Case Study

Methodology to Assess Potential Flood Damages

in Urban Areas under the Influence
of Climate Change
Akinola Adesuji Komolafe, Ph.D. 1; Srikantha Herath, Ph.D. 2; and Ram Avtar, Ph.D. 3
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Abstract: Frequencies of extreme precipitation are likely to increase under changing climate, which may result in more damage to exposed
properties in the future. This study presents a methodological framework for estimating potential economic damages to flood hazards
based on current and future climatic information using loss functions. Loss functions for Sri Lanka’s residential structure categories were
derived from empirical data through a questionnaire survey in Kelani River basin, Sri Lanka. Flood prediction was done using a bias-corrected
5-year time series of the Japanese Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)’s Regional Climate Model (RCM) precipitation data for current
(1985–1989) and near future climate (2028–2032), and a hypothetical future climate projection using a 10% increase in current high rainfall
events. The authors simulated extreme river discharges and inundation depths for potential current and future flood events using similar
hydrologic element response (SHER) and geographic information system (GIS) grid-based models, respectively. Simulated extreme flood
hazards were integrated with the established loss functions and exposures to simulate the potential damages using a raster-based spatial
model. Results revealed a little reduction in the MRI projected near future discharges and flood damages, but an increase in the frequency
of flood events compared to the current projection. However, the hypothetical projection showed a 10.2% increase in potential damages in the
future climate compared with the current climate. Future adaptation measures in the river basin are suggested. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)
NH.1527-6996.0000278. © 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Author keywords: Climate change; Unified loss function; Flood damage; Vulnerability; Geographic information systems (GIS);
Engineering.

Introduction decades (1984–2013) revealed that climatic/weather events account

In recent years, global natural disasters have witnessed upward
trends with a devastating effect on lives and properties, which
has resulted in huge economic losses in both developing and de-
veloped countries (Gencer 2013; UNISDR 2009b, 2013a). The in-
crease in these disasters and their associated losses are attributed to
the increasing unpredictability in trends, distributions, frequency,
and intensity of weather-related hazards in the face of climate vari-
ability and change, coupled with the population growth and urbani-
zation of coastal areas (IPCC 2012; Uddin et al. 2013; UNISDR
2009a, 2013a). According to the Centre for Research on the Epi-
demiology of Disasters (EM-DAT-CRED) (2015), approximately
87 million homes have been damaged or destroyed by weather-
related hazards since 1995. With the potential increase in the future
exposure of people and assets, coupled with climate change greater
losses and damages as a result of severe extreme weather events are
expected (IPCC 2014; Kreft et al. 2012). A close examination of
the global disaster database from EM-DAT for the last three
1
Lecturer and Researcher, Dept. of Remote Sensing and Geoscience
Information System, Federal Univ. of Technology, PMB 704, 340001
Akure, Ondo-State, Nigeria (corresponding author). E-mail: aakomolafe@
futa.edu.ng
2
Professor, Institute for the Advance Study of Sustainability, United
Nations Univ., 5 Chome-53-70 Jingumae, Shibuya, Tokyo 150-8925, Japan.
3
Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Environmental Science,
Hokkaido Univ., N10W5 Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810, Japan.
Note. This manuscript was submitted on July 5, 2016; approved on
August 14, 2017; published online on January 9, 2018. Discussion period
open until June 9, 2018; separate discussions must be submitted for indi-
vidual papers. This paper is part of the Natural Hazards Review, © ASCE,
ISSN 1527-6988.
for approximately 69% of total economic losses globally, with
flood events causing 25% of all the total losses (Herath and Wang
2009; UNISDR 2013b).
Ample evidence from theoretical models and empirical studies
indicates an increase or decrease in the precipitation across regions
largely attributable to the increase in the greenhouse gas emission
from human activities (IPCC 2007, 2014; Mishra and Herath 2014;
Wobus et al. 2014). With the irregularity in the intensity and fre-
quency of precipitation an increase in heavy rainfall may lead to
flooding, and this might increase the potential flood economic dam-
ages in the future, while a decrease in rainfall that causes droughts in
some regions is being manifested across many tropical regions
(Groisman et al. 2005; IPCC 2014; Karl and Knight 1998; Komolafe
et al. 2014; Wobus et al. 2014). Potential impacts of climate variabil-
ity and change on flood events have been put forward by several
scholars (Dankers and Feyen 2008; Dhital et al. 2013; Mishra and
Herath 2014). Although future risk estimation is associated with
many uncertainties, some studies have been able to project future
economic impacts of flood (CIMNE et al. 2013; James and Hall
1986; Yin et al. 2011). Recently, flood risk evaluation of future
climate change using a probabilistic approach has been carried out
(Chen et al. 2015; Muis et al. 2015; Ward et al. 2014; Webster et al.
2012) to understand probable economic risks associated with various
climate extremes in the future. Most of the flood risk projections are
often based on aggregated vulnerability models, which does not al-
low for a detailed definition of economic risk associated with various
building types (de Moel et al. 2012). In order to adequately prepare
for disaster risk reduction, especially in the building code design and
policy, future risk must be able to differentiate the vulnerability and
economic implications of each building exposure to flood hazards
under the influence of climate change. This would ensure detailed

