Supply

Hog raising or farming in the Philippines has been a profitable business for

Filipinos through the decades. Despite the challenges facing the swine industry, still

many people are venturing into this enterprise. As of December 2017, there are 430

registered hog farms in the Philippines according to the Bureau of Animal Industry. Hog

or swine industry is the second largest contributor to the total value of the country’s

agriculture coming in next to the rice.

Year Annual Supply

(in metric tons)
2013 1,340,000
2014 1,402,000
2015 1,463,000
2016 1,540,000
2017 1,563,000
Figure 7. Actual Supply 2013-2017 Source: USDA

A. Arithmetic Method

1. Arithmetic Straight Line Method

2017 supply – 2013 supply

Number of years

1,563,000 – 1,340,000
5

= 44,600
 Projected Years Projected Supply
(in metric tons)
2018 2017 figure + 44,600 1,607,600
2019 2018 figure + 44,600 1,652,200
2020 2019 figure + 44,600 1,696,800
2021 2020 figure + 44,600 1,741,400
2022 2021 figure + 44,600 1,786,000
Figure 8. Projected Supply from 2018-2022 using Arithmetic Straight Line
Method.
Standard Deviation= 63,073.92488

2. Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method

Year Annual Supply Increase or Decrease

(in metric tons) Percentage
2013 1,340,000 -
2014 1,402,000 4.62619%
2015 1,463,000 4.3509%
2016 1,540,000 5.2672%
2017 1,563,000 1.4935%
Figure 9. Increase or Decrease of actual supply from 2013-2017

15.7345%
4
Average increase/ decrease= 3.93367%

Projected Years Projected Supply

(in metric tons)
2018 2017 figure x 1.0393367 1,624,482.168
2019 2018 figure x 1.0393367 1,688,382.799
2020 2019 figure x 1.0393367 1,754,797.024
2021 2020 figure x 1.0393367 1,823,823.720
2022 2021 figure x 1.0393367 1,895,565.65
Figure 10. Projected Supply from 2018-2022 using Arithmetic Geometric Curve
Method
Standard Deviation= 95,853.17571
 Year Annual Supply X X2 XY
(1) (in metric ton) (3) (4) (5)
(Y)
(2)
2013 1,340,000 -2 4 -2,680,000
2014 1,402,000 -1 1 -1,402,000
2015 1,463,000 0 0 0
2016 1,540,000 1 1 1,540,000
2017 1,563,000 2 4 3,126,000
Y= 7,308,000 X2= 10 XY= 584,000
Figure 11. Data for computing projected supply using statistical straight line
method
Yc= a+ bX b= XY/ X2

Where: = 584,000/ 10

a= Y/N = 58,400

= 7,308,000/ 5 Therefore:

= 1,461,600 Yc= 1,461,600 + 58,400X

Projected Years X Projected Supply

(in metric tons)
2018 3 1,638,000
2019 4 1,695,200
2020 5 1,753,600
2021 6 1,812,000
2022 7 1,807,400
Figure 12. Projected Supply using Statistical Straight Line Method

Standard Deviation= 82,590.07204