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A conceptual offshore oil and gas process


accident model

Article in Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries · March 2010


DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2009.12.003

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Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 23 (2010) 323e330

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Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jlp

A conceptual offshore oil and gas process accident model


M.F. Kujath a, *, P.R. Amyotte a, F.I. Khan b
a
Department of Process Engineering & Applied Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3J 2X4
b
Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada A1B 3X5

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss an accident prevention model for offshore oil and gas
Received 30 June 2009 processing environments. The accidents that are considered in this work relate specifically to hydro-
Accepted 16 December 2009 carbon release scenarios and any escalating events that follow. Using reported industry data, the
elements to prevent an accident scenario are identified and placed within a conceptual model to depict
Keywords: the accident progression. The proposed accident model elements are represented as safety barriers
Accident model
designed to prevent the accident scenario from developing. The accident model is intended to be a tool
Sequential model
for highlighting vulnerabilities of oil and gas processing operations and to provide guidance on how to
Offshore safety
minimize their hazards. These vulnerabilities are discussed by applying the 1988 Piper Alpha and the
2005 BP Texas City disaster scenarios to the model.
Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction progression of an accident. These barriers are currently conceptual


in that they represent the most important elements necessary to
There can be various formats for accident models depending on control an accidental hydrocarbon release offshore. Exhaustive
the background of the individual or team performing the analysis. searching of public domain literature confirms that there is a scar-
For example, when a human-factors expert models an accident, city of information on the subject of offshore oil and gas process
they typically use a cognitive approach that involves parameters accident modeling. The available literature concentrates primarily
such as human ability, preparedness to perform a task, and skill. on occupational accidents. There is also a great deal of information
The engineering method being utilized in the current work uses in the literature on the effects of oil and gas releases and subse-
a systematic approach, in which each cause of an accident is quent fires. Information is lacking, however, in both the concepts of
considered as a mechanism that can be represented either in logic identifying root causes of process accidents and how the incidents
form or as a sequence. escalate. The current research aims to create a technique to identify,
The starting point for this work is a review of past accidents in model, and prevent the occurrence of accidental releases in
the offshore oil and gas processing industry. A key objective is to offshore process facilities. The proposed model is developed to
learn how accidental releases of hydrocarbons occur, the different enable an organization to use its own accident data to evaluate
stages of accident occurrence, immediate and root causes, and how their risk of a release and to prevent such an occurrence.
the events escalate out of control.
There are a number of sources of information on offshore oil and
gas process accidents: research papers, government and industry 2. Available accident modeling approaches
reports, newspaper articles and accident data bases. Some of the
available offshore oil and gas accident data bases are WOAD The elements associated with the critical components of an
(Det Norske Veritas), ORION (UK HSE Offshore Safety Department), accident sequence, as related to people working, were introduced by
MAIB (UK DFT) and BLOWOUT (SINTEF of Norway). WOAD (World James Reason (Reason,1990). Subsequent application of this method
Offshore Accident Database) is being used here to provide credible (along with previous work by Bird & Germain, 1996) has led to the
accident scenarios for the proposed accident model. development of the Loss Causation Model illustrated in Fig. 1.
Undertaking a systematic approach with the proposed accident This technique establishes a hierarchal organization of the
model, the elements of the model are represented as barriers to the events and precursor conditions of an accident in an industrial
environment. The analysis begins with the loss or harm to an
individual or a process and steps back through the chain of events
* Corresponding author. and conditions that contributed to the loss. This form of feedback
E-mail address: mattkujath@hotmail.com (M.F. Kujath). leads to the upper management of an operation and facilitates

0950-4230/$ e see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2009.12.003
324 M.F. Kujath et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 23 (2010) 323e330

Fig. 1. Loss causation model adapted from Bird and Germain (1996).

