4. Statistics of Extremes 41 tmopucrion ‘An eaponant cls of rabbit problems ar tot von the exe vales ‘Teeter ate, tity tenet" enr“onaen now oe ae ‘ast Steal hse rao the mann ad mina ae om ‘tof bsermtons, Cons ithe st of ebervations amples of Se») ‘Sere repent, eer maximum and minimum vase wil e obtain that {ie ysl large and males aloes compre popson of is ow ‘Toeelre thaw tee vale may so be modeled a random vara wah epecine pobibity cbaions Suk datvtom aod the asatee printers eve spval charac that af ung the eee Vales ‘Tose speci concep and ign characters hve pence in engi thu the unerstuncng important fr te prope apples. "The sujet of the asin ofthe het tnd sal values ix sbi wih he broader ste cde ais eg Wik 1948) hat he sates ‘The kyle emt op we asthe al Hom te btm Accrperenvetesnent oft ats hoy eee vals ave ln he work of Gude (958 and examples of sppcton fo phys rods hve abe ben cused (eg, Gumbe, 1954 The: prinpal lent the Saul hor of xeme aut are hihi here, wth emp on thet ‘pncane sn potent sppletons fo engnsring problems 411, Engierng Sigulemee of Extreme Vales rene values fom brits! eats ae of seca portance © may ‘gierngspletion: For example nhecnadertn of svc] ey, the hig ous and low scr estancer ae tev mot eleva fhe ‘Ssrane fale oat a a sro: a oo conta propane, the ‘muxnum fod ofa er eg tn ya) ite most ieant Row fencer, eras ignton work a water spy Progr he mame ew would eof the mow reeence Thewore in desing wih problem naling och ‘ene condios the maxima or minima from ats of Seeraton tthe Dette data. The susics tnd prota zoe with such extreme ‘Shur therore ae the forsatoe of pc importance "Te edition of ue oan en eee engineering plning and ip and may ile the predision ofthe res (0 se) vale "rapotoa forpreviou seed evens alae a therlore nearly seta for thi puro, te asmpottheor of aia eatemes ote rove «power bat for devwlping the requedenpinesig iron 6 ‘onan DesruBUTION OF EXTREMES 187 4612 Objecve an Covent ‘he sd of me ts a bled ed of maton Stites Homee, the sgeane eis Deal theory to practi ‘Spam pies bt wie soe Cb (95) Gos ‘eal eppeatos int number of aren, wheres praca eu ‘nine tts ote teal xem bave been obese or ample by Pres {$350 Chow (195 and Och C97). The pnt evant ane oexreme ake atts may aot immedi te uate fo he naeie mathemati tetanus oe (her ban prota en ar fe pened peng the ecny mathe ‘neal orate bas I orteatn i thay prt ai ‘Stl roby tec a exe ules er ht are eee oo an ‘emoceenlysdetcd by engi’ and tudes of epering, THe eon ‘ated wil br ante eel with xml fo cry the ending ‘athena! peopl ‘Spee roles in several aris fngneringappstlon are to dics san sheresppopat (eno parte sain) ata nae ws Ibert te terete ead 42 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREMES 421 Fane Diao ‘The age ao male vale om samples oz ae random variables tn here fave pray debtor ftir These Strona ‘rerpced oe sced othe datibuton of he ntl earare(or open). ACE be te nal andor vale with Known nl dstibtonfneton £46. Goa alt a ake oon Ge caine nb u seo oberaton ye) preming ep ie es cond end nt observed val Since Cer Sse ae [rele pie 0 ata terain we may sume hat each bain [Reise of x uadom rarabi ae tes of sseaton egy 20 82 ‘inion of sample random rls ye) Teor aspen {Fie exreme ls om asap san ea covering te ed mcninuey of yy, stat he dom varabls Ym many Kip) ato) la Lae XD any) “The potbiiydstribtins thse xtreme aes tao yan can be EID E> KKM =O For The datsbutonfncton oY, teers it FQ)=1~0~ Tt a Su) = 01 ~ FAOT'140) a the eae of he sae vale Hom samples of sie, the dest onion Su{0)and driouon fancton Fr) Wl si the le wih nerensiag spe Egutions 42 hough Sarthe exe robb diribtons fhe entrees ‘oom samp of sue = aes om 3 popaton X. Clay, hse dba ‘sped on tenia datbation Fs) te poplaon ad oo the sae ‘sem Toe dtibtons of 7, and, ae penta eat ono deine a ‘ej orm lal variates wi the exponent Sabon are one of he expo Fee 4d POF at COF oh he ae on exponen ti vite EXAMPLE 41 mieten rite X ving een ety on lo: Harte; 220 “aecorepai tbs etn Fadei-ee “Teoh i om gla en wate edo on inners p20190 stansmes oF exraenes ste corepantig ay nse PDE) Aim ere reat, bese cts a Fy el apes t= Li) aso 1g Liem iret ns hog ncaa reno Tinea) wep! owe Bema ee Te Por or Loe nar5(-9" ras cr meee nee ga ic womauiry ernacriow or exrnewes 191 + ey Fore £63 PDF ind COF oe eg ae yo tl ron he oaeming CDF so POF fort ali le om nt var et a raver)Is stanencs or xrmues s uanrne 44 ton Feeame Teen cm tn redo f etm cay ‘hte ston ip hed thw CDF ow: ra (Sef eee) = ceo se teererneg POF | be Son a. cmt ri cin case mvc ean he =a esse Br npn. aerdg A rant una apn, be matin tation ing CDP fer nea ‘coed Tena RESTS bee rai re ea 422, Asympate Dries Obverain of Ee 2 though 45 may ead ope ingire about the chara: {eres ofthe ton oft entre an fecorer re Tr parle ‘here Hing ov asap fons of Fy.) aa fo) a8 nny, for FQ) and yarns Tab quetice hs Oe te wes dy 6) ‘cy hatin for eumple, Fiber and Tippet (197), Gnedenk (90), [nd has come ob own ashe spi hear of attic extremes “The wsulese ol xene vl stately enbane! ty he aye theory of errenalGatoaons Tite aca teoy concede oe liming forms of 0) an Fr Ff) 08 0) 8 esomes are o Ineeaseswithoot bound That