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Nat. Hazards Rev., 2018, 19(2): 05018001

 and differentiated potential economic damages, and assist in decision
making and the formulation of policies for future disaster risk reduc-
tion (IPCC 2014; Kreft et al. 2012).
Flood Damage Assessments
In the past, traditional flood control approaches predominantly
have been the use of structural flood defense, restoration of flood
plains, and creation of retention areas for the adaptation to flood
risk. Most recently, there has been a shift from this approach to a
new concept of flood risk management, with more emphasis on
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nonstructural flood mitigation measures. The new concept places
more importance on flood economic risk, which is the probability
that given loss or damage will occur in a certain area within a
specified time period under floods of a given intensity. Nowadays,
most flood risk management projects and policy decisions are
based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA). This makes flood damage
assessments very important in decision making for flood risk man-
agement and disaster risk reduction (Brémond et al. 2013; Merz
et al. 2010). Flood damage estimation forms an integral part in
flood risk assessment; it provides information on the potential
damages for a particular flood event, which are of great importance
in risk analysis. Flood damage estimates are very essential tools for
assessing flood vulnerability, flood risk mapping, optimal deci-
sions on flood mitigation measures, comparative analysis, and
financial appraisals for the reinsurance sector (Merz et al. 2010).
Two basic approaches are very common in flood damage as-
sessment: (1) the use of a detailed questionnaire survey of the af-
fected people and properties; and (2) the use of stage damage or
loss functions. The former is done after a particular flood event to
assess the incurred losses thorough a field survey, which sometimes
can be an extremely difficult, laborious, and time-consuming task.
Because of this, the latter (loss functions) are used for rapid estima-
tion of incurred and potential losses to flood (Herath et al. 1999).
Loss function describes the relationship between flood damage
states of the exposed objects and flood inundation characteristics
(Dutta et al. 2003; Herath et al. 1999; Herath and Wang 2009;
Su et al. 2005; Tapia-Silva et al. 2011). It explains how susceptible
the element at risk (exposure) is to the flood hazards. The unit
loss model was first developed in the 1960s by the United States
of America (White 1964) followed by the United Kingdom
(Penning-Rowsell and Chatterton 1979), Australia (Smith and
Greeaway 1988), and Japan (Dutta and Herath 2001; Dutta and
Nakayama 2009; MOC 1996). Some other researchers have devel-
oped various methodologies for loss and damage estimation using
different methods (Chormanski et al. 2011; Dutta et al. 2003; Herath
and Wang 2009; James and Hall 1986; Jonkman et al. 2008; Kar and
Hodgson 2012; Salimi et al. 2008; Su et al. 2005; Tapia-Silva et al.
2011). Two primary methods are usually adopted in the develop-
ment of flood loss models: the empirical and synthetic method.
The former is based on the use of damage data from after-flood
events, while the latter is dependent on the expert judgment via
what-if questions. Loss functions are developed for various catego-
ries of the exposures using different statistical fitting models
(e.g., polynomial, linear, square root, etc.) (Freni et al. 2010;
Notaro et al. 2014). Most flood damage estimation (especially in
developed countries) makes use of loss damage functions to assess
both losses afterward and potential future losses for different flood
scenarios (Dutta et al. 2003; Islam and Ado 2000; Ke et al. 2012;
Mohammadi et al. 2014). The estimated damages are usually com-
pared with the observed (incurred) losses from the postflood survey
for different damage categories such as building, infrastructures,
agricultural crops, etc. (Dutta et al. 2003; Kreibich et al. 2005).
© ASCE 05018001-2
Nat. Hazards Rev., 2018, 19(2): 05018001
Geographic information systems–based flood damage modeling
has evolved in recent years as an approach to overcome difficulties
in a traditional after-flood damage survey and the spatial extents of
the inundation areas (locally or regionally). The flood damage
modeling process requires huge amount of spatially and temporally
distributed data, which have to be linked and integrated. The
damage model usually requires a dynamic spatial link between the
inundation parameters, exposure attributes, and its vulnerability.
This makes geographic information system (GIS) the most effective
system to predict flood damages at any hazard conditions, as it al-
lows for the analyses and integration of all the spatial components
of flood damage modeling. Because of its spatial analysis capabil-
ity, complex predictive modeling of flood economic losses can be
analyzed by examining the interactions between hydrological char-
acteristics, duration and extent, land use systems (infrastructures,
agriculture, houses, etc.), population characteristics, and economic
conditions. A raster-based spatial model was developed by Dutta
et al. (2003) to estimate flood damages by using a combination of
hydrologic and loss models. Their results showed good agreement
with the estimated damages from a survey conducted after the flood
event. Honghai et al. (2006) made use of GIS and remote sensing
technology to estimate the expected value of loss of life to flood
damage in Wyoming County, West Virginia, Monte Carlo, United
States. A raster-based GIS damage estimation was used to estimate
flood damages/loss in Shih-Jr City and vicinity, Northern Taiwan,
by Su et al. (2005). According to Su et al. (2005), a raster-based
approach was preferred to the parcel-based method because, in
most developing countries, detailed information such as socioeco-
nomic activities on each land parcel in the map is difficult to es-
timate, hence the use of raster-based method by dividing the flood
hazards (depth) map region into cells of equal area, using census
information and applying stage-damage curves.
However, existing loss functions and classification of exposures
are mostly aggregated, and do not reflect detailed components of
different structural responses to flood water. Subdivision of resi-
dential exposure classes to more detailed categories would allow
for more detailed stage-damage functions and better differentiate
economic values at risk. The objective of this study is to establish
a methodological framework and demonstrate the possibilities of
estimating and differentiating potential economic damages emanat-
ing from flood disasters to buildings categorized according to a
global framework under current and future climate using general-
ized loss functions. In this study, more detailed loss functions,
which take into consideration the residential building structural
types, derived from an empirical approach are applied to forecast
potential future flood damages under the influence of climate
change in the Kelani River basin in Sri Lanka.
Study Area and Previous Studies
The study area is Kelani River basin, one of the most vulnerable
river basins in Sri Lanka (Fig. 1). The river stretches approximately
192 km long with a catchment area of approximately 2,292 km2,
and ranks as the fourth longest river in Sri Lanka. The river flow,
which mostly depends on the season and the three operational res-
ervoirs, averages 25 m3 =s in the dry period and ranges between 800
and 1,500 m3 =s during raining seasons (Ministry of Irrigation
Resources 2009). The catchment is naturally divided into two on
the basis of topography, with the steep and flat terrain making up
the upper and the lower catchment, respectively. The lower catch-
ment, being a plain area, receives much water from the upper basin,
and coupled with poor drainage systems often results in river over-
flow and continuous flooding in the area. The average annual
Nat. Hazards Rev.
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Fig. 1. (a) Sri Lanka boundaries map; (b) Kelani River basin
rainfall is estimated to be approximately 3,450 mm (Ministry of
Irrigation Resources 2009). The lower part of the basin (approxi-
mately 500 km2 ) lies within the Colombo districts, which are the
most densely populated and the hub of commercial activities of
Sri Lanka. Because of the high risk to the largest and capital city
of the country, a comprehensive flood risk evaluation ranging from
flood forecasting to flood risk modeling is very essential in order to
reduce potential disaster risk in the region and the entire country.
The river basin flood is basically associated with very high rainfall
in the lower and the upper catchments. Historically, the most ex-
treme events, which have resulted in devastating floods that caused
large-scale damages to both public and private properties, were re-
corded in the years 1989, 1992, 2005, 2008, and 2010 (DMC 2010;
Niroshinie et al. 2011). With the influence of climate change, the
basin is expected to witness an increase of extreme events in the
future, which may result in further damages and economic losses,
especially in Colombo City. In order to effectively plan for disaster
risk reduction and risk management, estimating the potential dam-
ages that would occur at different extreme events is very important.
A few studies on the impact of climate change on flood have
been carried out in the study area (De Silva et al. 2007, 2011;
Niroshinie et al. 2011). The study done by De Silva et al. (2007)
on climate change data downscaling for Sri Lanka made use of the
output of Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research
model (HadCM3) for selected scenarios for 2050, based on SRES,
Scenarios A2 and B2. The results indicated an increase in the rain-
fall intensity between 42–57% and 19–27% in Scenarios A2 and
B2, respectively, in Colombo. With the result, it is expected that the
increase in rainfall would have huge effects on infrastructure as
well as urban systems in Colombo and its environs. Most recently,
Niroshinie et al. (2011) investigated extreme flooding under future
climate change scenarios for Colombo. The study made use of the
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
© ASCE 05018001-3
Nat. Hazards Rev., 2018, 19(2): 05018001
Atmospheric Research Mark 2 (CSIRO Mk2) global climate model
(GCM) for 2010–2030, 2031–2060, and 2061–2090. The result of
the flood model from extreme events due to climate change showed
that, in the event of climate change in the future, there will be more
flood events than the recent past. These studies investigated the fu-
ture change in intensity and frequencies of future precipitations
and subsequently the degree of flood inundation impacts, but were
not able to evaluate the potential economic impacts associated with
these extremes from climate change.
Methodology
Estimation of flood economic risk makes use of the flood hazard,
exposure, loss function, and the economic values of elements at risk
(Komolafe et al. 2015). In order to meet the objective—namely, to
demonstrate the possibilities of assessing and differentiating flood
economic risk to residential structures under current and future
climatic conditions—established loss functions, exposures, and
projected climatic flood hazards were integrated using a raster-
based spatial model. Damage projections were done in two ways:
(1) using downscaled climate data for current and near future; and
(2) using expected future regional climate change precipitation
increase. The Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) regional
climate model precipitation data were extracted and bias corrected
for MRI current, MRI near future, and projected future climate pre-
cipitation for extreme events and simulated in SHER and Flo-2D
models to generate the expected flood hazards under the current
