Rosales, Twinkle Anne G.

STEM 2-St. Augustine of Hippo

WHAT DANGERS AWAIT WHEN THE WEST VALLEY FAULT MOVES?

MANILA, Philippines – Just like Nepal, which was struck by major earthquakes in the last 3
weeks, the Philippines is also due for a powerful one.

The "Big One," which experts say may happen in our lifetime, could strike once the West Valley
Fault moves.

The West Valley Fault, which traverses various parts of Metro Manila and surrounding
provinces, is expected to greatly affect the country since the region is not only highly populated,
it also hosts the seat of government and the country’s business capital.

Before the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and and Seismology (Phivolcs) released its latest
and more detailed maps of the Valley Fault System, quite a number of studies had been
conducted, simulating the impact of an earthquake in Metro Manila.

In 2004, Phivolcs and the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA), together with
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), conducted a study called the Metro Manila
Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS). It analyzed different earthquake scenarios in
Metro Manila.

In 2010, further studies were conducted as scientific agencies, called the Collective
Strengthening on Community Awareness on Natural Disasters (CSCAND), started the Greater
Metro Manila Risk Assessment Project Risk Analysis Project (GMMA-RAP). It allowed agencies
to create maps that determine the depth of hazards present in an area, the extent and the
frequency of hazards, and also the worst case scenario through modeling.

The 3-year project, funded by the AusAID through the UNDP, focuses on Metro Manila, but also
includes portions of Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna.

Various information campaigns have been done to disseminate findings from these studies and
educate people on how to prepare for this potentially devastating earthquake.

But are Filipinos really ready for it?

Here’s what you need to know about the West Valley Fault earthquake scenarios and what you
need to know to survive the "Big One."

The West Valley Fault has a 400-year cycle

The West Valley Fault, a 100-kilometer fault, is one of the segments of an active fault, the Valley
Fault System.

The West Valley Fault transects portions of:

 Quezon City

 Marikina

 Makati

 Pasig

 Taguig

 Muntinlupa

 Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, Norzgaray, San Jose Del Monte City)

 Rizal (Rodriguez)

 Laguna (San Pedro City, Biñan, Sta Rosa, Cabuyao, Calamba)

 Cavite (Carmona, General Mariano Alvarez, Silang)

Phivolcs recently released new, high resolution maps of this fault system that show details down
to street level. You can check if your community is one of those near the fault line through the
Atlas here: Download the West Valley Fault Atlas

The fault, which has moved 4 times in the last 1,400 years, moves roughly every 400 years,
according to Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum.
The last major earthquake generated by this fault was in 1658, or 357 years ago. This means
the metro is already due for the next big quake.

It is not the only fault line that could affect the metropolis. The last big earthquake that caused
damage in Metro Manila was the one that destroyed the Ruby Tower in the 1960s. That
earthquake was caused by a fault line in Casiguran, Aurora, north of Metro Manila.

(The 1990 Luzon Earthquake, which severely damaged the cities of Baguio, Cabanatuan, and
Dagupan, was also felt in Metro Manila, but did not do damage to the Philippine capital.)

In the studies conducted, however, what emerged as the worst case scenario is a magnitude
7.2 earthquake from the West Valley Fault on a weekday and at night. Why night time? Partly
because the studies found that the buildings most at risk of damage in the metropolis are
residential buildings, according to Solidum. (READ: INFOGRAPHIC: How powerful is a
magnitude 7.2 earthquake)

Sign that the West Valley Fault moved

Given that it is not the only fault line that could affect Metro Manila, how do you know if it is the
West Valley Fault that moved?

You will know by detecting the type of motion you feel when the earthquake strikes.

According to Solidum, those near the epicenter of a quake will first feel an up and down ground
motion, followed by a horizontal ground motion.

Those farther from the epicenter will only feel a horizontal ground motion.

If the West Valley Fault moves, the whole of Metro Manila will be affected in varying degrees.
These areas may feel that up and down motion.

Caloocan Paranaque
Las Pinas Pasay
Malabon Pasig
Makati Pateros
Mandaluyong Quezon City
Manila San Juan
Marikina Taguig
Muntinlupa Valenzuela
Navotas

Those living in provinces near the metro – such as Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna – may
also feel the up and down motion.

