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# Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Phase 2 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of the Unit 1

## Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering

Unit
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be yes ☒ No ☐
enabled
Number of Credits 3

## Type of the Number of

Individual ☐ Collaborative ☒ 3
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☒ Final ☐
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the activity: Delivery Environment of the activity:
50 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity: Deadline of the activity: Wednesday,
Thursday, September 06, 2018 September 26, 2018

Competence to develop:

## Differentiate the algorithms, their characteristics and application in different risk

environments and/or uncertainty, for the taking of decisions and the optimization of the
expected results.

Topics to develop:

The academic course consists of three (3) academic credits, whose field of training is the
discipline and has a professional nature- elective in the program of industrial engineering
that offer the UNAD; in addition, it is theoretical. After you understand and internalize the
knowledge of the three preliminary courses of operations research (linear programming
methods deterministic, probabilistic methods) and the support in the acquired knowledge
in statistics and probability and Statistical Inference, the student is able to start the course
of decision theory, where it seeks to understand the methods, operations and definitions
on the different techniques of application in the decisions that depend on the type and
quality of the information obtained.

## Phases and stages of the learning strategy to be developed:

Phase 2 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of the Unit 1, taking into account
the following steps:
Stage 6. Individual activity: Individual review of the activity guide and bibliographical
references required and complementary for the development of the activity.

Group activities:

Stage 7. Discussion and analysis of the problems raised, revision of the algorithms to be
applied and development of the activities proposed in the Collaborative Learning
Environment.

Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the problems
solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all
the participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups
the proposed problems is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be
done according to the contributions presented individually.

Stage 8. Development of practical activities, use of Excel Solver. Review of the guides in
the Practical Learning Environment

## Stage 9. Individual e-portfolio solving in the evaluation and monitoring environment.

Stage 10. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and Monitoring
Environment.

Activities to develop

Stage 7. The team should use the knowledge they already have, the details of the
problems that are proposed and that will be discussed for its subsequent resolution. It
outlines the possible algorithms that will need to solve each of the proposed problems of
decision making under a certainty environment. Generate a list of response methods
group, then solve them according to the following indications of the problem:

## Problem 1. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

Teratex, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of 25
years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the contrary
the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the product.
The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

## Table 1. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

States of nature
Decision alternative Demand low- Demand low Demand High -
utility average - utility utility
Manufacture 221 251 310
Subcontract 210 225 278
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0,35 0,42 0,23

## ElectroCom, a company that manufactures electronic components for the introduction in

its product catalog, must decide whether to manufacture a new product in its main plant,
subcontract it with company supervision or if it buys it from an external supplier. The
profits depend on the demand of the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions
of dollars.

## Table 2. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

States of nature
Decision Demand
Demand low- Demand low Demand High
alternative High -
utility average - utility Medium - utility
utility
Manufacture 173 183 195 218
Subcontract 181 192 207 213
Lease 125 128 131 137
Outsource 188 192 198 209
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0,19 0,21 0,28 0,32

## Problem 3. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

Teratextyl, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of
30 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the
contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of
the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

## Table 3. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

States of nature
Decision alternative Demand low- Demand low average - Demand High Demand High -
utility utility Medium - utility utility
Manufacture 85 87 91 95
Subcontract 78 81 85 89
Lease 83 85 87 91
Outsource 85 87 89 93
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0,30 0,22 0,25 0,23

## PART 1. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision
Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.

## b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable

(F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

## P(F/low) = 0,3 P(D/low) = 0,7

P(F/low average) = 0,38 P(D/ low average) = 0,62
P(F/high medium) = 0,4 P(D/ high medium) = 0,6
P(F/high) = 0,55 P(D/high) = 0,45

## c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

## PART 2. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

According to the corresponding information in Table 2 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision
Trees, respond:

e. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.

## f. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable

(F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:
P(F/low) = 0,2 P(D/low) = 0,8
P(F/low average) = 0,2 P(D/ low average) = 0,8
P(F/high medium) = 0,35 P(D/ high medium) = 0,65
P(F/high) = 0,5 P(D/high) = 0,5

## g. What is the expected value of market research information?

h. What is the efficiency of the information?

## PART 3. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

According to the corresponding information in Table 3 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision
Trees, respond:

i. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.

## j. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable

(F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:
P(F/low) = 0,22 P(D/low) = 0,78
P(F/low average) = 0,35 P(D/ low average) = 0,65
P(F/high medium) = 0,33 P(D/ high medium) = 0,67
P(F/high) = 0,42 P(D/high) = 0,58

## k. What is the expected value of market research information?

l. What is the efficiency of the information?