decision making on options to stop the reoccurrence at any level in as previously mentioned there are a few available data bases:
the chain. A failure at any level in this model can result in the ORION, MAIB, BLOWOUT, and WOAD. WOAD has been used here to
progression to a loss. collect data on offshore oil and gas process accidents to compile
Fig. 2 shows a similar accident modeling technique commonly a listing of hazards and to evaluate the ensuing risk. In reviewing
known as the Swiss Cheese Model (of James Reason). This technique the WOAD records, drilling blow-outs and navigational mishaps
is currently being used in the aviation industry to prevent human such as towing accidents were omitted from the analysis.
error (Shappell & Wiegmann, 2000). It is titled the Swiss Cheese From our comprehensive review of WOAD, the predominant
Model because it uses a concept of latent or precursive failures reported reasons for hydrocarbon releases are: loose bolts on
represented as holes in slices of Swiss cheese. It is also a sequential flanges, loose flanges, damaged flange seals, incorrect welds, loose
loss causation model in that it operates on the principle that there fittings, faulty valves, switching generator fuels, overfilling of
are successive safety barriers (figurative slices), which, when they tanks, open access/vent/valve, safety instrumented system failures,
fail, provide a hole through to the next slice. If all the slices fail, then damaged hoses, equipment start up, seal failures, and pump over-
all the figurative holes line up, providing a path for an accident to pressure. The reported sources of ignition are: turbine gas leak, hot
occur. The concept is that a loss is never the absolute responsibility of manifold, short circuit due to water ingress in electrical panel,
the final person in the chain of decisions and events leading to an welding and grinding, and bearing overheating.
accident. What is theorized is that there needs to be a convergence of Other possible causes of accidental hydrocarbon releases are:
events and conditions which permit an accident to occur. The Swiss vibration, corrosion and release of inert nitrogen from within a tank.
Cheese Model representation for an accident has been applied Other sources of ignition are: vibrations and static electricity.
predominantly to occupational accidents. However, these other release scenarios and potential ignition sour-
The accident model developed in the current work adopts the ces did not feature prominently in the WOAD records sampled.
concept that an accident is never the sole responsibility of a single The above results from WOAD are supported by the work of
person, but a culmination of circumstances that in combination Sklet (2006a,2006b), who presented similar findings collected from
produce an accident. In the proposed model, both previously published release statistics covering the British sector of the North
described techniques (Figs. 1 and 2) are merged to formulate an Sea, data from the Petroleum Safety Board covering the Norwegian
integrated approach to process accident modeling. The develop- Continental Shelf, and various Det Norske Veritas release reports.
ment of the methodology is further guided by past accident The additional hydrocarbon release concerns reported by Sklet
data that are available in the public domain literature. The sequence (2006a,2006b) are: lack of water in water locks, internal corrosion,
of elements representing the different stages of a hydrocarbon external corrosion, erosion, overpressure, external impact/load, and
release accident have been developed from these reported data, as design error.
described in the following sections. The organization within a novel accident model of all these
reported reasons for hydrocarbon releases and escalating events is
3. Reported hydrocarbon release data review presented in the next section.

There are numerous accident data bases worldwide for various


4. Proposed accident prevention model
types of safety considerations. For the offshore oil and gas industry,
The proposed model (Fig. 3) integrates the Loss Causation Model
(Fig. 1) along with the Swiss Cheese Model (Fig. 2) to depict an
accident scenario for the offshore oil and gas process industry.
These available models work from the potential loss element
backwards through to identifying potential management failures,
with intermediate steps of causation in between. They effectively
model how to scrutinize occupational behaviour to avoid a loss.
This is achieved by placing importance on an organization as
a whole to reduce the responsibility of an individual and to show
management's responsibility for shortfalls when they occur.
The proposed accident model starts at reducing the risk of
a hydrocarbon release and applying successive safety (prevention)
barriers to minimize the escalation of events as shown in Fig. 3.
Each safety barrier is further branched to highlight applicable
safety barrier sub-elements. These sub-elements are organized
using fault trees as detailed in Fig. 4. The sub-elements pertain
specifically to offshore oil and gas processing as discussed in the
Fig. 2. Swiss cheese model adapted from Shappell and Wiegmann (2000). previous section outlining the WOAD review results.
M.F. Kujath et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 23 (2010) 323e330 325

Fig. 3. Accident model.

