Lecture No.

Population Projections

1. General
• Population forecasts depend on the amount and type of data available
• Population forecasts also depend on the resources available i.e. the amount of money
that you are willing to spend.
• Forecasts are susceptible to error if for no other reason that nobody knows the future.

2. Methods
• Graphical
• Decreasing rate of growth
• Mathematical or Logistical
• Ratio and Correlation
• Component
• Employment forecasts

3. Graphical

A. General
• First step in any projection exercise should be to graph the data.

Population vs Tim e
45,000
40,000
35,000 Interpolated
values lie
30,000
Population

between
25,000 known points
20,000
Extrapolated
15,000
values lie
10,000 beyond know
5,000 points

0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Years

• Graphical projections of past population growths are used to estimate future

 Lecture No. 1 Population Projections, Page No. 2

population growth.

B. Methods
• Arithmetic or linear
• Geometric progression
• Least-square regression line
• Comparison method using past growth curves of similar but larger city

C. Formulas
Arithmetic or Zero Order

= Ka
P = P1 + Ka (t - t1)
Ka =

P = population
t = time
Ka = arithmetic growth constant

Geometric or First Order

= KgP
lnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)
Kg = =

P = population
t = time
Kg = geometric growth constant

Note: lim (1+K)1/K = e = 2.718… base of the natural logarithms

K→0

4. Decreasing Rate of Growth

A. General
• As a rule, the larger a city becomes, the smaller will be the rate of growth from year
to year
• The Saturation population must be estimated.
Note: the saturation population is the maximum number of people can inhabit a town
based on the physical constraints of buildable land zoning.
 Lecture No. 1 Population Projections, Page No. 3

B. Formula

= Kd(S-P)

Kd =
P= P1 + (S-P1)(1-e-Kd (t - t1) )

P = population
t = time
Kd = decreasing rate of increase growth constant
S = Saturation population

5. Mathematical Methods

A. General
• This method assumes that the population growth follows some logical mathematical
relationship in which population growth is a function of time.
• A common function is the S curve or Logistic curve; other mathematical shapes
might include exponential functions, polynomials, what ever works.

B. Procedure
• Estimate the saturation population (most difficult part)
• Plot the population vs. time showing past data as well as the saturation value
• Fit the curve through the past data and saturation value

C. S or Logistic Curve

P2 =

S=

m=

b = ln
n = interval between P0P1P2 which in this case is 10 years.

6. Ratio and Correlation Method

General
• Assumes that the population growth rate of any given community can be related to a
larger region, i.e. county, state.
• Use of the appropriate scale factor allows correlation
 Lecture No. 1 Population Projections, Page No. 4

Formulas

= = KR

P2 = Projected population
P2R = Projected population in the larger region
P1 = Population at last census for the projected region
P1R = Population at last census for the projected region in the larger region
KR = ratio or correlation constant

7. Component Method
Based on the detailed analysis of the components that make up population growth:
• Natural increase, births over deaths
• Migration whose accurate determination is extremely complex

8. Employment Forecast Methods

The projected population is based on various employment forecasts using ratio and
correlation.

9. Population Densities

A. Zoning Categories ( Typical, vary by community)

Zoning Category Density (persons/acre)

Residential - single 5-35
Residential - multiple 30-100
Apartments 100-1000
Commercial 15-30
Industrial 5-15
Open 0

B. Procedure
• "Fly", survey the town to gather topographical, physical data.
• Consult the community planning entity and determine the zoning plan.
• Combine the zoning and physical data.
• Measure the number of acres in each zoning category. Multiply the acreage by the
density. Total the results which is the current population if existing acreage is used or
the saturation population if all the land is considered.
 Lecture No. 1 Population Projections, Page No. 5

10. Examples

Population vs. Time

150000

Population
100000
50000
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Time (years)