The areas that will feel the strongest ground shaking (Intensity High 8 in the map), however, will
not just be those near the fault itself, namely Marikina, Cainta, half of Taytay, Pateros, and
Taguig.
The cities of Manila, Makati, Malabon, Pasay, and Caloocan, though relatively far from the
actual fault line, will feel the same intensity levels as those near the fault line.

According to Solidum, this is because the foundation of those areas, especially Manila, are thick
sediments that “amplify ground shaking.”

The Manila Cathedral, located within the Intramuros area in the city of Manila, has been
destroyed by earthquakes multiple times because of this.

Effects of an earthquake on the West Valley Fault

Just like the Nepal earthquake, the effects of a magnitude 7.2 earthquake on a highly populated
area like Metro Manila will include strong ground shaking, damaged infrastructure and utilities,
and a potentially huge casualty count.

 Damaged buildings, homes, other infrastructure

At the time the MMEIRs study was conducted, there were 1,325,896 residential buildings, 981
mid-rise buildings, 119 high-rise buildings, and 1,826 public-purpose buildings.

Public-purpose buildings at the time included hospitals (177), schools (1,412), fire stations
(124), police stations (43), city and municipal halls (53).

Of these, the study projected, residential buildings would sustain bulk of the damage from the
earthquake. Details of damage projections below:

 Residential buildings - 339, 800 (25.6%) partly damaged; 168,300 (12.7%) heavily
damaged

 Mid-rise buildings (10-30 stories) - 27% partly damaged, 11% heavily damaged

 High-rise buildings (30-60 stories) - 2% heavily damaged, 12% partly damaged

 Public-purpose buildings - 8-10% heavily damaged, 20-25% partly damaged

The quality of construction and the type of building materials used play a big role in a building’s
chances of surviving the earthquake, according to experts at Phivolcs.

Unfortunately, many houses and buildings do not follow standards. (READ:12-point checklist for
an earthquake-resistant house)

Simulations conducted as part of the GMMA-RAP study show potential damages per area given
various scenarios. Potential damages from a magnitude 7.2 earthquake on the West Valley
Fault are shown in the map below.

As a general rule, older, poorly designed buildings and those built of inferior materials are more
vulnerable to collapse, according to Solidum.

 Damaged power lines, fire breakouts

At the time the MMEIRs study was conducted, some 4,482 kilometers of electrical/power lines
connected the different parts of the city to the main electrical power sources. The MMEIRs study
says 30 kilometers of this massive transmission and distribution system could be damaged if a
magnitude 7.2 earthquake strikes.

Particularly vulnerable to fire are the urban poor areas where illegal and substandard electrical
connections are common. Damaged electrical lines could trigger fire to break out in various
parts of the city which could result in more casualties, according to the study.

It can be difficult for authorities to address these breakouts as public-purpose buildings,

including fire stations, are among those expected to be damaged by the earthquake.

Mobility within the city will also be severely affected as some roads, bridges and flyovers are
expected to sustain damages during the quake.

 Water supply, communication lines

At the time of the MMEIRS study, the total length of water distribution pipes in Metro Manila was
estimated at 4,615 kilometers. This system will be broken at 4,000 different points, according to
the study.

Angat Dam, where 97% of Metro Manila gets its water supply, is also near the faultline and may
also be affected by a strong ground shaking, resulting to a potential water leakage.

Like in Nepal, communication lines within the city will also be greatly affected.

Based on the MMEIRS, Metro Manila’s communication backbone consists of over 9,445
kilometers of aerial cables and almost 4,000 kilometers of underground cables. In the
earthquake’s aftermath, 95 kilometers of this will be damaged making communication
impossible.

 Human impact

The impact of an earthquake emanating from a fault line that cuts across Metro Manila is
definitely more devastating than that which happened in Nepal on April 25.

The Nepal quake, whose epicenter was located 80 kilometers away from the Nepalese capital
Kathmandu, resulted in over 8,000 casualties. Compared to Manila, Kathmandu is less dense,
with only roughly a million residents.

