NORTH EAST PERSPECTIVE

Transition
• Is not revival of rural economic activities.
• Is not satisfying humanitarian needs.
• Is not reconstruction of Infrastructure.
• Is not reinstalling systems & structures.
• Difficulties in generic prescriptions.
Context:
• War started in a virtually closed economy in
20th Century and ended in open market in
21st Century.
• North East is a conflict emerging society.
• Extensive damages and destruction.
• Extensive displacement, disabilities &
social consequences.
• Social & economic cost is extensive.
• Transition needs stable environment.
• NEP is in pre-transition stage.
Double-gap situation:
• During the war time NEP suffered a
negative GDP.
• Living standards to be brought to the
present National levels (First gap).
• By that time national levels would have
gone up further.
• Accelerating strategies will be needed to
reach the new national goals (Second gap)
– probably by 2015.
Policy frames:
• National sectoral policies are inadequate
to handle the needs of conflict emerging
societies.
- Regaining Sri Lanka &
- Poverty Reduction Strategy
do not have any strategy for North East.
• RRR framework depends on
complementary measures under national
policies.
Model for Rural Development:
• North East is essentially rural at the
moment.
• Suddenly opened to market forces.
• Presence of powerful corporate sector.
• There will not be a rural economy even
though the rural development takes place.
• Leading to unknown destiny.
Regional Development without
Devolution:
• Regional development needs greater
devolution.
• Partial devolution without
complementary authorities/ not
adequate.
• Devolution hostile bureaucracy.
Frame conditions:
• Possibilities of stalemate situation
- returning to war.
- decline in socio-economic condition
• Humanitarian based rehabilitation &
reconstruction will be the key process during
stalemate situation.
• Sustaining the benefits and rural assets created
questionable.
• Private sector dormancy.
• Frame conditions for sustainable investments yet
to evolve.
• Inadequate legal and Institutional framework.
Selected Development Issues in NEP

Poverty and Malnutrition

Unemployment - Low Growth rate

Vulnerability – Children, Widows, Women,
Elders and Disabled

Housing

Finance – Individual / Institutional inability

Marketing

Production Infrastructure

Technology
Selected Development Issues in NEP
Conti.

Capacity constraints at all level -
Individual, Family , Institutions and
community

Lack of accessibility and Linkages

Selected Implementation Issues

Delay in procurement. (technical
evaluations and tender decisions)

Capacity of the Executing and
Implementing agencies.

Land and re-settlement related issues

Inadequate MIS incomplete and delayed
reporting.

Inadequate communication and
coordination among executing agencies,
implementing agencies, donors and other
stakeholders.
Selected Implementation Issues
Conti.

Lack of qualified technical personnel

Social reluctance & Conflict Environment

Material Supply- Sand, Rubble, Metal, Iron,
Timber

Inadequate Capable Contractors –
Financially, Technically, Professionally

Cost of Material

Capacity of higher level manpower in
departments

Security Procedures
RR & D initiatives:
• Initiatives started during the height of
the war.
• MoU raised aspirations.
• Multilaterals are the leading donors.
 RRR Funding Needs (Us$ Million)
Beyond Grand
Sector Immediate Medium
Medium Total
A. Protection and
105.9 89.6 6.1 201.6
Resettlement

B. Health 70.9 132.4 125.3 328.6

C. Education 54.4 83.4 44.4 183.1

D. Housing 132.4 173.2 304.4 610.0

E. Infrastructure 233.3 608.7 646.4 1488.5

F. Agriculture 67.5 63.1 11.1 141.7

G. Livelihoods, Employment /
30.3 53.5 12.9 96.7
skills and Micro finance
H. Capacity development and
14.4 18.0 3.2 35.6
Institution Strengthening
Total Needs- All Sectors 709.2 1222.9 1153.8 3085.8

Source:- Assessment of Needs in the conflict affected areas - 2003

RRR need & Rate of resource
Mobilization
Total need US $ - 3086mn
(100%)
National roads + railway + power - 733mn
(Excluding Harbours)
General RRR need - 2353mn

Mobilized up to now
On going projects - US $ 267mn (4.9%).
(1999-2004) – NEIAP, NECORD & NEERP.

In pipe line - 377mn (12.1%)

(2004-2010) – CAARP, NEHP, NEIAP-II,
PEACE-II, NECCDEP.
To fill the First Gap Projection
(Exclusively for General RR&R)

• Current rate of Mobilization - US $ 104mn per year.

• Required number of years to mobilize total needs at
present rate of mobilization – 22 years.
• For implementation 27 years required at current
rate. First gap will end in 2031.
(Of course 1st & 2nd Gaps can be arrested
simultaneously)

•?? A worrying Factor.

Impediments to Transition
• Impediments are mostly institutionalized ones.
•In the present programmes, there are designed
and procedural impediments.
•Little linkages – polarizations & fragmentation
process.
•When concepts are thrusted from top,
sometimes they are lost in the process.
Impediments to Transition
Cont..
•Sometimes the concepts are suggestive of
reinforcement of centralization process.
•Sometimes tend to ignore regional
aspirations.
•Very much comfortable with Colombo
centric strategies.
•Ambiguities in the roles of the key actors.
Transition Strategy
•Preparation of Transition Strategy should not end in an
extended version of need analysis.
•In the end individual families, communities & institutions
should have capacities to capture development
opportunities, enjoy the proclaimed rights & to takeover
new responsibilities of development & governance.
•Donor driven transition or people desired transition.