Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142

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Environmental Science & Policy

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci

A flood risk decision making approach for Mediterranean tree crops

using GIS; climate change effects and flood-tolerant species
Nektarios N. Kourgialasa,b,* , George P. Karatzasa
a
School of Environmental Engineering—Technical University of Crete, Polytechneioupolis, 73100 Chania, Greece
b
Hellenic Agricultural Organization—DIMITRA, National Agricultural Research Foundation (N.AG.RE.F.)—Institute for Olive Tree, Subtropical Crops and
Viticulture, Agrokipio, 73100 Chania, Greece

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Article history:
Received 16 March 2016 The aim of this study is to estimate flood risk in the Mediterranean island of Crete in Greece, using
Received in revised form 27 May 2016 Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The island of Crete, covering an area of 8265 km2, is one of the
Accepted 27 May 2016 most intensively Mediterranean agricultural areas dominated by fruit tree crops. In this study, the factors
Available online 6 June 2016 that are directly related to the creation of a flood are combined in a GIS environment in order to identify
the most prone flooding areas. These factors are: (a) the Flow accumulation (F), (b) the Rainfall intensity
Keywords: (R), (c) the Elevation (E), (d) the Geology (G), (e) the Land use (L), and (f) the Slope (S). The initials of these
Flood risk assessment factors gave the name to the proposed method: “FREGLS”. The above factors are presented in the form of
Crete
grid maps and are used in order to determine the final flood risk map. Subsequently, the flood prone fruit
GIS
tree areas of Crete can be estimated by applying a methodology based on weighting coefficients. The
Fruit tree areas
Climate change reliability of the final flood risk map is verified using historical flooded data. Additionally, the impact of
Flood-tolerant fruit trees global climate change scenarios A2 and B1, on flood risk in Crete is examined. Based on the above, this
study highlights the flood prone fruit tree areas in the island of Crete under current and future climate
conditions. Also, flood-tolerant fruit trees which appear to be economically important for Greece are
recommended, especially for the high flood risk areas of the island. The proposed methodology can be
applied as a decision making tool for flood risk mitigation to any river basin where tree crops are
cultivated.
ã 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Flooding has always been a real danger not only for lowland and
semi-mountainous areas but also for mountainous plains (pla-
teaus). Generally, most vulnerable to floods are low-lying areas and
adjacent to rivers and streams. The risk of flooding in a particular
area is mainly attributable to torrential nature of rainfall.
Moreover, under the pressure of the population growth the
continued expansion of building construction in the coastal zone,
have engendered conditions of immediate cause of flooding
(Thieken et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2011; Morelli et al., 2014).
The main types of flooding that can occur in an area are: river
floods, flash floods, urban floods, sewer flooding and coastal
flooding. Especially, in small river basins with high slopes and low
permeability geological formations intense rainfall can cause flash
* Corresponding author at: School of Environmental Engineering—Technical
University of Crete, Polytechneioupolis, 73100 Chania, Greece.
E-mail addresses: nektarios.kourgialas@enveng.tuc.gr,
kourgialas@nagref-cha.gr (N.N. Kourgialas).
flood events, which due to their short-time flow concentration, are
difficult to be predicted and treated (Camarasa Belmonte and
Segura Beltran, 2001; Kourgialas et al., 2011). In addition, flash
floods are very common in mountainous areas where rapid
snowmelt or heavy rainfalls are quickly transformed into runoff.
These events, due to the high capacity of transport, can be
characterized as the most serious weather-related hazards in many
mountain plateaus all around the world, causing considerable
economic losses (Ballesteros et al., 2011).
In the Mediterranean area, and especial in Crete, where small
river basins and ephemeral streams are common, rainfall and
runoff processes often lead to the generation of flash floods. These
events happen suddenly with a minimal warning, causing
significant economic damages. Specifically, flash flood waves
move at very high speeds and could have a height from few
centimeters to few meters (Archer, 1992). These characteristics of
flood waves can destroy structures and tear out trees causing
serious damages. These losses can be economically important
especially in an intensive agricultural area such as the island of