Metro Manila, during daytime, has a population of roughly 14 million, with a night time
population of about 11 million.

The GMMA-RAP simulation map below shows potential casualties per square kilometer in case
a 7.2 magnitude earthquake strikes at 7 pm, when most people are already at home. You can
use the search bar to check potential casualties in your community or barangay.

Bulk of the casualties are expected to result from building collapse. The rest will be from fire and
related hazards.
Based on the MMEIRS, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake from the West Valley Fault in this mega city
will leave 33,500 people dead.

An additional 18,000 could perish as fire breaks out in various parts of the city mostly due to
damaged electrical wirings. On top of these, some 113, 600 more will be injured.

Apart from expected casualties, such an earthquake, according to the MMEIRS study, could
leave 3.15 million people homeless.

As in Kathmandu, experts say hospitals may also be either incapacitated due to power and
water supply failure as well as damages from the earthquake or overwhelmed by the number of
patients pouring in.

What needs to be done

The new, more detailed maps should help people become more aware of the danger zones in
their communities.

More than knowing where the hazards are and the impact of a potential earthquake on their
neighborhood, however, people need to know what can be done to reduce potential casualties
and prepare for the "Big One."

Solidum stressed the importance of following the Building Code, making sure the code is
updated and knowing what to do and where to go when an earthquake strikes.

“Shaking does not kill, collapsing buildings do,” he said in an earlier interview with Rappler.
(WATCH: #TalkThursday: Metro Manila earthquake scenarios)

Solidum also advises families to prepare by knowing the safest areas in their houses and to
conduct regular earthquake drills at home, in schools, and offices. – with Gwen de la Cruz,
Gemma Bagayaua Mendoza, and Wayne Manuel/Rappler.com

Learn more about how you, your family, and your community can do to prepare:

 Earthquake tips: Before, during and after

A list of things to do to prepare when an earthquake strikes

 12-point checklist for an earthquake-ready house

A checklist to identify if your house is earthquake-resistant

 Preparing your family for an earthquake

A list of things your family can do to prepare for an earthquake

 Project MOVE: Preparing for earthquakes

A 40-minute conversation with Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum and safety and disaster risk
reduction advocate Martin Aguda on how the public should prepare for the "Big One"

 Metro Manila Earthquake Scenarios

Phivolcs director Renato Solidum talks about the different earthquake scenarios that can
happen in Metro Manila

The Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) is a Project Agos partner.
The project is supported by the Australian Government.

Fast facts: West Valley Fault

100 km
Length of the West Valley Fault, which runs through six cities in Metro Manila and parts of the
provinces of Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna and Cavite

7.2
Magnitude of quake that can be generated by the fault; may result
in a very destructive ground shaking, with intensity 8 in Metro Manila and nearby provinces

37,000
Number of people who could be killed in the 7.2-magnitude quake
in Metro Manila, according to a 2013 study by the Philippine and Australian governments

ADVERTISEMENT

140,000
Number of people who could be seriously injured in the temblor

P2.5 trillion
Worth of damage from the quake

40
Percent of buildings and homes in Metro Manila that could be
destroyed or damaged in the quake

500
Fires that could be triggered by the quake; may result
in additional 18,000 deaths

57 subdivisions, villages traversed by West Valley Fault

Residential buildings will suffer the most damage from a 7.2-magnitude quake, says Phivolcs.
What do you do if your house is on an active fault?

MANILA, Philippines – Maps recently released by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and
Seismology (Phivolcs) allow people to see the location of the West Valley Fault and East Valley
Fault in Greater Metro Manila.
The question now is: do you live on an active fault?

Rappler compiled a list of subdivisions or residential villages that appear to have active faults.

At the end of this article, there is also a compilation of screengrabs from the Phivolcs maps
showing where the faults are in those subdivisions.

The list only includes places where houses appear to have been built on top of an active fault or
where, based on the subdivision's structure, houses are likely to be built on top of the fault.

Affected subdivisions are diverse: from enclaves of the rich like Loyola Grand Villas in Quezon
City, to the depressed Maharlika Village in Taguig.

