MATH 301: Probability Theory

and Random Processes

Lecture 1: Introduction to Probability Theory

Prepared by:
Engr. Harold Alexis A. Lao
 Lecture Outline
• Set Theory and Probability Axioms
• Conditional Probability
• Bayes’ Theorem
• Independence
• Counting Methods
• Reliability

2
 Probability Theory
• Probability theory deals with the study of random
phenomena, which under repeated experiments yield
different outcomes that have certain underlying pattern
about them.
• The probability theory was developed to describe
phenomena that cannot be predicted with certainty

3
 Probability Theory
• The mathematics of probability begins when the situation is
so complex that we just can’t replicate everything important
exactly – like when we fabricate and test an integrated
circuit.
• In this case, repetitions of the same procedure yield different
results.
• While each outcome may be unpredictable, there are
consistent patterns to be observed when we repeat the
procedure a large number of times.
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 Some Applications of Probability Theory
Communications and Signal Processing

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 Some Applications of Probability Theory
Trunking Theory
• A means for providing access to users on demand from
available pool of channels
• With trunking, a small number of channels can
accommodate large number of random users
• Grade of service (GOS) – a measure of congestion which is
specified as the probability of a call being blocked, or the
probability of a call being delayed beyond a certain amount
of time
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 Some Applications of Probability Theory
Compression of Signals
• Compression techniques provide efficient representations by
using prediction, where the next value of the signal is
predicted using past encoded values
• In order to work, prediction systems require that we know
how the signal values are correlated with each other
• Compression systems are commonly found in cell phones
and digital cameras

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 Some Applications of Probability Theory
Reliability of Systems
• Allows us to build reliable systems from unreliable
components

Marketing
• Stock market – the changes are random

Casino
• Games – outcomes are random
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 Set Theory
• Set – a collection of objects (denoted by capital letters)
• Elements – things that make up the set (denoted by small
letters)
• ∈ - inclusion; ∉ - exclusion
• 𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 – “x is an element of set A”
• 𝑦 ∉ 𝐴 – “y is not an element of set A”
• ⊂ - subset
• 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵 – “the set A is a subset of the set B”
• Equality of sets: 𝐴 = 𝐵 if and only if 𝐵 ⊂ 𝐴 and 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵
9
 Defining a Set
Naming the elements
• 𝐴 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
• 𝐵 = {2, 4, 6, … }

Giving a mathematical rule

• 𝐴 = 𝑥 2 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3, 4
• 𝐵 = {𝑥|𝑥 < 0.5}

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 Set Theory
Universal set
• The set of all things that could be possibly consider in a given
context (denoted by 𝑆 or Ω)
• By definition, every set is a subset of the universal set.

Null set
• A set with no elements (denoted by ∅)
• By definition, ∅ is a subset of every set.
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 Set Operations
• Union of sets 𝐴 and 𝐵 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) – the sum or union of two
sets 𝐴 and 𝐵 is a set whose elements are all elements of 𝐴 or
of 𝐵, or of both.
𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 if and only if 𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 or 𝑥 ∈ 𝐵

𝐴 𝐵
𝐴∪𝐵

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 Set Operations
• Intersection of sets 𝐴 and 𝐵 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) – the product or
intersection of two sets 𝐴 and 𝐵 is a set consisting of all
elements that are common to the set 𝐴 and 𝐵.
𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 if and only if 𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 or 𝑥 ∈ 𝐵

𝐴 𝐵

𝐴∩𝐵 13
 Set Operations
• A collection of sets 𝐴1 , … , 𝐴𝑛 is mutually exclusive if and
only if
𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 = ∅, 𝑖≠𝑗
• Disjoint – for two sets only 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = ∅

𝐵
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 Set Operations
• Partitions – a partition 𝑈 of a set 𝑆 is a collection of mutually
exclusive subsets 𝐴𝑖 of 𝑆 whose union equals 𝑆.
𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐴𝑛 = 𝑆, 𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 = ∅ for 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗
• The collection of sets 𝐴1 , … , 𝐴𝑛 is collectively exhaustive

