2

Meteorology

2.1 The Atmosphere

Dispersion of any accidental release in the atmosphere is strongly dependent on

wind and weather conditions. This section is intended to cover information
important in describing the atmosphere in its lowest regions, within 3000 meters
of the ground. This is where all of the accidental releases under discussion could
occur, and where the people who may be affected by them live.
In investigation of potential hazards from a hypothetical accidental release
we are often first interested in the set of atmospheric conditions that result in the
highest concentrations at the greatest downwind distance. For ground-level
releases this generally consists of calm, low wind speed conditions where
turbulent mixing rates are limited. With elevated releases, worst-case weather
conditions are those which bring the highest pollutant concentrations down to
ground level where they can result in a greater potential for human exposure or
creating other hazards. Other considerations, such as the impact of a plume on
a building or hillside, may also need to be considered on a site-specific basis.
Beyond examining dispersion under worst-case atmospheric conditions, we
may also be interested in how often a particular release, if it occurred, would
result in a problem. This depends on the full probability distribution of weather
conditions, wind speeds, and wind directions expected at the given location.

2.2. Turbulence in the Atmosphere

Turbulence is an irregular and random motion present in most fluid flows. It is

the dominant mechanism in the mixing and dilution of atmospheric releases.
One characteristic of turbulence is the hierarchy of different random fluctuating
velocity scales, or eddies. In the atmosphere these scales can range from global
patterns down to local and near-instantaneous fluctuations in wind direction and
speed.
 Different mechanisms are responsible for maintaining turbulent motion at
different time scales. Within a 10- to 60-minute time period in the atmosphere,
wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric turbulence, and weather conditions can
usually be assumed to have relatively constant time averages (while still varying
randomly over time). The mean wind velocity, u, and the variance in the mean
wind, GM ^ , for instance, are given by

Over longer time periods, the effects of moving weather fronts, storms, and
changing solar heat flux must usually be considered. Also, over a longer time
duration, pollutants travel farther and the effects of topology are often more
important. In accident scenarios that last less than approximately 60 minutes,
it is sufficient to proceed using a single set of averaged weather conditions.
Longer duration releases can be analyzed with a set of wind and weather data,
either as a time series, or alternately as a statistical distribution of different
possible conditions and the persistence of these conditions over time.
When time periods of approximately 60 minutes or less are considered, the
two important mechanisms of turbulent mixing in the atmosphere come from
(1) mechanical turbulence generated from wind drag at the ground, and (2)
vertical density stratification in the atmosphere. These mechanisms are dis-
cussed more completely in the following sections.
The "eddies," or random fluid motions, generated by mechanical turbulence
have time scales in the range of milliseconds to a minute. Convective thermal
cells, associated with daytime density stratification, have time scales that range
from one to five minutes. Any time-averages of atmospheric parameters, includ-
ing concentration averages from dispersing plumes, will become more variable
over shorter averaging times, especially at averaging time below 10 minutes
where there is a better chance that the averaged sample will be insufficient to
capture information from enough random eddies to ensure a consistent value.
This idea is captured by the autocorrelation function,

which describes how well velocity (or any relevant variable) correlates with
itself as a function of time displacement. The integral time scale, or average
correlation time, is given by
 Averages taken over time intervals less than TI,M will vary considerably from
sample to sample. This variability is much less with averages taken over a time
duration greater than Ti,M.

2.3. Mechanically Generated Turbulence

As wind passes over the ground, surface friction and internal wind shear retards
the flow near the ground. At great heights above the ground, the wind is largely
unaffected by surface friction, and acquires a velocity determined primarily by
the horizontal pressure gradient of the local weather system and Coriolis forces
which result from the rotating earth.
The surface obstacles and features that disturb the wind near the ground
result in atmospheric turbulence and a net drag force between the ground and
the upper atmosphere. This aerodynamic drag, and the associated mechanically
generated atmospheric turbulence, increases with higher wind speeds and with
greater number, height, and spacing of ground surface features. An aerodynamic
surface roughness height, zo, is often used to characterize the averaged effects
of surface features on the wind flow. This roughness height may range from less
than a millimeter for ice and mud flats to several meters in an urban area. The
effect of roughness height on the vertical wind profile is shown in Figure 2.1.
Increasing roughness height and greater wind speed generally increase the level
of turbulence in the atmosphere. Atmospheric boundary layer wind profiles are
discussed in Randerson (1984) and Pasquill and Smith (1983).

