 21st century, then Bangladesh offers an
early vision of our future. Its land is crossed with waterways, defensive dykes and structures; Cyclone Sidr
roads and houses are constructed above ground level; early warning systems and emergency
shelters have already protected tens of thousands of lives from Cyclone Sidr. The government has ©Integrated
published a 10 year action plan which refers to its “pro-poor, climate resilient and low-carbon
development strategy”. It plans to establish a “climate change cell” in every ministry and has set
Regional
up a National Climate Change Fundinto which generous bilateral donations have already been
made towards the ambitious $5 billion target.
Information
Networks
With one of the lowest per capita levels of energy consumption in the world, Bangladesh is a major (IRIN)
point of reference for the injustice of climate change. Although alarmist media projections are
typically based on a rise in sea level well beyond the worst case 2100 scenario outlined by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), nevertheless there is a real risk that
significant land mass will be lost, forcing the migration of large numbers of people. In a climate Man with
pincer movement from the north, retreating Himalayan glaciers create great uncertainty in the
management of dozens of rivers that flow through Bangladesh into the Bay of Bengal. Shorter but child in
more severe monsoons, longer periods of drought, and more violent tropical storms, complete the
roll call of climate predictions for Bangladesh. Cyclone Sidr killed 3,500 people and destroyed over
floodwaters,
half a million homes in 2007. Bangladesh
The impact on food security, over and above the loss of productive © CARE
land by sea and river erosion, is the principal concern. The IPCC
has predicted a small drop in rice yields by 2050 but over 30% for International
wheat. New crop varieties will be tested and the challenge of
finding new livelihoods is already familiar to many households. UK
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Belize

Belize lies in the path of the annual cycle of hurricanes that sweep
across the Caribbean. The country has never before experienced
landfall of a Category 5 hurricane but during 2007 there were two.
Belize is home to the largest coral reef system in the Western
Hemisphere which, in addition to suffering damage caused by Fish and corals
storms, is also vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures. Rising
sea level is also a natural concern for a country most densely in Belize ©
occupied along its coastal region. Campaigners have petitioned the
UN to rule thatcountries responsible for climate change are in WWF-
breach of their obligations to World Heritage Sites such as the
Belize Barrier Reef. Whatever the outcome it appears likely that a
Canon/Anthony
country which is possibly a net sink for carbon dioxide through its
extensive forests will nonetheless find itself in the front line of
B. Rath
climate change impact.
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Benin

The fragile productivity of agriculture will be sensitive to the changing rainfall patterns predicted to result from global
warming. In the south of Benin, the coastline has retreated by 400 metres in the last 40 years, resulting in loss of land and
buildings. The economic capital, Cotonou, is particularly prone to flooding due to being located barely above sea level. In
2007 the government banned the commercial extraction of sand and is embarking on a $73 million project to build dykes
along the coast. About half of Benin’s population lives in coastal regions and the country may become one of the benchmarks
for the impact of global warming.

Bhutan
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Venice © Dan
Increased danger of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods is the main impact expected from global
warming in Bhutan. 22 glacial lakes are at risk of bursting, two lakes in West Bhutan have a Gerber
very high risk. Efforts are undertaken to reduce the waterlevel and set up an early warning
system. The National Environment Commission is presently assessing technology needs to
deal with the effects of global warming.
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Brazil

There are concerns about the use of soya and sugar cane for the production of biofuels, as
part of Brazil's high profile support for renewable energy sources (it is the world's largest
producer and consumer of ethanol). At the same time, it is the eighth largest emitter of
greenhouse gases and the third largest in the developing world, after China and India,
stemming largely from forestry and unsustainable land use.
Amazon
During 2005, the Amazon region was hit by a severe drought, the worst for forty years,
threatening health and the local economy as well as the environment. The cause of the burning
drought is thought to be rising sea temperatures in the North Atlantic - indeed the Amazon
rainforest and climate change are evolving in a highly sensitive state of interdependence. In © Environment
fact, desertification is an issue in Brazil as a whole with 16% of the national territory at risk,
particularly in the North and Northeast. News Service
Burkina Faso
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(ENS)
Concerns focus on the predominant livelihood of subsistence agriculture which is inefficient and highly vulnerable. For example, although the harvest for
2007 has exceeded basic food needs, poor distribution and poverty ensure that child malnutrition remains over 30%. All regions are known to have poor
coping capacity for drought, flooding, and locusts, each of which is a regular hazard in Burkina Faso. The prospect of climate change aggravating these
sensitivities undermines the already formidable challenge of the MDGs.
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Burundi