ab n+, F (sadn Fy Q) may converge Gr ssvbaton) vn parla funtnal or Naf ere ad paced ‘Seienace ta heaps fom o tna bution doe 0 ep Pe B04 POF An CDF omen i et nthe exc frm of he ntl derbi; uber, it depends argon ai orton often disriuton ha it induce on the rpc fhe ‘foal cern he trea peat bowerer wl epend on be or Derivation of yma Extremal Disribation; Cramert Method Tae say talento oft ppropenessypotseenal done sh =), ‘Bre he dbution ofan lial rate eae by he tod of Came too. (Conider Sot he exvemal dase forthe large valu fom 0 ina var X Fai Cramer (94), ne ene the aoe random vee Gan FAD «96 sransnes or exrmnees Thea FO= Psd = Pl = Fav = 8 fren -§ Aen co,wetave « snecomnegsnnute ror none “ eb ote nom(-§) “ There fr arg he anympose tbat of Y, maybe determined fom, ‘hat off aspen is Ege) and bee on the ncn velop Eg. 49, fn heard choave ta fo 4.45, eres a7 omer todo, Ps) = PL > a) svhze othe exeeson on the ih de of Eg £4 Hence, the CDF of Y. ‘Bey be obtained fom at of 8 F,)= 3 ~ Fela = ext-000) a0) ‘out assure oF teraves 17 ‘The te ot 10 then yl he PF, fag= ~M-a0n an exams 4s ose sin ita i of zp ete genial PF wean ‘ae aig 10 COP he art a hate Xr Fh enone figymnie eins ‘eta nat re nin erin ng rrp ard = 1 Setinecbr ee oem rane “eesye attain POF ad COF, on ahve tows Wig Eo SIRS hoteinty 2 dite Resegemnclteronestore ‘Sretseaponani henry theron ning rare ora EXAMPLE 64 eres Th 46een yt te iY pi ranma 321 tec FO ute fhimicehs rat rossi? DISABUTION OF EXTREMES 198 EXAMPLE 47 finals oars rannk assce nthe eon a 45 vob 4) Fionreaf-Ze-n}: ores “am with CDF of it sa- xan 6 Taye Fev, mene FF ndsang tetany 68 defen leeig yase senses or ees : arnt rao fe- nie a-(- sedan won An vet FA e «a wd Kone wo hs cae af ness, sho crestor the CDF of; alow from tha of a fle: an (te ci ct i “setter : fi0)~ "62a -00 ao beaure «9 one the nile wi te exponent ean of xp ha Bayne rane opel een temas tomes coe org 1, a a ann 8A then lh fling CF: Fy tm eaten; y20 eh he comependi OF frnnie™ p20 CDF wih at of naples ne eth he an be met Sea cfatnpcematnc tale testa ps etn See [Serra be aru of be rer va see) ome intrest a oer eae) opel ore STEMS nivatte teeters Spagna eacior me Forbes by Cree erga {in ln eta hoa ag eb Forte Cee heap ation Yat nmasinee, ee avi EES saving aan a CDF Yong 58 Fan tment nt coating POF Loh nee“ esneclo a a bene a ob arco penalFare 2 Syme ie 423, The Syne Piece “Teint hela ad smal ler arecetd hy cern contons (mer, whch Gumbel (1988) called th "ome prince” Conte» venom rare X wth POF fy atodoe the “nepte™ varite whoxe POF Fea) the mirr ime ot fsa sbown Fig 2 Kistesln heed yedts ope IFW) = Fk) Tha, 0- For = x9 Bat atcording 1 Ege 42nd 44, theo sie of he above equation a, ‘rcv thes fenton othe ses ve rom he vrata he ‘Stcbtinfnction fe argest aloe om the arte X" at 1 Fy, 0)= Fal an “Tae corerponding POF theory Ini Sob-D ay) “Troup te symmetry pipe Eg 417 o 4 the suri fston of the sales ale of arate, therfore may be oate rom the ction of 1s pratense. Toe fog example hold eae th mening 1 poten sabes oth prin EUMPLE 611 Conti xpi tain of redone Xi PDF fades 30 raeinee ‘The-ognine rite" PDF th ier pf nn Fi A) ihm onde" hee, 28 rromimuiry isrmurow oF exrnewes 205 a sah cmapnting Foo “Teen one fa i rm pe fe ol mayb bans mea tieemer ren enon, "Pepe arp nel Fang By Fr§N) =k “Trdg cg 17, nn eal a Terme" ‘may con ye tat = Féer ae Serer incense cm xan 42 Non coer a et X ithe api bn ns) ‘Thecompoatng PDF rx" Hu tana recon = [Seo ers SSS aaa ee te te ems 1 Fal Fé = nme ERAM@Le 4a eum 8, el te api tin tt pe om he Finney306 sransics or exreeues Soheiae liners ack 3 1 Fy)= eden seer Tce ‘kee td i Ee 0 ing Cer ted 43, THE THREE ASYMPTOTIC FORMS 1a Section 422, we obsaved tat the ssa atin of the exremes |b he sera cramps iasrated nd fo converge on cert ming forme ft Ingen spect 16 the douse exponential form ort wo leet (np) ‘exponent fons, Gael (1958) hd ed these ae Type I, nT ‘Symptons “Typed: The dbl esponenl orm ep, ‘Typell Theeponetil om, xe “Typell: The exponential form with upper bound a exp —AGKo ~ 9. ‘Sin ays rms alo apply to he smallest vals. "amples 45,46, ané £7 are respect stan the Type 1,1, and "nt asympote tintin: of te ngs val whereas Examples 41029849 asc caumple othe Type and I anymptte dtbtons of te sale aoe ‘Ete se nove tu he pe sae fom a naval bei wal ‘teers taympotily to the Type iting frm Bees the eee ves o's random vara ae ivy asc with heals es rab deny function he comers fhe atte {esion of eee (apes oS) value to prteslar lin form, ‘eer dnt on hel tr teal etn ‘ion with an exponential ecayieg Yl (in the Seton of the extreme) wl ‘comer aspapovzly 10 te Type T leit whereas. fori ‘erate that des wih» pmol tir txeme tale Wl Sonvege fo the Typ amp for Final the erreme abet ed ht he lege ae hss fe upper bound the salon vals has fe ower bout coresponding exten! stbuion ml converge (are) tothe ‘ypelitrympote orm Testouid be mentoned tht the thee asymp forms ae oot exhasine (Ganbe. 