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National Disaster
Bermuda Airport Authority Coordinator & Emergencies
Skyport Measures Organization
www.weather.bm/aviation www.weather.bm
Climatology TV Channels
Radio & Newspaper
Tropical Cyclone Formation Basins
Source http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/tc_basins.htm
These are between 5-15 degrees latitude north & south from the equator and
tend to be easterly as the hurricanes develop and grow.
Tropical Cyclone Formation
The center of high migrates east and west; its position and
strength influencing TC tracks. Generally more westerly in the
first half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and more easterly in
the second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Tropical Cyclone Terminology
BWS, in conjunction
with the NHC, is
responsible for:
- Local Forecasts
- Local Watches
& Warnings
Some of the Updates on NHC Products &
Services for the 2018 Season
• The NHC Public Advisory will now include forecast information
beyond 48 hours; now 72 hours and up to 5 days
Wind Speeds
• (*TS) Hurricane Watch: Possible onset of (TS 34-63 knots)
Hurricane force (64+ knots) winds within 48 hours or less.
• (*TS) Hurricane Warning: Possible onset of (TS 34-63 knots)
Hurricane force (64+ knots) winds within 36 hours.
NB: BWS staff stay at the office for the duration of the
event; maintaining continuity of our 24 hour operations
2018 Hurricane Season briefing update
1. Review of 2017 hurricane season
2. 2018 hurricane season
• Predictions & climatology
• Review of BWS operations
• BWS communications
Named Storms 12 17 15
Hurricanes 6 10 7
Major Hurricanes 3 6 4
WHY? Last year was more active than average, in large due to a weakening to
non-existent El Nino, which impedes tropical cyclone development due to
increased wind shear in the main development region. SSTs also tended to be
warmer than average, adding extra fuel for tropical cyclone development. The
year before was more active than average due to similar reasons.
Tropical Activity in Recent Years
Hurricane Igor
Hurricane Joaquin
Hurricane Nicole
Main table courtesy of the UK Met Office Notable recent Bermuda hurricanes
2018 Hurricane Season
1. 2018 Seasonal Forecast & Why?
2. Climatology for Bermuda
3. Review of BWS operations
4. How BWS communicates with EMO before, during and after a
tropical cyclone affects Bermuda
Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast 2018
ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2015
Forecast Climatology Tropical Colorado NOAA CPC UK Met Office
Parameter (average Storm Risk State issued 5 issued 24 May issued 25
1981-2010) issued 5 April April May
Named 12 12 14 13 11
Storms
Hurricanes 6 6 7 7 6
Major 3 2 3 3 -
Hurricanes
Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast 2018
ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2015
Forecast Climatology Tropical Colorado NOAA CPC UK Met Office
Parameter (average Storm Risk State issued 5 issued 24 May issued 25
1981-2010) issued 5 April April/2 Aug /9 Aug May
/6 Aug
Named 12 12/11 14/12 13/11 11
Storms
Hurricanes 6 6/5 7/5 7/6 6
Major 3 2/1 3/1 3/1 -
Hurricanes
Why are forecast numbers now just below average for this season?
Continued signal of El-Nino developing later in the summer (and cooler SSTs).
El Nino tends to impede tropical cyclone development, due to increased wind
shear and more atmospheric stability in the main development region (MDR).
The shear essentially rips apart the developing tropical disturbance.
REMEMBER, what ever numbers are forecast ahead of each season, it
only takes one storm to make it an active season for us! E.g. Fay,
Gonzalo, Nicole
The very fact that NO tropical watches/warnings were issued by BWS
last season means it is quite likely BWS will issue some this season!
El Nino Forecast for 2018
El Nino phase
La Nina phase
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies
La Nina enhances
hurricane development
This was the case during
the active 2017 season
Beryl
17 October 2014
Major Hurricane
Gonzalo
Historical Record For Bermuda (Hurricanes)
Historical Record For Bermuda (Tropical Storms & Hurricanes)
44
34
August Track Climatology
September Track Climatology
October Track Climatology
November Track Climatology
Reminder of new BWS/NHC Policies…
• BWS in collaboration with NHC, will be able to issue watches &
warnings on tropical disturbances that are not yet a tropical
cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing TS or Hurricane
conditions to the Island within 48hrs
• These will be labelled ‘Potential Tropical Cyclones’
• An example of when this might have been useful was Hurricane
Karen in 2001 which formed on Bermuda’s doorstep – BWS was
able to issue gale and storm warnings but not ‘more impactful’
tropical warnings
• Routine emails on active tropical systems – only one email will
be sent if system is not deemed a threat to Bermuda throughout
its lifetime
BWS Operations
• www.weather.bm
• Automated BTC telephone recordings
977, 9771, 9772, 9773
• Radio interviews (including 100.1FM)
• Marine VHF Channel 2 (Bermuda
Radio)
• CV Channel 4 & WOW Channel 100
BWS Weather Channels
• Social Media – BWS Facebook page:
www.facebook.com/BermudaWeather
Service
• News media announcements
• Communications with EMO, Aviation & Marine operations via email,
fax, phone, satellite phone BWS # +881 631 452 873
• Full redundancy for BWS equipment, electricity & comms
The Tropical Update Bulletin (TUB)