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10 traits to look for in multibaggers
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Most of us are aware of the conventional stock picking metrics; visionary promoters, good management,
scalable business and rich ratios.
Stock investor Soumya Malani suggests that investors get more specific in their hunt for alpha. The CEO
of ShareBazaar App, he tweets at @insharebazaar.
Here, Malani narrows down on some patterns that investors could keep an eye on.
1. Look at the negative working capital pattern.
At first blush that sounds a bit off since negative working capital would signify a company’s liabilities
outweighing its assets. This puts the company in a feeble light. But that’s not what I am focusing on.
Negative working capital also means the business which operates on Other People's Money, or OPM, or the
suppliers money. Advances from customers is a good hint to go by.
2. Companies which are leaders in a niche area and have a tiny market cap.
If you have the patience to wait for the business to grow and the market to subsequently realise its
potential, you are sitting on a huge multibagger. This reminds me of the domestic consumption story. If
one looks back at the marketcap of Cera Sanitaryware, Symphony or La Opala, it’s clear they were just
too miniscule when compared to the scale they catered to, with an efficient supply chain and distribution
network in place. Eventually, tailwinds prevailed, and the market catapulted them into a different orbit.
3. Keep an eye on acquisitions and takeovers.
Uniply and Kingfa are cases in point, each over30 baggers in the last 34 years.
In retrospect, Kingfa was a commonsense choice. This Chinese giant grew from nothing to be Asia’s
largest compounder and boasted a track record of 65% CAGR for 22 long years in China. When it saw its
market getting saturated in China, it acquired an Indian company (then known as Hydro S&S) by paying 3x
premium to its prevailing market price. This increased the efficiency and the stock became a huge
multibagger.
4. Eradication of noncore diworsification.
A company could sport a sturdy and profitable core business, but owing to loss making noncore units, the
overall Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss statement would be a farrago of misrepresentation. A shrewd
move would be to sell those units and plough back the funds into its core business which would further
accelerate growth. The market loves such stories.
5. Companies that outperform during huge headwinds.
TV Today is a classic example. Barring the Aaj Tak parent, every single company in the media sector was
bleeding profusely. Digitisation was a game changer with the stock becoming a 12 bagger in last 45 years.
Find companies which are making money when others from the same sector are unable to find their feet.
6. Demerger in a sizeable company.
A billiondollar marketcap company can demerge a unit with a ratio of 20:1 share. The demerged entity,
as per the ratio would quote at say $100 million which would make no sense for foreign investors. Foreign
institutional investors, or FIIs, have got a marketcap stipulation and hence they tend to sell out in haste
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without even caring about the intrinsic value. Arvind Infra and Marico Kaya are examples of huge value
creation.
7. Companies eating market share of market leaders.
Amara Raja and Havells ruthlessly cannibalized on the market share of leaders such as Exide and Crompton
Greaves, respectively. Fifteen years ago, they were known to none with very thinly traded volumes. The
upstarts are now the numero uno players in their own space.
8. Secondrun companies in sectors where the leader has been a multibagger.
This is a very interesting pattern which often gets played out in different sectors. At some time, the
valuation of the significant player gets so stretched that investors start to look for the trivial peer where the
valuation gap is much narrower. Think AvantiWaterbase, RelaxoMirza and KRBLChaman Lal.
9. Strong leverage but very efficient in working capital management.
Often, quality niche players backed by visionary pedigrees, to conquer more ground and stay undisputed
would resort to capital expenditure through longterm debt. At some time, the capex would be covered for
the next 34 years and just the maintenance capex remains. So, all operating cash flow goes in debt
repayment and net profit vaults.
10. Legacy companies witnessing the induction of a new generation.
The predecessors were habituated in siphoning off aka black money but the new players at the helm, who
in all probability would be freshly groomed from renowned business schools, would be inclined to look at
the market cap which is pure white stuff.
It's simple math. A smallcap promoter may siphon off Rs 5 crores via unscrupulous means. On the flip
side, the next generation would consider showing the same through books of accounts. That same amount
would mean an extra Rs 100 crores in market cap considering a PE of 20. On even a 50% ownership they
get richer by Rs 50 crores. No prizes for guessing which is a better route. Presently, I believe that this area
offers serious moneymaking opportunities and moves likes demonetisation further reinforces my stand.
Soumya tweets @insharebazaar. You can see a few select tweets here.
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Source: www.morningstar.in
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