Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Solution:
We define the random variable
𝑋 = dollars gained on the game
and the event
𝐴𝑖 = dice 𝑖 shows 6 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3
with probability
1
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) = 6
1 5 2 75
𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = 3 (6) (6) = 216
5 1 2 15
𝑃(𝑥 = 2) = 3 (6) (6) = 216
1 3 1
𝑃(𝑥 = 3) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ) = (6) = 216
National University of Engineering
Faculty of Civil Engineering
Academic Department of Basic Sciences
x -1 1 2 3
125 75 15 1
P(X = x)
216 216 216 216
2. The number of male mates of a queen bee was found to have a Poisson
distribution with parameter λ = 2.7.
Solution:
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑥
a) Using Poisson’s formula: 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = , we generate the table.
𝑥!
x P(x)
0 0.0672
1 0.1815
2 0.2450
3 0.2205
4 0.1488
5 0.0804
6 0.0362
7 0.0139
8 0.0047
9 0.0014
10 0.0004
11 0.0001
12 0.0000
National University of Engineering
Faculty of Civil Engineering
Academic Department of Basic Sciences
Poisson distribution
0.3000
0.2500
0.2000
P(X=x)
0.1500
0.1000
0.0500
0.0000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
x
3. A survey found that the traffic flowing through an intersection with an average
of 3 cars per 30 seconds. Assume the traffic flow can be modeled as a Poisson
distribution.
a) Find the minimum number of cars through the intersection so that the
probability of this number or fewer cars in 30 seconds is at least 90%.
b) If the variance of the number of cars through the intersection per minute is
20, is the Poisson distribution appropriate?
Solution:
a) For t = 30s we find λ = 3.
We are asked for a number of cars 𝑥0 , which can be obtained from the
expression:
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥0 ) ≥ 0.9
Using a Poisson table, we find the first cumulative probability that surpasses
0.9 given λ = 3. This is first achieved on 0.9161, and so we get 𝑥0 = 5.
National University of Engineering
Faculty of Civil Engineering
Academic Department of Basic Sciences
𝑉(𝑋) = 6
In the condition, we find 𝑉(𝑋) = 20, which is not even near to the Poisson
value. Therefore, a Poisson distribution cannot be assumed.
Solution:
We remember a binomial experiment must satisfy four conditions:
The number of trials is fixed.
Trials must have only two outcomes: success or failure.
Each trial is independent from all others.
Success probability is the same for all trials.
a) is a binomial experiment.
c) is a binomial experiment.
Solution:
We develop left’s expression.
𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎 + 𝑡 ∧ 𝑋 > 𝑎] 𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎 + 𝑡]
𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎 + 𝑡/𝑋 > 𝑎] = =
𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎] 𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎]
Then
𝑒 −𝜆(𝑎+𝑡)
𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎 + 𝑡/𝑋 > 𝑎] =
𝑒 −𝜆𝑎
6. If 𝑄~𝑈(0,3), find the probability that the roots of the equation 𝑔(𝑡) = 0 are
real. Where 𝑔(𝑡) = 4𝑡 2 + 4𝑄𝑡 + 𝑄 + 2
Solution:
We first get the probability density function of the random variable 𝑄
1
; 0≤𝑥≤3
𝑓(𝑥) = {3
0; 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
since it is a uniform distribution.
Now, we must find the values that make the equation roots real.
National University of Engineering
Faculty of Civil Engineering
Academic Department of Basic Sciences
∆𝑔(𝑡) ≥ 0
(4𝑄)2 − 4(4)(𝑄 + 2) ≥ 0
𝑄2 − 𝑄 − 2 ≥ 0
(𝑄 − 2)(𝑄 + 1) ≥ 0
Namely:
−1 ∞ −1 3 ∞
1
𝑃(𝐴) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = ∫ 0 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 0 𝑑𝑥
−∞ 2 −∞ 2 3 3
3
1 𝑥3
𝑃(𝐴) = ∫ 𝑑𝑥 = [ ]
2 3 32
2 1
𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − =
3 3
1
Answer: 3 is the probability for roots being real.