Food security has been declining in Burundi since 1993, with conflict-related displacement and disruption undermining agricultural productivity. This was
already hampered by its fragile profile of small farms, frequent land disputes, bad water management and lack of modern equipment. The situation has
been aggravated in 2006 and 2007 by unstable climate conditions, firstly the drought that has affected all of East Africa, and secondly from
serious flooding after torrential rains in the western provinces. Burundi will be one of the African countries to watch in the context of sensitivity to climate
change. The country's National Adaptation Programme of Action points out that "all the vital sectors of the national economy are affected by (climate
change)" and that Burundi has "very low capacity of adaptation".
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Cambodia

The impact of climate change is threatening to undermine Cambodia's efforts to catch up with the MDG programme. The
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in 2006 mentions anecdotal evidence of increased incidence of
flooding since 2000 but contains little scientific analysis of the nature of potential change and its impact. However, it is
recognised that the tropical climates in this region are particularly volatile and that Cambodia is predicted tol experience
greater frequency and extremes of floods and drought.
Cambodia
Flooding and disablement of irrigation systems causes losses in rice production which Cambodia can ill afford. Adaptation
projects will therefore give priority to water infrastructure and raising awareness amongst communities with very poor farmer
capacity for adaptation. Water management will also be relevant to address concerns about thespread of malaria and dengue
fever, the latter has been particularly virulent in 2007. © Heifer
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China International
Concerns about food security will be heightened further by the potential impact of climate change. The uncertain effect of drought and floods on crop
yields together with the upheaval in freshwater availability caused by melting glaciers have rung alarm bells in government. Adaptation plans feature the
repair and improvement of irrigation and sea defence systems, together with the application of biotechnology to improve yields in adverse conditions.

The cost of adaptation may prove a key influence in China’s policy on mitigation. During 2007 China overtook the US as the world's
largest contributor of carbon dioxide emissions, years ahead of forecasts. Dozens of new coal-fired power stations are coming on
stream and the country accounts for over 40% of global usage of cement. China is also responsible for emissions indirectly through
importing more tropical hardwood than the rest of the world combined, much of it sourced from illegal loggers in Indonesia and
Papua New Guinea. Nevertheless, global finger-wagging at Chinese pollution should be tempered by theinherent complicity of rich
country markets which are happy to purchase finished timber goods and to outsource manufacturing to China's special economic
zones where they benefit from lower environmental and labour regulations than apply at home. Analysis of net exports suggests
that about 15% of China's emissions should be attributed to western consumers.

Over-dependent on antiquated technology and coal, China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP is more than five times the
European equivalent; this measure continued to rise in 2006 despite the government's goal to reduce it by 20% in the period 2006-
2010. China refuses to contemplate specific emissions targets for as long as its per capita carbon footprint remains so much less
than that in developed countries (3.5 tons per person pa compared with 20 tons in US in 2004). Equally the US refuses to accept a
target without China's participation and the G8 summit in Japan in 2008 failed to resolve this impasse. The China
Egypt
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budget
car, by
No Ministry exists to address the impact of climate change in Egypt, nor even an agency to coordinate the
country’s response. There appears to be a lack of detailed research into potential scenarios and few plans for
Matthew J.
adaptation. Yet most global studies are quick to point out that much of the Nile delta lies below sea level and Stinson
precious arable land must be vulnerable to salt intrusion, even for conservative predictions of rising sea
levels. One estimate suggests that a one meter rise in sea level would displace over 10% of Egypt’s
population.

Upstream uncertainties create a potential pincer impact on the Nile. Opinion appears divided as to whether
evaporation caused by rising temperatures will reduce the flow of the river or whether increased rainfall will
replenish it. As the Nile provides 95% of Egypt’s freshwater needs, the importance of more confident
Nile at
predictions cannot be overstated.
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Aswan ©
Eritrea Jeff Black
The government's isolationist food strategy was adopted before the impact of climate change on Africa had reached its current high state of alert. Eritrea is
potentially one of the most vulnerable countries in the continent, as is made clear in the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in
2007. The prospect of increased variability in rainfall patterns, more frequent drought, and rising sea levels (Eritrea has many low-lying islands) acting on
a primitive system of agriculture surely calls for more fundamental investment than the steps of basic good practice identified in the NAPA report.