The Release Prevention Barrier is the first element from the left a release has escalated out of control. DiMattia, Khan, and Amyotte
in the model as represented in Fig. 4. This barrier identifies the sub- (2005) describe how a team of expert judges from the offshore oil
elements necessary to reduce the risk of a hydrocarbon release and gas industry were asked to identify and rank the most impor-
from process equipment. The Ignition Prevention Barrier identifies tant variables to a safe muster and evacuation of an offshore plat-
the necessary sub-elements to prevent the ignition of a potential form. The results were: stress, complexity of evacuation tasks,
release. The Escalation Prevention Barrier includes sub-elements training, muster experience, event factors and atmospheric factors.
for preventing an escalation of the events beyond the initial These variables have been adopted here as the basis for the sub-
release/ignition scenario. The Harm Prevention Barrier contains elements for the Harm Prevention Barrier. The final element of the
sub-elements to prevent harm to people during an evacuation after model is the Loss Prevention Barrier. The principles of inherent

Fig. 4. Accident model sub-element fault trees.


326 M.F. Kujath et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 23 (2010) 323e330

safety (e.g. Khan & Amyotte, 2003) can be applied at this barrier to Table 1
mitigate the potential losses. It should be noted that application of Process accident rates reported from 1986 to 2003, WOAD (2008).

the principles of inherent safety can also have significant benefits in HC release scenario HC release Incident Percentage per Percentage
preventing hydrocarbon releases in the first instance. count from 1000 HC release per accident
The logic in the proposed model depicted in Fig. 4 is achieved reviewed records scenario record

through an OR gate between the parent prevention barrier and its Loose Flange/Fitting 38 17% 4%
Open Valve 37 17% 4%
sub-elements. Each prevention barrier is similarly constructed so
Various 145 66% 15%
that if there is a high probability of failure of any of the sub-element
safety barriers, then the parent prevention barrier is highlighted as
having a similarly high probability of failure. The next prevention (in particular the World Offshore Accident Database, WOAD). To
barrier is then analysed until a prevention barrier succeeds or an evaluate the model elements in terms of probability of failure, an
accident ultimately escalates as shown in Fig. 5. organization would need to collect data as identified by the safety
To apply the proposed model to an accident or a platform study, barrier analysis embodied in the model. These data are presum-
one would start at the Release Prevention Barrier sub-element ably available internally in companies engaged in offshore oil and
concerned with a particular deviation and work to the right gas activities. However, this detailed information is lacking in
assessing the vulnerability of the scenario to a release escalation as current accident data bases such as WOAD.
represented in Fig. 5. The vulnerability of the scenario would be What WOAD has provided to the current work is a level of detail
assessed using fault tree analysis applied to the sub-elements of the sufficient for conceptual model development, as illustrated by the
model depicted in Fig. 4. following example. A sample of 1000 out of an available 5162
A deviation for a scenario analysis would be an event that offshore oil and gas accident records from WOAD are shown in
resulted in a release of hydrocarbons. The first barrier to encounter Table 1. The timeframe for the reporting of all accidents is from
the deviation would be the Release Prevention Barrier. If, when 1970 through 2005. The first 1000 records reviewed and being
analysed using a fault tree, the sub-elements illustrated in Fig. 4 reported here are from a timeframe of 1986 through 2003.
highlight that there is concern of failure to these safety barriers, Offshore oil and gas operations are a mix of activities related to
then the deviation continues on to the next safety barrier in the surveying, drilling, refining and transporting. Most accidents seem
model, the Ignition Prevention Barrier. If there is no concern of to be related to navigational errors and adverse weather. The
failure of any of the Release Prevention Barrier sub-elements, then primary indication of release of hydrocarbons during offshore oil
the deviation would return to a safe state. This would require that and gas processing is 17% from loose bolts on flanges or similar
all of the sub-elements had a sufficiently low probability of incur- components and 17% for valves being left inadvertently open or
ring a failure. If there are highlighted failures during the fault tree closed (Table 1). These are currently the most credible reported
analysis, then the deviation can continue ultimately to an escalated reasons for offshore oil and gas process accidental releases indicated
accident where losses are incurred to people, property, production by WOAD. This result significantly highlights the Fitting of Flanges
and the environment, as represented in Fig. 5. This approach is and Valve Position Labelling sub-elements in the proposed model's
applied to case study accident scenarios in the following section. Release Prevention Barrier. The various other reasons for hydro-
It is well-understood by the current authors that the safety carbon releases had lower frequencies of occurrence compared to
barrier elements of the present model are conceptual. The loose flanges, loose fittings and open valves. Again, the quantitative
elements are, however, scientifically rigorous in that they have evaluation of what constitutes a high degree of concern of failure for
been developed by means of a comprehensive search of public a safety barrier on a given installation requires facility-specific data
domain literature pertinent to the offshore oil and gas industry (which is beyond the capabilities of data bases such as WOAD).