195) tat re col be typo datatons othe xvene "ales tat nt tog to any ofthe tes tps dsr! above. Moreover, ‘te extemal dtbata for the eee tle Fo & es lial arate ue rate asrrrone rows 107 converse toon typeof sympa orm, wheres te statin fhe eter ‘ceme rote e nel art cols comes 0 noterseympa form Tas as ltsiaed aler n Eampies 43 and $9 for an exponent Nowwou For the ake oferty ano dtinguih be desertion ofthe tee pes of mymptove dstbstons te flowing tottons wl ed fo ‘engate he especie xen vars soeted wth here ee apie Xa Yoana aie for the resales wth th Type, {ean I arympt rma mips uF Zs seam vst othe sea vats with be Te Tandem forme, pete. For reat refers the CDF ad atin of hte thes armpit pe of ‘real nition are rummaraed in TA.) f Appelt A 432, The Type Anymptte orm ‘Te camunive dition fiction (CDP) of te Type fap form for {be dibuton ote arp vale isthe ase o Gul (950 at faows Feo) = 9 -e™) (as, are gan ae repel he eatin and sale parameters defi as 1: The rare get auf inti varie X ‘The correspaicng probably densty freon PDF) Sale) = ge explo an Foc the sat vale om an iil vane X with a “exponen” (ee tebow he eoresponting Type asymp oa ore COP S| Fa(a)n Lacan] an td the POF Info) = 0 eagl ee ec te prams ar 10 Te character mata auf he nial are X, 4 «a xponnialTal Fora iil dtistion with an exponent desig tl (ete een oth erm) he sibeon of tremens vue Wiaa sransnes or eresues ‘converge tothe Type 1 asymp form (Gumbel 183; Fisher and Tipe {927}, Gumbel (1950 ded a ial tration vith an cxponeti alta be thin thereto of extreme and forage postive ayes he ah ‘aria X the ordinates offs) and 1 ~ Fs) ae Sal wheres [) sal Td aeuine Spey forge = ay an The Charcrerinic Ezra Te characteris args vl, i conveist ‘Beau cea! aon of the pou rg wales Ins ale ae ‘irom anita arate X, the expected urbe of sump valves tha sage (han rv(l Fy The crane alae end ashe pr ela o that sample ann fom he ital poplin Xe ‘peed umber supe aus rer thas oe ML ~ Flug] = 10 Fya)=t ay es ote wor a ithe ve of X with an exenance probly of ie rea "Wh Ea 425 Ea 42 yt (ith Y, replant 3.) Nore t Dettion cf ance eg Pu rans asrurrore roms 209 Mane, eon em Feline} = 0368 ana Pik, >ag 0682 ‘his means, hors, ht emong the popuiion of pout arget als om Stee sae about 7c ar ear te yor oe pe ate "Simin, he charac saat ale, oy may eed at ne fa) =1 Fi (29 sn a Yt 2) rand=s=( ‘Tero fora Fe(u) “1-6 =060 ‘hich means ta amon he populton of patible sales alues eX ebout (eile than “The characte zene anda, at abo the modal vale Le, ost eta trap mr rte on aie ‘now probable hare als fom sample f and othe moet peta ‘Stal vale fom supe of XT may besbowaor charset aps “ae owe Ts be the dal alu of X,-Then, hb th sin of Sef0—9 «an “Taking the derive of 43, we obtain Sa) = MEET PAD) + Me KETO) 427 te yt orp he bat Xo ei ttn Fat £8. -yfBao Tat Fe1a Beh of £4428, for inn toons with exponent tay the above ‘sunica rome: Fr thie we bt “Tea we confi that he characte val of thi rine isu to ‘heron probable ale oy ‘Ving E43 in.) =O we csr show that atthe tari me le ape em thei re Tie Heard Fanton tn lai hry, the cons! prodabity of fee Ct oe no flue (2, vole he haar feson )= foyEl FU} Ase al euch § faction i io vied a the ort ges ae the bard ction af X may be defeat Nad = Wale) 0) ho = 4a) aan Conia a et na uf) A set Stes ai etna at sl a Tae Stiga dnantisepe afin rien rod = w0pee Kenan e tears Fron 8 1=!0a we rune asearroric rons 211 eens coughs wit Ey. 42 and 428, ne bin F00= sd = - 0 ate deo) 23 el Tre sen pen eis rt ny ny ied Ths th 428, rio=t-tfi-e—anaede- wien —e-wrear-] ot Setar Thee dt of pt, £2 eno raon=[i-jomenny oa ‘| ret ee eae pees ter Fifa) = et 4 ‘Comparing ie shove with E419, we obser hat his the Type Enmptotic Serhutns othe rest vale wih be esos parece shied = Wied an ‘Sim's, ane shows tat forthe Type sey tbat of te salt aan te parame = ha) = ed «ws Stoner Ezremal Varnes Foe he Type largest value, we ay node the ‘Rondel cxea rate Saat wo «oous datibtia (CDF) te is Fao) 296 «ws sade PDF fi) = re —e9 39 uuioe 438 znd 436 show hat the distin of ema ofthe Type ssmmposi form, th prams ste (Chaps 3, VoL In paral, he potas 435 may be Isbulta (ep, TaiteA2} from whic he cmultie proba o geo ‘ype Lenteal arate, may be eveuied bom uch a uble of probabas {or ing te elation fg 44 Tht te CDF of Xn Beene a Fie) = Fale ~ WD «sn, Stay or yet ome a eeong sania eet Sania) «en “Ten. camtve probabil atid with vale of X; maybe ert from one tabled fr §, Table A ing Eq 438 Ta Fx(@) =~ Fla) a Moment ant Momen:-Graraing Fecons The moment severing fonction (Ge Copier, Vell he Type | sandal extenal vate $8 a= Be = fleeere Thm mH we rune Asrwrorc Poms 13 “Tis est ipl the gamma icine TL fone Se tenet monet geting a= rua «a ‘The darts of Gl, eluate at £0 therfore yall the rpetive smomenteofS Toe kh dete of Fl) (Cram 194) ret o= [retartae ‘Ab 1= 0, he sro dares of 1 (G5 he ou of thee oe = 1) tase ben rated by Gane! y= 057M... (be Euler ube) 7 2M ye fates ale enw at # tees ns oe inwhich 5, = 200. Hens he mean and variance of 8 m= y=astmus 2 a-z Reseomate pment etna beens simeg ip sade et So oon ee cae Fem 04 ee et meoneh wnShay hon 3 he eee ws as) The skewnes coe oc be shown to beeqaalt0 dy = 1.1614 wheres the ewan costa of X, Seal 19 T1414 Te Extremal Parameters The spt orm ofthe exes dsrbation ‘Racy ncopndent of teen orn of he tal dbion depends only onthe al fhe nti PDF inte detonate extene Home te