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LA AGENDA 21 Y EL IPCC
RESUMEN: ASPECTO AMBIENTAL
La Agenda 21 fue suscrita por 172 países miembro de Naciones Unidas. Estos
países se comprometen a aplicar políticas ambientales, económicas y sociales en
el ámbito local encaminadas a lograr un desarrollo sostenible. Cada región o cada
localidad, por su parte, desarrolla su propia Agenda Local 21, en la que deberían
participar tanto ciudadanos, como empresas y organizaciones sociales, con el
objetivo de generar y consensuar un programa de políticas sostenibles.
Se podría definir la Agenda 21 como una estrategia global que se lleva a la práctica
de manera local y que implica a todos los sectores de una comunidad: sociales,
culturales, económicos y ambientales. En principio, la Agenda 21 debe contemplar
tres aspectos: la sostenibilidad medioambiental, la justicia social y el equilibrio
económico. Todas ellas dependen de la participación ciudadana. No es posible la
Agenda 21 sin la participación de la ciudadanía, aunque alentada de manera
efectiva por los poderes públicos y las diferentes asociaciones públicas o privadas.
Impactos
Agricultura y silvicultura
Los asentamientos humanos más vulnerables son aquellos que están más
expuestos a riesgos naturales, por ejemplo las inundaciones litorales o fluviales,
sequías extremas, corrimientos de tierra, vendavales y ciclones tropicales. Las
poblaciones más vulnerables serán las de los países en desarrollo, y en ellas los
grupos sociales de ingresos más bajos; los residentes en tierras bajas costeras o
islas y en tierras semiáridas de pastoreo, así como los habitantes pobres de casas
desocupadas, chabolas y barrios miserables, especialmente en las megalopolis,
serán las más vulnerables. Una menor disponibilidad de agua y alimentos, un
aumento de los trastornos como consecuencia del calor y de la propagación de
infecciones podría acarrear consecuencias graves para la salud, especialmente en
las grandes zonas urbanas.
La elevación mundial de las temperaturas acelerará la elevación del nivel del mar y
modificará la circulación oceánica y los ecosistemas marinos, produciendo así unas
consecuencias socioeconómicas considerables. Estos efectos vendrán a añadirse
a la actual tendencia ascendente del nivel del mar y a otras agresiones que ya han
castigado bastante a los recursos costeros, como la polución y la captura abusiva.
Una elevación del nivel del mar de entre 30 y 50 cm (inferida para el año 2050)
pondrá en peligro las islas bajas y zonas costeras. En los océanos, se verán
alterados el equilibrio térmico y las pautas de circulación oceánica, es decir, la
capacidad del océano para absorber calor y CO2. Así como las corrientes
ascendentes, que afectarán a las pesquerías.
Opciones
Los estudios realizados por los Grupos de Trabajo I y III sobre los diferentes
escenarios climáticos desarrollan, en líneas generales, políticas de control de
emisiones que retardarían el recalentamiento global de forma que del valor previsto
actualmente de 0,3°C cada diez años se pasaría a 0,1°C durante el mismo tiempo
(ver el apéndice).
Diary 21
Agenda 21 was endorsed by 172 member countries of the United Nations. These
countries are committed to implementing environmental, economic and social
policies at the local level aimed at achieving sustainable development. Each region
or locality, for its part, develops its own Local Agenda 21, in which citizens,
companies and social organizations should participate, with the objective of
generating and agreeing on a sustainable policy program.
Management of Ecosystems
Agricultural expansion, to meet growing food demand, has had a major adverse
impact on forests, grasslands and wetlands. Land degradation affects at least two
billion hectares worldwide and about two-thirds of the world's agricultural land.
Drinking water is becoming increasingly scarce in many countries because of
agricultural activities that consume 70% of the world's drinking water. However, only
30% of the water supply is actually used by plants and crops - the remaining amount
is wasted. In the next two decades, it is expected that 17% more water will be
required to grow food in developing countries and that the total water used will
increase by 40%.
More than 11,000 species are considered threatened and over 800 species have
become extinct due to loss of habitat. Another 5,000 species are potentially
threatened, unless efforts are made to reverse the declining trend of their population.
Nearly a quarter of the world's fish catches are affected by indiscriminate fishing
and half have been totally depleted. Marine fisheries in the Atlantic Ocean and parts
of the Pacific Ocean reached their full potential years ago.
Natural forests are rapidly developing, on farmland and other types of exploitation.
The global deforestation rate during the 1990s is estimated at 14.6 billion hectares
per year, representing a net loss of 4% of the world's forests over the last decade.
About 50% of the world's wood production is used as fuel fuel and 90% of it is
consumed in developing countries. Total timber biomass in the world's forests is also
declining, reducing their capacity to mitigate climate change.
About 27% of the world's coral reefs have been lost due to direct human
intervention, their impact, and the effects of climate change. It is estimated that
another 32% of the reefs could be practically devastated in the next thirty years.
Emissions of substances that destroy the ozone layer have reached their highest
level and now begin to decline gradually. Total consumption of chlorofluorocarbons
has declined from about 1.1 billion tonnes in 1986 to 156,000 tonnes in 1998.
World consumption of fossil fuels has increased by 10% between 1992 and 1999.
The highest per capita use continues to be in developed countries, where the
population consumed 6.4 tons of oil equivalent in 1999. That is, consumption 10
Greater than that of developing regions.
Increased energy use in the transportation sector, of which 95% of the energy
consumed is derived from oil. Consumption in this sector is expected to increase at
a rate of 1.5 per cent a year in developed countries and 3.6 per cent in developing
countries.
Over two billion people in developing countries are totally dependent on traditional
energy biomass, such as firewood, animal manure and agricultural waste.
Improve the management of drinking water supply and achieve a more equitable
distribution of water resources.
IPCC
Impacts
The report of Working Group II on impacts is based on the work of several subgroups
that have used various studies based on different methodologies.
Judging from the results of numerous studies, there are already indications that
climate change will have an important effect on agriculture and livestock. On the
other hand, it has not yet been conclusively determined whether global agricultural
potential will increase or decrease on average. Negative effects could be observed
at the regional level.
Human settlements; Energy, transport and industry; Human health and air
quality
The most vulnerable human settlements are those most exposed to natural hazards,
such as coastal or river floods, extreme droughts, landslides, windstorms and
tropical cyclones. The most vulnerable populations will be those in developing
countries, with the lowest income groups; Residents in coastal lowlands or islands
and semi-arid grazing lands, as well as the poor inhabitants of unoccupied houses,
shanty towns and slums, especially in the megalopolis, will be the most vulnerable.
Reduced availability of water and food, increased disruption as a result of heat and
the spread of infections could have serious consequences for health, especially in
large urban areas.
Options
The studies carried out by Working Groups I and III on different climate scenarios
generally outline emission control policies that would retard global warming so that
the currently expected value of 0,3 ° C every ten years would be spent At 0.1 ° C
during the same time (see appendix).
The potentially serious consequences of climate change are sufficient grounds for
initiating response strategies, the justification of which may be immediate, even
when significant uncertainties have to be faced. Response strategies would consist
of the following: - phasing out of chlorofluorocarbon emissions and thorough
assessment of the potential for greenhouse effect of the proposed substitutes; -
improvements and conservation of energy efficiency in the supply, transformation
and end-use of energy, in particular by contributing to the diffusion of technologies
to improve energy efficiency. Which will affect fisheries.
Bibliografía