2.4. Vertical Density Stratification and Buoyancy

Turbulent mixing in the lower atmosphere is strongly affected by changes in air

density with height. These changes in air density are driven by the daily variation
in radiative heating and cooling of the ground and may result in stable, neutral,
or unstable average vertical density and temperature stratification as shown in
Figure 2.2.
Neutral atmospheric conditions occur when the total enthalpy in the atmos-
phere is near-constant with height, or when heat transfer between the ground
and the atmosphere is very small. Neutral conditions are approached in overcast,
windy weather conditions. Because of gas compressibility and the contribution
of gravity head, air density and temperature both decrease slightly with height
in a neutral atmosphere (near the ground, temperature decreases at a rate of 980C
per 100 meters). This is illustrated in Figure 2.2.
Unstable conditions occur in daytime as the ground surface is heated by the
sun. This warms the atmosphere from below and leads to an unstable density
 town outskirts crop land

deser,t cam
large urban centers shrubs and trees short grass

ice, mud falst

woodland forest mown grass

l sea 0.001 00.001

I I

•i
1.0 0.1 0.01 0.001
z , Aerodynamic Surface Roughness Height (meters)

Roughness
Height
T Vertical Wind Profile

Figure 2.1. The effect of surface obstacles and roughness height on vertical wind profiles.
stratification, with warm, buoyant air underlying a layer of cooler air. Transient
thermals result, with the hot air rising and expanding adiabatically in long
vertical columns. This rise continues up to a mixing height where the air density
inside the thermal is equal to the surrounding air density. This mixing height is
also the height of the mean temperature inversion (change in the sign ± ofdT/dz
with height) as shown in Figure 2.2. Areas of downward subsidence surround
each thermal. Thermal convection in the unstable atmosphere leads to high
mixing rates in the vertical direction and rapid dilution of pollutant releases.
At night, there is radiative cooling between the ground surface and the night
sky. Conduction and convection then cool the atmosphere from below, resulting
in a stable vertical temperature and density profile, with density decreasing with
increasing height. This stable stratification leads to limited vertical mixing rates
in the atmosphere. Dilution rates of pollutants in calm, stably-stratified condi-
tions can be several orders of magnitude less than in an unstable, convective
atmosphere. A stable density stratification also occurs above the mean tempera-
ture inversion height in unstable atmospheric conditions.

2.5. Atmospheric Stability Classifications

There are a number of methods available for quantifying the state of the
atmosphere. The best method is often through direct measurements, which can
be very useful in estimating dispersion in an actual accidental release, or in
dispersion model verification. The most basic method follows the Pasquill-Gif-
ford stability classification scheme. This requires only simple estimates of wind
speed, solar insolation (in daytime), and cloud cover (at night). Bounds for this
classification scheme are given in Table 2.1.
The Pasquill-Gifford stability classes range from A through F. A-stability
conditions occur in low winds with high incoming levels of solar radiation.

Height Height
Stable Neutral
Unstable Stable Unstable
Mixing Neutral Mixing
Height Height

Unstable Unstable Convective Thermals

(in Unstable Conditions)

Density, p Temperature, T

Figure 2.2. Vertical density and temperature profiles in unstable, neutral, and stable
atmospheric conditions. The unstable mixing height is often marked by a inversion, or
change in the slope of the vertical density profile.
TABLE 2.1
Definitions ofPasquill Stability Categories in Terms of Wind Speed, Solar Insolation,
and Sky Conditions (Pasquill and Smith, 1983)
A: extremely unstable conditions C: slightly unstable conditions E: slightly stable conditions
B: moderately unstable conditions D: neutral conditions F: moderately stable conditions
night
surface
daytime soiar insolation
wind speed thinly overcast, or
(m/i) strong moderate slight > 4/8 low clouds < 3/8 clouds
<2 A A-B B
2-3 A-B B C E F
3-5 B B-C C D E
5-6 C C-D D D D
>6 C D D D D
(for A-B take average of values for A and B, etc.)

E-stability and F-stability conditions arise on clear nights with little wind.
D-stability class conditions occur with higher wind speeds and greater cloud
cover. A refinement of this method includes surface roughness height in the
classification scheme, where increased roughness will shift more cases toward
the neutral D-stability class conditions. An analogous method defines "rural"
and "urban" classification criteria, where a change from rural to urban conditions
has the same effect on stability class as an increase in roughness height (USEPA,
1987). Figure 2.3 shows the trends of Pasquill-Gifford stability class dependence
on cloud cover, wind speed, and roughness height. Once the stability class, wind
speed, and source release rate are specified in a given scenario, simple dispersion
models can be used to predict the downwind concentration field for many types
of passive pollutant releases.
One item neglected in the Pasquill-Gifford stability class scheme is the
overall height of the turbulent boundary layer, or mixing height. This is unspeci-
fied but can be important if a dispersing plume reaches this height. It is
sometimes included in the class description as a external parameter.