and future climate scenarios. Exposures were extracted from
remotely sensed data, and were combined with the simulated flood
depths and loss functions to estimate potential flood damages for
both scenarios (Fig. 2). This study assumes a static land use for
both current and future climatic conditions.
Nat. Hazards Rev.
 Current and
Future Climate
Hydrological
(MRI) data Flood modeling
modeling
Climate
precipitation
projection
Extreme events for
Unified Loss GIS-based damage
Functions Model current and future
climate
Economic
exposure
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Expected flood damages for
Landuse current and future climate
Fig. 2. Methodology
Climate Data and Bias Corrections
MRI Climate Precipitation Data
In order to estimate potential flood damages associated with near
future climate change, future precipitation and frequency scenarios
were generated from daily precipitation data obtainable from
MRI-RCM20, regional climate model (RCM) (Scenario A2) with
a 20 km mesh size. The RCM20 is a high-resolution atmospheric
model for projecting climate change developed by the Meteorologi-
cal Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).
It has a horizontal resolution of 20 km and 36 vertical levels.
Because of the inconsistencies and existing large bias between
the raw global climate model and observed data in Sri Lanka, which
may not predict the future climate accurately, only 5-year precipi-
tation data with highly extreme events for both current and near
future events were considered. Precipitation data from 1985 to
1989 and 2028 to 2032 were selected for 20 rain gauge stations
within the basin to assess flood risk associated with current and
near future conditions, respectively. Previous extreme events in
the study area fall within the selected periods. The study made
use of the observed rainfall data from the 20 rain gauges for the
selected years (1985–1989) for the bias correction of the MRI cli-
mate data. Bias correction was carried out using quantile mapping
bias correction method. The quantile mapping (QM) method min-
imizes the differences between the observed/predicted data based
on empirical probability distributions (Kum et al. 2014; Panofsky
and Brier 1958). It assumes a constant bias of the GCM model to
historical observations during projections. In this study, the bias
correction was done for all the selected current and near future cli-
mate data. The daily data at each station were subdivided into
hourly data by assuming the hourly distribution at Albian estate
hourly data (in Kotmale Basin, Sri Lanka).
Hypothetical Climate Precipitation Projection
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007)
climate projection for monsoon periods in South Asia under highest
future emission trajectory of the Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES A1F1) and lowest future emission trajectory path-
ways (Scenario B1) showed an increase of 7 and 5% between 2010
and 2039, 13 and 11% from 2040 to 2069, and 26 and 15% from
2070 to 2099, respectively (Cruz et al. 2007). The IPCC (2014) cli-
mate change report in South Asia, according to Hijioka et al. (2014),
revealed a noticeably declining trend with more frequent monsoons.
It is clearly stated that the frequency of heavy precipitation events
© ASCE
Nat. Hazards Rev., 2018, 19(2): 05018001
is increasing, while light rain events are decreasing. However, in
Southeast Asia a wet day rainfall increases by 22 mm per decade
(Hijioka et al. 2014). Climate projection for South Asia monsoon
by Sabade et al. (2010) showed that overall there is an approxi-
mately 1 mm=day increase in precipitation under Scenario B1,
and 1.5 mm=day under Scenarios A1B and A2. A South Asia pro-
jection by Hassan et al. (2015) using RegCM4 showed a projected
increase between 0.5 and 1.5 mm=day under Representative Con-
centration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, and between 1 and 2 mm=day
under RCP 8.5. Generally, most projections have shown a general
average increase in precipitation between 0.5 and 2 mm=day.
However, in Sri Lanka past studies have revealed an increase in
extreme precipitation between 10 and 20% (De Silva et al. 2011;
Niroshinie et al. 2011). Considering the uncertainty associated with
current GCM projections, an additional scenario with a 10% in-
crease in the intensity of high rainfall events of the GCM current
5 years’ precipitation data was analyzed in the present study. The
10% increase was only added to the period with high discharges
(monsoon); the increased amount was subtracted from the rainfall
values corresponding to the dry season. These were input into the
hydrological model to simulate the potential river discharges, from
which the extreme discharges were extracted for estimating poten-
tial flood inundation.
Flood Hazard and Hydrological Modeling
The Kelani River basin was divided into two: the upstream and
downstream (Fig. 1); the upstream acts as watershed and inflow
to the downstream, which are mostly urban areas. A 5-year time
series of upstream discharges for both current and future climate
were simulated using the bias corrected rainfall data for 20 rain
gauge stations in the similar hydrologic element response model.
The SHER model is used because of its cost effectiveness, less
computer resources, and less simulation time consumption. The
model is a slope-oriented distributed hydrological model, which
is made up of the submodels of surface, subsurface, and aquifer.
The surface model uses the kinematic wave equation for surface
flow computations, while the subsurface model uses the one-
dimensional Richards’ equation. For the aquifer model, Darcy’s
flow is assumed (Herath et al. 1990, 1992, 1995). It can be divided
into two types of blocks that represent similar hydrologic character-
istics, such as recharging and discharging areas. Other subblock
areas, such as impervious, paddy, and compressed soil, can be
assigned (Herath et al. 1992). Data used for the simulation of
the hydrology of the runoff at the Hanwella gauge station are:
(1) bias corrected MRI current, near future rainfall data, and pro-
jected future precipitation (10% increase in maximum current cli-
mate precipitation); (2) soil parameters [such as saturated hydraulic
conductivity (vertical), saturated hydraulic conductivity (slope),
saturated moisture content, residual moisture content, and the
conductivity-suction and conductivity-moisture content relations];
(3) Manning coefficients; and (4) aquifer parameters. Simulated
discharges for current and near future climate are shown in Fig. 5.
Selection of Extreme Flood Discharges for
Current and Future Climates
Extreme discharge outputs of the hydrological model from the
upstream for each climate scenarios (current and future) served
as inflow to the downstream (made mostly of residential and com-
mercial areas). Because of the short temporal extent of the climate
data (5 years for both scenarios), frequency analysis could not be
carried out. The extreme discharges were selected using peak
05018001-4 Nat. Hazards Rev.
 discharge as threshold for each climate scenarios. The peak dis-
charge at Kelani River basin ranges from 800 to 1,500 m3 =s; at
these points the river starts flooding. In this study, 800 m3 =s
was used as threshold to extract the flood events for each of the
current, near future climate scenarios (Fig. 5). The peak flood dis-
charge of the projected climate was also extracted and simulated to
estimate potential future flood inundation (Fig. 11).
Flood Inundation Simulation
The approach used in this study requires flood simulation for the
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extreme flood discharges of flood events for both current and future
climate. The inundation modeling was done using Flo-2D. Flo-2D
is a volume conservation flood-routing model that can be used to
simulate overland and channel flow over a complex topography. It
is also a physical process model that routes rainfall-runoff and flood
hydrographs over unconfined flow surfaces or in channels using the
dynamic wave approximation to the momentum equation (Flo-2D
2009). Its two-dimensional (2D) flood-routing capabilities are ac-
complished by numerically integrating the equation of motion and
conservation of volume for flood water. The distribution of flood
waves within the flow domain is controlled by topography and re-
sistance to flow (Flo-2D 2009). Model data inputs for the flood
simulation are as follows: (1) the topography data (obtained from
the Department of Survey, Colombo), (2) inflow flood hydrograph
for each current and future climate simulated from the upstream
roughness coefficients [assigned based on the Chow (1959) rain-
runoff model using the land use map of the study area in shape
file format], and (3) rainfall distribution for the selected flood
period and infiltration parameters. The Green Amp method of in-
filtration was used for the simulation. The Green Amp method uti-
lizes initial loss, initial saturation, capillary suction head, hydraulic
Fig. 3. Urban built areas and density classes
© ASCE 05018001-5
Nat. Hazards Rev., 2018, 19(2): 05018001
conductivity, and soil porosity. The soil infiltration parameters were
assigned manually to the grids based on the existing work done in
the study area (De Silva et al. 2012). The grid size of 250 m was
used to ensure a fast simulation. The coarse resolution was used
because of the large area of the river basin and the smaller memory
of the computer resources, which resulted in slow flood wave’s
propagation over the grids. The Kelani River channel was incorpo-
rated into the grid to simulate the river flow in the downstream
using the river cross sections from Hanwella, Atigala, Kaduwela,
Ambatale, Kelanimulla, Wennawatta, and Nagalagam Street.
Exposure
Urban Extent and Density
In this paper, a static urban land cover was assumed for both current
and near future climate scenarios—no land use projection was
done. Urban extent was derived from Landsat-8-OLI by integrating
land cover (water, built-up, and vegetation) indices using principal
component analysis (PCA) (Fig. 3). Urban land use is made up of
three principal components: the impervious surface materials
(built-up), vegetation, and open water. Because of a mixed spectral
as a result of the urban land class heterogeneities, an integrated
built-up extraction was applied using the method developed by
Xu (2007). The method incorporated the combination of three
thematic-oriented indices that represent three urban land use com-
ponents: (1) normalized difference built-up index (NDBI); (2) soil
adjusted vegetation index (SAVI); and (3) modified normalized dif-
ference water index (MNDWI). Normalized difference built-up in-
dex was used to generate the built area, SAVI was carried out to
enhance the vegetation areas, and the MNDWI was analyzed to
enhance the water bodies in the study area. These components were
Nat. Hazards Rev.
 Table 1. Area Covered by Urban Density Types for Each Secretariat and damage ratio against the flood water depths (Fig. 4). The damage
Their Total Number of Buildings ratio is the ratio of the repair cost of the structure after the flood
High dense Medium Low dense Total event to the replacement (actual) cost of the structure [Eq. (1)]
urban dense urban urban numbers of
Secretariats (km2 ) (km2 ) (km2 ) buildings Repair Cost
Structural Damage ratio ð%Þ ¼  100 ð1Þ
Bigiyama 0.88 19.6 13.5 48,090 Replacement Cost
Thimbirigasyaya 6.93 9.89 1.7 52,763
Sri Jayewardenepura 1.44 12.04 1.4 27,144 Flood damage curves for four classified building types: unrein-
Moharagama 0.79 19.38 4.2 49,459 forced masonry walls (URM), concrete frame with unreinforced
Kolanniwa 1.77 15.88 3.8 44,663 masonry walls (CFURM), wood, and commercial have been estab-
Kelaniya 1.47 16.83 2.6 33,404 lished by the authors (Fig. 4) and validated in the Kelani River
Kaduwela 1.35 32.26 22.1 64,791
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basin. The validation was done by simulating the potential flood