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.05.020
1462-9011/ã 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142
Crete, one of the most notable horticultural regions of the
Mediterranean zone with significant areas of fruit trees.
Floods in Crete are a relatively frequent phenomenon and it has
become more intense over the last decades (Kourgialas et al.,
2010). Various climate models for the region of Crete predict a
gradual increase in rainfall intensity for the coming decades, which
may increase the risk of flash floods (Nikolaidis et al., 2013;
Kourgialas et al., 2015). Moreover, the strong orographic effect in
Crete with a non-uniform spatial distribution of precipitation
generates at specific regions of the island an intensive spatial
variability of precipitation both in frequency and intensity. Taking
into account the above, the generation of flood risk map for the
island of Crete under current and future climate conditions
certainly is a challenging task.
In order to minimize the negative effects of floods, flood risk
maps and mitigation plans must be developed, taking into account
the geomorphological and hydrological conditions dominating in
regions of potential flood risk (Liu et al., 2003; Chatterjee et al.,
2008; Prime et al., 2016). Several models, presented in the past, can
estimate potential flood risk areas for different scenarios using
various numerical approaches to simulate flow and flood inunda-
tion (Brocca et al., 2011). However, for ungauged and/or extended
areas where hydrological – hydraulic simulation is expensive or/
and time-consuming a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) in a GIS
environment can be an essential tool. Floods are multidimensional
phenomena with a spatial dimension, which makes GIS particu-
larly useful in such applications (Zerger, 2002; Wang et al., 2011).
Many MCA flood risk studies in GIS environment have been
performed worldwide, especially in the last fifteen years (Liu et al.,
2003; Van Der Veen and Logtmeijer, 2005; Kourgialas and
Karatzas, 2011; Chau et al., 2013; Papaioannou et al., 2015; Kazakis
et al., 2015)
The combination of geoinformation techniques with multi-
criteria analysis (MCA) allows greater flexibility and accuracy in
decisions with regard to the designation and the analysis of
vulnerable to flooding areas (Makropoulos and Butler, 2006;
Chenini et al., 2010). Specifically, in GIS databases analytical/
numerical tool and mathematical relationships among different
layers of maps can be combined to a decision support system
yielding a flood risk map. For an effective decision support system
several criteria need to be evaluated which can be combined and
create the final flood risk map. However, the main problem in MCA
is that the factors as well as their weights are subject to the
judgment of the decision-maker.
In this study, in order to face this challenge we combined the
literature with a Delphi approach and, historical flood events to
validate the final results. Another aim of this study was the
development of a flood risk map for the island of Crete taking into
account all the particular hydrogeological characteristics of the
island. Moreover, the flood prone fruit tree areas, based on current
and future climate conditions, were determined. Specifically, the
effects of the higher and lower emission climate change scenarios
A2 and B1 in flood risk fruit tree areas were investigated. Also, this
study highlights the tolerance to flooding of the existing fruit trees
of Crete, suggesting new economically effective and flood tolerance
fruit tree species that are recommended for high flood risk areas.
The proposed methodology can be used as a flood decision making
tool to any agricultural river basin.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Crete is the fifth largest island in the Mediterranean Sea and the
largest in Greece, covering an area of about 8265 km2. The western
part Crete includes Chania, and Rethymnon prefectures, while the
133
eastern includes the prefectures of Heraklion and Lassithi. The
elevations in Crete range from zero to 2456 m MSL. In Crete
lowlands (<200 m) cover an area of 2165 km2, 26% of the total area,
semi-mountainous areas (200–800 m) cover an area of 4627 km2
which is 56% of the total area, while the mountainous area
(>800 m) is approximately equally to 1473 km2 which is 18% of the
total area. The study area is one of the most important horticultural
regions of the Mediterranean zone; mainly, dominated by fruit tree
cultivation such as olive, citrus, vineyard and avocado (Fig. 1a).
Specifically, fruit tree cultivation in Crete reaches up to 32%
(2608 km2) of the total area. Pasture, natural vegetation and forests
cover 56% (4600 km2), annual crops cover about 11% (950 km2),
while artificial structures (urban areas) are about 1% (107 km2).
Also, Omalos and Lassithi plateaus are the largest mountainous
plains of Crete, which are both cultivated with fruit trees and
annual crops (Fig. 1a). In these areas as the agriculture has become
more intensive a proper flood management plan is a challenge. The
island of Crete is separated into 120 different river basins (Fig. 1b)
and is characterized by a complex geological structure that consists
of limestones, impermeable formations, and flysch formations
(Water Resources Department of the Prefecture of Crete, 2014).
Annual rainfall reaches up to 700 mm/year in low areas, 1000 mm/
year in semi-mountainous areas, and 2000 mm/year in mountain-
ous areas. Due to the complex vertical and horizontal topography
of the island significant climatologically differences occur. Thus,
the western part of the island receives higher amounts of
precipitation compared to the eastern part. Generally, about 65%
of the total precipitation in the island is lost in form of
evapotranspiration while 21% is converted to runoff and the rest
