Ruth Maureen C.

Rillon
MSC5000

Exercise 4.48

Sample Space gender

male female Totals
Dessert ordered yes 96 40 136
no 224 240 464
Totals 320 280 600

Simple Probabilities
P(yes ) 0.23
P(no) 0.77
P(Male) 0.53
P(Female) 0.47

Joint Probabilities
P(yes and Male) 0.16
P(yes and Female) 0.07
P(no and Male) 0.37
P(no and Female) 0.40

Addition Rule
P(yes or Male) 0.60
P(yes or Female) 0.63
P(no or Male) 0.93
P(no or Female) 0.84

Sample Space Beef Entrée

yes no Totals
dessert ordered yes 71 65 136
no 116 348 464
Totals 187 413 600

Simple Probabilities
P(yes ) 0.23
P(no) 0.77
P(yes) 0.31
P(no) 0.69

Joint Probabilities
P(yes and yes) 0.12
P(yes and no) 0.11
P(no and yes) 0.19
P(no and no) 0.58

Addition Rule
P(yes or yes) 0.42
P(yes or no) 0.81
 P(no or yes) 0.89
P(no or no) 0.88

A waiter approaches a table to take an order. What is the probability that the first
customer to order at the table
A. orders a dessert- 23%
B. does not order a beef entrée?- 69%
C. orders a dessert or a beef entrée?- 42%
D. is a female and does not order a dessert?- 40%
E. orders a dessert and beef entrée?- 12%
F. is a female or does not order a dessert- 84%
G. Suppose the first person that the waiter takes the dessert order from is a female. What
is the probability that she does not order dessert?
P(A/B)= P( A & B)
P (A)
= 240/600
280/600
= .8571 or 86%
H. Suppose the first person that the waiter takes the dessert order from ordered a beef
entrée. What is the probability that that this person orders dessert?
P(A/B)= P( A & B)
P (A)
= 71/600
187/600
= .3797 or 38%
I. Are gender and ordering dessert statistically independent?
Not Statistically independent because P(male/orders dessert) is not equal to
P(male)
P(A/B) = P(A) P(A) = 320/600 = 0.5333
P(A/B) = 96/600
136/600
= 0.7059

J. Is ordering a beef entrée statistically independent of whether the person orders dessert?
Not Statistically independent because P(beef/orders dessert) is not equal to
P(beef)P(orders dessert)
P(A & B) = P(A)P(B) P(A)P(B)= (187/600)(136/600)
P(A & B) = 71/600 = (.3117)(.2267)
= .1183 = 0.0707

Exercise 5.47
a. The 0.74 probability reported by BBM Bureau of Measurement is best classified
as an empirical classical probability because outcomes are obtained from
observed data or the surveys conducted.
b. Suppose that 10 viewers of a cinema advertisement are randomly sampled.
Consider the random variable defined by the number of viewers that recall the
 advertisement. What assumption must be made in order to assume that this
variable is distributed as a binomial random variable?
For the number of viewers that recall the cinema advertisement to be
distributed as a binomial random variable, we need to assume that (1) the
probability of each returned response is the same and (2) the result of one
returned response does not affect the result of another.
c. Assuming that the number of viewers that recall the cinema advertisement is a
binomial random variable, what are the mean and standard deviation of this
distribution?

cinema advertising

Data
Sample size 10
Probability of
success 0.74

Statistics
Mean 7.4
Variance 1.924
Standard deviation 1.387083

d. If none of the viewers can recall the ad, what can be inferred about the 0.74
probability given in the article?
P(X=0) = 10!/ 0!(10-0)!(.74)0 (1-.74) 10-0
= (.26) 10
= 1.41167E-06
There is 1.41167E-06 chance that none of the viewers will recall the cinema
advertisement.

