Melvin Oh Jia Wei, Lee Si Yuan, Leong Kai Fong

Population Dynamics of Singapore from 1970-2060

Population Dynamics of Singapore from 1970-2060

By

Melvin Oh Jia Wei, Lee Si Yuan and Leong Kai Fong

NUS High School of Mathematics and Science

Teacher Advisors
Chai Ming Huang, Royce
NUS High School of Mathematics and Science

External Mentors
Professor Bao Wei Zhu and Ms Wang Yan
Faculty of Science: Department of Mathematics
National University of Singapore

30 December 2014

Statement of Contribution:
All student authors contributed in part to the project. As the group leader, Melvin Oh coordinated
most of our group meetings, and did most of the experimental work using Matlab and Microsoft
Excel, alongside Leong Kai Fong. Lee Si Yuan wrote and formatted the bulk of the report with the
advice of Leong Kai Fong, except for the procedures section which was written by Melvin Oh.
Professor Bao has proposed the topics of research and provided reading materials, while Ms Wang
provided and guided us with regards to the Matlab software, in addition to answering our queries
during our numerous project meetings.
 Melvin Oh Jia Wei, Lee Si Yuan, Leong Kai Fong
Population Dynamics of Singapore from 1970-2060

Population Dynamics of Singapore from 1970-2060

Melvin Oh Jia Wei, Lee Si Yuan and Leong Kai Fong

Abstract
In this project, we utilized various discrete, Malthusian and logistic population models to predict
future population figures, with the aim of aiding urban planning for the future. We began by finding
population statistics of Singapore from 1970 to 2012, then investigated the discrete series based
on the Malthusian population model. Henceafter, we performed data analysis using conventional
continuous versions of Malthusian and logistic models. We then utilized immigration data from
the year 2000, and added both discrete and continuous Malthusian models with immigration.
Microsoft Excel and Matlab software were utilized extensively for data analysis. We observed that
Malthusian population models provide fairly accurate predictions in the short run, but grow
increasingly unfeasible as the time variable increases. Factoring immigration data into the
Malthusian models help increase its accuracy, but not by much in the long run. Hence, only the
logistic model was utilized for long-term projections. Our continuous Malthusian Model with
Immigration and logistic model predicted population figures of 7.415 million and 7.007 million
respectively by the year 2030. As the logistic model already provides our lowest population
estimate, we conclude that breaching the 6.9 million population figure by the year 2030 is a likely
reality, and urge the government to adopt more stringent immigration policies and invest
infrastructural investments, to minimize negative social impacts of overpopulation. The logistic
model also projected an 8.724 million population figure by the year 2060, conforming with our
initial hypothesis that population should not have breached 10 million by then.

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 Melvin Oh Jia Wei, Lee Si Yuan, Leong Kai Fong
Population Dynamics of Singapore from 1970-2060

Introduction
A population is defined as the number of a certain organism in a given area. Population models
are constructed upon several population data points with respect to time, and have uses ranging
from facilitating conservation measures in the wild, to assisting with urban planning. In this study,
we explore the commonly used discrete, Malthusian and logistic models.
Hypothesis
1. Singapore's population will indeed exceed 6.9 million by the year 2030.
2. Using the Malthusian growth model alone will give us a population projection of over 12
million by the year 2060.
3. However, we believe alternative models like the logistic growth models to be more
applicable due to slowing growth from hard limits in carrying capacity due to land
constraints. Hence population by the year 2060 should not exceed 10 million.