Colombo 11.8 6.09 1.3 65,831
Homagama 0.50 12.21 34.6 61,505
damages of the May 2010 flood event in the study area and com-
Dompe 0.29 1.66 25.1 39,369 pared with the observed/surveyed flood damages of this event.
Padukka 0.17 0.67 13.3 17,007 The validation showed that the models predicted approximately
Hanwella 0.42 1.75 20.8 25,461 70% of the observed data.
Kesbewa 0.71 25.81 11.2 62,653
Dehiwala 3.96 14.55 2.1 22,352
Mahara 0.19 18.93 8.3 52,897 Flood Damage Modeling
Ja-Ela 0.76 32.44 11.9 52,358
This study only aims to demonstrate the approach to estimating and
Gampaha 0.21 20.85 13.2 51,111
Watala 3.74 26.30 9.8 43,170
disaggregating flood damages to generic building types under the
influence of climate change. Damage estimation involves a spatio-
dynamic link between flood hazards, land use, and the loss model.
The authors estimated potential damages for both current and future
integrated to effectively differentiate the built-up area from other climate flood using a modified raster–based spatial model, which
urban land use classes in the study area (Fig. 3). The building data- incorporates building densities and the ratios [Eq. (2)]. Flood
base for all the 18 divisional secretariats was obtained from the depths were derived from flood simulation land use that was ana-
Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka (Table 1). In order lyzed from the remotely sensed data, and building information
to estimate building density, the image was also classified into made use of the available data at the Census and Statistics Depart-
urban densities (high, medium, and low) using supervised classi- ment and Disaster Management Centre, Ministry of Disaster
fication and the areas covered were combined in multiple linear Management, Sri Lanka. Using the ratio of the building types in
regression with the total number of buildings for each district the study area and the building densities, the building types were
secretariats in the study area (Table 1 and Fig. 3). disaggregated within each grid. With this, total flood damages
within each cell were disaggregated into the different building
types. The equation used was modified after Dutta et al. (2003) as
Loss Functions
Loss functions define the degree of susceptibility of exposure to X
n