𝐴2
𝐴1 𝐴3

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 Set Operations
• De Morgan’s Law

𝐶
𝐴∪𝐵 = 𝐴𝐶 ∩ 𝐵𝐶

𝑐
𝐴∩𝐵 = 𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝐶

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 Probabilistic Models
Probabilistic Model – a mathematical description of an
uncertain situation
Elements of a Probabilistic Model
1. The sample space 𝑆 , which is the set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment.
2. The probability law, which assigns to a set 𝐴 of possible
outcomes a nonnegative number 𝑃 𝐴 that encodes our
knowledge or belief about the collective likelihood of the
elements of 𝐴.
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 Probabilistic Models

Probability Law
Event 𝐵
𝑃𝐴
𝑃𝐵
Experiment

Event 𝐴
𝐴 𝐵 Events

Sample Space 𝑆 18
 Experiment
• Consists of a procedure, observations and model.
Procedure: flip a coin
Observation: observe whether head or tail
Model: heads and tails are equally likely; each flip is unrelated to the
previous flips
• Two experiments with the same procedure but with different
observations are different experiments
Example: Flip a coin three times.
a. Observe the sequence of heads and tails
b. Observe the number of heads
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 Sample Space, Event and Outcome
Sample space – the finest-grain, mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive set of all possible outcomes
• Finest-grain property – all possible distinguishable outcomes
are identified separately
• Mutually exclusive – if one outcome occurs, no other
outcome also occurs
• Collectively exhaustive – every outcome of the experiment
must be in the sample space
Event – a set of possible outcomes of an experiment
Outcome – any possible observation of an experiment
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Sample Space, Event and Outcome

Set Algebra Probability

Set Event

Universal Set Sample Space

Element Outcome

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 Example
Suppose we roll a six-sided die and observe the number of
dots on the side facing upwards. What is the sample space, 𝑆?
• The event 𝐸1 = 𝑅𝑜𝑙𝑙 4 𝑜𝑟 ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑒𝑟 =
• The event 𝐸2 = 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑑𝑑 =
• The event 𝐸3 = 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 =

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 Sequential Models
• Many experiments are sequential in nature
Examples: tossing a coin three times, etc.
• Tree-based sequential description (tree diagram)
1, 1
1 1, 2
1, 3
4 1, 4
2
Second 3
Roll 2 3
1

1 2 3 4 4
First Roll
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4, 4
 Probability Axioms
A probability measure 𝑃[∙] is a function that maps events in
the sample space to real numbers such that:
Axiom 1: (Nonnegativity) For any event A, 𝑃 𝐴 ≥ 0.
Axiom 2: (Normalization) 𝑃 𝑆 = 1.
Axiom 3: (Additivity) For mutually exclusive events 𝐴1 and 𝐴2 ,
𝑃 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 = 𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2
More generally, if the sample space has an infinite number of
elements and 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑛 is a sequence of disjoint events,
𝑃 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐴𝑛 = 𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 + ⋯ + 𝑃 𝐴𝑛
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 Consequences of the Probability Axioms
•𝑃 ∅ = 0

• 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴

• For any 𝐴 and 𝐵,

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃[𝐴 ∩ 𝐵]

• If 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵, then 𝑃 𝐴 ≤ 𝑃[𝐵]
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 Discrete Uniform Probability Law
If the sample space consists of 𝑛 possible outcomes
which are equally likely, then the probability of any
event 𝐴 is given by

number of elements of 𝐴
𝑃𝐴 =
𝑛

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 Example
Suppose we roll a pair of six-sided dice and observe the
number of dots on the side facing upwards.
a. What is the sample space, 𝑆?
b. What is 𝑃 the sum of the rolls is even ?
c. What is 𝑃 the first roll is larger than the second ?
d. What is 𝑃 at least one roll is equal to 4 ?