X P(X) P(<=X) P(<X) P(>X) P(>=X)

0 1.41E-06 1.41E-06 0 0.999999 1
1 4.02E-05 4.16E-05 1.41E-06 0.999958 0.999999
2 0.000515 0.000556 4.16E-05 0.999444 0.999958
3 0.003906 0.004462 0.000556 0.995538 0.999444
4 0.019453 0.023915 0.004462 0.976085 0.995538
5 0.066439 0.090354 0.023915 0.909646 0.976085
6 0.157581 0.247935 0.090354 0.752065 0.909646
7 0.256285 0.50422 0.247935 0.49578 0.752065
8 0.273535 0.777755 0.50422 0.222245 0.49578
9 0.173005 0.95076 0.777755 0.04924 0.222245
10 0.04924 1 0.95076 0 0.04924

Compute the probability that of the 10 viewers:

e. exactly zero can recall the advertisement- 1.41E-06
f. exactly one can recall the advertisement- 4.02E-05
g. exactly two can recall the advertisement- 0.000515
 h. all 10 can recall the advertisement- 0.04924
i. more than half can recall the advertisement- 0.909646
j. eight or more can recall the advertisement- 0.49578
k. Repeat c, e-j for a television advertisement using the given probability of recall,
0.37.
Statistics
Mean 3.7
Variance 2.331
Standard deviation 1.526761

X P(X) P(<=X) P(<X) P(>X) P(>=X)

0 0.009849 0.009849 0 0.990151 1
1 0.057845 0.067694 0.009849 0.932306 0.990151
2 0.152876 0.220571 0.067694 0.779429 0.932306
3 0.239425 0.459996 0.220571 0.540004 0.779429
4 0.246076 0.706072 0.459996 0.293928 0.540004
5 0.173425 0.879497 0.706072 0.120503 0.293928
6 0.084877 0.964375 0.879497 0.035625 0.120503
7 0.028485 0.99286 0.964375 0.00714 0.035625
8 0.006273 0.999133 0.99286 0.000867 0.00714
9 0.000819 0.999952 0.999133 4.81E-05 0.000867
10 4.81E-05 1 0.999952 0 4.81E-05

Compute the probability that of the 10 viewers:

l. exactly zero can recall the advertisement- 0.009849
m. exactly one can recall the advertisement- 0.057845
n. exactly two can recall the advertisement- 0.152876
o. all 10 can recall the advertisement- 4.81E-05
p. more than half can recall the advertisement- 0.120503
q. eight or more can recall the advertisement- 0.00714
Exercise 5.50
a. What assumptions do you need to make in order to use the binomial distribution to
model the number of surveys returned?
The assumption needed to model the number of surveys returned by the
binomial distribution are (1) the probability of each returned response is the
same and (2) the result of one returned response does not affect the result of
the other.

Statistics
Mean 32.6
Variance 21.9724
Standard deviation 4.687473

b. What is the expected value, or mean, of the binomial distribution? 32.6

c. What is the standard deviation of the binomial distribution? 4.687473
X P(X) P(<=X) P(<X) P(>X) P(>=X)
 25 0.023157 0.06255 0.039393 0.93745 0.960607
26 0.032309 0.094859 0.06255 0.905141 0.93745
27 0.04283 0.137689 0.094859 0.862311 0.905141
28 0.05401 0.191699 0.137689 0.808301 0.862311
29 0.064858 0.256557 0.191699 0.743443 0.808301
30 0.074244 0.330801 0.256557 0.669199 0.743443
31 0.081087 0.411888 0.330801 0.588112 0.669199
32 0.084569 0.496457 0.411888 0.503543 0.588112
33 0.084287 0.580745 0.496457 0.419255 0.503543
34 0.080337 0.661082 0.580745 0.338918 0.419255
35 0.073274 0.734356 0.661082 0.265644 0.338918
36 0.063991 0.798347 0.734356 0.201653 0.265644
37 0.053537 0.851884 0.798347 0.148116 0.201653
38 0.042931 0.894815 0.851884 0.105185 0.148116
39 0.033011 0.927825 0.894815 0.072175 0.105185
40 0.024349 0.952174 0.927825 0.047826 0.072175

d. What is the probability that 30 or fewer surveys will be returned? 0.330801

e. What is the probability that 25 or fewer surveys will be returned? 0.06255
f. What is the probability that more than 40 surveys will be returned? 0.047826
g. What is the probability that at least 30 but no more than 35 surveys will be
returned? 0.4778
h. If Arbirton increases the cash incentive so that the response rate is 40%, what are
the answers to a-f?

i. What assumptions do you need to make in order to use the binomial distribution to
model the number of surveys returned?
The assumption needed to model the number of surveys returned by the
binomial distribution are (1) the probability of each returned response is the
same and (2) the result of one returned response does not affect the result of
the other.