flood hazard, which are often used for the assessments of flood
economic damages to urban land covers. The loss function as ex-
plained earlier is necessary because of the need to compare risk
globally and also for detailed differentiation of flood economic
damages to elements at risk. This requires a detailed classification
of building types that are applicable globally. Because of a lack of
empirical data from country to country, the existing documented
loss functions for globally consistent categories building types were
established during a global risk assessment (GAR) workshop in
Australia making use of expert judgments (Masqsood et al. 2013).
This study made use of empirically established loss functions for a
set of generic building types in Sri Lanka. The building classifica-
tion was based on classifications by the World Agency of Planetary
Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction (WAPMERR) as doc-
umented by the United Nations office of Disaster Risk Reduction
(UNISDR). Generalized loss functions for flood damage estimation
were developed for residential building types in Sri Lanka using an
empirical approach through a questionnaire survey.
A total of 297 flood damage data were collected through a ques-
tionnaire survey in the study area on the economic loss impacts on
the most recent floods. Percentages of the sample corresponding to
the building types are: (1) unreinforced masonry bearing walls
(43%); (2) concrete frame with unreinforced masonry infill walls
(41%); and (3) wooden (9%) and commercial (7%). The data in-
clude different building classes, repair and replacement costs of the
building structures, with their corresponding flood water heights.
Flood damage curves were established by plotting the structural
Dsði;jÞ ¼ ½BDði; j; kÞ  BRði; j; kÞ  FAði; j; kÞ
k¼1
 ECs ði; j; kÞ  Cs ði; j; kÞ ð2Þ
where for any grid (i; j), Dsði;jÞ = total damage to structure; n = total
number of types of building structure; BD(i; j; k) = building
density (building units=km2 ); BR(i; j; k) = ratio of building Type
k; FA = average floor area per building unit of structure Type k;
ECs = estimated cost of a building of structure Type k per unit area;
and Cs = depth-damage function for building structure Type k.
All rasters used in this simulations were resampled to 30 m res-
olutions for near accurate results (Komolafe et al. 2015). The cost
price used in this estimation is $165 per m2 , based on the specifi-
cations by the building contribution associations in Sri Lanka. Most
residential buildings replacement cost ranges between 21,527.83
and 43,055.66 LKR=m2 in Sri Lanka (LKR means Sri Lankan
Rupee). The lower end of the cost is predominantly in the medium
and low urban areas, which are most affected by flood. Floor areas
as reported by the 2010 census published by Census and Statistics
Department (2012) showed that a 64.5% proportion of household
units that are within the floor area are greater than or equal to
500 ft2 (46 m2 ) in Sri Lanka, whereas approximately 36.5% occu-
pied less than 500 ft2 (46 m2 ). According to the report there is not
much difference between the urban and rural area in terms of floor
area occupied by the residential buildings. A large proportion lies
between 500 and 750 ft2 . In this study, the average floor area was
taken as 600 ft2 (56 m2 ).