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 Example: Continuous Uniform Law
• Two random numbers 𝑋 and 𝑌 in [0,1].
𝑌

𝑋
1

• What is 𝑃 𝑋 + 𝑌 ≤ 1 2 ?
• What is 𝑃 𝑋, 𝑌 = (0.3, 0.5) ?
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 Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of the event 𝐴 given the occurrence of
the event 𝐵 is

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃𝐴𝐵 =
𝑃𝐵

• Only defined when 𝑃 𝐵 > 0

• Read as “the probability of 𝐴 given 𝐵”
• Provides a way to reason about the outcome of an experiment
based on partial information
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 Properties: Axioms of Probability
Axiom 1: Nonnegativity
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 ≥0

Axiom 2: Normalization
𝑃 𝐵𝐵 =1

Axiom 3: Additivity
If 𝐴 = 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ ⋯ with 𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 = ∅ for 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗, then
𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐴2 𝐵 + ⋯
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 Example
Roll two fair four-sided dice. Let 𝑋1 and 𝑋2 denote the number
of dots that appear on die 1 and die 2, respectively. Let 𝐴 be the
event 𝑋1 ≥ 2 and let 𝐵 denote the event 𝑋2 > 𝑋1 . Solve for the
following:
a. 𝑃[𝐴]
b. 𝑃[𝐵]
c. 𝑃[𝐴|𝐵]

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 Example
Three cards are drawn from an ordinary 52-card deck without
replacement.
a. What is the probability that none of the three cards is a
heart?
b. What is the probability that the first two cards are not hearts
and the third card is a heart?

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 Multiplication Rule
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃[𝐶|𝐴 ∩ 𝐵]

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 Law of Total Probability
Let 𝐴1 , … , 𝐴𝑛 be disjoint events that form a partition of the
sample space (each possible outcome is included in exactly one
of the events 𝐴1 , … , 𝐴𝑛 ) and assume that 𝑃 𝐴𝑖 > 0 for all 𝑖.
Then, for any event 𝐵,

𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵 + ⋯ + 𝑃 𝐴𝑛 ∩ 𝐵
𝑛

𝑃[𝐵] = 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 𝑃[𝐴1 ] + ⋯ + 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴𝑛 𝑃[𝐴𝑛 ] = 𝑃[𝐵|𝐴𝑖 ]𝑃[𝐴𝑖 ]

𝑖=1 34
 Law of Total Probability
𝐴2

𝐴1 𝐴3

𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵 + ⋯ + 𝑃 𝐴𝑛 ∩ 𝐵
𝑛

𝑃[𝐵] = 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 𝑃[𝐴1 ] + ⋯ + 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴𝑛 𝑃[𝐴𝑛 ] = 𝑃[𝐵|𝐴𝑖 ]𝑃[𝐴𝑖 ]

35
𝑖=1
 Example
A company has three machines 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵3 for making 1𝑘Ω
resistors. It has been observed that 80% of resistors produced
by 𝐵1 are within 50Ω of the nominal value. Machine 𝐵2
produces 90% of resistors within 50Ω of the nominal value. The
percentage of machine 𝐵3 is 60%. Each hour, machine 𝐵1
produces 3000 resistors, 𝐵2 produces 4000 resistors and 𝐵3
produces 3000 resistors. All of the resistors are mixed together
at random in one bin and packed for shipment. What is the
probability that the company ships a resistor that is within 50Ω
of the nominal value?
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 Bayes’ Theorem
Let 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑛 be disjoint events that form a partition of the
sample space, and assume that 𝑃 𝐴𝑖 > 0 for all 𝑖. Then, for any
event 𝐵 such that 𝑃 𝐵 > 0,