Statistics
Mean 40
Variance 24
Standard deviation 4.898979

j. What is the expected value, or mean, of the binomial distribution? 40

k. What is the standard deviation of the binomial distribution? 4.898979
X P(X) P(<=X) P(<X) P(>X) P(>=X)
25 0.000627 0.001189 0.000562 0.998811 0.999438
26 0.001207 0.002396 0.001189 0.997604 0.998811
27 0.002205 0.0046 0.002396 0.9954 0.997604
28 0.003832 0.008433 0.0046 0.991567 0.9954
29 0.006343 0.014775 0.008433 0.985225 0.991567
30 0.010008 0.024783 0.014775 0.975217 0.985225
31 0.015065 0.039848 0.024783 0.960152 0.975217
32 0.021656 0.061504 0.039848 0.938496 0.960152
33 0.02975 0.091254 0.061504 0.908746 0.938496
 34 0.039083 0.130337 0.091254 0.869663 0.908746
35 0.049133 0.179469 0.130337 0.820531 0.869663
36 0.059141 0.238611 0.179469 0.761389 0.820531
37 0.068199 0.30681 0.238611 0.69319 0.761389
38 0.075378 0.382188 0.30681 0.617812 0.69319
39 0.079888 0.462075 0.382188 0.537925 0.617812
40 0.081219 0.543294 0.462075 0.456706 0.537925

l. What is the probability that 30 or fewer surveys will be returned? 0.024783

m. What is the probability that 25 or fewer surveys will be returned? 0.001189
n. What is the probability that more than 40 surveys will be returned? 0.456706
o. What is the probability that at least 30 but no more than 35 surveys will be
returned? 0.1647

Exercise 6.75

Common Data
Mean 2
Standard Deviation 0.05

Probability for a Range

Probability for X <= From X Value 1.9
X Value 1.9 To X Value 2
Z Value -2 Z Value for 1.9 -2
P(X<=1.9) 0.0227501 Z Value for 2 0
P(X<=1.9) 0.0228
Probability for X > P(X<=2) 0.5000
X Value 2.1 P(1.9<=X<=2) 0.4772
Z Value 2
P(X>2.1) 0.0228 Find X and Z Given Cum. Pctage.
Cumulative Percentage 99.00%
Probability for X<1.9 or X >2.1 Z Value 2.326348
P(X<1.9 or X >2.1) 0.0455 X Value 2.116317

Probability for a Range

From X Value 1.9
To X Value 2.1
Z Value for 1.9 -2
Z Value for 2.1 2
P(X<=1.9) 0.0228
P(X<=2.1) 0.9772
P(1.9<=X<=2.1) 0.9545
 Probability for a Range
From X Value 2.05
To X Value 2.1
Z Value for 2.05 1
Z Value for 2.1 2
P(X<=2.05) 0.8413
P(X<=2.1) 0.9772
P(2.05<=X<=2.1) 0.1359

What proportion of the bottles will contain

a. between 1.90 and 2.0 liters? 0.4772
b. between 1.90 and 2.10 liters? 0.9545
c. below 1.90 liters? 0.0227501
d. below 1.90 liters or above 2.10 liters? 0.0455
e. above 2.10 liters ? 0.0228
f. between 2.05 and 2.10 liters? 0.1359
g. 99% of the bottles would be expected to contain at least how much soft drink?
2.116317 liters
h. 99% of the bottles would be expected to contain an amount that is between which
two values (symmetrically distributed)? 1.871 liters and 2.129 liters
Since 99% of the values will be between the lower value of X (XL) and the upper
value of X (XU), and these 2 are of equal distance from the mean, .5% of the values will
be below the lower value of XL Although XL is not known, the corresponding value Z
can be obtained because the area under the normal curve less than this Z is .0050.
From Table E.2, the probability 0.0049 is -2.58 (Z).
Substituting the values with the equation on finding an X value associated with
known probability. X= μ + Z σ
= 2 + (-2.58) (0.05)
= 2 - .129
= 1.871 liters
Although XU is not known, the corresponding value Z can be obtained because the
area under the normal curve less than this Z is .9950. From Table E.2, the probability
0.9949 is 2.58 (Z).
Substituting the values with the equation on finding an X value associated with
known probability. X= μ + Z σ
= 2 + (2.58) (0.05)
= 2 + .129
= 2.129 liters

i. Explain the difference in the results in g and h

j. Suppose that in an effort to reduce the number of bottles that contain less than
1.90 liters, the bottler sets the filling machine so that the mean is 2.02 liters.
Under these circumstances, what would be your answers in a-h?