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(a) (b)

(c) (d)

Fig. 4. Empirically established flood damage curves for global building types in Sri Lanka: (a) residential unreinforced masonry (URM);
(b) residential concrete frame with unreinforced masonry walls; (c) residential wooden structure; (d) commercial building

Results and Discussion
Hydrological Simulation Results
As explained earlier, the upstream river discharges at Hanwella
gauge station were simulated using the SHER model. Because
of limited temporal resolution of the rainfall data, frequency analy-
ses of the discharges for both scenarios were not carried out. How-
ever, the peak discharge (the discharge at which the river overflows)
was used as threshold to understand the expected flood occurrences
and extremes in the river. The river discharge threshold of
800 m3 =s was used to identify the flood events (Fig. 5) for current
and near future climates. There is a general slight decrease in near
future flood discharges compared to the current discharges, but the
frequency of flood occurrence is expected to increase (Fig. 5).
Fig. 6 shows the mean monthly discharge for the current
and future climate. Higher discharges are shown between June
and September, which are the southwest monsoon season, with
more heavy rainfall. Within this period more discharges are
expected for the near future climate, especially in the months of
June, July, and September. Higher discharge is revealed in the
month of August in the current climate as compared to the near
future climate; this can be attributed to the 1988 and 1989 flood
disaster events in the river basin.

Fig. 5. Simulated current (1985–1989) and near future discharge (2028–2032)