pram ‘Suru ands ofthe Type! anmpeons drt, ae wel a hae he Type ‘ht asymptote forme (rtd sategsenty) oe doenent on etal Shion of The ow example shui srveto empha hand abo ‘Moarate ther Gcermoutos ial Gatton wi exponent a BRAMPLE G14 Acinic nl in wenn ng ei Hoajen 20 "is dian of bre ere ome ora) te Tipe wyotin Tie pms od may ean ws Ea Saad Fane t-eet “Ta ring 25, Wrens rm E42, ‘me rmee asrarrore rons ils ‘Thee an tnd ition eg eX, ep 4 a 4. he nn % unre 4s Antal ase ih api POF Hiab Senn, a3 Session Graple 30 vernon The stbutoe he hepa he om ‘Stes er lore ge tte Type nope a hg assed he ura aoe Rye ope ee afar ais tue sa mtleg—{S)rammen meee cee ees: rane + asad 5) From he eu ofthe ast wo examples (Example 414 td 415), we hat Ute steal praeteras wells the men sd sadn devon i fnctonsfez morsove th spiel fh ftom depend on hen tb ‘ou In per er he exponential itbeton (Example 414 ay and lorcet am ween od ye constants nd tere indepen {fi However, inthe seo te Raye inital sributon (Expl 5) the ‘quanti yan, nen with ln, whereas the dipesion Un a8 2) For norm inl varites, se Example 43 for expesion any 433, Tee Type Armpit Form -Exeme vale om an inal strut with polyoma (ihe dieion the aprorate exes) wil converge sterol, a detbatlon tthe “Type Tt asympote for (Gumbe 195). or the large a, the Type Th = ee The character large vale of the ni varie X 1 The shape paremeer: ies menue a ierion Seen inthe same wy 6th i fora il varie, BaF an ‘Ana siege mot protease of 7 oF noe ‘Patynomil Til Aa ni csebton with piynomil ai nown the ‘Gosh arct pe unlimited ine cveion he ervene an rage Jim 0h ~ FAG = aay shrek > Oand sits postin constant or lagen ahing bg 447 Bawaba (ste ue rane asyurronic roms 7 ene, te debut ote pst au, E42 becomes ran-[ 6) Erpancing thin a binomial serie a observing that or laren y=, we oni ic abviomiy the Type amp om of E445 thi were thatthe ‘Eiston ofthe rps tale fm a cattsion of te Cucy/Porco ‘ype. wl eovegforrgenohe Type symptom "The Type Und I asymptotic forse etd by theo gather ranjrmain "Pes he Type 11 emptor urban Eg, ih pra and ‘hedbunaf a Yihane the Type asym Eg 419,ohparamcters mek, aed ek To show shi suppose hit’, has 2 Type Masato debuton wih puraeten ea tt B9 £88 The dnbation may be derived floes nae “Than the drbutin fi Fag = 601 =~ tte detae the CDF of X, becomes Ff) sel) hat vehing the above parithmi ansoraton Sapo ttt nt ditin don le x gral ih pets SNCS Na petiwin me p= et = Angora 8 he (paca ge is pel Sap absoe ts boli EK ace few rine oe Sobre mere (oY reense am no--E 6)" oof-(2)] _ nc is the shape parameter gain lk 4 measure of eapersion. "Atwih Eg err eon ae Fae as Moreover equi the modal of ta i nan ‘The logarsthncwansfrmation Between he Type ad It asymptotic dia. ons applies othe dstrbtens of erence mae oie tle hat Ing thor heyy eteprne ddr as postne preter ond chen Ie arth pet asprin vith aromatic = nd = I igh te above lgaritimetenormation th wanda tal arate of Fg 434 emer Swesks—0) itn, ine) = kr an Equation 452 dees he sanded excel variate he Tye Il ag ‘alu. According, the comeltie picts of Ty say baited oe, "Mose ablated er Tae 2 lon r= nfve2) as Smlacy, fom 438 we obi he conmponing samara extemal sani frthe Type small oor Povey ed) Eeeeray (ne sd th cumultie robabiti of maybe bane fas Tale 21s flows: Frin=1~r-t02) 550 Moment and Moment Genrig Fnctons From Be 4.5, bin Ya ne ‘Teg heh momen 74 Br) = ear = 408m nS ih a te mace ign 5 geo by Ea Hen, Yr) = aru — ae) as ‘Ome ht ony momen of one 1 < kei (Gumbel 195, ‘With bq 434 he aban tbe men ae of Foe &s sndiork 3, “Th he variance of Yt oumefi( 3-9-3] 9 ‘Tecnico atin 8. thers en by anPaar 4 Reon ben 2008 pts Equation 457 shown guphicly In Fig 44, which maybe wed 1 eae Iban gen dy or Se come Owe tat art A oe soe of Creer Beate simian beween as. 452 4nd4S2, flows thatthe moments ofthe smallest vara oy be deen om hows Th Bry = run) as From this th mean and vac of re asso ‘me runes astweroTc roaws a} erase eet of vari of the same shat of babe example 47 scsi Cat Pea pct nite Pas to wi be SSowaror faat-§ esac ae x eh eo ic sera pepe rs te ance panne ceo es ‘Shiai wiliauec tel onann tem one ee The etal dation Fee 240) rigeinet x20 “Fp ten oom i pe ay be oul fon or els Ea my Reon enemy eye an tn pt ent a “Tepe fr mtb mia ba rag By tt Faso22 sansmes or xrnaues For hepr Panes i ¢ = 2a, 424, Te Type Aaymptti Form Both te Type 1 and asymptote dtlbaons are the ening forms of he wher te parameter sth characte lest cleo X, ined by Faget} ay snes puma: Te hr een pi eu te whereas i meas te dpi 2, Acted ital dsibton ay be exposed a aan) ere he oper ini a of 4c tht Fy) = 10. The eet vale oath ann conn aloo te ype ayes re ‘on fe. "th 2 he CDF of he aes vale ct Xt rwo-[ CT spot hn etc bee fae (S52 eters pis ich is th Type asymptotic fom of E438, 3 te sey ei eee to t ripeton- i conesponding PDF range! we ‘nsieeealieeaeiemnaionenianieemigesat ree when a menue of he 2 n tine oft tallest vale was devoped who by Webat (951) nconocive witb study of figue nnd face cetera, [lis koown alo athe Weal rutin “te Typ il semi orme altl the Type [asymp rm ie fotowing manne ‘Sieroom which Ze en on wetre ‘Then, he dts of 2, of he Type asymptote