of 14% recharges the groundwater.
2.2. Methodology
In order to estimate spatial variability of flood risk in the island
of Crete five different flood Risk Levels (RL) were considered (very
high, high, moderate, low and very low). Specifically, the proposed
RL are described as the probability of a flood event to occur within a
hydrological year. Very high flood risk level indicates areas with 2%
probability of a flood event to occur within a hydrological year (50-
year return period). High flood risk level indicates 1% probability
(100-year return period). Moderate flood risk level indicates 0.5%
probability (200-year return period). Low flood risk level indicates
0.2% probability (500-year return period) and very low flood risk
level indicates lower than 0.2% probability (>500-year return
period).
This classification is performed by considering the factors that
influence the generation of flood events. The final map of flood risk
was created using the combination of six different thematic maps –
factors, which are directly related to flooding events. This
combination was achieved based on a linear algebraic function
assigning relative weights to each factor. Analytically, estimating
the final flood risk map, six different thematic map-factors such as
Flow accumulation (F), Rainfall intensity (R), Elevation (E), Geology
(G), Land use (L), and Slope (S) were created within ArcGIS
environment.
The (F), (S), (E), and (R) factors have numeric values, whereas
the (G) and (L) factors are expressed in descriptive form. The effect
of each factor is mapped as five different flood Risk Levels (RL) as
following: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. For
numeric-valued factors the Jenk’s Natural Breaks method was used
for indicating the five different flood risk classes. In the case of non-
numeric-valued factors classification depends mainly on the
influence of the factor on the recharging flood process. For
example, impermeable geological areas as well as limited land
cover indicates a very high flood risk for (G) and (L) factors,
respectively. Next, for each of the proposed factors rating of the
134 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142
Fig. 1. (a) Land uses, rainfall stations, and plateaus in Crete, (b) River basins in Crete.
flood Risk Levels (RL) a numerical value is assigned as follows: very
high (RL) = 10, high (RL) = 8, moderate (RL) = 5, low (RL) = 2, very
low (RL) = 1.
Considering that all the studied factors do not have the same
degree of influence on flood generation, a correlation analysis with
different weights for each factor was applied. This analysis
considers the effect of each factor on all other factors. Thus, two
kinds of effects are employed: (a) major effect, that is, a change of
the first factor bears a direct effect on the other [assigned (1) point]
and (b) a minor effect, that is, the change of the first factor bears an
indirect effect on the other factor [assigned (1/2) point]. The rate
for each factor is calculated as the summation of the points of
major and minor effects. These rates are presented in Table 1.
The selection of the above mentioned factors as well as the
flood Risk Levels (RL) and the Factors Rates (FR) were based on the
literature and the Delphi approach (Eimers et al., 2000; Yahaya
et al., 2010; Kourgialas and Karatzas, 2011; Kazakis et al., 2015).
Specifically, according to literature surveys the aforementioned six
factors can capture the necessary information improving the
decision-making utility for flood risk modelling (Zerger, 2002).
Additionally, in complex hydrogeological regions/systems, such as
the Mediterranean area, hydro-environmental researches based on
expert judgments can improve the accurate estimation of
numerical parameters and/or logical functions which in turn
Table 1
Interaction between factors that influence the flood risk [Factors Rates (FR)].
Factor Changing Major Effect
Flow accumulation (F) (L)
Slope (S) (F), (L)
Land use (L) (F), (R)
Rainfall intensity (R) (F)
Geology (G) (L), (S), (F)
Elevation (E) (R), (L), (G), (F)
capture the physical responses of those systems in modelling
approaches (Pshenichny et al., 2009). Taking into consideration the
above, Delphi process was used to quantify and collect the opinions
of hydrogeologists, hydro-agronomists, and environmentalist
experts, from different organizations on the island of Crete
(Ministry of Agriculture, Technical University and Technological
Educational Institute, Institute for Olive Tree – Subtropical Crops
and Viticulture, Water Resources Department of the Prefecture of
Crete, and Hellenic Agricultural Insurance Organization). Specifi-
cally, in this study the Delphi method, which can be characterized
“as a method for structuring a group communication process so that
the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to
deal with a complex problem” (Linstone and Turoff, 2002), enabled:
(a) the confirmation that the six selected factors have the most
significant influence on flood risk assessment, (b) the identification
of the weights and rates of factors, taking into consideration the
interaction between factors.
The final percentage of each factor regarding its effect on the
flood risk occurrence is computed as the ratio of the total factor
weight (calculated by multiplied FR and RL) to the overall total
weight (i.e. the sum of all the six factors weights). Following,
according to the weighted linear combination approach, each
factor is multiplied by its percentage weight and all factors are
summed to yield the final flood risk map (FREGLS) for the island of
Minor Effect Factor Rate (FR)
(S) 1.5 pts (1major + 1minor)
2.0 pts (2major + 0minor)
(G), (S) 3.0 pts (2major + 2minor)
(L) 1.5 pts (1major + 1minor)
3.0 pts (3major + 0minor)
(S) 4.5 pts (4major + 1minor)
 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142 135