Pasquill-Gifford Stability Class

Increasing
A Cloud
Very Unstable
B Moderately Unstable Cover
Slightly Unstable (reduced Increasing Increasing Increased
Neutral radiative Wind Roughness Turbulent

I Slightly Stable
Moderately Stable
heat
transfer)
(a)
Speed

(b)
Height Mixing

Figure 2.3. Dependence of atmospheric stability class on basic parameters. The

arrows for (a), (b), and (c) show a converging trend toward neutral conditions for an
increase in the noted parameter. Turbulent mixing, (d), increases through the
Pasquill-Gifford stability class range from F to A.
2.6. Similarity Scaling in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Atmospheric conditions are usually, but not always, classified in terms of

Pasquill-Gifford stability class. Alternately, an atmospheric boundary layer
analysis can be used (Randerson, 1984). This boundary layer is a turbulent
region of air just above the ground surface and below an overlying layer of
relatively calm air. The depth of the boundary layer can vary from tens of feet
to several thousand feet.
Similarity parameters are used to describe the atmospheric boundary layer.
Turbulence, wind, and temperature are functions of the similarity parameters,
which include friction velocity, the sensible heat flux from the ground, the
Monin-Obukhov length, and the mixing height. Their relationship is illustrated
and discussed in Figure 2.4.

Unstable Conditions Turbulence Profile

Wind Profile
Inversion
Temperature Profile Height
B
Sy
Dominate

Sensible Roughness Friction Monin-

Heat Flux Height Velocity Mechanical Obukhov
Turbulence Length
H0 Dominates

Stable Conditions Wind Profile Turbulence Profile

Temperature Profile Mixing
Height
Suppressed
Turbulence

Sensible Roughness Friction Monin-

Heat Flux Height Velocity Mechanical Obukhov
Turbulence Length
H0 Dominates

Figure 2.4. Similarity scaling parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer.

Unstable and stable conditions are shown. Sensible heat flux, //o, is the thermal
energy per unit area flowing from/to the ground. The roughness height,zo, is a length
scale which characterizes the surface roughness. Friction velocity,u , is the square
root of the surface shear stress,!^, divided by the air density, ra, where shear stress
has units of force per unit area. The mixing height or inversion height, zi, defines the
overall depth of the turbulent boundary layer. The Monin-Obukhov length, L,
demarcates the height below which mechanically generated turbulence dominates in
the mixing process.
 Friction velocity, w* = (t^x/p) /2 , establishes the level of shear stress, T2*,
at the ground (drag force per unit area), and the sensible heat flux, HQ (power
per unit area), which can be positive or negative, governs the vertical tempera-
ture gradient at the ground. The Monin-Obukhov length, L = ~(pCpTau^) I
(kgHo), is a parameter for the ratio of the mechanical turbulent energy to that
produced by buoyancy. Monin-Obukhov length is negative in unstable condi-
tions, positive for stable conditions, and is infinite in neutral conditions. In
unstable atmospheric conditions the inversion height, zi, establishes the overall
depth of the thermal convective cells within the boundary layer.
Without extensive meteorological measurements, similarity scaling pa-
rameters are not easy to estimate and do not always define the state of the
atmosphere-4>etter than the simpler Pasquill-Gifford stability class. They can,
however, be used to improve certain types of dispersion model predictions,
especially for releases near the ground.

2.7. Changes over Time in the Atmospheric

Boundary Layer

In assessing accidental releases of less than an hour in duration, a dispersion

analysis using constant wind and weather conditions is usually sufficient.
However, for longer duration releases or pollutant travel times, it sometimes
becomes necessary to account for the slower variations in weather conditions
over time. Typical variations over a daily cycle in the atmospheric boundary
layer are shown in Figure 2.5.
From dawn through noon, the solar heat flux to the ground increases as the sun
rises into the sky and the depth of the convective mixed layer slowly increases. From
noon through late afternoon the mixed depth remains relatively constant. At dusk
there is arapid collapse of the daytime solar-driven convective thermals, but aregion
of gradually decaying turbulence remains within the depth of the daytime boundary
layer. After dusk the surface layer of the atmosphere is gradually cooled from below,
with an increasing stable layer growing over time as the effects of the general cooling
are felt through a greater depth. By dawn most of the turbulence from the previous
day has decayed and the daily cycle begins again.
Daily boundary layer growth and collapse is a slow function of time, with
few exceptions. Within hour-long blocks of time, the boundary layer can often
be described by single value parameters (average wind speed, average solar heat
flux, etc.) that are averaged over time and do not depend on weather conditions
at earlier time periods. The exceptions for this averaging include the transition
periods near dawn or at dusk, when weather fronts or thunderstorms move
through an area, or when there is an interruption in the daily temperature cycle.
 Height
repeating
cycle
Mixed Layer
Mixed (low turbulence)
Layer Vertical
Turbulence
Profile
Surface Layer Surface Layer
Time
Dawn Noon Dusk Dawn
Height

Stable Stable
:Density Density
Profile Profile
Vertical
Unstable Density
Density Profile
Profile
Time
Dawn Noon Dusk Dawn
Figure 2.5. Daily variations in the atmospheric boundary layer. Changes over time in
atmospheric turbulence are shown in (a), while changes in the vertical density profile
are shown in (b).