farm othe rest ‘hls, Bp 4S wb parameter ym and edison , would be wae ad gah Thereof, as te Type I arympotedstbuin ofthe Ig ale swith Souper bd wand praia and k then xine Mlle Z.Me— wi) asthe Tope] sample: din wit parce y= 404s, = ‘Sir, the ermal are 2, asthe Type Hapa Garba of snes ele wits arate a Ue varie (224) wl bve be Type Lasrmpoi drut ofthe smal vale wt parameters Tieemgen In igh of he aSovereaonhps eteenX, and Zand bawernX, so Z- 465) “Terre te cua probabiiy of Z may be bai om Table Aa raiberf-am(2=2)] a By oesanetokn te mndri Type I een ite fre at so -an(Z=t) «sn, ‘Hence te cormaponding protien of 2, may be bind fom Table A2 rayn=Ff-re(2=)] a ‘me riage asurronec roms as Moment and Masiene Geeraing Funcom From the sandaané Type It ‘ema vain Eg 055 eae sd (-2-(o- me “Takig te expectations foi se, me btn Blo ~ 2 =(a~ w JE") (a= nd) Tensor +m) eo Equation 46, therdoe geste eh momat of (a 2) om whic te corrionding more’ of Zap be obtained Oa hs baw obi he meas valet, pene —ie wort +h) m, sehr, wih 49, he variance of Z, 8 oband a flo: Be = BP =o — myer + 28) Hex, cha Vato - 2) =(o- mA + 2m) — T+ YI} 47D, Wi Eas. 70 and 47, we oti the flowing ato: +(e) ao an rm Sechamen aston gel ie Aaron A hacia For tte Type lt sempnte dibton of te salle vale, we ob with Eg her Bz, — 2 = 0m, — 980) Serie epee amy Fron twat en ond tn, ow pacer ro ~ ahevae,-o-e-offr(143)—e( 2] 079 a isa “rosie =chp alte tiie 4, cet ‘pp te ina bon baw Oame nt sit devon cf ea re 2, nity ependiag onthe behavior afte ntl dbuion (he detion ofthe ee er ar ‘nation may bch and thee woul be question about wich sep {otc fom i spproprate For emp for inl wre th he export fr normal PDF, the als ae carly exponential decaying the Geom of Siege vale othe art: bee, the dation of the age val om eer ‘tae sates wicooverge tthe Type yn om. Intec 2 “Quon of mnalen vale wi ao conver ote Type emptor “Therese cses, ower, which theta ene ee obs and con surtly quo ee ting for ate dren the eee aloes ‘mayan. Mather aresalleto provide dancer ths pry Smart har ae vou Mie Ciera tr Sourettg the npc rss ot ibaon of te exone ve om at ital arte ¥ wih CDF Fs} Comrync 1 Type LAnymptti Farm The ere vase of X wil covet ‘dacbaton tobe Type exymptt form rege i {aal-° «mn 1s runes asrurroric roms 239 ahs) he his anton of 428 Equation 47 applies othe rps {ie of th Corespeding serio or he ait alae woul am sehr hes en by a. 2 exanrte a ot ep en itn i ah pe dn fialniews 20 m1 Fin= eee, ‘E97 le ‘tol ft a a fo a non onv po Bet cen ee ao cer rth te lowing expen farniess x20 1h Pieee W rapnes see Theta fasion. £439, wit ‘aves sn 7 “ee hsmals u on heoeenn nil ie wi cone 0 ‘ac Type yan ta oa ty BA xanieue 430 Comer in rte wit eR dts Ma Sewmee, x20rane Seeptchion ht Fe pins ete itn fee mF Raped acon see te pet rep ‘Fre atee Gone treat te vei LX fray. = 0 ues oo sso om tl se opp oe ‘Soe wp rar at be pet ens Ear bow Comrzencet» Type I Aspe Form The exe vale from a ini ‘are wil covege orbit she Type I asymp fr fo te args aloe lin hia) =k; > Qa constant am ‘wherans comverpnce tobe Type I aympttic form fo the males vale wi ard ln -xh@) =k 0 «sn eaneree «21 ‘Sop on il eX wih loing Pt bin btbedeomwes 540, ter yt we runt asrwerone rows 231 ntti tg ine rapineT eee raved te tena nn 0 eno Comrrncew Type Ill Anympoe Frm The lrg vale from an inal ‘arate ml converge in rutin) othe Type asymp ora if F(@)=10; for wper bound» lin(o— Ale) =A; 4> O,acontant «an For the sale valve fom an initial vate X with ower bod te co pong eaoa ‘ Fyo=0 wa Ima oye k>0 am Basle «22 Manis saneTao fr te ye gE 8 els =_—oe Soo terre een ae B42 eet s cee atoms ig e—» w=) eth ca te apg ain ws ual 29 a he arn ipet te aotenoripen te Type snmp om "Eero oft ahi ame = he arin client) os epee Type cope See ‘lke Te sop ne ro 1 oe ioe Raaawb PDF COP, [tt] ‘Then th ino eae alr Ho a nis Rah enw ‘he Stliity Paste The exsence of he symp forms te dsrbton| exwenes based so the pres that te frm of = prose Stbaon ‘Siow under inca vansrmation Thus thedstbtion oh ne ‘atic nil arate X mayb eprene ea fncton ota Fem = Flan +b9 cs) er, nd by ar fection afm Equation 483i called the abit ponte {Goma 195); soluons cathe ponte Imig form of Fa) 05 db that wl sty Eq 483 aiferet iting {sat athe fancion Fa) wl see corms wee erie by Fer nd ‘Tipp (1928) tat Gombe subenoety caled the tee types faye {ems Howeve- theese forms of he ti diario: who etree aes the spe se or example cn bea al In par, ‘ei disebton one fe beeper arympoti forme. edb fhomoftreteme val ue rine ssrurrone roms 283 For exalts intial dibaton Fa) = elo ten the CDF ofits rps vale among samples of. equa, ae my, esnding 12 Fae) = enna oper ‘of the iil variate X, excep tha the distribution shifted to the right by (inion shown in Fig Astor he PDF “The paral af, therore ele thos of Xa los wn ‘The th eorsponding met and andar devon of, a ton See ieee ra0~onf-(0 wrt th FOF oe ete rome Tipe rape tun‘gee POF ote eg aon te pe ante ion tte CDF of he lags aloe among samples of any sew fom X wosk be, Scoring oy 2 “Thi simply mean tht te dttoe oY, ofthe sme Type sympate ‘ermarthe in dition wh the serena var X= ec Shy wade nig 49 fore PDF aly ii nl vari bain of the Type amp