lOMoARcPSD|2457719

Short Answer for ETA & Preparation for Final Exam

Design and Innovation Fundamentals (University of Technology, Sydney)

Distributing prohibited | Downloaded by eth moses (ethmoses@gmail.com)

 lOMoARcPSD|2457719

QUESTION 3 (15 Marks)

a) The event tree shown below analyses a failsafe mechanism consisting of three (3)
components. In the event of a fault Component A should operate and correct the system.
If Component A fails to operate, Component B acting as a backup should then operate and
correct the system. If both Component A and Component B fail to respond to the system
fault a third back up Component C should operate to correct the system. The cost of each
component, and the probability of each component failing to operate in response to a fault
is:
Component A: cost = $100; probability of failure = 0.5
Component B: cost = $150; probability of failure = 0.2
Component C: cost = $200; probability of failure = 0.1
(i) As shown in the diagram below, what is the probability that the failsafe system
will succeed in responding to a fault?
(ii) Given that a fault occurs what is the probability that Component C will be required
to operate?
(iii) Using any combination or multiples of the available components what would be
the cheapest system that has a probability of failure that is less than 0.005?
(10 marks)

Component A Component B Component C

Failure System
Failure
Failure
Success System
Failure Success

Success System
Initiating Success
Event

Success System
Success

V1.3 Page 1
Distributing prohibited | Downloaded by eth moses (ethmoses@gmail.com)
 lOMoARcPSD|2457719

Solution:

a) Failsafe system success is 1- Probability of System Failure:

1- PFA*PFB*PFC = 1-(0.5*0.2*0.1) = 0.99

b) Component C will only operate if both Component A and Component B fail

to operate:
PFA*PFB = 0.5*0.2 = 0.1 or One in 10 incidents

c) Choose components to achieve a 0.005 probability of failure at least cost.

Use combinations and calculate probabilities and costs to discover the best
fit. It is possible to have multiples of any one component:

Component
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Probability Cost
A A A A A A A A 0.004 $800
B B B B 0.0016 $600
C C C 0.001 $600
B B C 0.004 $500
B C C 0.002 $550

Correct answer is B B C for the lowest cost of $500

V1.3 Page 2
Distributing prohibited | Downloaded by eth moses (ethmoses@gmail.com)