Crete using the following equation (Kourgialas and Karatzas,
2011):
X play a catalytic role in the runoff generation (Kourgialas et al.,
FREGLS ¼ xi wi ¼ FwF þ SwS þ LwL þ RwR þ GwG þ EwE ;
where:
xi = the map of each parameter i
wi = the weight of each parameter i
F = Flow accumulation factor, S = Slope factor, L = Land use factor
R = Rainfall intensity factor, G = Geology factor, E = Elevation factor.
All the above mentioned factors were georeferenced to the
Greek Coordinate System EGSA’87 (EPSG Projection 2100).
Geometric resolution of the produced raster maps equal to
20  20 m2. Geoinformatic and filed measurement techniques
were used to determine and digitalize the aforementioned
thematic maps/factors. Analytically, topographic maps (1:5000)
were used in order to create the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) –
(spatial resolution of 20  20 m, vertical accuracy equal to 5 m) of
the study area. Using DEM, in GIS environment, slope map was
produced applying a 3D Analyst tool. Topographic parameters such
as slope and elevation are inversely proportional to the appearance
of floods (Kourgialas and Karatzas, 2011), (Table 2).
In addition, remote sensing methods (satellite images) and the
traditional field explorative geological mapping were used to
determine the land use map and the geological map for the Island
of Crete, respectively. Land use factor is associated directly with the
vegetation cover that controls both the amount of precipitation
and the time that it takes to reach the soil surface contributing to
surface runoff. Thus, dense vegetation cover can reduce the flood
risk, while burned areas, without vegetation, can lead to increased
surface runoff and greater risk to flooding (Kazakis et al., 2015),
(Table 2). Geology formations through which the water flows can
ð1Þ; 2011). The larger the grain size and the more fractures (karst
structure) the lower overland flow. On the other hand, imperma-
nent geological formations can lead to high runoff rates increasing
in turn the flood risk (Table 2).
In addition, using the appropriate algorithm in GIS environment
(flow accumulation – Arc Hydro) the flow accumulation map was
generated (ESRI, 2008). This map indicates the number of cells that
hydrologically contribute to each raster cell, where the higher the
accumulation of runoff in a pixel-cell, the greater the flood risk
(Table 2).
In order to determine the Rainfall intensity (R) factor monthly
rainfall values from 86 rainfall stations, located on the island of
Crete and for the time period 1960–2014, were used (Water
Resources Department of the Prefecture of Crete, 2014). The spatial
distribution of these stations is shown in Fig. 1a. The map of
Rainfall intensity (R) was created based on the Modified Fournier
Index (Morgan, 2005):
X
12 2
p
MFI ¼ ; ð2Þ
1
P
where:
X
12
MFI: the Modified Fournier Index, : the 12-month summa-
1
tion, p: the average monthly rainfall, and P: the average annual
rainfall.