form, a) eorpaing OF he re et rae ich it so the same Type I aye isibation a ht ofthe tit strut, with aes oo ~ 5) ped by (0 = 2) = (0 = sh tt apna: crs ene om a whe» CDF that's of te me eorerpondingsempsic farm In shor, the dracn of the extreme oman arp form wl Toi f the ae mateo. Tsou be emphasize thatthe vee psf aso forms dscsed thos fae not exis: tat the tee pes do net ieee al pst semiotic dbs of eens oii possible ta te asymp su ‘arf the entero an tal vate ny nos ting to ay of Gumbee thee oper of sammpote fom. Neve the fre perf seympose ‘ecco sistbuton presente hee shoul coer mow ot al the posible Fenbemore ts otis ata erate belonging oe ‘mmo orm, wheres tbe oe eee (4 the Salle) Delong 1 ‘Shier asap frm, We onda in Earp 0 sod 423, 444 EXTREMAL PROBABILITY PAPERS 441 The Gane stem Prbaity Paper ‘in he procure dered in Chapter 6 of Votune probably paper can beonstrcd rte Type I sympote dbl fats et he ante ‘rats the cpt tn aleve wee pe, expen, in Ean Tsetse ad senate, 0) ‘As ete probity pape muy thes be conse with abe fs sexed on on ans Ua artmetiewaeh and the ast cumulative probable, Fie) = expe) pen onthe ane (x prt ais The te (perpendel) ‘i verte wer ofthe renal are yi arma scale. The ‘ult robb ner shown a Fie 4s duets ambeland secre ‘Spy inowe a te Cab Preaily Pape ‘tag ine wh pote dope o th Gumbel probably pape, teen repesets a peice Type T ype detrbuton forte ares mal, [ER419; wheter sarah ine witht eae lope would repent» Type ‘Synod rh salts hat E33. “Acordingy. lp aes fom » population ofthe exponential type ae plied on his extemal probably paper ach hat the mh val neg de) i plod atthe pobatlty Nye res shoulé show 8 eat ‘end with pote slope Sry. salt vale pte om paper ‘rah the mh robo lores ode plated ath pono (I —eQN © DS, ‘Berea toad a nde a sated wih nepre Spe “The statis xtmation of th pate andy, of ade 8st of eve rae dita the sbjt of Sston £6 Howee, te pret ‘aay al be etinated apronimaely by guphcaly ding sept ne ‘Seog te plot ata points onthe Guero paper (8 ne ‘end Sere The parameter, would the be he tl 4 Somali probably of 0368 or +=. aod Ia, te soe te Sig ae that Tin (ag taliand 9, = sey26 stansncs oF exreeues 3 Tee | eS ear 8- Goo nvm oa EXAMPLE 624 (Cpe Lares) Eaieentiooaecoce: re eo eee ee eotany ppnow nig Bae To as fem dp may bt Soe oees eee Each ee step may tind exreout poms aren 97 Toke E434 Aone Maina Eee Merde peg nad of dein. For cas tel eae ge mn ny reo ci Fer wm toe psy ora A> M21 Fe = 1093-007 BeanrLe 425 ‘Wins Ravers! Moun Cae noc mesued betes th rr 1086 tod 1958 ke Seas a eae sca meer Se eS Secagee 134 Laat meat nh Camb pty pape ‘Aghia en ee rou detapoinel ig 425 Ont he [Esato pel ap tone nd peaima RT roby O68 we bin = ee zag 34 oe merece inp ne 4642 The Lourie sre Proaity Paper 4 Secon 43, we stv tat te Type and I anrmptote rex varies X, ‘hd Yar rete byte opr eanormaion Furthermore the Type I stndardin enn vrtis pen in. 4528 Saku) exact ohonuaery earens 299 Tages maroc Pont na Rao Cum ts Dua fon {oe (topes robaby paper forte Type ltd Type carpio SGseatoes. Fors Type I ret arate, alae of Toprol, wheres the sine probably sae #46) =fa A 5 A t t i i a F # i TE pees ‘Pr £125 fama Sato fe Waa Rie Move Cam i {Be sander varie S = kia ys) theca of Type ara aris, he lope sale repens ala o's) en fhe same roby le ‘pps to be sunerdvarsteS = “Elna 2M = wa) ‘Acordingy the Type and Type asymp dsbutons of he repetive lags va gu 445 and th are represen y rig Ines 0 te 1g. et at Fal teal probably paper a shown in Fig. 43a and 498, The pranete 6208 BE Grab ete ules mat rpc nr ee epee 8 Sign 0 ee epee | woe pe Seat on my banc esc, Wins lg a ea: af + ~ {or the Ty “ 1 aoe veetst 4) H forthe Type I ret eee 435) uM“exrneuae erobauury rareas 43 “The above logeremal probably pape lo appa for te Tye and Type seal variates In theese he gun odes pen {he alas oy (=) where the standard artes are = ny] forthe Typetfsnatetands~ —A Lae ~ ell ~ leet Tysons ‘ata rnb Fin 100d Ah Spey Sh het oh pr “iy pape hen repent te Tpe i288 Type semper: {the salt les: The vals on the epee rai ines at t=O oF Fa) = 0368 re the vals of the pram r,t or ~ 0. A, te Soe ‘lpocding slop af tine iste pens prem erodag os gs 4Strund Gs ny boobed | forthe Tpeitamatat (434) r toe (oe Type at (= (850 EXAMPLE 426 (Type I Large) ‘Toot npr tts asst ne wn pho eign Alban Ae ‘omibotiap Bog usows a Tobe Tram wee ees sa ofa {124 £m ai ala itt Wome a246 sransnecs or exces | re! Sanayi et 14 Ao en i wk pd td et py (th pen ote meres Tet arene ning, sn on ese gilt ene ind Eprtrtou trianpoeuserpaor sine apeuneh = fh "ebb eat wh ren wa tne tint am esi in somite ig Fr samp oa moa a pel ng ‘Stag 05 a3 Comer mar wid se Corenocing Soni obey 09507 mre EXAMPLE 427 (Cpe Smale ‘omnes aii evel pty pp 2 Type erate ‘et so og of ee a ot (AST) ye nnn sou = 0 et ug ee = 9) sion te ogni page non Fig Xi romp Poole eit moma only eompeag es) (9919 « a hig a eti3t Page a psn cogent ee246 stansnes oF exrnoues “Toes = $30 «Jee Toe heh a dw rough ed it Pipe ould andy oy ae Same wane ~ sao ec fe gh or he hv of a nai sete nis ee Fran san Wal ase ye Sines 85 egal ata 451 DisiinFeeProtiliy (OF spe imporane in conection with exremesaiu dts the problem of