Fig. 5. Accident model event tree.


M.F. Kujath et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 23 (2010) 323e330 327

5. Case study application of proposed model model, this deviation alone would result in a progression to the
Ignition Prevention Barrier. However, the other relevant high-
The proposed model can be applied to an existing operation or lighted safety barriers require further discussion. The Verification
a past accident to identify concerns in safety regarding hydrocarbon of Work Permits barrier is highlighted because the work permit for
releases. Using the details of the Piper Alpha disaster, one can see the backup pump stated that the pump was not in working order.
how the reported incident fits within the model and highlights the This document should have been checked but was not found before
accident progression. putting the backup pump into service. The Fitting of Flanges safety
On the day of the Piper Alpha accident, a backup hydrocarbon barrier is highlighted for this scenario, since there was question as
pump was put out of service to recertify the pump's relief valve. to whether the blind flange that was installed in place of the relief
Subsequently, this pump was left out of service after a shift change valve was fitted correctly. If not installed correctly, then the flange
because the maintenance work was not completed. The pump was could have contributed to the release. This situation ultimately
later required to backup the primary pump that had tripped, but the leaves the process without a functioning relief system when the
backup pump did not have a functioning relief system. The backup backup pump is in service, highlighting the Relief System barrier.
pump was rushed into service, resulting in a release. Once ignited, The lack of a functioning relief valve on the backup pump lead to an
the release lead to a fire and a series of explosions (Cullen, 1990). overpressure of the pump and resulted in a release. This situation
Using the current model as a guide, the aspects of the scenario in highlights the Over-Pressure Monitoring sub-element.
terms of safety barriers that are important in understanding the The Ignition Prevention Barrier is analysed next. Analysis of the
accident are depicted in Fig. 6. The sub-elements of the barriers that ignition of the release for this disaster was inconclusive. It could
are highlighted are considered to be those having a high risk of have been caused by a hot turbine exhaust surface in an adjacent
failure. area, an electrostatic spark, or from the release jet itself. This
Under the Release Prevention Barrier, first the Equipment Cali- situation highlights the Spark Inhibition and Shielding of Hot
bration Schedules sub-element is highlighted because the task of Exhaust Surfaces safety barriers. The Gas Alarm safety barrier is
recertifying the relief valve was not completed. In terms of the also highlighted here since alarms sounded before the explosion

Fig. 6. Piper alpha accident model fault trees.