Table 2
Categorization—calibration and weight evaluation of the factors affecting flood risk areas on the island of Crete.

Factors Domain of effect Descriptive level (flood risk Proposed weight of Rate Weighted rating Total Percentage
level) effect (RL) (FR) (FR*RL) weight (%)
(F) 128.590–220.071 Very High 10 1.5 15 39 9.68
Flow accumulation 64.727–128.590 High 8 12
(pixels) 27.617–64.727 Moderate 5 7.5
6.041–27.617 Low 2 3
0–6.041 Very Low 1 1.5
(S) 0–7.56 Very High 10 2 20 52 12.90
Slope (degree) 7.56–14.83 High 8 16
14.83–23.00 Moderate 5 10
23.00–33.28 Low 2 4
33.28–77.16 Very Low 1 2
(L) Urban & bare area Very High 10 3 30 78 19.35
Land use Scrub, herbaceous, annual High 8 24
crops,
Permanent crops, Fruit Moderate 5 15
trees
Agro-forestry areas, Low 2 6
Pastures
Mixed forest Very Low 1 3
(R) 554–838 Very High 10 1.5 15 39 9.68
Rainfall intensity 377–554 High 8 12
(MFI units) 244–377 Moderate 5 7.5
151–244 Low 2 3
0–151 Very Low 1 1.5
(G) Impermeable layer & Very High 10 3 30 78 19.35
Geology flysch
Clays High 8 24
Sands & fine grain content Moderate 5 15
Gravels & conglomerates Low 2 6
Karstic area & limestones Very Low 1 3
(E) 0–263 Very High 10 4.5 45 117 29.03
Elevation (m) 263–547 High 8 36
547–930 Moderate 5 22.5
930–1.465 Low 2 9
1.465–2.458 Very Low 1 4.5
SUM 403 100
136 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142
The MFI indicator expresses the sum of the average monthly
rainfall intensity at a station. The MFI value of each station was
interpolated at the GIS environment using the deterministic
technique of spline method. This method was selected based on
various studies which indicate that the spline method is the best
method for representing smoothly varying surfaces of phenomena
such as rainfall and the most appropriate method for cases with a
small number of data points, as our case (Goovaerts, 2000; Lloyd,
2005). The monthly data used to estimate the rainfall intensity is
not always applicable for flood risk analysis. Nevertheless, taking
into consideration: (a) the large number of meteorological stations
in the study area, as well as the extended time period of data- 55
years, (b) the seasonal character of the rainfall threshold level
which can generate overbank flows in the Mediterranean region,
where ephemeral streams and flash floods are common (Camarasa
Belmonte and Segura Beltran, 2001), and (c) the fact that the
proposed method does not require exact values for this factor but
classifies it into five categories of risk, the monthly data could be
Fig. 2. Flood risk maps for factors: (a) flow accumulation, (b) slope, and (c) land use.
considered as an acceptable estimation method for rainfall
intensity in the Mediterranean environment.
In this study the climate change effect in flood prone areas for
the island of Crete was investigated based on the global emission
scenarios A2 and B1 for the year 2050. Choosing this short
prediction time the uncertainty of the final results was minimized.
Analytically, based on different Global Climate Models (Echam5,
IPSL and CNRM) that were applied in the study area (Tsanis et al.,
2011; Kourgialas et al., 2015), prediction of the average annual
precipitation for the island of Crete indicate a small decrease of 2%
for scenario A2 and 1% for scenario B1. In the present work, was
chosen to simulate the higher and lower emission climate change
scenarios A2 and B1 in order to capture their potential effects on
flood risk areas. According to IPCC Third Assessment Report, these
two extreme future climate change scenarios (A2 and B1), can be
termed as following: A2 scenario indicates “a weakly globalized
world with continuously increasing population. Economic develop-
ment is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth
 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142
and technological change more fragmented and slower”. B1 scenario
indicates “a confluent world that promotes sustainable development
on a global scale, rapidly shifting towards a service and information
economy based on clean and resource-efficient technologies”. These
scenarios were considered to affect rainfall intensity uniformly
over the island.
Daily synthetic data for climate change scenarios A2 and B1
were generated using perturbed statistical characteristics of the
observed data at each rainfall station. Next, in the GIS environment
the maps of Rainfall Intensity (R) factor under climate change
scenarios A2 and B1 for the year 2050 were generated. These maps,
in turn, were combined with Eq. (1) in order to determine the flood
risk areas under these future climatic conditions. Emphasis was
given to the determination of the fruit tree areas located at very
high and high flood risk level. Taking into consideration that these
cultivations offer significant economic benefits to the local
communities it is very crucial to investigate the tolerance of these
species to flooding. Also it is very important to recommend flood-
Fig. 3. Flood risk maps for factors: (d) rainfall intensity, (e) geology, and (f) elevation.
137
tolerate and economically important fruit trees suitable for
cultivation in the very high flood risk areas of Crete.
3. Results and discussion
Based on this final map the fruit tree areas at high flood risk can
be determined. Table 2 presents the classification of the six factors
into risk levels, the proposed rating for each risk level, expressed in
points, as well as the rates for the factors. Additionally, the
summation of all the factor weights yields the grand total weight
and the contribution of each factor to the flood risk, expressed as a
percentage (Table 2). The six maps that were developed with the
classification method are presented in Figs. 2 and 3. Using Eq. (1),
the final map of flood risk areas is generated by combining the
above mentioned factors (Fig. 4). The combination of the six maps
(flow accumulation, slope, land use, rainfall intensity, geology, and
elevation) applied in the proposed methodology aims to identify