Rappler found that 57 subdivisions or residential villages are transected by the West Valley
Fault, a 100-kilometer active fault that can generate a 7.2-magnitude earthquake.
(INFOGRAPHIC: How powerful is a magnitude 7.2 earthquake)

Only one subdivision, Gloria Vista Subdivision in Rizal province, is transected by the shorter
East Valley Fault which can generate a 6.5-magnitude earthquake.

But we encourage you to take a look at the Valley Fault System Atlas yourself in case we
missed something.

According to studies, residential buildings will suffer the most damage during a 7.2-magnitude
earthquake because many of them do not follow building standards. Phivolcs Director Renato
Solidum Jr said that at least 40% of all residential buildings in Metro Manila would either be
heavily or partially damaged.

Subdivisions or villages with the West Valley Fault:

Rizal (Rodriguez)

 Amity Ville

 Christine Ville

Marikina

 Loyola Garden Village

 Loyola Subdivision

 Monte Vista Village

 Industrial Valley Subdivision

 Cinco Hermanos Subdivision

 Wood Crest Subdivision

Quezon City

 Sunnyside Heights Subdivision

 Doña Anna Village

 Fil-Heights

 Filinvest Homes II and Villa Amor Uno

 Northview Subd

 Loyola Grand Villas

 White Plains Subdivision

 Queensville Court

 Greenmeadows

 Blue Ridge B

Pasig

 Valle Verde 6

 Valle Verde 5

 Valle Verde

 Valle Verde 3

 Valle Verde 1

 Kawilihan Village

Makati

 East Rembo

 Pembo

 Rizal

Taguig

 Pinagsama
  Pinagsama Phase II

 Pan-Am Village

 North Signal Village

 Central Signal Village

 South Signal Village

 Maharlika Village

 Camp Bagong Diwa

Parañaque

 Posadas Village

Muntinlupa

 Solid Mills Village

 Embassy Village

 Liberty Homes

 Carmina Compounds

 L&B Subdivision and Compound

 UP Side Subdivision

 Country Homes Alabang

 Planas Ville

 Camella Homes Alabang 3

 Country Homes Subd and Jose Marey Subdivision

 Camella Homes

 Susana Heights Village 1

 Susana Heights Subd Phase I

 St Anne Homes
  Real Ville Subdivision

Laguna

 Adelina 1A Subdivision

 GSIS Village

 Elnor Homes

 Sampaguita Village

 United San Pedro Subdivision

Cavite

 Wedgewoods Subdivision

Next steps

What do you do if your house looks like it's near a fault?

Don't panic.

According to Phivolcs, you'll only need to consider moving out if your home is right on top of the
fault or within 5 meters of it.

This is because your house may be at risk when the ground shifts beneath it during an
earthquake.

Even if your home is outside the 5-meter bufferzone, it will still be subject to intense shaking
during a 7.2-magnitude earthquake. You need to make sure it was built properly. (See
groundshaking simulation map on this story: What dangers await when the West Valley Fault
moves?)

You can consult a structural engineer to check if the building strictly follows the National Building
Code of the Philippines.

Your local government also has building officials responsible for checking if structures in your
city or province follow safety standards. But in many cases, these inspectors are handling too
much work to look into each building.

If your house is made from concrete hollow blocks, you can do the checking yourself using
Phivolcs' checklist for earthquake-ready houses.

Looking to buy a house far from any active fault?

The Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) says they now require subdivision
developers to get certification from Phivolcs to prove their project is far from a fault.
To be sure, you can ask the developers to show a copy of the certificate.

What do you do if your subdivision, city or province isn't in the list? Don't be complacent.

A 7.2-magnitude earthquake will be so strong it will likely be felt even in cities without the West
Valley Fault.

The Manila Cathedral in Manila, for instance, has been damaged many times by earthquakes
generated by the fault.

Have your homes checked for safe building standards, don't take earthquake drills for granted,
and always be ready for any scenario.

Subdivisions or villages with active faults:

Solid red lines, including those with branches, indicate that Phivolcs is certain of the presence of
the fault. Broken red lines indicating the location of the fault is an approximation.