Elisha Lee and Sory Park

Mr. Collins

AP Statistics

7 June 2018

The Presidential Elections

1. Introduction

In South Korea, there is a multi-party system. The main political parties are the Democratic Party

of Korea (DP), which is under President Moon Jae-in, and the Liberty Korean Party. The DP is a

centrist-liberal party that supports human rights, a healthy relationship with North Korea, and the

economic policy “new progressivism,” which is based on socialism and democracy. On the other

hand, the Liberty Korea Party promotes fiscal responsibility, a market-based economy, and

caution with North Korea related activities. Cheongna, also known as “Cheongna International

City,” is studied to determine whether it is more open to changes than other cities. Since it is

“international,” it is hypothesized that there would be more advocates of the Liberty Korean

Party than the DP. This study establishes the population as Incheon, and the sample as the

Western District, Yeonsu, and Ongjin.

2. Data Collection

Two districts from Incheon were selected: Yeonsu and Ongjin. Yeonsu, located in southern

Incheon, is a center of technology as it is situated near China, Russia, North Korea, and

Southeast Asia, and it has built Songdo New Floating City. It is composed of six legal divisions

and twelve administrative divisions. It has currency one election district, but it may increase to
two if its population increases. Songdo, another so-called international city, is located in Yeonsu

District. In July 2014, the population was reported to be 307,000. Ongjin, a county in Incheon

Metropolitan City, has seven administrative divisions. It has a population of 19,993, and it has

the largest elderly population (over 65), 21.8%, in Incheon as of 2013.

The image above shows the candidates and approval ratings, based on increasing age (20s to 70s)

of the entire population. The dark blue represents the percentage of people who voted for Moon

Jae-in, and the red color is the percentage of those who voted for Hong Jun-pyo. This is a census,

so no particular type of sampling method or experiment is used. On the account of credibility,

data was gathered from the government-sponsored National Election Commision homepage.

3. Data Analysis
As shown in the graphical display above, the percentage of people over 60 who voted for Hong

Joon-pyo (the LKP) is greater than those who voted for Moon Jae-in. Near half of the younger

generation voted for Moon Jae-in.

Hypothesis Test #1

Conditions:

● Normality ✓
︿ ︿
○ n1 pc ≥ 10, n1 (1 − pc) ≥ 10

306672(0.423916) ≥ 10
︿ ︿
○ n2 pc ≥ 10, n2 (1 − pc) ≥ 10

208175(0.423916) ≥ 10

n is the number of voters from each district

p is the proportion of people who voted for Moon Jae-in

q is the proportion of people who voted for candidates other than Moon Jae-in

● The sample size is greater than 30. ✓

● Samples are randomly selected and are independent from one another. ✓

● Original populations are relatively larger than the sample sizes. ✓

H 0 : p1 = p2 , where p1 is the proportion of people in the W estern District who voted f or

H A : p1 =/ p2 M oon Jae − in and p2 is the proportion of people in the Y eonsu District who

v oted f or M oon Jae − in

The null hypothesis was set as p1 = p2 because because since Cheongna and Songdo are

known as international cities, their approval ratings for Moon Jae-in may be similar.

132399 85853
p1 = 306672
= 0.431728, p2 = 208175
= 0.412408
︿ 132399 + 85853
pc = 306672 + 208175
= 0.423916

p1 − p2 0.431728 − 0.412408
z = ︿ ︿ = 13.7669
pc(1−pc)( n1 + n1 )
√ 1 2 √ 1 + 1 )
0.423916(1−0.423916)( 306672 208175

pV al = 4.178 × 10−43

With this small a p-value, there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis, that is, there is

sufficient evidence of a significant difference in the proportions of people who vote for Moon

Jae-in in the two districts.