328 M.F. Kujath et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 23 (2010) 323e330

occurred, though in this scenario there was little time for action and being started up when the vessel introduced liquid and vapour
eventually the release ignited. through its relief into a separate relief sump, which subsequently
The Escalation Prevention Barrier is considered next. The area overflowed to atmosphere resulting in fire and explosion and
where the release occurred, the hydrocarbon pump enclosure, was significant loss of life.
protected by fire walls and not by explosion walls since the plat- Fig. 7 shows how the current conceptual model is used again as
form originally was designed only for oil production. If the area had a guide to highlight the aspects of the scenario in terms of safety
been outfitted with explosion walls, then the adjacent oil separa- barriers that are important to understanding the accident. Again,
tion area would likely not have caught fire and the event may not the sub-elements of the barriers that are highlighted are consid-
have escalated further. ered to be those having a high risk of failure.
In the current model, this consideration highlights the Fire Walls The Release Prevention Barrier is considered first for analysis.
and Explosion Walls safety barriers. The explosion escalation When applying the model to this incident, the Relief System sub-
caused damage to the Sprinkler System, another highlighted safety element is highlighted as a concern of failure; the relief system was
barrier in the model. If blast walls were used, then the sprinklers not designed to handle such an upset. A better relief would have
could have helped to reduce the severity of the fire. A control room been to flare, where the overpressure contents would have been
operator did not activate a shutdown of the process when alarms burned before accumulating and exploding. There was concern
were sounding because he felt he had seen this same situation raised about proper Management of Change being followed at the
many times before without adverse results. The eventual scenario facility (the next highlighted safety barrier). The process equipment
might have been altered if he had realized the imminent danger. An had been modified extensively over decades and some process
automatic shutdown of the platform did occur after the platform configurations were novel and undocumented. Therefore, the
was all but lost. These details highlight both the Automatic Shut Off equipment configuration in terms of open or closed valves
of HC Process Inflow and Manual Shut Off of HC Process Inflow according to proper procedure was questionable. This highlights
safety barriers in the model. the safety barrier of Valve Position Labelling to insure all valves are
The Harm Prevention Barrier is the next safety barrier to be correctly operated.
analysed. During the initial explosion the platform control room The Ignition Prevention Barrier is analysed next. The ignition of
was destroyed and the relevant personnel to order an evacuation the overpressure contents of the distillation tower relief system for
were killed, so it is difficult to establish the exact details of the the scenario was inconclusive, though a likely source was hot
muster sequence. The Personnel Distance to Hazard safety barrier is engine exhaust from a truck too close to the relief equipment. Using
highlighted here. People were still evacuating long after the initial the model, the Shielding of Hot Exhaust Surfaces safety barrier is
explosion, but in a typical accident the time constraints are highlighted here as a point of concern. The Gas Alarm safety barrier
generally much shorter. For the model the Evacuation Time is also highlighted because there were no automatic gas alarms to
Constraint sub-element is pertinent. Of 226 personnel onboard the detect the overpressure scenario and to notify people close to the
platform, 165 people died and another two rescue workers were relief location. The ignition point may have also been static
also lost. If there were blast walls installed on the platform to discharge to accumulated gas in the nearby sewer, which is covered
protect the control room, accommodations and processes, the by the Spark Inhibition barrier.
evacuation would likely have happened much quicker. Muster The Escalation Prevention Barrier is considered next. Stopping
Training was also called into question (Cullen, 1990), and hence this the input of hydrocarbon feed, and/or increasing off-take and
sub-element is highlighted. reducing heat input earlier would possibly have prevented the
The last safety barrier to be considered is the Loss Prevention incident. This is highlighted by the Manual Shut Off of HC Process
Barrier. An oil and gas platform operates with a high associated risk Inflow safety barrier of the model. The Automatic Shut Off of HC
of danger. This danger was realized during the Piper Alpha disaster. Process Inflow barrier is also relevant here, in that an automatic
One item that could have been improved with respect to equipment shutdown was not initiated by the antiquated processing equip-
would have been to substitute the fire walls with blast walls in the ment. The processes were located outdoors so blast wall protection
hydrocarbon processing enclosures, highlighting the Substitution of was not provided for operators or nearby personnel. This is high-
Inherent HC Hazard safety barrier. The other platforms in the vicinity lighted under the Explosion Walls safety barrier of the model.
of Piper Alpha continued production while the Piper platform fires The Harm Prevention Barrier is analysed next. Before the
and explosions escalated. This production introduced massive explosion there were process alarms that sounded and there were
amounts of hydrocarbons to Piper Alpha even though the rig was some that did not. There was no alarm to warn nearby personnel of
shutdown; this further escalated the catastrophe. The inherent impending danger such as the relief system overflow. There was
safety principle of minimization of hydrocarbon inflow would have reported concern over training of all personnel involved. The
reduced the severity of the escalated events, highlighting the procedures were ad hoc from poor management of change of the
Minimization of Inherent HC Hazard barrier. equipment and the procedures were also not consistently followed.
The Piper Alpha accident as depicted in Fig. 6 shows that all the There were substantial delays with process protocols as well as
parent prevention barriers are highlighted. The fault trees identify distractions in the control room and the fact that the process start
that all prevention barriers have failed and the scenario escalated to up was performed over two shifts. The explosion killed 15 people
a major loss. This clearly shows that the scenario that progressed and injured another 170 persons. This scenario did not occur
was preventable, since the primary elements of the accident offshore and most of the casualties occurred due to the location of
scenario have been identified. If there was protection provided as temporary trailers full of personnel next to the process relief.
highlighted by the current model, then the scenario may have The most applicable safety barrier for modeling purposes is the
developed differently. As always when using case studies to vali- Personnel Distance to Hazard. Simply put, if the distance to the
date (in part) a conceptual model, the current authors recognize the hazard was increased, then more people would have survived. This
certainty afforded by hindsight. latter observation overlaps with the final parent prevention barrier.
The model can also be applied to the BP Texas City disaster as The Loss Prevention Barrier is considered last for analysis.
reported by Mogford (2005). The incident investigation revealed Management of change studies did not identify the relief system as
that a distillation tower for hydrocarbons was not being utilized a danger to parked trucks and trailers full of people situated next to
according to established procedure. The distillation process was the system relief. Utilizing the Moderation of Inherent HC Hazard
M.F. Kujath et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 23 (2010) 323e330 329