𝑃 𝐵|𝐴𝑖 𝑃 𝐴𝑖
𝑃 𝐴𝑖 𝐵 =
𝑃𝐵

𝑃 𝐵|𝐴𝑖 𝑃 𝐴𝑖
𝑃 𝐴𝑖 𝐵 = 𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴𝑖 𝑃 𝐴𝑖
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 Bayes’ Theorem
• 𝑃 𝐴𝑖 − “prior” probabilities
or initial “beliefs” 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴𝑖 𝑃 𝐴𝑖
𝑃 𝐴𝑖 𝐵 =
𝑃𝐵
• We know 𝑃[𝐵|𝐴𝑖 ] for each 𝑖
𝑃 𝐵|𝐴𝑖 𝑃 𝐴𝑖
• We wish to compute 𝑃[𝐴𝑖 |𝐵]
𝑃 𝐴 𝑖 𝐵 = 𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴𝑖 𝑃 𝐴𝑖
• Revise “beliefs” given that 𝐵
occurred
• “Posterior” probability
38
 Example
From the previous example,
• The probability that a resistor is from machine 𝐵3 is 𝑃 𝐵3 =
0.3.
• The probability that a resistor is acceptable, i.e., within 50 Ω
of the nominal value, is 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.78.
• Given that a resistor is from machine 𝐵3 , the conditional
probability that it is acceptable is 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵3 = 0.6.
What is the probability that an acceptable resistor comes from
machine 𝐵3 ?
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 Example
A test for a certain rare disease is assumed to be correct 95% of
the time (if a person has the disease, the test results are
positive with probability 0.95, and if the person does not have
the disease, the test results are negative with probability 0.95).
A random person drawn from a certain population has
probability 0.001 of having the disease. Given that the person
just tested positive, what is the probability of having the
disease?

40
 Independence
• Events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent if and only if
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃[𝐵]
• When events A and B have nonzero probabilities,
𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 , 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑃[𝐵]
• If 𝑛 ≥ 3, the sets 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑛 are independent if and only if
a. Every set of 𝑛 − 1 sets taken from 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑛 is independent
b. 𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ ⋯ ∩ 𝐴𝑛 = 𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐴2 … 𝑃[𝐴𝑛 ]

• Independent vs disjoint
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 Example
A short-circuit tester has a red light to indicate that there is a short circuit and
a green light to indicate that there is no short circuit. Consider an experiment
consisting of a sequence of three tests. In each test the observation is the color
of the light that is on at the end of a test. An outcome of the experiment is a
sequence of red (r) and green (g) lights. Suppose that each outcome (a
sequence of three lights, each either red or green) is equally likely.
a. Are the events R2 that the second light was red and G2 that the second
light was green independent?
b. Are the events R1 that the first light was red and R2 that the second light
was red independent?
42
 Example
Integrated circuits undergo two tests. A mechanical test
determines whether pins have the correct spacing, and an
electrical test checks the relationship of outputs to inputs. We
assume that electrical failures and mechanical failures occur
independently. Our information about circuit production tells us
that mechanical failures occur with probability 0.05 and
electrical failures occur with probability 0.2. What is the
probability model of an experiment that consists of testing an
integrated circuit and observing the results of the mechanical
and electrical tests?
43
 Counting Methods
Fundamental Principle of Counting
• If subexperiment 𝐴 has 𝑛 possible outcomes, and
subexperiment 𝐵 has 𝑘 possible outcomes, then there are 𝑛𝑘
possible outcomes when you perform both subexperiments.
• Generally, if an experiment 𝐸 has 𝑘 subexperiments
𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , … , 𝐸𝑘 where 𝐸𝑖 has 𝑛𝑖 outcomes, then 𝐸 has 𝑘𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖
outcomes.

44
 Example
• Shuffle a deck and observe each card starting from the top.
The outcome of the experiment is an ordered sequence of the
52 cards of the deck. How many possible outcomes are there?
• Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the
choice of chips from two brands, a hard drive from four,
memory from three, and an accessory bundle from five local
stores. How many different ways can Sam order the parts?