Arithmetic General

Given: Arithmetic General Case

= Ka

P = population
t = time
Ka = arithmetic growth constant

Find: Integrated population formula

= Ka ,cross multiply
dP = Ka dt, integrate

= Ka

P2-P1 = Ka (t2-t1), solving for Ka

Ka = , substituting
P2 = P1 + Ka (t2 - t1)
For any P and corresponding t:

P = P1 + Ka (t - t1)

B. Arithmetic Numerical Case

Given: Arithmetic Numerical Case
t1 = 1990, P1=110,500
t2 = 2000, P2=118,200
Find:
A.) Ka
B.) General equation
C.) Population in 2020
 Lecture No. 1 Population Projections, Page No. 6

A.) Ka
Ka = = =
Ka = 770

B.) General equation

P = P1 + Ka (t - t1)
P = 110,500 + 770 (t - t1990), based on 1990
Any population and the corresponding year may be used:
P = 118,200 + 770 (t - t2000), based on 2000

C.) Population in 2020

P2020 =P1990 + Ka (t2020 - t1990)
P2020 = 110,500 + 770 (2020-1990), based on 1990
P2020 = 110,500 + 23,100
P2020 = 133,600

C. Geometric General
Given: Geometric General Case
= KgP
P = population
t = time
Kg = arithmetic growth constant

Find: Integrated population formula

= Kg P, cross multiply
= Kg dt, integrate

= Kg

lnP2-lnP1 = Ka (t2-t1), solving for Ka

Kg = , substituting

LnP2 = lnP1 + Kg (t2 - t1)

At any P and corresponding t

LnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)

D. Geometric Numerical Case

Given: Geometric Numerical Case
t1 = 1990, P1=110,500
t2 = 2000, P2=118,200
 Lecture No. 1 Population Projections, Page No. 7

Find:
A.) Kg
B.) General equation
C.) Population in 2020

A.) Kg

Kg = = = =
Kg = .00700

B.) General equation

LnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)
LnP = Ln (110,500) + .00700(t-1990)
LnP = 11.61 + .00700(t-1990)
P = e(11.61+.00700(t-1990)
Any population and the corresponding year may be used:

C.) Population in 2020

lnP2020 =lnP1990 + Ka (t2020 - t1990)
LnP = 11.61 + .00700(2020-1990) = 11.61 + .21
LnP = 11.82
P2020 = e 11.82
P2020 = 135,944

E. Decreasing Rate of Increase, General

Given: Decreasing Rate General Case
= Kd(S-P)
P = population, t = time, Kd = decreasing rate growth constant,
S = Saturation population
Find: Integrated population formula
= Kd (S-P), cross multiply
= Kd dt, integrate
= Kd
-ln = Kd (t2-t1), solving for Kd
Kd =
Taking the antilog:
= e-(Kd(t2-t1))
S-P2 = (S-P1) e-(Kd(t2-t1))
S-P2 = Se-(Kd(t2-t1)) - P1e-(Kd(t2-t1))
P2 = S - Se-(Kd(t2-t1)) + P1e-(Kd(t2-t1))
Add and subtract P1-P1=0 to the right side; the object is to create factors:
P2 = P1-P1 + S- Se-(Kd(t2-t1)) + P1 e-(Kd(t2-t1))
Rearrange terms:
P2 = P1+ S – P1- Se-(Kd(t2-t1)) + P1 e-(Kd(t2-t1))
P2= P1 + (S-P1)(1- e -Kd(t2-t1))
 Lecture No. 1 Population Projections, Page No. 8

At any P and corresponding t

P = P1 + (S-P1)(1- e -Kd(t-t1))

F. Decreasing Rate of Increase, Numerical Case

Given: Decreasing Rate Numerical Case
t1 = 1990, P1=110,500
t2 = 2000, P2=118,200
S=250,000 assumed
Find:
A.) Kd
B.) General equation
A.) Kd

Kd = =
Kd = = =
Kd = .00568

B.) General equation

P = P1 + (S-P1)(1- e -Kd(t-t1))
P = 110,500 + (250,000-110,500)(1- e -.00568(t-1990))
P = 110,500 + 139,500(1- e -.00568(t-1990))