Unusually, the science of climate modelling is unable to provide helpful projections for these changing weather patterns in
Eritrea. Whilst there is consensus that the temperature is rising at a faster rate than the global average, scientific models do
not agree about the future impact this may have on the volume or intensity of rainfall.
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Ethiopia

Whatever its failings, the Ethiopian government has done nothing to deserve the uncertain fate that climate change will
impose on a social infrastructure that has virtually no capacity to adapt. It is the prospect of yet more uncertainty in patterns
of rainfall that threatens to undermine the basis for current food security strategies. In assessing a shortlist of simple
projects to respond to climate change, the government’s National Adaptation Programme of Action identifies as its top
priority the innovative idea of insurance against losses caused by drought. The prospect of offloading risk to financial Drought in
institutions from countries responsible for climate change has already been explored in Ethiopia.
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Ethiopia ©
Ghana Rachel
Like most African countries Ghana will be extremely sensitive to the impact of climate change
Stabb / Oxfam
on its poor farmers. It has the additional serious vulnerability in the link between its primary Great Britain
energy supply and climate, most vividly illustrated in 2007. A long period of drought reduced
the level of the Volta Lake below the point at which the hydro-electric turbine could function,
effectively switching off 60% of Ghana's power supply with fundamental economic
consequences. Then exceptional rainfall dramatically reversed the situation but caused
catastrophic flooding in the northern region, affecting 400,000 people and creating serious
short term food shortages. At the New York climate summit in September 2007, President
Kufuor was able to reflect on the bitter experience of successive drought and flooding, stating
Rice farming,
that it was "obviously climate change related, if not wholly caused by it". Ghana
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Guinea-Bissau
The country's mainstream dependency on commodity prices is matched by dependency on weather conditions. Inevitably,
the National Programme of Action of Adaptation (NAPA) for Guinea-Bissau warns that the country is “exposed to the negative
effects of climate changes in almost all productive sectors of national life”. It is also clear that the combination of poverty
and primitive rural infrastructure renders communities vulnerable to very small changes in temperature, rainfall and sea
level.

Extreme climatic events such as flooding and salt water inundation appear already to be occurring with greater frequency,
with serious implications for food security. Major food shortages resulted in a famine warning for the Tombali region in 2006.
Most rice is grown on coastal floodplains which are also home to about 80% of the population. The need to protect rice
productivity through sea defences, irrigation, and use of salt-resistant seed varieties emerges as the main target for Vulnerable
adaptation. The NAPA requests a modest figure of $6.3 million of aid to carry out the recommended adaptation
programmes. Guinea-Bissau
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Haiti coastline ©
Damaging feedback loops in the relationship between environmental degradation and poverty are Tom Shaw
particularly acute in Haiti. Many poor Haitians still rely on wood and charcoal for domestic activities
which sets off a chain of deforestation, desertification and soil erosion, which in turn reduces farm
yields. Widespread deforestation has affected 98% of Haiti's forests, leaving the country vulnerable
to hurricanes which sweep through the region. During the 2004 hurricane season, severe mudslides
and flooding claimed thousands of lives whereas in neighbouring Dominican Republic, where forest
cover has been preserved, less than 20 lives were lost. The impact of climate changeon hurricane
and rainfall patterns injects an alarming new dimension to this cycle of poverty.
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India

Faultlines in India’s food security are deep enough already without the uncertain impact of climate
change. With more than 60% of agriculture dependent on rain-fed crops, even modest alteration in
the intensity, frequency and timing of rainfall should cause consternation. Greenpeace is striving to
raise awareness by campaigning in India’s coastal cities where it says 50 million people are at risk
Wading
from rising sea levels. Adaptation plans are conspicuous by their absence; the Chair of the through
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra K. Pachauri, himself an Indian, has expressed
the view that India is completely unprepared for the impact of climate change which he considers the Orissa
could lead to social unrest. Criticism of management of the 2008 monsoon floods which displaced 3
million people in Bihar alone, and which have been described as the worst for 50 years, may hold floodwaters
lessons for the future.
© Christian
Apart from rainfall patterns, water resources are threatened by the retreat of Himalayan
Aid
glaciers which currently account for 85% of the source water of India’s 3 major rivers, in particular
securing their flow in the summer months. Over 400 million people live in the catchment of the Ganges. Predictions that the
glaciers could disappear within decades make a nonsense of the ambitious $200 billion River-Linking Project which aims to
connect the apparently healthy rivers in the north to those in the drier south.