45
 Permutation
• Permutation – an ordered sequence of distinguishable objects
• The number of k-permutations of 𝑛 distinguishable objects is

𝑛!
𝑛 𝑘 = 𝑛𝑃𝑘 = 𝑛 𝑛 − 1 𝑛 − 2 … 𝑛 − 𝑘 + 1 =
𝑛−𝑘 !
𝑛 𝑘 - the number of possible k-permutations of n
distinguishable objects

• Also called sampling without replacement

46
 Example
• Shuffle the deck and choose three cards in order. How many
outcomes are there?
• A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a student
club consisting of 50 people. How many different choices of
officers are possible if
a. There are no restrictions;
b. A will serve only if he is president;
c. B and C will serve together or not at all;
d. D and E will not serve together?
47
 Combination
• The number of ways to choose 𝑘 objects out of 𝑛
distinguishable objects is
𝑛 𝑛 𝑘 𝑛!
= 𝑛𝐶𝑘 = =
𝑘 𝑘! 𝑘! 𝑛 − 𝑘 !
• For an integer 𝑛 ≥ 0,
𝑛!
𝑛 𝑘 = 0, 1, … , 𝑛
= 𝑘! 𝑛 − 𝑘 !
𝑘
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
• “𝑛 choose 𝑘”
48
 Example
• In how many ways can a coach choose 5 starters from a
basketball team of 11 players (assuming each player can play
any position)?
• A young boy asks his mother to get 5 Game-Boy cartridges
from his collection of 10 arcade and 5 sports games. How
many ways are there that his mother can get 3 arcade and 2
sports games?
• Suppose we draw seven cards from a standard deck of 52
cards, what is the probability of getting a hand without any
queens? 49
 Sampling With Replacement
• Given 𝑚 distinguishable objects, there are 𝑚𝑛 ways to choose
with replacement an ordered sample of 𝑛 objects.
• For 𝑛 repetitions of a subexperiment with sample space 𝑆 =
𝑠𝑜 , … , 𝑠𝑚−1 , there are 𝑚𝑛 possible observation sequences.
• For 𝑛 repetitions of a subexperiment with sample space 𝑆 =
{𝑠𝑜 , … , 𝑠𝑚−1 }, the number of length 𝑛 = 𝑛0 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑚−1
observation sequences with 𝑠𝑖 appearing 𝑛𝑖 times is
𝑛 𝑛!
=
𝑛𝑜 , … , 𝑛𝑛−1 𝑛0 ! 𝑛1 ! … 𝑛𝑚−1 !
50
 Example
• In how many ways can 7 graduate students be assigned to 1
triple and 2 double hotel rooms during a conference?

51
 Independent Trials
• The probability of 𝑛0 failures and 𝑛1 successes in 𝑛 = 𝑛0 + 𝑛1
independent trials is
𝑛 𝑛−𝑛1 𝑛1
𝑛
𝑃 𝑆𝑛0 ,𝑛1 = 1−𝑝 𝑝 = 1 − 𝑝 𝑛0 𝑝𝑛−𝑛0
𝑛1 𝑛0
• A subexperiment has sample space 𝑆 = 𝑠𝑜 , … , 𝑠𝑚−1 with
𝑃 𝑠𝑖 = 𝑝𝑖 . For 𝑛 = 𝑛0 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑚−1 independent trials, the
probability of 𝑛𝑖 occurrences of 𝑠𝑖 , 𝑖 = 0, 1, … , 𝑚 − 1, is
𝑛 𝑛0 𝑛𝑚−1
𝑃 𝑆𝑛0 ,…,𝑛𝑚−1 = 𝑝0 … 𝑝𝑚−1
𝑛0 , … , 𝑛𝑚−1
52
 Example
We found that a randomly tested resistor was acceptable with
probability 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.78. If we randomly test 100 resistors, what
is the probability of 𝑇𝑖 , the event 𝑖 resistors test acceptable?

