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Email: vginn@texaspolicy.com
Website: www.texaspolicy.com
Twitter: @vanceginn
Outline
Information on Texas’ economy, labor market, and
fiscal situation.
Economic Freedom of North America (2017) 11th (World) 2nd 2nd 49th 50th
State Business Tax Climate Index (2017) -- 13th 4th 48th 49th
State-Local Tax Burden (2016) -- 46th 34th 6th 1st
Avg. U-3 Unemployment Rate (2000-17) 6.4% 5.8% 6.3% 7.7% 6.2%
Avg. U-6 Underutilization Rate (2003-17) 11.6% 10.5% 12.0% 14.3% 11.1%
Avg. Labor Force Participation Rate (2000-17) 65.0% 66.1% 61.7% 64.6% 62.1%
Avg. Employment-Population Ratio (2000-17) 61.0% 62.3% 58.0% 59.9% 58.3%
Avg. Emp-Pop 25-54 year old Ratio (2000-17) 77.6% 77.3% 77.5% 75.2% 76.1%
Total Civilian Emp (12/07-12/17), exclude TX +5,723,000 +2,024,000 +979,000 +1,564,000 +132,000
Total Nonfarm Emp (12/07-12/17), exclude TX +7,424,000 +1,790,000 +728,000 +1,523,000 +804,000
Avg. Top 10% Income Shares (2000-15) 47.8% 47.0% 55.0% 50.2% 57.1%
Supplemental Poverty Measure (2014-16) 14.7% 14.7% 18.7% 20.4% 16.0%
66%
9%
64%
7%
62%
5%
60%
56% 1%
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
8,000,000
6,500,000 U.S. MINUS TEXAS:
+7,000,000
5,000,000
TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT
3,500,000
2,000,000
500,000 TEXAS:
+2,201,000
-1,000,000
-2,500,000 U.S. minus Texas civilian
-4,000,000 employment wasn’t
positive until January 2015
-5,500,000
and didn’t surpass Texas
-7,000,000 until November 2015.
-8,500,000
N
12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016 12/2017
5,000,000
TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
3,500,000
2,000,000
500,000 TEXAS:
+1,980,000
-1,000,000
-2,500,000
U.S. minus Texas nonfarm
-4,000,000 employment wasn’t
-5,500,000 positive until September
2014 and didn’t surpass
-7,000,000
Texas until March 2015.
N
-8,500,000
12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016 12/2017
3% 3%
ANNUAL NONFARM JOB GROWTH RATE
1% 1%
-2% -2%
-8% -8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MAY 2018
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
7% 7%
5% 5%
3% 3%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Dallas Fed, Texas Economy Starts 2018 Firing on All Cylinders
Texas’ Labor Force Participation Rate
Remains Above Others Since 2009
68%
MAY 2018 68%
U.S.: 62.7% CA: 62.0%
TX: 63.9% FL: 59.4%
NY: 60.5%
66% 66%
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
64% 64%
62% 62%
60% 60%
58% 58%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
64%
May 2018 64%
U.S.: 60.4% CA: 59.4%
TX: 61.3% FL: 57.1%
EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO
60% 60%
58% 58%
56% 56%
54% 54%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE 2003-17
U.S.: 77.6% CA: 75.2%
Employment Population Ratio: 25-54 Years
80% 80%
TX: 77.3% FL: 77.5%
NY: 76.1%
78% 78%
76% 76%
74% 74%
72% 72%
70% 70%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE FROM
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
Diversified Texas Economy Continues
Creating Jobs in Most Sectors
55% 55%
50% 50%
45% 45%
40% 40%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Mark Frank, Sam Houston State University
Texas Economic Challenges
Mining industry 1980s:
21% of real private economy; 5% of labor force
Mining industry today:
~10% of real private economy; ~2% of labor force
More diversification from market activity, NAFTA,
pro-growth policies
Still, slower global growth & federal government
policies may be impediments, like trade & debt
But federal cuts in taxes and regulation boost
growth
4 million barrels of oil/day is highest
since at least 1981
$167 $177
$170
$160 $168 THE BUDGET COULD BE $16 BILLION LESS
UNDER TPPF'S REFORMS, SAVING FAMILIES
$158 OF FOUR ABOUT $2,000 PER YEAR.
$150
$139
$140 $146
$130 $124 $135
$120
2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19*
Source: Legislative Budget Board's Fiscal Size-Up and authors' calculations. *indicates
Note: Find explanation here.
*Includes delayed $1.8 billion Proposition 7 transportation payment
Note: Find explanation here.
2018-19 Total Approps: $218.4 B
with $1.8 B transportation fund delay
(4.46% increase)
$58.5 B,
$71.8 B, Other $79.5 B,
Federal Health &
Funds $106.6 B, Human
General Services
Revenue
Email: vginn@texaspolicy.com
Website: www.texaspolicy.com
Twitter: @vanceginn