To: Brad Elkins, Campaign Manager

From: GBA Strategies

Date: August 7, 2018

Heinrich Leads U.S. Senate Race In New Mexico

A new survey of New Mexico voters finds that Senator Martin 50

Heinrich is in a good position for November and leads both 47
40
potential challengers in the race for U.S. Senate.
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The follow findings are from survey of 800 likely 2018 voters 29
in New Mexico taken August 1-5, 2018. Interviews were 20
22
conducted on both landlines and cell phones, and the results 10
are subject to a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points at
the 95 percent confidence interval. 0
Martin Mick Gary
Heinrich Rich Johnson
Key Findings

• Heinrich’s standing continues to be good, and a majority of voters approve of the job he
is doing as U.S. Senator. Among all likely voters, Heinrich job approval stands at 53 – 33
percent approve-disapprove, while Independents approve of the job he is doing by a similar
margin of 53 – 36 percent.

• Heinrich leads a potential 3-way race with Republican Mick Rich in 2nd place, followed
by Libertarian Gary Johnson in 3rd, should Johnson decide to run on the Libertarian
Party line. In a 3-way matchup, Heinrich receives 47 percent of the vote, while Rich comes
in second with 29 percent of the vote despite not having much name recognition at this point
(34 percent ID). Johnson, meanwhile, is known by 85 percent of voters but comes in third
with 22 percent of the vote.

• Gary Johnson is unpopular and has no clear base of support. Only 25 percent of voters
give Johnson a favorable rating, while 38 percent rate him unfavorably. Views on Johnson
lean negative across the political spectrum. Self-identified Democrats are the most
unfavorable toward him, giving him an 18 – 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating, but he
also gets net-negative ratings among Republicans (28 – 38 percent) and Independents (23 –
30 percent).

• In a potential 2-way race against just Johnson, Heinrich leads by a double-digit margin.
In a contest with only Heinrich and Johnson as the candidates, Heinrich leads Johnson by 12
points, 50 – 38 percent. Heinrich gets support from 81 percent of Democrats, while only 61
percent of Republicans say they would back Johnson. Heinrich leads Johnson with
Independents 51 – 33 percent.

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