India sits on both sides of the table in climate change negotiations. Already the world's 4th largest emitter of greenhouse gases,
itsemissions are projected to treble by 2050 at current rates – a new coal-fired power station is scheduled to come on stream
almost every month for the next 10 years. The country has no obligations under the Kyoto protocol and has stipulated that it is
unwilling to agree to any targets that deny its right to per capita use of energy on a par with that of
the current major emitting countries. Kashmir
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Indonesia hills

Indonesia is uniquely boxed in by climate change. Its high rate of deforestation has catapulted the
country into the top five contributors to carbon emissions. At the same time Indonesia faces very
significant potential impacts, potentially undermining the MDG programme. A World Bank sponsored
report envisages "serious food security and health threats while endangering the habitats and
livelihoods of coastal communities". As the wet and dry seasons become more extreme in their Log barge,
character, there are concerns that rice varieties that typically crop twice a year will no longer do so
and that water availability for irrigation and household use will be disrupted. Indonesia, FO-
Indonesia is no stranger to extreme weather events, typically brought about by the phenomenon 5709 ©
known as El Nino. The rising temperatures of climate change appear not only to be modifying the
frequency of El Nino to once every 3 years instead of 4, but also to increasing the intensity of its Patrick Durst /
tempests and floods. A string of disasters over recent years have revealed the tragic vulnerability of
communities throughout Indonesia to natural phenomena. Damage to human life and infrastructure
Food and
is rising. Agriculture
There is very limited room for maneuver in countering the impact of climate change in Indonesia. Organization
There is reference to use of appropriate seed varieties, to planting mangrove forests to protect
coastal populations, and to strengthening the infrastructure of water and sanitation. In international of the United
negotiations for a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, Indonesia is advocating that the Clean
Development Mechanism should be amended so that a halt to deforestation would be rewarded by Nations
carbon credit payments from rich countries.
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Jordan

Human development in Jordan has always been intricately linked with

scarcity of water, a challenge now greatly aggravated by the
uncertainties of climate change. Although personal access to a safe
water source is almost universal, Jordan is one of the ten poorest
countries in the world in terms of water availability. Supplies in the
cities are rationedso that per capita consumption is only 170 cubic
meters of water per year, against the WHO scarcity guideline of 1,000
cubic meters. Having experienced five years of below average rainfall,
Dead Sea ©
the potential impact of climate change on crop yields and water Batir Wardam
availability has added an alarming new dimension to Jordan's intricate
natural resource management. Friends of the Earth Middle East has even suggested that Jordan will have to abandon the use of freshwater for agriculture
which consumes 65% of the resource whilst contributing only 3% to GDP.
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Kenya

By far the most severe environmental threat to Kenya is caused byincreasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns that are consistent with the predictions of
human induced global warming. The consequence is uncertain food security, malnutrition and poverty, and an escalation of violent land disputes as the
area's pastoralists compete for scarce water resources.
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Kyrgyzstan

The river basins of Kyrgyzstan are critical sources of potable and irrigation water for the Central Asian region. As these rivers
are fed by the thousands of glaciers in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan, the potential impact of climate change looms large. As
the glaciers begin to disappear, implications for sharing the vital resource for agriculture, hydropower, and household
consumption may raise tension within the region, with Kyrgyzstan at the epicentre of this potential geo-strategic minefield.
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Laos © Vyacheslav
Oseledko
Concerns about malnutrition and food insecurity can only be aggravated by the potential
impact of climate change which is regarded as particularly alarming for this region of Southeast
Asia. The 2007 WFP report lists drought in the north and east, flash floods in the low-lying
Mekong River basin, and low yielding crops amongst the existing causes of food insecurity, all
of which may be exaggerated by rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and more
extreme typhoons. Laos is one of few LDC countries not to take advantage of UN funding to
publish a National Adaptation Programme of Action which would identify any relatively low cost
priorities that might respond to the threat. Kuang Xi
Laos is also a key agent in the mitigation side of the climate change equation, having failed so Waterfall,
far to act on the MDG objective to “reverse the loss” of tropical forests, instead allowing its
extensive coverage to fall from 47% in 1992 to an unverified current figure of about 35%. The Laos © Yip
combined pressures of commercial interests in logging, copper and gold mining, and wood-pulp
plantations have overwhelmed government institutions weakened by corruption. Hopes are Seng Leong
pinned on the prospect of Laos participating in a new “avoided deforestation” mechanism
agreed at the 2007 Bali climate change conference in which poor countries could be paid compensation for protecting their
forests.
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Malawi

