Game of Dice

Here's how the dice game rolls:

• The player throws three dice that have 6 sides 3 times.

• If the total of the 3 throws is 7 or 11, the player wins.

• If the total of the 3 throws is: 3, 4, 5, 16, 17 or 18, the player loses.

• If the total is any other outcome, the player plays again and re-rolls the die.

• When the player throws the die again, the game continues in the same way, except that the player
wins when the total is equal to the sum determined in the first round.

It is also recommended to use a data table to generate the results. Moreover, 5,000 results are needed
to prepare the Monte Carlo simulation.

Step 1: Dice Rolling Events

First, we develop a range of data with the results of each of the 3 dice for 50 rolls. To do this, it is
proposed to use the "RANDBETWEEN (1.6)" function. Thus, each time we click F9, we generate a new set
of roll results. The "Outcome" cell is the sum total of the results from the 3 rolls.

Step 2: Range of Outcomes

Then, we need to develop a range of data to identify the possible outcomes for the first round and
subsequent rounds. There is provided below a 3-column data range. In the first column, we have the
numbers 1 to 18. These figures represent the possible outcomes following rolling the dice 3 times: the
maximum being 3*6=18. You will note that for cells 1 and 2, the findings are N/A since it is impossible to
get a 1 or a 2 using 3 dice. The minimum is 3.

In the second column, the possible conclusions after the first round is included. As stated in the initial
statement, either the player wins (Win) or loses (Lose) or he replays (Re-roll), depending on the result
(the total of 3 dice rolls).

In the third column, the possible conclusions to subsequent rounds are registered. We can achieve these
results using a function “If.” This ensures that if the result obtained is equivalent to the result obtained in
the first round, we win, otherwise we follow the initial rules of the original play to determine whether
we re-roll the dice.

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Step 3: Conclusions

In this step, we identify the outcome of the 50 dice rolls. The first conclusion can be obtained with an
index function. This function searches the possible results of the first round, the conclusion
corresponding to the result obtained. For example, when obtaining 6, as is the case in the picture below,
we play again.

One can get the findings of other dice rolls, using an "Or" function and an index function nested in an "If"
function. This function tells Excel, "If the previous result is Win or Lose," stop rolling the dice because
once we have won or lost we are done. Otherwise, we go to the column of the following possible
conclusions and we identify the conclusion of the result.

..

Step 4: Number of Dice Rolls

Now, we determine the number of dice rolls required before losing or winning. To do this, we can use a
"Countif" function, which requires Excel to count the results of "Re-roll" and add the number 1 to it. It
adds one because we have one extra round, and we get a final result (win or lose).
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Step 5: Simulation

We develop a range to track the results of different simulations. To do this, we will create three columns.
In the first column, one of the figures included is 5,000. In the second column we will look for the result
after 50 dice rolls. In the third column, the title of the column, we will look for the number of dice rolls
before obtaining the final status (win or lose).

Then, we will create a sensitivity analysis table by using the feature data or Table Data table (this
sensitivity will be inserted in the second table and third columns). In this sensitivity analysis, the
numbers of events of 1 – 5,000 must be inserted into cell A1 of the file. In fact, one could choose any
empty cell. The idea is simply to force a recalculation each time and thus get new dice rolls (results of
new simulations) without damaging the formulas in place.

Step 6: Probability

We can finally calculate the probabilities of winning and losing. We do this using the "Countif" function.
The formula counts the number of "win" and "lose" then divides by the total number of events, 5,000, to
obtain the respective proportion of one and the other. We finally see below that the probability of
getting a Win outcome is 73.2% and getting a Lose outcome is therefore 26.8%.
Read more: Create a Monte Carlo Simulation Using Excel | Investopedia
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