forcing fore ecndaes of previo) obexved eee, realised, ‘Se freasrhaveo bested tear of probabiiySoch probes cou awe [npctns in seven! areas of engineering apleationsieacing he foresating Slee uraltaads Aswesballobeve ie rotity fsck exces nny beindoencent abe probably itbooe fonctions tht ditboton Suppose thet here are obervations (2a, ) om past records ‘nfrecticg we may ish now the prota he res among hese ‘evn chara wil e ceded N utreobervatens Fr stance. Theo: yy ss) could bea sequence f the ergs anual Wid pes bee tat ein planning te Geis of an important rce Soke wind damage sta importa consrton we might regu &forcat ‘5 thems vid speed ite ent 0 pear Suh oven maybe expres ‘in term ofthe proba tht te ober maaimam Mind in he peo ® ‘en il te enced fz ene The potty Obie Boo ij theres amon the ror obser hat = me ey xyidtatmerate = iy aestateenoan ptneeie van tee ita depend the povaby tet agea meng bred ‘ales om the seme poplin Xi Few) 19 (2) roars Non atthe amon bn eran be fora es Ps) = FA" For any y that the large among previo obteratons we obtain by cot th abve to epunone reeen=e [ewar ana ‘isbn meth ri 1) + POs n= as, excenpance mronanuiry —34t Equation 486 he robot tha thea vale among previous obra ‘one wil atte exes in Nature obeveions: Convert the probity Uta he previ ose lrg sae wil be exoused nN Sobeeqnt ‘heats, oe a > FG (4360 “Toeabove poten can brerendlo the nore general roblemof deers ‘ne prbabity tat the th valoe, (counted Gor he bottom) wl be sce ‘ier re obras "esume st i i oberon ae independent samples om the se population X wa the datbuion faneton Fe) In agy hue observation TR protity ht he ote ale wll es haa 8 4 an he oh iy of bel arge than 8 ~ Fy the ah abe aoe hee ‘bus be (k~ vals tt te sale abo ~ fest ae equal arg than There the prota ht ete hase mage notes, Card meme aiiena wre F = Fs) The pobbily tit exact» among N fre oburatont win=()ru-er “Terre conderingal pase ales oy, me obtain he equi prbabiny cinta =A(;)(%) fer Weotseve tht he atoventegal iso the ts c spear Teor Tera earn Since the qn a inepertcan be sbown tatas stunsnes oy exrseuas ese, he probity hatte tb vale among r reviou obrtons be alto exde re a uta cbervations WM = astm RAE an weeny “Th rota hala provolyoberve ertilo wil not be seeded sp Nae sberatons, trea Bas Oe obanet meh Ba 7 ne HOInRM= ich’ he seme ah eto = 4.86 We aber that Ege 486 88487 ae Bo edepeatet oft nal dts Fle It 4A a N= ce NN +) = Lh shows that fe the abe of py! bmiaton the robbie ceedings prevosy ober ret “aloe pouches crit the bserationa peed woul org xu 47 sao the probaly fncoe tty among fare ober ‘ies ee smal han the hss among n previous stoevatins a "iceaoned rom the pn tht ease Bq 8s a the rose tht futrecbervaonsthre willbe ttc lethal umber nthe revs ‘haere sls se Euston 447 hur bem ed athe base or modeling ydrolope extremes ‘in the desig of watercota projes (Chow and Taxaee 197 gph foo curl a ben gn oe aes ton oben ote a ‘Sheen atte prema se acnSoyan eases lope Bene "Par ponhy peso ta wee gw ngs eid fee aa se ae 90 oa ht the i ntl ppat aca oh Ey a Thee ee Reanimation sentosnertine 452 Siieanes of Prbay Dison In Seon 51, the pobaity of excel «previo obsered masa (cei) isa ure series ofebseraon was deemed wibou eaeace {oe vas of te undeycg vaste or fe ibuton: However, many eiering uae. be dstbuiae fe fhe pr osrations wel {ste dtrtton of tbe faut observas may be wala; Tor example ‘Ke nstutoo fhe anual oo and anual maim win may bea he ‘Siena peta sach cnc mor acres ofthe mul eens Teste navn (or popaion) wth dbuton function Fhe (CDF ofthe maximus spi of se nfm ¥ milous ave he CDF Fago= Uex0 Now ifthe initia diibuion oi Type asymp tii Fb) e9f=e 9) the dba of he rae anon sample oie om X wou be Feber ela cenoesewinan Hower. stheobstre rst lu tm seve of previous observations Goosen Yom ales 08) ‘he om i sing sample fsa we have Fod=t wih mean hat he et tina Tn Tote oberon te bain sarge valu woul e (sng aan red = Ho" a wich means tat Fos Type aya dition with parameters nny Ot‘There he rst vale ames previa sberaon om Te srt arate se atone be arg among re beans ‘Sen by lh Ons ta the proy tate nrg fo fre herons Wile he peo chard matin aon» ee Pty > im 1 —eapl—eran nen Tilem a ‘Tk may be mre wi he dc ne protaty of By 486, ‘The iferece ete we es maybe sea om he wg Tian roe ae Boon an ‘Tes show that Ege contest gis lamer exeadace probit. (Conver the probity of xa s previo obwed real ‘Tote obsvatlon inspec the vale fhe aay, uy be eerie follows Soppse p= the speed probability of exer thes, eee from which we bai te“ ae” sant fey mig ne be on meas en ‘nape 24 gt nd ow chee rnd $y re 86d ‘age ‘Tepes hi ste minnie ede ering Oye. eine ay eaea eo RX, )=1- 0" wasn tool Cad eat aca ctanr pao = EE abtypet eycpcuc anus steamship ost [tia lingo =ahimocaands = Oot 0" fom Eumpe O Fala) alemere Conv. son dg ae fos) 6 sins ‘ent i ied we bai "donor yas lig 088 fn i + ara (8 oa ein hie ee ioe opened (SSSR.ALS Stabe sah terpenes toe cw {S225 So munca ot nobel ia eof al ma eae rama eccentric taars reat -=[-4)]28 stansnes or eerasues . “Therefore, Yeas Type I nymptte vara wis parameters kek sd sete wen: iy the chee size vente spe smh 5 = J Th fetareotarvatons