Ans.
100 𝑖 100−𝑖
𝑃 𝑇𝑖 = 0.78 1 − 0.78
𝑖

53
 Example
Each call arriving at a telephone switch is independently either
a voice call with probability 0.7, a fax call with probability 0.2, or
a modem call with probability 0.1. What is the probability of
𝑆𝑣,𝑓,𝑚 , the event that we observe 𝑣 voice calls, 𝑓 fax calls and 𝑚
modem calls, out of 100 observed calls?

Ans.
100 𝑣 𝑓 𝑚
𝑃 𝑆𝑣,𝑓,𝑚 = 0.7 0.2 0.1
𝑣, 𝑓, 𝑚
54
 Reliability Problems
• Calculating the probability that a particular operation
succeeds
• Consists of 𝑛 components, each component succeeds with
probability 𝑝, independent of any other component

55
 Reliability Problems
• Let 𝑊𝑖 denote the event that component 𝑖 succeeds
• Components in series:
𝑃 𝑊 = 𝑃 𝑊1 𝑊2 … 𝑊𝑛 = 𝑝 × ⋯ × 𝑝 = 𝑝𝑛
• Components is parallel:
𝑃 𝑊 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑊𝑐 = 1 − 1 − 𝑝 𝑛

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 Example
An operation consists of two redundant parts. The first part has
two components in series (𝑊1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑊2 ) and the second part
has two components in series (𝑊3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑊4 ). All components
succeed with probability 𝑝 = 0.9 . Draw a diagram of the
operation and calculate the probability that the operation
succeeds.

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Problem Set #1

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 Problem #1
A six-sided die is loaded in a way that each even face is twice as
likely as each odd face. All even faces are equally likely, as are all
odd faces.
a. Construct a probabilistic model for a single roll of this die.
b. Find the probability that the outcome is less than 4.

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 Problem #2
A batch of one hundred items is inspected by testing four
randomly selected items. If one of the four is defective, the
batch is rejected. What is the probability that the batch is
accepted if it contains five defectives?

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 Problem #3
An experiment consists of testing two integrated circuits that come
from the same silicon wafer, and observes each case whether a
circuit is accepted (𝑎) or rejected (𝑟). Let 𝐴 denote the event that
the first chip tested is rejected and 𝐵 denote the event that the
second chip is rejected. Consider the a priori probability model
𝑃 𝑟𝑟 = 0.01, 𝑃 𝑟𝑎 = 0.01, 𝑃 𝑎𝑟 = 0.01, 𝑃 𝑎𝑎 = 0.97
Solve for the following:
a. 𝑃 𝐴
b. 𝑃 𝐵
c. 𝑃[𝐵|𝐴]
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 Problem #4
If an aircraft is present in a certain area, a radar detects it and
generates an alarm signal with probability 0.99. If an aircraft is
not present, the radar generates a (false) alarm with probability
0.10. We assume that an aircraft is present with probability
0.05.
a. What is the probability of no aircraft present and a false
alarm?
b. What is the probability of aircraft presence and no
detection?
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 Problem #5
To communicate one bit of information reliably, cellular phones
transmit the same binary symbol five times. Thus the
information “zero” is transmitted as 00000 and “one” is 11111.
The receiver detects the correct information if three or more
binary symbols are received correctly. What is the information
error probability 𝑃 𝐸 , if the binary symbol error probability is
𝑞 = 0.1?

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 Problem #6
Consider 10 people who are attending a party. Assume that
every person has an equal probability of being born on any day
during the year, independent of everyone else, and ignore the
additional complication presented by leap years. What is the
probability that each person has a distinct birthday?

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 Problem #7
We draw the top 7 cards from a well-shuffled standard 52-card
deck. Find the probability that:
a. The 7 cards include exactly 3 aces.
b. The 7 cards include exactly 2 kings.
c. The 7 cards include exactly 3 aces, or exactly 2 kings, or both.

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