the areas that are most prone to flooding on the island of Crete.
138 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142
Fig. 4. Final flood risk map for the island of Crete.
Consequently, Fig. 4 describes spatial distribution of flood risk in
each of the 120 river basins of the island of Crete. Based on these
figures, very high flood risk areas are distributed as much in the
western part of the island as in the eastern part. Additionally, flood
occurrence appears to be more intense in the lowlands of the
island. A characteristic example is the southern part of the
prefecture of Heraklion, where the final map describes an extended
very high flood risk area (Fig. 4). Specifically, this area (valley of
Messara) is an irrigated area that is cultivated intensively where
groundwater over-exploitation has led to a land subsidence which
in fact increases significantly the flood risk level (Xepapadeas,
1996; Paleologos et al., 2013).
3.1. Validation and final results
In order to verify the final flood risk map, a review of historical
flooding on the island of Crete (for the last 100 years) was
introduced (Diakakis et al., 2012; Water Resources Department of
the Prefecture of Crete, 2014). Specifically, in Fig. 5a and b the
locations of historical flooded points, occurred within a 50-year
return period, are marked with black symbols, while historical
flooded points occurred within a 100-year return period are
marked with green symbols. According to these figures, the
majority of the historical flooded points are located in the western
part of Crete in comparison with the eastern part. Additionally,
accordingly of the frequency of the total 125 recorded historical
flooded points 114 have 50-year return period, while the rest of
them have a 100-year return period. To validate the final results it
was necessary to convey the connection between historical
flooded points and flood risk areas. To achieve this, the “Extract
by Mask” tool in GIS environment was applied. Based on this tool,
the cells of the final flood risk map (raster file) that correspond to
the historical flooded points (mask data) were extracted. In this
way, the extracted flooded points were identified based on their
locations in the five different flood risk zones. Thus, the accurate
number of the flooded points that were located in each flood risk
area was defined. Based on the above, for the final flood risk map,
almost all the recorded historical floods with a 50-year return
period (111 points) took place at the very high flood risk areas with
only three of them to be in the areas of high flood risk. On the other
hand, all the recorded historical floods with a 100-year return
period (11 points) were located within the identified areas of high
flood risk.
The good agreement between historical flood events and the
final flood risk map appears to be not only at the low and semi-
mountainous lands but also at the two main intensively cultivated
mountain plateaus of Crete, Omalos and Lassithi (Fig. 5a and b). In
this way, the uniqueness of the proposed parameterization was
ensured, minimizing the uncertainty inherent in the simulation
results. All of the aforementioned information validate spatial
reliability of the proposed methodology for the study area.
According to the verified final flood risk map, an area of
1605 km2 (19.5%) in Crete is subject to very high flood risk and
2330 km2 (28.3%) is under high flood risk. In addition, 1915 km2
(23.2%), 1463 km2 (17.7%) and 931 km2 (11.3%) can be characterized
as areas of moderate, low and very low flood risk, respectively.
As mentioned above, the island of Crete is one of the most
important tree cultivation regions in the Mediterranean zone.
Based on the final flood risk map, 792 km2 (30.4%) of fruit tree areas
are located in very high flood risk areas. Furthermore, fruit tree
areas of about 1131 km2 (43.4%) are under high flood risk.
Additionally, 270 km2 (10.3%), and 415 km2 (15.9%) of the fruit
tree areas can be designated as areas of moderate, low or very low
flood risk, respectively. Thus, a significant percentage of 73.8% of
the fruit tree cultivation areas in Crete are under very high or high
flood risk. The above classification results and the flood risk maps
(including map coordinates) can be exported by local authorities
using GIS. Thus, maps of high flood risk areas with summary
information could be offered to the farmers to raise awareness.
Moreover, using the proposed methodology, at very high flood risk
areas of 792 Km2 economical effective and flood-tolerant fruit trees
species can be investigated and suggested. This task is analyzed in a
following section.
3.2. Climate change scenarios
For predicting flood prone areas in 2050 under socioeconomic
scenarios A2 and B1 all the factors of Eq. (1) except the rainfall
intensity (R) were kept constant. Fig. 6 illustrates the rainfall
intensity (R) results for the year 2050 under the scenarios A2 and
B1.
For scenario A2 the predicted flood risk results show that in
2050 the decrease of the expected precipitation gave a reduced
area of very high and low flood risk, while high, moderate, and very
low flood risk areas show a small increase, compared to the current
conditions (Table 3). For scenario B1 the predicted flood risk results
show that in 2050 the slight increase of the expected precipitation
gave an increase in all flood risk levels except the high and
moderate levels with comparison to the current conditions
(Table 3), (Fig. 7). In addition, regarding scenario A2 (higher
emission climate change scenario), fruit trees within the very high
flood risk areas are expected to decrease for the year 2050 as
compared to the current situation. Nevertheless, for 2050 and for
scenario A2 fruit trees within high flood risk areas are expected to
increase as compared to the present (Table 4). For scenario B1, very
high flood risk fruit tree areas will increase in the year 2050, while
 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142 139