Fig. 7. BP Texas city accident model fault trees.

safety barrier, the fact that people should have been situated fineness; the vast majority of available information is, however,
further away from the relief location is highlighted. It would also lacking in sufficient detail to enable quantification of results.
have been beneficial to substitute the blow-down relief with a flare. Extensive use has also been made in this study of the World
This point is covered by the Substitution of Inherent HC Hazard Offshore Accident Database (WOAD), which has provided acci-
safety barrier. dental release scenario information for qualitative model devel-
The fault trees in Fig. 7 show that all of the parent prevention opment. Again, though, WOAD cannot provide quantifiable data for
barriers are highlighted in the proposed accident model. This the purpose of modeling the probability of safety barrier failure.
identifies that all prevention barriers have failed, with the scenario Thus, the safety barrier sub-elements of the proposed model
escalating to a major loss. As in the Piper Alpha scenario, the BP must currently be described as conceptual. Some are easily quan-
Texas City explosion was preventable if considerations were made tifiable with appropriate failure data such as the probability of
earlier for the plant shortcomings. failure of Explosion Walls. With the availability of more precise
data, elements such as Shielding of Hot Exhaust Surfaces or
6. Conclusion Personnel Distance to Hazard can be evaluated. The model dis-
cussed in this work is meant to highlight the vulnerabilities of an oil
For offshore oil and gas process accidents there are limited and gas operation to a hydrocarbon release, before events escalate
sources of useful information for the purposes of understanding an out of control. Further efforts are being attempted to collect the
accident scenario, especially from a technical perspective. Reported necessary data for evaluation of the failure probabilities of indi-
data often do not provide details of release scenarios except for vidual safety barrier sub-elements in the proposed model.
simply acknowledging the release event itself. Therefore, it The proposed accident model is directly applicable to offshore
becomes difficult to establish a realistic release and escalation oil and gas processing operations; however, it can also be applied to
scenario. In the present work, incident details have been provided other industries that process flammable or otherwise hazardous
from industry and government reports with some degree of chemicals. The data used to develop the accident model were
330 M.F. Kujath et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 23 (2010) 323e330

derived specifically from offshore operations, but the model's References


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