Common Data
Mean 2.02
Standard
Deviation 0.05
Probability for a Range
Probability for X <= From X Value 1.9
X Value 1.9 To X Value 2
 Z Value -2.4 Z Value for 1.9 -2.4
P(X<=1.9) 0.0081975 Z Value for 2 -0.4
P(X<=1.9) 0.0082
Probability for X > P(X<=2) 0.3446
X Value 2.1 P(1.9<=X<=2) 0.3364
Z Value 1.6
P(X>2.1) 0.0548

Probability for X<1.9 or X >2.1

P(X<1.9 or X >2.1) 0.0630

Probability for a Range

From X Value 1.9
To X Value 2.1
Z Value for 1.9 -2.4
Z Value for 2.1 1.6
P(X<=1.9) 0.0082
P(X<=2.1) 0.9452
P(1.9<=X<=2.1) 0.9370

Probability for a Range

From X Value 2.05
To X Value 2.1
Z Value for 2.05 0.6
Z Value for 2.1 1.6
P(X<=2.05) 0.7257
P(X<=2.1) 0.9452
P(2.05<=X<=2.1) 0.2195

Find X and Z Given Cum. Pctage.

Cumulative Percentage 99.00%
Z Value 2.326348
X Value 2.136317

What proportion of the bottles will contain

a. between 1.90 and 2.0 liters? 0.3364
b. between 1.90 and 2.10 liters? 0.9370
c. below 1.90 liters? 0.0081975
d. below 1.90 liters or above 2.10 liters? 0.0630
e. above 2.10 liters ? 0.0548
f. between 2.05 and 2.10 liters? 0.2195
g. 99% of the bottles would be expected to contain at least how much soft drink?
2.136317 liters
h. 99% of the bottles would be expected to contain an amount that is between which
two values (symmetrically distributed)? 1.891 liters and 2.149 liters

Since 99% of the values will be between the lower value of X (XL) and the upper
value of X (XU), and these 2 are of equal distance from the mean, .5% of the values will
be below the lower value of XL Although XL is not known, the corresponding value Z
 can be obtained because the area under the normal curve less than this Z is .0050.
From Table E.2, the probability 0.0049 is -2.58 (Z).
Substituting the values with the equation on finding an X value associated with
known probability. X= μ + Z σ
= 2.02 + (-2.58) (0.05)
= 2.02 - .129
= 1.891 liters
Although XU is not known, the corresponding value Z can be obtained because the
area under the normal curve less than this Z is .9950. From Table E.2, the probability
0.9949 is 2.58 (Z).
Substituting the values with the equation on finding an X value associated with
known probability. X= μ + Z σ
= 2.02 + (2.58) (0.05)
= 2.02 + .129
= 2.149 liters

Common Data
Mean 2
Standard Deviation 5
Probability for a Range
Probability for X <= From X Value 1.99
X Value 1.98 To X Value 2
Z Value -0.004 Z Value for 1.99 -0.002
P(X<=1.98) 0.4984042 Z Value for 2 0
P(X<=1.99) 0.4992
Probability for X > P(X<=2) 0.5000
X Value 2.02 P(1.99<=X<=2) 0.0008
Z Value 0.004
P(X>2.02) 0.4984 Find X and Z Given Cum. Pctage.
Cumulative Percentage 99.00%
Probability for X<1.98 or X >2.02 Z Value 2.326348
P(X<1.98 or X >2.02) 0.9968 X Value 13.63174

Probability for a Range

From X Value 1.99
To X Value 2.01
Z Value for 1.99 -0.002
Z Value for 2.01 0.002
Probability for X >
P(X<=1.99) 0.4992
X Value 2.01
P(X<=2.01) 0.5008
Z Value 0.002
P(1.99<=X<=2.01) 0.0016
P(X>2.01) 0.4992

Probability for a Range

From X Value 2.01
To X Value 2.03
Z Value for 2.01 0.002
Z Value for 2.03 0.006
P(X<=2.01) 0.5008
P(X<=2.03) 0.5024
P(2.01<=X<=2.03) 0.0016

