Seismicity of the Project Area

Seismic analysis of the areais carried out for the project on the basis of existing information
from the seismicity map, earthquakes generating faults produced by the effects of
earthquakes, and major historical earthquakes, and then design parameters are recommended.

Tectonic Setting of the Project Area

The easternNepal depicts the continuity of the three major tectonic zones of the Himalayas as
in other parts of the country. Existence of tectonic features such as the Main Central Thrust
(MCT), the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) is
important in proximity to such structural features while assessing the seismicity of the
multipurpose project. The Main Central Thrust, the Main Boundary Thrust and the
Himalayan Frontal Fault are found active in parts of thetotal segment. For the current project
area, the MBT and the MT (Mahabharat Thrust) have been incorporated.The risks from the
other prominent thrusts of the Himalaya are not required to consider as they far away from
the project area.The epicenter of the Gorkha earthquake2015 lies about 55 km NW of the
present project area (Figure 1).The earthquake nucleated at a depth of about 15 m at the
transition zone between locked and a seismically creeping part of the Main Himalayan
Thrust. The Gorkha Earthquake (Mw 7.8) and its strong aftershock (M w 7.3) both occurred on
the gently dipping part of the Main Himalayan Thrust. They occurred close to the Main
Central Thrust (MCT) but did not occur on the MCT itself.

Historical Seismic Activity in Nepal

Nepal has been experiencing several large earthquakes since the first historical recorded one
thatdates back to the year 1255 A.D. The earthquake of the year 1255 A.D., which occurred
near the Kathmandu Valley with maximum Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) of X. Its
degree of damage suggests that the magnitude could have been approximately M w 7.7.
Earthquakes of magnitude Mw 7.0 had also occurred around the Kathmandu during 1408
A.D., 1680 A.D., 1833 A.D. and 1869 A.D respectively (Figure 2). The great earthquakes,
which had occurred close to the Dudhkoshi-4 Hydropower Project site are the Bihar – Nepal
earthquake of 1934 and Udaipur earthquake of 1988 whose magnitudes are assigned asM w
8.3 and Mw 6.6 respectively.
Figure 1. Destructive Earthquakes (Mw > 6) in the region. The blue stars stand for the 2015 Gorkha
Earthquake (Mw 7.8) and its strong aftershock (Mw 7.3). The yellow star is the project location

Figure2: (a)Mapshowing the project area, largeand major earthquakesalongtheHimalayanarc.

(b) Generalized cross-section of the central Himalaya showing Main Central Thrust (MCT),
MainBoundary Thrust (MBT) and Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT)

Past Seismicity Studies in Nepal

Seismicity studies for the hydroelectric projects in Nepal are based on earthquake generating
seismo-tectonic features of the project area and data on historical earthquakes of the region.
In the present context, information on the major historical earthquake is the most valuable
basis for judging the seismic coefficient values for the design purpose. The seismicity map
and seismic hazard map of Nepal published by the Department of Mines and Geology are
equally valuable for acquainting with the general seismicity characteristics of the country.

Two hydropower projects had installed recording system for the seismicity study as well as
for acquiring the corresponding data. The first project, which installed four micro-seismic
recorders is the proposed 10,800 MW Karnali(Chisapani) Multipurpose Project in the Karnali
basin. This has been replaced today by the short period micro-seismic telemetric recorder
under the National Seismological Network of the Department of Mines and Geology in 1978.
Currently, those four stations are also operating in the network of other 17 short period
telemetric seismic stations. Another project is the Pancheswor High Dam Storage
Multipurpose Project with the capacity of 6,480 MW; it deployed the four portable micro-
seismic stations operating MEQ-800.

The design seismic coefficients recommended based on deterministic and probabilistic

approaches fromdifferent hydroelectric projects in Nepal are given in the following Table 1.

Table 1. Recommended Seismic Coefficient for Some Hydropower Projects in Nepal

Recommended Seismic
Project Name Study Conducted By
Coefficient
0.12 g for all
Arun III JICA
components of design
0.12 g for dam
MKE, Lahmeyer, TEPSCO and
Upper Arun 0.062 for underground
NEPECON
powerhouse
Mulghat (Tamor) Electrowatt 0.2 g
MDE = 0.25 g – 0.24 g
Tamor – Mewa 4/5 MHSP, CIWEC
OBE = 0.16 g – 0.15g
 MDE = 0.37 g
DudhKoshi– 1 MHSP, CIWEC
OBE = 0.22 g – 0.23 g
Kaligandaki Morrison-Krudsen OBE = 0.3 g
Note: OBE is Operation Basis Earthquake and MDE is Maximum Design Earthquake

Seismicity Evaluation

The records of seismic activities are limited in the Nepal Himalayas and hence correlation of
seismic events with adjacent Himalayan region are useful sources of information for
designing the hydraulic structures. Several seismic studies have been carried out for various
projects in the country during the engineering design phases and seismic design coefficients
are derived for the respective projects. There is no well-established theory about the
relationship in defining between the maximum acceleration of the earthquake motion of the
ground and the value of the design seismic coefficient. However, there are several methods to
convert the maximum acceleration of the earthquake motion into the design seismic
coefficient. Generally, three methods i.e. simplest method, empirical method and dynamic
analysis using dynamic model are common to establish the seismic coefficient.

For the current study, the new network installed in Nepal provides the seismicity data of the
entire country, which can monitor earthquake events with magnitudes (M) as low as two
occurring in Nepal and in the surrounding region. Among them, the nearest installed station
of the project sites are at Udayapur Jiri and the remaining stations are located at Odare
(Dhankuta) and Taplejung.

In general, the following is the simplest equation that can be applied to convert the
earthquake acceleration to the horizontal seismic coefficient:

a = Amax/980,

Where a = Design Seismic Coefficient, and

Amax = Maximum acceleration of the motion (gal).

However, this method will evaluate rather large value of seismic coefficient compared with
the real value. The empirical method is denoted by a eff = R a = R Amax/980 where 'a' is
effective design coefficient and 'R' is Reduction Factor (empirical value of R is approximated
as 0.5 – 0.65). The results obtained from this method are found to be similar in the recent
studies carried out by using the dynamic analysis and the static analysis. Therefore, this
method is considered to be the most common method to establish the design seismic
coefficient at present. The third method is Dynamic Analysis Method using Dynamic model
andis considered to be most reasonable method at recent condition.

However, to apply this method the parameters like design input motion, the soil structure
model, the properties of rock materials etc. are required to know. Therefore a detailed study is
required to use this method. In this regard, empirical method is considered to be reliable
method for the theoretical evaluation of seismic coefficient for the Sunkoshi Marine
Diversion Project based on application of the seismic coefficients of Nepalese and Indian
standards. According to the seismic design code for Nepal, the project area representing the
second seismic risk zone in Fig.2and the soil foundation at the dam site belonging to average
soil type with the basic horizontal seismic coefficient to be 0.06, the calculated effective
design coefficient (aeff = R * a = R * A max /980) will be approximately lies in the range
between 0.10 to 0.13.

Where, aeff = effective design seismic coefficient,

According to Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal (Figure 3) published by DMG, National

seismological Center, September 2002, R = Reduction factor (empirical value of R = 0.5-
0.65) and maximum acceleration Amax=200 gal

Figure 3. Seismic zonation map of Nepal

Figure 4. Seismic hazard map of Nepal

The Sunkoshi Marin Diversion Project lies in the category having moderate potential risk
zone. Since it is a simple run-off type project even without poundage facility, a value of 0.2 g
-0.25 g as the maximum design earthquake coefficient for the design of the structure can be
recommended.