Experimental Procedures
We first convert the nonlinear equation N(t) = N0 ert into the linear equation ln (N) = b + rt, b = ln
(N0) to plot out our projected values for the discrete model. With the differential equation being
dN/dt = rN for the continuous Malthus Model, the solution with the initial condition N(0) = N0 is
N(t) = N0 ert , where t ≥ 0 and N0 ≥ 0. There are 2 unknown parameters in the above equation, N0
and r. Given N(t) and t are known data, we use them to determine the unknown parameters using
both interpolation method and least square approximation method (used for the discrete model
above).
We select any two data points and substitute them into the equation N(t) = N0 ert. For example, we
can substitute two values t1 = 0, N(t1) = N0 and t2 = 1 , N(t2) = N1 that are chosen from the given
data set into N(t) = N0 ert. We then obtain 2 equations, N(t1) = N0 ert1 and N(t2) = N0 ert2. Then we
are able to find N0 from the first equation and then r from the second equation. With r and N0
known, we are able to predict N(t). The logistic model's formulation utilized the interpolation
method as well, except that 3 simultaneous equations need be formed to solve for unknowns K and
r.
Analysis of Results
Conventional Malthusian Model (Discrete)
Based on our obtained data points in Figure A(i), we predict that the population will be 7.835
million in the year 2030 and 15.565 million in the year 2060. Our projected data points appear to
fit fairly well with the actual data with no clear deviation pattern. Hence we can safely conclude
that Singapore’s population by 2030 will exceed the 6.9 million projection in the Population White
Paper, and that conventional Malthusian model estimates will have a population projection
exceeding 12 million by the year 2060.
Malthusian Model With Immigration (Discrete)
For the least square method, based on our obtained data points in Figure B(i), we predict that the
population will be 7.262 million in the year 2030 and 11.249 million in the year 2060. For the

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 Melvin Oh Jia Wei, Lee Si Yuan, Leong Kai Fong
Population Dynamics of Singapore from 1970-2060

method which we utilized data and our new formula to derive the unknown r, based on our obtained
data points in Figure Bii, we predict that the population will be 7.416 million in the year 2030 and
11.701 million in the year 2060. The data points obtained fit well with the actual data from 2000
to 2013 with no clear deviation pattern , meaning that the projections are likely accurate in the
short run at least. Hence we can safely conclude that Singapore’s population by 2030 will exceed
the 6.9 million projection in the Population White Paper.
Conventional Malthusian Model (Continuous)
Based on our extrapolated graph in Figure C(i), we predict that the population will be 7.879 million
in the year 2030 and 15.354 million in the year 2060. The best fit exponential curve fits well with
our data points from 1970 to 2013, meaning that the projection is likely accurate in the short run
at least. Hence we can safely conclude that Singapore’s population by 2030 will exceed the 6.9
million projection in the Population White Paper, and that conventional Malthusian model
estimates will have a population projection exceeding 12 million by the year 2060.
Malthusian Model With Immigration (Continuous)
Based on our extrapolated graph in Figure D(i), we predict that the population will be 7.415 million
in the year 2030 and 11.691 million in the year 2060. The best fit exponential curve fits well with
the data from 1990 to 2013, meaning the projection is likely accurate in the short run at least.
Hence we can safely conclude that population figures will likely exceed the 6.9 million projection
in the Population White Paper by the year 2030, and exceed 12 million by 2060, like we
hypothesized of Malthusian projections.
Logistic Model (Continuous)
Solving for K and r, K = 9.5734 and r = 0.044157
From our extrapolated curve in Figure E(i), we predict that the population will be 7.007 million in
the year 2030 and 8.724 million in the year 2060. In contrast to the prediction offered by logistic
model in Figure F(ii), the expected 6.9 million population by the year 2030 will be reached, just
like in the Malthusian model. The year 2060 prediction also conforms with our initial hypothesis,
that using the logistic growth model, population projection by then will not exceed 10 million.
Conclusion and Future Directions
We decided to adopt the continuous logistic model for future predictions, in view of the long-term
inaccuracies of Malthusian models in the long term. Following this, the population will be 7.007
million in the year 2030 and 8.724 million in the year 2060. Our data collected from various model
corresponds well with our initial hypotheses, with the exception of the continuous Malthusian
model with immigration, likely due to inappropriate data points chosen.
We recommend population remodelling to be done every 5 years with updated population data, to
make for more accurate population projections further in the future. Possible investigations into
Harvest Model and Logistic Models with time-varying K can also be conducted. More information
of these can be found in the Appendix.