C.) Population in 2020

P2020 = 110,500 + (250,000-110,500)(1- e -.00568(t-1990))
P2020 = 110,500 + 139,500(1- e -.00568(t-1990))
P2020 = 110,500 + 139,500(1- e -.00568(2020-1990))
P2020 = 110,500 + 139,500(1-.843)
P2020 = 110,500 + 21,856
P2020 = 132,356

G. Logistic Method
Given: Logistic Method
t0 = 1980, P0 = 83,500
t1 = 1990, P1=110,500
t2 = 2000, P2=118,200
Find: Population in 2020
P2020 =

S=

S=

S=
 Lecture No. 1 Population Projections, Page No. 9

S=
S=
S=120,000

m= =

m = .437

b = ln
n = interval between P0P1P2 which in this case is 10 years.

b = ln

b = ln
b = (-1.63)
b = -0.163

t = 2020-1980
t= 40
P2020 =
P2020 =
P2020 =
P2020 =
P2020 = 119,923

Compare results:

Method Population 2020 Comment

Arithmetic 133,600 1990-2000
Geometric 135,944 1990-2000
Decreasing Rate 132,356 1990-2000
S=250,000, assumed
Logistic 119,923 1980,1990,2000
S=120,000 calculated

H. Population Densities

Given: You have overflown a city, identified the zoning compositions and
plainimetered the areas with the following result:

Zoning Area(acres)
Category
 Lecture No. 1 Population Projections, Page No. 10

Residential - 457
single
Residential - 112
multiple
Apartments 3
Commercial 87
Industrial 22
Open 176

Find: The population

Zoning Area (acres) Usage Pop

Category (people/acre)
Residential 457 20 9,140
- single
Residential 112 65 7,280
- multiple
Apartments 3 550 1,650
Commercia 87 22.5 1,958
l
Industrial 22 10 220
Open 176 0 0
TOTAL 20,248
LECTURE NO. 1............................................................................................................................................1

POPULATION PROJECTIONS..................................................................................................................1

1. GENERAL...................................................................................................................................................1

2. METHODS .................................................................................................................................................1

3. GRAPHICAL..............................................................................................................................................1
A. GENERAL....................................................................................................................................................1
B. METHODS....................................................................................................................................................2
C. FORMULAS...................................................................................................................................................2
4. DECREASING RATE OF GROWTH.....................................................................................................2
A. GENERAL....................................................................................................................................................2
B. FORMULA....................................................................................................................................................3
5. MATHEMATICAL METHODS..............................................................................................................3
A. GENERAL....................................................................................................................................................3
B. PROCEDURE.................................................................................................................................................3
C. S OR LOGISTIC CURVE..................................................................................................................................3
6. RATIO AND CORRELATION METHOD.............................................................................................3
GENERAL.........................................................................................................................................................3
FORMULAS.......................................................................................................................................................4
7. COMPONENT METHOD.........................................................................................................................4

8. EMPLOYMENT FORECAST METHODS.............................................................................................4

9. POPULATION DENSITIES.....................................................................................................................4
A. ZONING CATEGORIES ( TYPICAL, VARY BY COMMUNITY)....................................................................................4
B. PROCEDURE.................................................................................................................................................4
10. EXAMPLES..............................................................................................................................................5
ARITHMETIC GENERAL.......................................................................................................................................5
B. ARITHMETIC NUMERICAL CASE......................................................................................................................5
C. GEOMETRIC GENERAL...................................................................................................................................6
D. GEOMETRIC NUMERICAL CASE.......................................................................................................................6
E. DECREASING RATE OF INCREASE, GENERAL.....................................................................................................7
F. DECREASING RATE OF INCREASE, NUMERICAL CASE..........................................................................................8
G. LOGISTIC METHOD.......................................................................................................................................8
H. POPULATION DENSITIES.................................................................................................................................9