The impact of climate change on the fragile interplay between environment and poverty is causing great concern. A 2006
Floods in
ActionAid report observed that "smallholder farmers in Malawi have been exposed to increased droughts and floods,
tremendously affecting food security". Most of the poorest people depend on rain-fed agriculture whilst richer urban
Malawi
communities are themselves dependent on hydro-electric power which dominates Malawi's energy supplies. The country's © United
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) identifies 5 priority projects valued at a mere $22.4 million, a tiny fraction
of adaptation budgets currently emerging in rich countries. Nations'
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Malaysia Integrated
Always somewhat reticent about publishing environmental data, Malaysia was subject to the embarrassing disclosure that its
Regional
carbon dioxide emissions expanded 221% between 1990 and 2004, the highest rate in the world during a period in which the
Kyoto Protocol, ratified by Malaysia, seeks to reduce emissions. An equally embarrassing and contributory factor is the
Information
annual rate of deforestation which almost doubled during this time from 0.35% to 0.65%. Malaysia was the world's biggest Network
producer of palm oil in 2007 and the expansion of this crop has been cited as a significant cause of deforestation, a view not
accepted by the Malaysian government.

Malaysia is acutely aware of the potential impact of climate change on its own sensitive tropical ecosystems, in particular an estimated 10% fall in rice
yields for each one degree rise in temperature, and the hydrological implications of more intense flooding and drought. The country's formal 5 year
economic plans will in future include a chapter addressing the mitigation of climate change.
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Maldives

Maldives is one of the countries that is most vulnerable to rising sea levels caused by global warming. In offering an upper
estimate of 0.59m for the potential rise in sea level by 2100, the 2007 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) stresses that scientific uncertainties over carbon feedback loops have not been taken into account so
that this is not an “upper bound” prediction. 80% of the land area in Maldives is less than 1m above mean sea-level and
47% of houses are less than 100m from the coastline. The combination of high tides and storm surges that occur usually
during May will clearly pose an ever-increasing threat of devastating consequences for the country. Ominously, an
unprecedented number of 55 islands were inundated in the storm surge in May 2007.

Submersion of the Maldives beneath the waves is an image of doom exploited by many climate change activists. The Addu Atoll.
Maldivians themselves appear in no mood to succumb. An emerging strategy of “safer islands” reinforces the development
plans for “population and development consolidation” in that people from the lower lying islands might relocate to others Maldives ©
more suitable where they can be protected against sea intrusion. One third of the population already
lives in Male, surrounded by a sea wall and dependent on expensive desalination plants for water Karin Afeef
supplies.

From a very long list of potential adaptation projects, the government’s National Adaptation
Programme of Action (NAPA) identifies the priorities as coastal protection and population movement. It
acknowledges that the upper end of IPCC predictions would bring regular inundation of “almost all
islands”. Salt water intrusion will also be damaging to food production whilst any reduction in rainfall
will affect the majority of the Atoll populations who rely on rainwater harvesting for their source of
water. The NAPA attempts no costings - adaptation funding proposals that emerged from the Bali
Conference in 2007 do not remotely approach the urgent needs of countries such as Maldives.
However, in a radical development in 2008, Maldives was successful in lobbying the UN Human Rights
Council to assess whether the threat to survival posed by climate change amounts to violation of
human rights.
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Namibia

The recognised faultlines in Namibia's food security do not yet factor in the potential impact of climate change nor is there much evidence of public
awareness nor government plans for adaptation. Yet a report published in late 2007 by the UK research group International Institute for Environment and
Development describes Namibia as "highly vulnerable" to climate change and calls for urgent mainstreaming of its impact into all government policies.