Fig. 5. (a) Validation of the final flood risk map with historical flooded points (Western part of Crete) (b) Validation of the final flood risk map with historical flooded points
(Eastern part of Crete).

high flood risk fruit tree areas will significantly decrease, compared
to the baseline conditions (Table 4).
3.3. Flood-tolerant fruit trees, current species and prospects for the
island of Crete
In the present subsection some recommendations are pre-
sented for selecting flood-tolerant fruit tree corps suitable to very
high flood risk areas. During the past 30 years research has been
conducted on the effects of flooding on various fruit tree species
(Crane and Davies, 1989; Larson et al., 1993; Schaffer, 1998;
Schaffer et al., 2006). According to those studies, the primary effect
of flooding on tree crops physiology and growth is related to the
reduction of soil oxygen. The earliest detectable physiological
symptoms of flooding stress include decreased net CO2 assimila-
tion, stomatal conductance, and transpiration. Prolonged flooding
140 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142

Fig. 6. Rainfall intensity maps under scenarios A2 and B1.

usually results in a stoppage of root operation and tree growth, in a
decrease of nutrient uptake, and often causes tree death. In
addition, flood leads to a decreased flowering, yield and fruit
quality for several species of fruit trees. Different fruit tree species
have different flood tolerance depending on the growing season,
the duration and the magnitude of flooding as well as on the age of
the plants (Schaffer et al., 1992). Specifically, flooding during the
dormant season is much less harmful than during growing season.
In addition, some fruit trees are killed by less than one week of
flooding while some others can survive continuous flooding. On
the other hand, flash flooding with moving water may increase
growth of some flood-tolerant species. Furthermore, mature trees
tolerate flooding better than seedling or over-mature trees (Ismail
and Noor, 1996).
Generally, flood-tolerant species could be characterized as the
fruit trees that could survive under excessively wet (high water
table) and flooded conditions that last from several days to a few
weeks. Moderately flood-tolerant trees could be characterized as
the species that could survive for several days of excessively wet or
flooded soil conditions. However, the stress of wet conditions may
reduce tree growth and fruit production, while root disease may
result in tree damage or death. Finally, not flood-tolerant trees
could be characterized those trees that are not tolerant to wet or
flooded soil conditions. These trees may bear heavy damage after
few days of wet soil conditions (Schaffer et al., 1992).
A very important task of this study was to review the existing
literate related to flood-tolerant fruit species. Additionally, in this
study taking into consideration the above literature evidences, the
flood-tolerant fruit trees under Mediterranean conditions were
investigated and ordered. This was achieved considering that flash
floods are common in the study area taking place mainly in rainy
period (winter, spring and autumn) coinciding or not with the
growing season of different fruit trees. Moreover, in order to have
trustworthy results, it was assumed that all the investigated
Mediterranean fruit trees were at the same age (mature trees).
Based on the above, in the case of the most common
Mediterranean cultivated fruit trees the order of flood tolerance
is: quince, pear, apple, plum (flood-tolerant species), citrus, cherry,
apricot, peach, and almond (moderately flood-tolerant species),
followed by olive, vineyard and avocado (not flood-tolerant trees)
(Rowe and Beardsell, 1973; Schaffer et al., 2006). As mentioned in
previous sections, the island of Crete is mainly dominated by olive,
citrus, vineyard and avocado cultivations. These cultivations are
sensitive to flooding. Thus, for an adopting agricultural approach,

Table 3
Flooded areas under current and future scenarios.