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Fig. 6. Simulated mean monthly discharge (m3 =month)
The outputs of this simulation are solely dependent on the cli-
mate precipitation projections from RCMs and GCMs, which are at
present associated with lots of uncertainty, especially in the moun-
tainous regions like the upstream portion of the study area. For ex-
ample, the MRI data used in this study showed a very large bias
when compared with the observed data. Although a correction
was made and the projected rainfall corrected for the past rainfall,
the accurate prediction of future climate is uncertain. However,
from the results, as confirmed by climate projections for Sri Lanka
(Lo and Koralegedara 2015), there is not much change in the in-
tensity of flood in near future compared to the current climates, but
most significant is the frequency of occurrences, which increases
within the selected 5 years for near future climate. The research
conducted by Lo and Koralegedara (2015) on the impact of climate
change on urban rainwater harvesting in Colombo City using
different global climate models for the periods 2011–2030,
2046–2065, and 2081–2100 showed that all the GCMs used in
the study area predicted more rainfall toward the end of this century
(2080–2099), but in the near future (2011–2030) there is not much
difference in the intensity of rainfall when compared with the his-
torical (current) climate. The peak flood discharges in current and
near future climate are 1,387.64 and 1,143.49 m3 =s, respectively,
which shows a potential decrease in flood intensity in the near
future, assuming the same physical factors. Within the selected
5 years for the current climate, two major flood events have oc-
curred in 1988 and 1989, whereas the near future climate projects
expected three major flood events between 2028 and 2032. This
shows that, even though there is a likelihood of reduction in the
intensity of flood discharges in the near future as compared with
current climates, the frequency of occurrences of flood might in-
crease. This result corroborates the IPCC (2014) projection for
South Asia region, which emphasizes the possibility of the decrease
in rainfall intensity and the increase in the frequencies of occur-
rence (Hijioka et al. 2014).
The extent and depth of flood inundation were estimated from
the Flo 2D model. Figs. 7 and 8 show the flood inundation maps for
the most extreme events for both current and near future climate.
It is shown in the simulated inundation maps that the extent of
inundation for both current and the near future varies for all the
potential flood events. Estimated expected inundation areas for cur-
rent and near future are 118 and 95 km2 , respectively; there is not
much difference in the flood depths. The maximum water depths
estimated for the current and the near future are approximately 7.8
and 7.4 m, respectively; these are mostly situated along the Kelani
River and its tributaries (Figs. 7 and 8). However, the hypothetical
future climate projection predicted relatively high water depths
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Nat. Hazards Rev., 2018, 19(2): 05018001
of 8.9 m, very high flood depths that may result in more damage
in the future.
The accuracy of future projections cannot be verified and thus
depends on the future forecasts and the assumptions made. Limited
time series of precipitation data, static land use, and ambiguities in
global and regional climate projections for Sri Lanka all may con-
tribute to result uncertainty. Existing precipitation projections for
Sri Lanka show a likely increase by 3.6 to 11.0% in 2030, 15.8
to 25% in 2050, and 31.3 to 39.6% in 2080, with many uncertain-
ties and low confidence (Ahmed and Suphachalasai 2014).
Flood Discharge Based on Increased Rain
Intensity Event
The river discharges based on the projected 10% increase in the
current high rainfall events showed a significant increase in peak
discharge (1,605.2 m3 =s) (Fig. 9) compared to the current climate
discharge (1,387.64 m3 =s) and the near future climate discharge
(1,143.49 m3 =s). The peak discharge of the projected climate is
approximately 9% higher than the current climate. Using the
threshold of peak flood river discharge of 800 m3 =s, apart from
the higher flood intensity in the future, it is expected that the flood
frequencies would increase in the study area compared to the cur-
rent climate, especially in the wet season (Fig. 9). The simulated
inundation revealed an extended inundation area and an increase in
flood depths (Fig. 10). Generally, in all the flood scenarios in the
study, the highest flood heights are mostly experienced along the
river course, mostly in Hanwella, Dompe, and Biyagama. The low-
est water heights are experienced in the Colombo area. However, it
is expected that the flood risks and vulnerability will be higher in
most of the communities within river proximity.
Flood Damage Estimates
Flood risk assessment in this study only considered expected flood
damages for the simulated flood events for both current and
near future climate in Kelani River basin using the derived loss
functions. This study could not employ the probabilistic approach
because of the short-term time series data used. Table 2 shows the
expected flood damages to various building exposures for current
and near future extreme events. As in the flood discharges, the cur-
rent climate shows higher flood damages for all the building types
in the study area. The expected total flood damages for both current
and near future are approximately US$1.74 and 1.50 million, re-
spectively. As for the damage projection based on a 10% increase
in maximum precipitation, the potential total flood damages for
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(a)

(b)

Fig. 7. Extracted simulated extreme: (a) flood hydrograph; (b) flood inundation for current climate

Fig. 8. Extracted simulated extreme: (a) flood hydrograph; (b) flood inundation for near future climate

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Fig. 9. Simulated future discharge using climate projection of 10% precipitation increase

(a)

(b)

Fig. 10. Extracted simulated extreme: (a) flood hydrograph; (b) flood inundation for the future climate projection

Table 2. Estimated Flood Damages (US$)

Building type Current climate Near future climate Future scenario with 10% precipitation increase
URM 849,952.76 725,888.30 946,331.99
Concrete 634,269.57 541,925.92 705,590.89
Wooden 171,540.96 145,897.77 192,515.23
Commercial 83,096.31 71,308.25 91,658.75
Projected total damages 1,738,859.60 1,485,020.25 1,936,096.86