Namibia has been referred to as a sandwich country, a slice of bushveld between two deserts: the Namib to the west and the Kalahari in the east. The
risks of global warming lie predictably in increased intensity of drought leading to desertification and water scarcity, ironically combined with extreme
flooding. The report says that there have been limited studies of the effect of changing sea temperatures on Namibia's rich fishing resources which "rely on
the nutrient-rich upwellings of the cold Benguela current". It suggests that, with 30% of GDP dependent on the natural environment, including tourism,
global warming could account for annual losses of between 1% and 6% of GDP. The state of emergency that the government was forced to declare in
March 2008 in response to severe flooding and an outbreak of cholera in northern parts of the country may prompt greater focus on the subject.
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Nepal

Crop yields in Nepal are damaged by extreme monsoon conditions, the pattern of which appears to have become unsettled,
most likely the consequence of climate change. The monsoon floods of 2008 have displaced 180,000 people and caused
widespread destruction of crops.
Mountain
Climate change, to which Nepal is a minimal contributor, also threatens to thaw Himalayan
snow and glaciers with potentially disastrous results. Reports published by UN agencies in
floods
2007 conclude that the Himalaya region is warming at twice the global average rate and © International
that glaciers are retreating faster than elsewhere in the world. As many as 20 lakes in the
mountainous region have been identified as at risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). Centre for
Nepal lacks resources and expertise necessary to evaluate these risks and is considerably
behind other Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in preparation of a National Adaptation Integrated
Programme of Action (NAPA).
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Nigeria
Development
A more insidious cause of the decline in Nigeria's agricultural productivity is desertification
which has taken hold of 35% of previously cultivable land in the 11 northern states, its cause
being a mix of a warming climate and deforestation for wood fuel, the latter accounting for an Nigerian
alarming 400,000 hectares each year.
wetlands are
Climate change is unequivocally behind the threat to Nigeria’s coastal regions posed by rising
sea levels. Ironically the Niger Delta is also the location of the oil reserves but this region’s
under threat
low-lying terrain criss-crossed with waterways makes it extremely vulnerable to flooding. The © WWF-
city of Lagos was cited in a high level report to the Nairobi climate change conference in
November 2006, suggesting that as many as 1.3 million people could be affected. Canon/Meg
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Peru Gawler / WWF
All aspects of water management in Peru are vulnerable to the potentially serious impact of
International
climate change. The country possesses the largest number of tropical glaciers in the world, a
vital source of freshwater during the dry season to the largely desert coastal region. Furthermore, 60% of electricity is generated by hydropower and 60%
of agricultural land is irrigated. These glaciers are in retreat and predictions suggest that the volume of water availability
could begin to fall from as early as 2030.

Ironically, Peru itself controls some of the levers of climate change, being home to the third largest area of tropical rainforest
in the world. The rate of deforestation is believed to be less than 0.5% per annum, lower than is found in so many other
countries but not sufficient to fulfil the MDG target which calls to “reverse” the loss of forests.
Government attempts to protect its natural resources come under pressure from all sides, from
China’s acquisition of logging rights to small-scale farmers seeking land. Gold mining and oil
exploration are particularly damaging whilst major projects such as the trans-oceanic highway
and the Camisea gas pipeline project attract the attention of global environmental
© Oxfam
campaigners. Much may depend on the outcome of international climate change negotiations
to offer compensation payments for “avoided deforestation” to countries such as Peru.
International
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Philippines

None of the poverty reduction or health improvement programmes in the Philippines takes any
account of the impact of climate change. Yet at the 2007 Bali UN Climate Change Conference,
Philippines was the highest placed country in a new Global Climate Risk Index. This recognised Slash and
that during 2006 extreme weather events accounted for 3,000 deaths and widespread
destruction by mudslides and typhoons. The country has always been prone to natural burn in the
disasters and the prospect of increased frequency and intensity spurred Greenpeace to publish
a special report on the impact of climate change in the Philippines. Apart from extreme Philippines ©
weather, there is concern that increasing temperature will affect agricultural yields and food
security, whilst rising sea levels threaten over 40 million people who live in coastal regions. VJ
Romania
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Toledo/WWF-
EU membership may not be the only significant influence on Romanian farming in the early
Canon / WWF
21st century. Many areas of the country are prone to drought, increasingly so in recent International
decades according to the country's National Strategy on Climate Change 2005-2007 document.
In 2007, the wheat harvest was down 46%. Exceptionally high temperatures and water shortages have become familiar and are predicted to reduce crop
yields.
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Rwanda

In a rain-fed agrarian economy where poverty and food insecurity are rife, climate change sharpens its claws for potentially devastating impact. Any
reduction in rainfall will damage farm yields whilst extreme or torrential downpours will hasten the process of soil erosion. Rwanda’s National Adaptation
Programme of Action (NAPA) published in 2007 was bound to conclude that a great proportion of the population is highly vulnerable to climate change with
very limited capacity for adaptation. Priorities for action are identified as the development of an integrated water management strategy, early warning
systems for weather patterns and the use of adaptable crop varieties.