Flood risk level Area (Km2) Area (Km2) Percentage change Area (Km2) Percentage change
Baseline scenario A2 Scenario A2 vs. Baseline scenario B1 Scenario B1 vs. Baseline
Very High 1605 1459 1.77 1710 1.27
High 2330 2392 0.75 2160 2.06
Moderate 1915 2000 1.03 1894 0.25
Low 1463 1437 0.32 1488 0.30
Very Low 931 956 0.30 992 0.74
 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142 141

Fig. 7. Final flood risk maps under scenarios A2 and B1.

this study highlights the fruit tree species that show tolerance to
flooding and are economically profitable which could be suggested
for cultivation in very high flood risk areas. Based on the above,
fruit trees which could be effectively cultivated at the specific
climatological conditions of the study area, and could ensure at the
same time adequate income to local farmers could be the quince,
pear and apple trees. Specifically, the cultivation of quince trees,
that its domestic production covers only 25–30% of the total
demand in Greece, could ensure a good income to the farmers
(indicative price approximately equal to 15000 Euros/ha/year),
(Ministry of Agriculture of Greece, 2010). Thus, this cultivation
could be a prospective horticulture for low and semi-mountainous
areas of Crete where flood risk can be characterized as very high.
Moreover, considering the flood tolerance of pear and apple trees
they also could be suitable for cultivation at very high flood risk
areas of semi-mountainous and mountainous regions of Crete,
ensuring a very good income to the farmers (indicative price
approximately equal to 40000 Euros/ha/year).
4. Conclusion
The estimation of the spatial flood risk in a GIS environment is
essential for an effective flood risk management. In this paper, the
flood risk in the Mediterranean island of Crete is identified using
GIS. Specifically, the fruit tree areas which are most prone to flood
risk are indicated through the application of the proper
methodology. The determination of flood risk areas is based on
a classification of the flood risk in five categories ranging from very
high to very low. Thus, the fruit tree areas that are most susceptible
to flooding were determined. The identification of these areas
resulted from the combination of the six thematic flood risk maps
for the region of Crete. The thematic map – factors used for the
present study were: (a) flow accumulation, (b) slope, (c) land use,
(d) rainfall intensity, (e) geology, and (f) elevation. The results of
this assessment were verified by historical flood events within the
study area (including low, semi-mountainous and mountain
plateau areas). Taking into account that Crete is one of the most

Table 4
Flooded fruit tree areas under current and future scenarios.

Flood risk level Fruit Tree Area (Km2) Fruit Tree Area (Km2) Percentage change Fruit Tree Area (Km2) Percentage change
Baseline scenario A2 Scenario A2 vs. Baseline scenario B1 Scenario B1 vs. Baseline
Very High 792 695 4.42 828 1.38
High 1131 1212 3.69 1049 3.14
Moderate 270 285 0.68 313 1.65
Low/Very Low 415 416 0.05 418 0.12
142 N.N. Kourgialas, G.P. Karatzas / Environmental Science & Policy 63 (2016) 132–142
intensively fruit tree cultivated areas in Mediterranean, where
significant flash flood events occur from time to time, the proposed
methodology can contribute to the determination of horticultural
areas that are most prone to flooding.
GIS results show that 47.8% of the total area of Crete is under
very high and high flood risk, while a very significant percentage of
fruit tree areas, about 73.8%, are under very high or high flood risk.
Another aim of this study was to predict flood risk areas for the
year 2050, under climatic scenarios A2 and B1. Based on this, for
scenario A2, a decrease of very high flood risk areas was observed
in the whole area of Crete and especially in fruit tree cultivations.
On the contrary, a significant increase of high flood risk areas was
observed for fruit tree cultivations in comparison to the present
situation. Regarding scenario B1, the increase of rainfall intensity
generates a slight increase in very high flood risk areas where fruit
tree cultivations exist. The opposite behavior is observed in high
flood risk areas. Also, this study investigates and suggests flood-
tolerant and economically effective fruit tree species, suitable for
cultivation at very high flood risk areas of Crete. Such species could
be quince, pear and apple trees. All these approaches can be
incorporated into a flood decision support system and applied to
any river basin where tree crops are cultivated, ensuring the
sustainability of agriculture.
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