If the random sample of 25 bottles is selected, what is the probability that the sample
mean will be
k. between 1.99 and 2.0 liters? 0.0008
l. 1.99 and 2.01 liters? 0.0016
m. Below 1.98 liters 0.4984042
n. Below 1.98 liters or above 2.02 liters 0.9968
o. Above 2.01 liters 0.4992
p. Between 2.01 and 2.03 liters 0.0016
q. 99% of the sample means would be expected to contain at least how much soft
drink?
r. 99% of the sample means would be expected to contain an amount that is between
which two values (symmetrically distributed)
The 99% is divided into two equal parts, half below the mean and half above
the mean. The value of Z corresponding to an area of 0.0050 in the lower tail of
the normal curve in Table E.2 is -1.04, and the value of Z corresponding to a
cumulative area of 0.9950 in Table E.2 is +1.04.
XL= 2.00 + (-2.58) (.08)
= 2.00 - .2064
= 1.7936
XU = 2.00 + (2.58) (.08)
= 2.00 +.2064
= 2.2064
Therefore, 99% of all sample means based on samples of 25 bottles will fall
between 1.7936 liters and 2.2064 liters.

s. Explain the difference in the results in q and r.

Exercise 6.76

Common Data
Mean 4.7
Standard Deviation 0.4

Probability for a Range

From X Value 4.7
To X Value 5
Z Value for 4.7 0
Z Value for 5 0.75
P(X<=4.7) 0.5000
P(X<=5) 0.7734
 Find X and Z Given Cum. Pctage.
Cumulative Percentage 77.00%
Z Value 0.738847
P(4.7<=X<=5) 0.2734 X Value 4.995539

Probability for a Range

From X Value 5
To X Value 5.5
Z Value for 5 0.75
Z Value for 5.5 2
P(X<=5) 0.7734
P(X<=5.5) 0.9772
P(5<=X<=5.5) 0.2039

a. What is the probability that a randomly selected orange will contain between 4.70
and 5.00 ounces? 0.2734
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected orange will contain between 5.00
and 5.50 ounces? 0.2039
c. 77% of the oranges will contain at least how many ounces of juice?
4.995539 ounces
Between what two values (in ounces) symmetrically distributed around the population
mean will 80% of the oranges fall? 4.188 ounces and 5.212 ounces

Since 80% of the values will be between the lower value of X (XL) and the upper
value of X (XU), and these 2 are of equal distance from the mean, 10% of the values
will be below the lower value of XL Although XL is not known, the corresponding value
Z can be obtained because the area under the normal curve less than this Z is .1000.
From Table E.2, the probability 0.1000 is -1.28 (Z).
Substituting the values with the equation on finding an X value associated with
known probability. X= μ + Z σ
= 4.7 + (-1.28) (0.4)
= 4.7 - .512
= 4.188
Although XU is not known, the corresponding value Z can be obtained because the
area under the normal curve less than this Z is .9000. From Table E.2, the probability
0.8997 is 1.28 (Z).
Substituting the values with the equation on finding an X value associated with
known probability. X= μ + Z σ
= 4.7 + (1.28) (0.4)
= 4.7 + .512
= 5.212

Suppose that a sample of 25 oranges is selected:

d. What is the probability that the sample mean will be at least 4.60 ounces? 0.8944
 Using the equation on finding Z for the sampling distribution of the mean,
to find the area on 4.60 ounces.
Z= X-μ
σ/√n
= 4.70 – 4.60
.4/√25
= 0.1
0.08
= 1.25 in Table E.2 is .8944
Therefore, 89.44% of all the possible samples of size 25 have a sample
mean of at least 4.60 ounces.

e. Between what two values symmetrically distributed around the population mean
will 70% of the sample means fall? 4.6168 ounces and 4.7832 ounces
The 70% is divided into two equal parts, half below the mean and half
above the mean. The value of Z corresponding to an area of 0.1500 in the lower
tail of the normal curve in Table E.2 is -1.04, and the value of Z corresponding to
a cumulative area of 0.8500 in Table E.2 is +1.04.
XL= 4.70 + (-1.04) (.08)
= 4.70 - .0832
= 4.6168
XU = 4.70 + (1.04) (.08)
= 4.70 +.0832
= 4.7832
Therefore, 70% of all sample means based on samples of 25 oranges will fall
between 4.6168 ounces and 4.7832 ounces.

f. 77% of the sample means will be above what value? 4.6408