The most urgent need identified in the NAPA is to put a stop to the almost universal use of firewood for cooking, as the loss of trees is exposing soils to
erosion and negating government efforts at reforestation. Expansion of hydropower is difficult as river levels are already falling whilst other renewable
sources such as solar are prohibitively expensive. Rwanda’s hopes for an energy revolution are pinned on the innovative exploitation of methane trapped
in Lake Kivu – some estimates suggest that this source could upgrade the country’s capacity by a factor of ten.
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South Africa

A further complication for food security strategy is the uncertain impact of climate change in South Africa. One prediction is that the west will become
more prone to drought whilst the east will suffer storms and floods. Agriculture yields and freshwater supplies are very sensitive to rainfall patterns and
debate as to how to adapt to climate change is slowly gaining momentum.

South Africa is also a major contributor to climate change, being 11th on the list of carbon dioxide emitters, ahead of France and Spain. Although it has no
commitments to targeted reductions under the current Kyoto protocol, the government has put forward initial plans for energy efficiency and a carbon tax.
However, a public survey has shown that South Africans have the lowest awareness of climate change issues in the world, ranked alongside China and
US.
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Sri Lanka
Climate change will accentuate growing fears about food security, given the predictions of falling crop yields and disruption to the water cycle. Sri Lanka's
paddy farmers have already adjusted the timing of the planting cycle in response to changing monsoon patterns and are experimenting with rice varieties
that can cope with less water andhigher levels of salinity. Floods destroyed 2.5% of harvests in early 2008.

There are inevitable worries about the impact of rising sea levels on a coastline already battered by the 2004 tsunami. The irony of the more serious
projections is that the Jaffna Peninsular, over which so much blood has been spilt, faces the risk of being submerged as it is the most low-lying coastal
region.
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Tajikistan

The crisis of the cold winter of 2008 may rapidly become an ironic footnote to the more fundamental threat of climate change to the glaciers of Tajikistan.
Glacier melt contributes up to 20% of the run-off to local rivers which in turn are critical to Tajikistan's hydropower, agriculture (the major crop - cotton -
is particularly dependent on irrigation), and provision of safe drinking water. The major glaciers are reported to be retreating by about 20 metres each
year and the implications for integrated water management are uncertain. The MDG to provide 74% of rural Tajikistan with safe drinking water is regarded
as unlikely to be achieved without very significant investment. Hopes that untapped hydropower could bring relief to rural households accustomed to
electricity for about 2 hours per day may founder on the unpredictable impact of climate change.

Unfortunately, conservation of depleted water resources is already an area of concern along the international boundaries of Central Asia where competition
for scarce irrigation canal water can result in ethnic conflict between groups. The sensitive ecology of freshwater does not recognise national boundaries
and there is an urgent need for Central Asian countries to work together to manage the fallout from global warming.
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Tanzania

The 2006 MDG Progress Report for Tanzania makes not a single mention of the impact of climate change on poverty
reduction plans. Yet the country's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in the following year offers
over 60 pages of alarming grounds for concern. Of greatest significance is the assessment that a 2 degree rise in
temperature could reduce yields of Tanzania's staple maize crop by as much as 33%. Diversifying into new crop varieties will
test impoverished farmers to the limit.

Tanzania is home to one of the great symbols of climate change - the melting icecap of Mount Kilimanjaro - which is
projected to lose its permanence by 2020. However the greater significance of the Kilimanjaro region is the impact of
temperature change on its sensitive forest ecosystem and the role that plays in the water cycle. Indeed water management
dominates the NAPA list of recommended adaptation projects - irrigation, conservation, harvesting and hydropower - all vital
Receding
in defending a rural economy which the World Food Programme describes as "highly susceptible to climatic shocks". glaciers of
Alongside concerns about expanding malaria risk, increased insect infestations, and pressure on the "rangelands" already
overused for livestock, it is clearly the poorest communities who will be hit hardest. It seems illogical to pump hundreds of Mount
millions of aid dollars into Tanzania's development agenda whilst climate change adaptation funds contemplate mere
fractions of these sums. Kilimanjaro
Thailand
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©Greenpeace
One disease that is getting the better of the health authorities is dengue fever. Whilst this problem is so far attributed more
International
to urban population growth than warming temperatures, the potential impact of climate change in Thailand has attracted relatively little debate. For
example, the Mekong River basin is central to the country’s agriculture and fisheries production but will be susceptible to changing rainfall patterns as well
as the melting Himalayan glaciers. The worst floods in 100 years were experienced in the Mekong region in 2008.