Step 8. Enter the Practical Environment, carefully review the Guide for the use of
educational resources, explore the use of Decision Making Under Risk to solve and analyze
the problems of the Expected value. This is a free application that allows educational use
only, although it is limited in variables and states, it is excellent to find the values defined
by the Expected value of perfect information.
PART 3. USE OF E-PORTFOLIO

Step 9. Individually fill out the e-portfolio journal, so that you can verify the registration
of your difficulties and strengths with the activity of the practical environment, recognizing
the contribution for your professional life the use of the algorithms of the course, which
is in the Evaluation and follow-up environment, to record what is identified in the e-
portfolio in the conclusions of the collaborative work that is found in the Collaborative
Learning environment and thus consolidate the definitive group work.

## PART 4. RISE OF COLLABORATIVE WORK

Step 10. The leader of the group should upload a single PDF file in the Evaluation and
Monitoring Environment, in the designated space called Phase 2. Collaborative Work 1.

Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and monitoring
for the
environment
development
Individual:
None in this activity.

Collaborative:

## Expected Product: PDF file marked with its Working

Group_212066_TC1, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards, with the
following content:
Products to
Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively in the
deliver by
consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
student
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the proposed
theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the WinQSB
that performed in the practical learning environment.
Next page. Conclusions with what is stated in the e-portfolio.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that supports
the solution of problems.

## Distance learning and in virtual learning environments

requires a solid planning process against suggested activities
Planning of activities for students. In this sense, when working on elements that
for the development of require the joint participation of the members of the group,
collaborative work the need arises to articulate the learning strategy based on
Problems SBP and to direct it to facilitate the process of
student training. This approach emphasizes self-learning and
self-training, which are facilitated by the dynamics of the
approach and its eclectic constructivist conception.

## In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is fostered, taught

and learned from problems that have meaning for students,
error is used as an opportunity to learn rather than punish
and an important value is given to the self-evaluation and
formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation. The
resources needed to solve the problems are in the Knowledge
Environment. Whenever you have considered these aspects
you can then begin to develop the phases corresponding to
the individual and collaborative work of the course.

## The students at the beginning of the course, in the space

destined to do so, will be recognized as participants of a
collaborative group, they will be able to present their
strengths to the service of the group and they will define the
channels of communication (contact data, institutional and
which will be available to interact effectively and proactively.

## According to the elements that make up the principle of

responsible action, students must design a work plan based
on the analytical reflection of the activity agenda, the
evaluation plan, the guides and rubrics given for the
development of each academic activity . They will also design
a proposal for the planning of their collaborative work that
responds to the particularities and needs of the learning
Roles to perform by
strategy and mobilizes the work to be developed.
the student in the
collaborative group
Staging of the principles of collaborative work:

## It is important that students internalize each of the principles

of collaborative work and implement them from the beginning
of the academic year and thereby ensure excellence in their
learning processes and the presentation of academic products
that meet the expected quality in the course.

## Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the student,

this principle materializes when defining the ways and
mechanisms that will enable interaction in collaborative work.
The intention is for students to participate in the different
spaces of Collaborative Work and the general forum of the
Initial Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

## Principle of growth. Each student can contribute to the

process of the other peers. From this idea, in the same
scenario where interactions occur, students can contribute to
others in terms of suggesting greater participation to those
who do not intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that support
the process being carried out, among others that allow the
team to advance and that each one can strengthen its
formative process.

## Principle of Responsible Action. Students should organize

their work to achieve the goals set. It is important that each
one assumes actions in the development of the work that
contribute in the achievement of good results of the
equipment. The aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of individual
efforts, allow a successful collaborative exercise. It is also
important to consider aspects of evaluation in the student's
exercise, through the following scenarios:

## Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the process in

which the student, through an instrument designed (Survey)
recognizes and presents its strengths and difficulties in the
development of collaborative work. A score has not been
assigned on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow him / her
to progress in his / her formative process based on the
difficulties identified during the development of the activities,
their individual participation and their interaction with the
group.

## Compiler: Consolidate the document that constitutes the

final product of the debate, taking into account that the
contributions of all the participants have been included and
that only the participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of the alerts
to warn those who did not participate, that they will not be
included in the product to be delivered.

## Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the rules of

submission of work required by the teacher.
Roles and
responsibility for the
Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the criteria
delivery of products by
present in the rubric. You must inform the person in charge
students
of the alerts so that you inform the other members of the
subject.
Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the products and
send the document in the stipulated times, using the
resources destined for the shipment, and indicate to the other
partners that the delivery has been made.

## Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are notified of

new developments and inform the teacher through the work
forum and messaging of the course, which has been sent the
document.
Sanderson, C. (2006). Analytical Models for Decision Making.
New York, USA: McGraw-Hill Education Editorial. Retrieved
from:
=true&db=nlebk&AN=234098&lang=es&site=eds-live

## Gilboa, I. (2001). A Theory of Case-Based Decisions.

Camdridge, UK: Cambridge University Press Editorial.
=true&db=nlebk&AN=72982&lang=es&site=eds-live
Use of references
Rokach, L. (2008). Data Mining With Decision Trees: Theory
And Applications, Bern, Switzerland: H. Bunke, University
=true&db=nlebk&AN=236037&lang=es&site=eds-live

## Gilboa, I. (2001). A Theory of Case-Based Decisions.

Camdridge, UK: Cambridge University Press Editorial.
=true&db=nlebk&AN=72982&lang=es&site=eds-live
In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article 99, the
mistakes that infringe upon the academic order, among
others, are the following: paragraph e) “To plagiarize is to
present as your own work the whole or part of a writing,
report, task or document of invention performed by another
person. It also implies the use of cites or lack of references,
or includes cites where there is no coincidence between them
and the reference” and paragraph f)”To reproduce, or copy
for profit, educational resources or results of research
Plagiarism policy products, which have intellectual rights reserved for the
University”.

## a. In case of academic fraud proved in the academic work

or evaluation, the score achieved will be zero (0.0)
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic work of
any nature, the score achieved will be zero (0.0),
4. Evaluation rubric

## Rubric evaluation format

Phase 2 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of the Unit 1
Type of
Individual activity Collaborative activity X
activity
Moment of
Initial Intermediate, unit 2 X Final
Evaluation
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student Participation in the
The student participated in the effective
Individual participated actively forum, but his elaboration of the
student and effectively in the contributions are work is limited, so
participation elaboration of the fairly effective in the the achievement of 6
in the forum requested product. creation of the final the objectives is
Until 6 points Until 3 points Until 0 points
Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated

Although the
document presents a
The document basic structure, it
The basic norms for
presents an lacks some elements
the construction of
excellent structure, of the requested
reports are
all the exercises are body or does not
nonexistent like the
Structure of solved according to comply with the
algorithms applied 12
the Report the proposed norms for written
to the themes of
methodology and works. Not all
the theory of
algorithms of the problems are solved
decisions.
theory of decisions. according to the
algorithms of the
course.

## Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points

Although the
The objectives of the
proposed theme is
work were
treated, the body of
satisfactorily The document
the document does
fulfilled, the leaves unresolved
Problems of problems of Trees decision trees, so
the situation, the 8
trees are solved correctly that optimality
conclusions are not
and the analysis of decisions are left
relevant according
to the results
an optimal decision-
obtained by the
making.
decision tree.
Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points
The objectives of the Although the
work were proposed theme is
satisfactorily treated, the body of
fulfilled, by the the document does The document
different EPVI and not adequately solve leaves the EPVI and
EPVI and EPMI algorithms the situation, the EPMI algorithms
EPMI were solved conclusions are not unresolved, so 14
algorithms correctly and the relevant according efficiency decisions
analysis of their to the results are left unanswered.
results led to obtained by the
optimal decision- different EPVI and
making. EPMI algorithms.
Until 14 points Until 7 points Until 0 points
There are no
Writing is excellent,
spelling errors, but The document
Writing, ideas are
the document presents
spelling and correlated, and the
presents a medium deficiencies in
references body of the text is 5
articulation of the writing and spelling
coherent in its
ideas and structure errors.
entirety.
of paragraphs.
Until 5 points Until 3 points Until 0 points

## Although the use of

The practical
The use of the the practical
environment of the
practical environment in the
course has been no
environment of the final report is
longer explored, for
Use of the course is excellent, evident, the
that reason the
practical the results and the solutions found by
evidence in the use 5
learning analysis of these the application lack
of the application to
environment are shown correctly analysis and
solve the problems
in the final work conclusions
raised has been
presented. pertinent to efficient
limited.
decision making.
Until 5 points Until 3 points Until 0 points
Final score 50