Hypothesis Test #2

Conditions:

● Normality ✓
︿ ︿
○ n1 pc ≥ 10, n1 (1 − pc) ≥ 10

306672(0.423916) ≥ 10
︿ ︿
○ n2 pc ≥ 10, n2 (1 − pc) ≥ 10

14747(0.423916) ≥ 10

n is the number of voters from each district

p is the proportion of people who voted for Moon Jae-in

 q is the proportion of people who voted for candidates other than Moon Jae-in

● The sample size is greater than 30. ✓

● Samples are randomly selected and are independent from one another. ✓

● Original populations are relatively larger than the sample sizes. ✓

H 0 : p2 = p3 , where p2 is the proportion of people in the W estern District who voted f or

H A : p2 > p3 M oon Jae − in, and p3 is the proportion of people in the Ongjin County

who voted f or M oon Jae − in

132399 3935
p1 = 306672
= 0.431728, p2 = 14747
= 0.266834
︿ 132399 + 3935
pc = 306672 + 14747
= 0.424163

p1 − p2 0.431728 − 0.266834
z = ︿ ︿ = 39.577
pc(1−pc)( n1 + n1 )
√ 1 2 √0.424163(1−0.424163)( 1 1
306672 + 14747 )

pV al = 8.7984 × 10−343

With this small a p-value, there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis, that is, there is

sufficient evidence that the proportion of people in the Western District who voted for Moon

Jae-in is greater than the proportion of people in Ongjin County who voted for Moon Jae-in.

Hypothesis Test 3

Conditions:

● Normality ✓
 ︿ ︿
○ n1 pc ≥ 10, n1 (1 − pc) ≥ 10

208175(0.402778) ≥ 10
︿ ︿
○ n2 pc ≥ 10, n2 (1 − pc) ≥ 10

14747(0.402778) ≥ 10

n is the number of voters from each district

p is the proportion of people who voted for Moon Jae-in

q is the proportion of people who voted for candidates other than Moon Jae-in

● The sample size is greater than 30. ✓

● Samples are randomly selected and are independent from one another. ✓

● Original populations are relatively larger than the sample sizes. ✓

H 0 : p2 = p3 , where p2 is the proportion of people in Y eonsu District who voted f or

H A : p2 > p3 M oon Jae − in, and p3 is the proportion of people in Ongjin County

who voted f or M oon Jae − in

85853 3935
p1 = 208175
= 0.412408, p2 = 14747
= 0.266834
︿ 85853 + 3935
pc = 208175 + 14747
= 0.402778

p1 − p2 0.412408 − 0.266834
z = ︿ ︿ = 34.8315
pc(1−pc)( n1 + n1 )
√ 1 2 √0.402778(1−0.402778)( 1 1
208175 + 0.266834 )

pV al = 4.66783 × 10−266
With this small a p-value, there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis, that is, there is

sufficient evidence that the proportion of people in Yonsu District who voted for Moon Jae-in to

be greater than the proportion of people in Ongjin County who voted for Moon Jae-in.

4. Conclusions

In hypothesis test one, p1 , the proportion of people who voted for Moon Jae-in in the Western

District) and p2 , the proportion of people who voted for Moon Jae-in in the Yeonsu District

proved to be different from one another. Just because these districts are part of an “international

city,” does not mean that the cities will have similar results for the presidential election. The

p-value is significantly small that there is a low probability that both districts will have equal

proportions. However, the hypothesis tests two and three show that both p1 and p2 are higher

than p3 , the proportion people voted for Moon Jae-in in Ongjin County. Cheongna and Songdo,

despite being international cities, are more supportive of the President Moon Jae-in than Ongjin.

There are other cities that are not referred to as “international cities” but that may have the

characteristics of an international city. If these were included, there may be better results. For

instance, Yeongdeungpo-gu in Seoul and Danwon-gu in Ansan are districts with a high

proportion of non-Korean citizens. Also, since Yeonsu, Ongjin, and Western District are all in

Incheon, any results obtained may apply only to Incheon. The project could have been improved

if a random sample of people from each district would be asked to express their political

opinions. Some people might vote for reasons that are not associated with the party and its ideas.

For instance, a particular family might vote for a president from a particular party merely to keep

the family traditions. In order to understand more about the standards of an international city,
other districts that are not necessarily international could be used for comparison. Organizing a

study regarding the presidential elections is a challenge primarily due to response bias: people lie

about their opinions.

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