The global food crisis has thrust Thailand into the limelight as the world’s largest exporter of rice. To the extent that the crop is already grown at the limits
of its potential yield, the prospect of climate change must be a concern. Bangkok itself is in the front line against the threat of rising sea levels – each year
the City sinks by several centimetres whilst the adjacent coastline retreats by 5-20 metres. The risk of storm surges also rises with temperature. The
tsunami tragedy of 2004 demonstrated how the clearance of about half of Thailand’s natural protection of mangrove forests along the coastline has
removed a crucial defence against the ocean.
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Uganda

The Uganda Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) published at the end of 2007 states unequivocally that “Uganda’s agriculture is subsistent, rain-fed
and, therefore, vulnerable to climate variability and climate change”. For example, a UNEP study concluded that a 2 degree rise in temperature would
make it almost impossible to grow coffee beans, a commodity on which 5 million people are dependent directly or indirectly.

The NAPA presents extensive evidence that the predictions of climate change science are already occurring in Uganda, particularly in the frequency of
drought and intensity of rainfall. In 2007 the east of the country experienced the heaviest rainfall in 35 years with 82,000 homes damaged by floods.
Damage to soil caused by flooding is aggravated by the unusually high rate of deforestation, which is the inevitable result of near universal dependence on
wood or charcoal for fuel in rural households. Reforestation is therefore identified as the highest priority for Uganda’s adaptation programme.

Health issues are also exposed to climate change. Malaria is already the main cause of death and illness in Uganda and is reported to have spread recently
to the traditionally cooler highlands in the southeast where people have no natural immunity. The glaciers of the Rwenzori mountains have retreated by
about 40% since 1955, threatening the stability of the water cycle.

These melting glaciers could even undermine Uganda’s most positive economic development – the discovery of oil reserves in the Semliki river basin along
the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Flush with meltwater, the stronger flow of the Semliki has altered parts of its course by erosion,
potentially enabling the DRC to claim land on which oil could be extracted. Demarcation of the border is currently the subject of negotiation.

Climate change is also partially responsible for constrained growth in non-food sectors of the economy. Drought and over-extraction havereduced the level
of Lake Victoria to its lowest for over 60 years. Hydropower driven from the Lake has fallen below 50% of capacity, creating serious energy shortages
which have forced many manufacturers to cut jobs or raise prices.
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Uzbekistan

Climate change injects a further uncertainty for water management which is a high priority for Uzbekistan, and the region as
a whole, to minimize the risks for violent conflict and environmental degradation.
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Vietnam

A 2007 UNDP case study stated that climate change represents “a very real threat to Vietnam’s continued socio-economic
development” with the poorest communities most at risk. Vietnam has been identified as one of five countries most
vulnerable to rising sea levels which will impact the low-lying Mekong Delta. A one metre rise could displace a significant
proportion of the 25% of the population that lives in the coastal region, destroying agriculture and fishing livelihoods. And
predictions of changing rainfall patterns and more extreme weather events impinge on sensitive rice yields.
Floating
The case study warns that awareness of the implications of climate change is contained within a small group of experts in
Vietnam, that there is no national adaptation strategy and that government bodies will require greater coordination. By fishing village
contrast, the country has long experience in disaster management which could provide a basis for action. For example, the
restoration of lost mangrove plantations and better maintenance of thousands of existing dykes are relatively straightforward
in Halong Bay,
steps. An exceptionally severe typhoon season in 2007, with extensive loss of life, the worst flooding for 50 years and
damage valued at $725 million, may catalyse a more concerted response.
Vietnam ©
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Poel
Zambia

Zambia is among those countries where food security is marginal and therefore highly vulnerable to climate change. The country is responsible for a
miniscule 0.006% of global carbon dioxide emissions but a 2007 report by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) says that climate change will hit Zambia
particularly hard. The government's National Adaptation Programme of Action published in 2007 says that "drought and floods have increased in
frequency, intensity and magnitude over the last two decades and have adversely impacted on food and water insecurity" - access to safe drinking water
in rural areas is only 37%. Severe flooding at the end of 2006 and again in 2007 has been blamed by a minister on climate change.
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