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Fig. 11. Simulated flood damages to current and future climates
the future extreme show a significant increase (approximately US
$1.94 million) compared to the damages attributable to the current
extreme (Fig. 11). This is hypothetical though, assuming an in-
creased projection in future precipitation under climate change
for Sri Lanka. The projected future damages in the study area
showed a 10.2% increase in potential damages under this scenario
compared with the current climate. This increase can be attributed
to the potential increase in the flood intensity due to the effects of
climate change. It is also obvious that there might be an increase in
the building exposure in the future, which will have a great impact
on the future damages.
As mentioned earlier, this study is expected to establish a frame-
work for estimating disaggregated future flood damages to different
building types under climate change by applying the established
generalized loss functions. Understanding the costs of potential im-
pacts of future climatic hazards would help in policy and decisions
in reducing its possible effects.
In terms of vulnerability, as revealed in Fig. 4, wooden and un-
reinforced masonry walls are more vulnerable to flood than the
concrete frame with unreinforced masonry. Wooden structures in
particular are characteristically highly vulnerable to water and
are expected to have a higher damage ratio with respect to flood
water height. Although wooden structures have higher vulnerability
compared to other building classes, they account for the lowest dam-
ages because of the small distribution of wooden structures in the
study area. Unreinforced masonry wall (URM) building structure
shows higher potential damages followed by the concrete frame
and unreinforced masonry walls (CFURM), and then the wooden
and commercial structures. The vulnerability and damage estimation
results can provide adequate information for building codes design
and policy implementation toward a disaster reduction plan.
Note that these estimates are associated with some uncertainties
from RCM precipitation projections and the land use. In fact, there
could be a huge land use change between the time considered for the
current climate and future climate. Contrary to the current land use
used in this study, the future urban expansion and population growth
are expected to greatly influence the flood characteristics and sub-
sequently the damage estimates. Change in land use is expected to
contribute to rain runoff, the vulnerability and the exposure, and
hence the expected flood damages in the study area. Given the rate
of urbanization and population increase in most coastal areas of the
world, especially in the study area (home to more than 25% of
the Sri Lankan population), which consists of the major capital city
of Sri Lanka (Colombo), it is expected that flood damages would be
more in the future than the current as simulated (Hanson et al. 2011;
© ASCE 05018001-11
Nat. Hazards Rev., 2018, 19(2): 05018001
Hassan et al. 2015). According to the Department of Census and
Statistics (2012), Sri Lanka’s population has been increasing since
the first census in 1871. Between 1981 and 2012, the country
witnessed average yearly population growth rates of 1.02%. It is
expected in the future that the present yearly increase in population
will be sustained or exceeded, which will correspondingly increase
the property exposures and subsequently the expected damages.
The simulated damages therefore are expected to be exceeded by
at least 1.02% for all the climate scenarios considered in this study.
Based on the proposed intensity of flood hazards in the Kelani
River basin under climate, the estimated potential future damage
projection and the possibility of the increase in exposures due to
urbanization, there is a need for more proactive measures and pol-
icies for disaster risk reduction in the study area. It is well known
that the increase in wealth often results in people building toward a
floodplain rather than on the higher ground, thereby exposing
people and properties to continuous flooding. This general trend
is obvious in many countries, and the potential flood impacts will
continue except that adaptation strategies are incorporated with the
increasing wealth and growth (Hanson et al. 2011). The following
adaptation and risk management measures are hereby suggested in
the study area:
• Improved flood protection along the Kelani River and all its
tributaries;
• Introduction of early warning systems;
• Improved disaster responses and evacuation;
• Building regulation and policies, and strict adherent to building
codes. Engage in the construction of resilient buildings. Because
of its high vulnerability to flood, wooden structures should be
avoided and more concrete frame buildings should be encouraged;
• Introduction of insurance schemes; and
• Physical and land use planning. Reduce urban developments in
the floodplains.
Conclusions
This study established a methodological framework for estimating
potential losses to detailed Sri Lankan residential building expo-
sures categorized under a globally consistent framework using loss
functions in a raster-based spatial model, under the influence of cli-
mate change in Kelani River basin, Sri Lanka. Disaggregation of
building exposures within the cell grids employed a modified math-
ematical model that incorporates building ratios and densities. This
methodology simplifies the usually aggregated loss models that ex-
ist in most countries. With this disaggregation, it will be easier to
differentiate vulnerability and risk associated with various elements
at risk when projecting future flood impacts instead of the existing
aggregated land use. These are very essential in planning and policy
making for reduction in future flood risk, and can assist in land use
planning, especially in the building code design and regulations. It is
expected to assist policy makers and various stakeholders in the as-
sessment of climate change–induced flood damage in order to im-
prove resilience and adaptation to climate change. Also, loss models
will be very useful as tools to improve insurance systems in the coun-
try as it helps to differentiate degree of risk to various structures.
Climate projections from MRI precipitation simulation show a
reduction in the flood discharges for extreme events in the near fu-
ture compared to the current, but it is expected that frequencies of
the occurrence of the flood events will increase in the near future.
A further estimation using a projected future scenario of 10% pre-
cipitation increase compared to current maximum rainfall showed a
significant increase in potential flood damages. This result can
serve as a likely worst-case scenario for the near future.
Nat. Hazards Rev.
 Because of the level of biases associated with the downscaled
global climate model precipitation data in the study area, accurate
prediction of future flood damages could not be estimated. Also,
the projection is subject to some uncertainties such as the short time
series data (5 years for both the current and future climate) and land
use change. The latter (land use) may have a greater influence on
the flood damage forecast because of possible changes to land use
land cover in an urban system like the study area. The time differ-
ence between the selected current and the near future will bring
about many changes other than the climate, and especially land use,
which is not incorporated in the analysis. However, based on the
past yearly population growths of 1.02%, it can be concluded that
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there will be a corresponding increase in built-ups and the expected
damages in the future. Future application of this methodological
framework will have to consider the land use change effects on the
future flood damages and make use of improved global and regional
climate model outputs, as well as the longer time series of the pre-
cipitation for frequency and probabilistic flood risk analyses. Inun-
dation depths for flood frequencies can be generated as an input to
the established model and the procedures in this study to simulate
flood economic risk probability for frequency of extreme events.
Acknowledgments
The authors appreciate the Japan Foundation for United Nations
University (UNU) and the University Network for Climate and
Ecosystems Change Adaptation Research (UN-CECAR) ASIA for
providing funds for this research. The contribution of Flo-2D
Software for supporting this research with Flo-2D software is
greatly appreciated. The authors also gratefully acknowledge Japan
Aerospace Exploration (JAXA) for providing satellite data and
Meteorological Research Agency (MRI) for providing data for this
study.
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