om thea iia varie we hae apn woke ‘ne bity pe) Feb) = TFT = eon sof) ‘Ain, with’ = te probaly of Yy exceeding the previously obsered ines alae ttre Poet 59.488 "Comer th “dee i coapoding ese poet» hat ‘sow ‘for sal p,— tn 9) = pts, naoerft)” 2 saunas oo Ip Ean: 2g fr a amen in nel a Oe ya ang tng CO a ee veer Sau sired eyes cartes (Sere ud empleo arp i Bt ‘acy ted papa i samp sade nn >n-i-efQ] {iseabveuaduce poets aint oe deren Sy te wel hpentyey es a0 = (2) = 86.098 role of obining le than previous oer mai valu conser ana variate wth he Type I asymp Stibuton of the uma vale ‘hich remains Type I symp strut wih parameters ; beh say (4-2 —eeet Fee) = =U = FT 1-0 For \ (eon {ey wists hay 2 the abet vale among observe sari Params a faeg=t ich means, = 2gs stansnes or xssss “Toast probity tht the mat ae among far berate wl ‘lesan be male fear ae Pane 2) Ata hie ihe same a. 39. “owever tn proba fing et than «iene valine teeraton seal lobe pe bas be crespondng“desenSoales salsa fw Fale 9 oles From hs me obtain he “sign vale” sane cs of zie sea ol (4940) EXAMPLE «31 ‘a Example 35, nual eh owe 7 re ow) oe Fog Re at ‘ese wh pe tympani ste ve Tera et ‘Sonne lg ow ‘Peta ma fot ces ug ye pi wa ‘i eer rt aren vin wwe ines eo Eso rate ti sone ro 5D overhear 0 ye tant ~en{-n( Fa sxrovarow oF extRewat MRAMETERS 285, Deeg 446 ESTIMATION OF EXTREMAL PARADOETERS 461. Remaris on Brene Vale Estiaton Envene vale data arin moa te ime-contming anor cay 0 aequle For rangle ih gud ioe sca axioum food af ser, oman Inquire one ear tomes he spe say oe wherein the ce of oO fnaionsarigues ay of uct maptude >) may take weve yu ‘re ne ng tua wl earns pen Teo. “Toe samp a of stalable creme valve da hte is ually sma. Ccomegueny, in eelanting the parma of a extene vale dbution, Shh at tor ors gen tampa form, te sencton or we ofthe “ea” fnchd of erin w more crcl tan whes Gra sampling or aqui {ES rescue Tara when tne anal data we ted the ned to optimise {he Sanya etoaton prcature nooner more portant “Arwinobrsonton requig atta sng nd esion Chapt ‘va on aad wh the problmf making frees about an tndering ‘oplaon oeatenevaern te present es on te bas aie maples ot ‘SEpopunton Toe chee of couse to cemane bees te wwe Factcteofhepoplaon probaly dnution For this paper thre Tiny be itent way Ge fone etnatr fonction) o esting © en ert, ih epee quae: The any ofan imatrgeeraly ‘cnn by i uobiatnesr Gack af bia) and eticeocy (as mesa y Is ‘uno ely anenimator shoul be ated ab ha al rine 3s pase "Pons methodsof parametersiaton ete meta maximum tod she method of moment For the eatin of teen proces mr ‘num ikcood canna have bes devo or enanpe by Kenta (1940); [Exec such sutra no snl rate and ay bine fr Sal ‘Spey ve though bey may beaten The method of mrmens has bea ed ine nonin of aprcatacrnvling extemer fr example, Gamba! (1981 ed Pose (990 tat ter thd, the ater and ec te es286 suanstcs oF exrneuss inaor are compat and dca o ean esirng muti meri «lateations (Lhe 1980) An orestatsie method had ben developed {ei (183 or estimating te paraetese Tpe and Type) eae ‘ope drbutons The meted yi mini warner unlsed enter. Teta conenate ft on he eination ofthe paranters he Type 1 ssp dsouton for he pes wae; namely he parameters 4, ad tbe i8,0r Fels) ecole ‘Theesimaton te purameetsy the metho moments ieles estimation {the appropriate staple omen rom te spl dat asuly oe spe ‘nea, Stn the spe variance, ad on cecason th isd moment few. ‘arvand ten emosing te ptameiers sang the prin reoshipe ‘Seen he parameters an temple moments ne Chap Vl fe he (i ole parameters or he Typel symp drt fhe are a ‘Serena reflow) "rom Bas 44 and 42 Pag tee wd Ten. merece the sbovepopltios moments 884, by the cresponding surge mementa 3, snd forthe mores excise cea prams te here. ass) — 90) Yen. ‘Se Oper 5, VoL he eisinton of he sample mean, 5, nd the spe Sangarédeviion oom et ol apie alors, 443 The Maho of Ore Staite ‘A metho, tad on the tory fonder sai, was dewoped by Leben (95) expres or stating the extemal parameter ad othe Type ompuoc dation, £9419. Tee on arc ites oe eb {nd pes minimum varie oreo, te ae sgl op. Tat Slee cam be seal evant (Ln, 195) an be batho fo Be Imech higher hn tote heresies dig te omen ean {srimari0w oF exvnemat ronamerens 357 shearer sti mato ised on leer ction ost ofodeel| sample alo tat te Sow aon ees £1 5-~ ant ih yb gd re th veh sanded vr ta rns rab eke alae “Then the eimitr of 497 becomes be Beat thai) ane ree weighs an are fonctions ofan. Tn order ise a biased {nd imino vace inator or gen a2 phe olowing codons sy epee B= 4+ by 498) Vax) = minim aon, ‘Euntioe 497 wih he anes of and oben onthe bas of as 498 and {55 terse, let dated timate fncton Aso the co ‘eroding hunni aro imal nd, Woabe to Bon 109 io bes 209 “The leant st of wep and by that sy Eqs 498 and 49 have been hand by Lite (1958) form = hough wah p= 09; hee alae are ‘produced in Table Adm Append A "Fo tc of termine Lends 00» andthe xoetnce rrabay pt shore in Fip St. For te purpose of exenal parame Simation we re tested oly the ange p= O90. Asay be en fom Fig til, te rie enc of te enim ie th range of peer peter than 8% fr asample se fe = 83. Apparent here ot ach 1 i ee Ln 13