www.elpasobuilders.
com
Third Quarter 2018
Four indicators provide insight where US housing market headed
A slowdown in new construction and
a short supply of existing homes for
sale have pushed housing prices so
high that would-be buyers are either
finding themselves in bidding wars or
sitting on the sidelines.
"We're hearing things from our real
estate agents that we haven't heard in
three years about homebuyers stepping
back from high prices," said Redfin
CEO Glenn Kelman on the real estate
firm's second quarter earnings call this
month.
What's eating the housing market, in
the midst of what otherwise looks like
upbeat growth? In part, it's a victim of
the economy's success: The Federal
Reserve is seeking to keep inflation in
429
PERMIT NO.
EL PASO TX
PAID
U.S. POSTAGE
PRSRT STD
check by raising interest rates, making
mortgages more expensive.
Meanwhile, a crackdown on
immigration as well as tariffs on
imported lumber have made it more
difficult and expensive for builders to
obtain the labor and materials they
need to construct homes. That's
especially true in hot urban markets,
where land is expensive and zoning
can be restrictive, according to the
National Association of Home Builders.
Freddie Mac forecast on Monday that
the housing market will stay slow for
the rest of the year. But it doesn't see
any real trouble on the horizon. "The
healthy economy and robust labor
market should support homebuyer
National, State & Local
Building Industry News
2018: Issue 9
demand," the mortgage giant wrote.
Here's what's happening in the
housing market now.
1. New home construction
New home construction surged
following the recession, but has
moderated in recent months. That has
left many markets with a persistent lack
of supply. That's not just true in the for-
sale market — the rental vacancy rate
is also nearly as low as it's been since
the early 1990s.
2. Housing prices
The slow growth of new housing
stock has driven up home prices
quickly, especially in hot markets like
San Francisco and Miami. (Other
markets, like Detroit, still haven't
regained the value lost during the Great
Recession, according to data collected
by the Federal Housing Finance
Agency.)
Although the closely-watched Case-
Shiller Index showed on Tuesday that
home price growth slowed slightly in
June, the 20-city composite measure
topped its pre-recession high at the
beginning of 2018.
3. Existing home sales Low inventory
and high prices have slowed down the
entire housing market, which is mostly
made up of previously owned homes.
Existing-home sales fell for the fourth
straight month in July to their lowest
level in over two years, the National
Association of Realtors reported last
week.
"Additional inventory will help contain
rapid home price growth and open up
the market to prospective homebuyers
who are consequently — and
increasingly — being priced out,"
National Association of Realtors Chief
Economist Lawrence Yun wrote on
Monday.
That creates a drag on the job market
as well, since it makes it more difficult
to pick up and move to a new city for
better employment opportunities.
Americans are already relocating far
less than they used to.
4. Foreclosures
Foreclosures plagued the housing
market during the financial crisis as
borrowers struggled with loans they
couldn't afford and homes prices
plunged. These days, borrowers are in
much better shape, but there are signs
that foreclosures are on the rise again.
The housing analytics firm Attom
Data Solutions found that foreclosure
starts are increasing again for the first
time since 2015. The trend is
particularly visible in hurricane-hit cities
like Houston, but also increasingly
expensive places like Los Angeles.
"We're seeing enough in these
bellwether markets that I think it's an
inflection point," says Daren Blomquist,
senior vice president for
communications at Attom.
But as with the rest of the housing
market, that turn in the numbers likely
isn't a sign of impending collapse. The
loans having the most trouble are those
that the Federal Housing Administration
insured in 2014, when the agency was
backing off on the very tight standards
it had imposed during the great
recession.
"In '14, what you begin to see is a
loosening of the underwriting, but not
an irresponsible loosening," says David
Dworkin, a former Treasury Department
and Fannie Mae official, who is now
president of the National Housing
Conference. "I think we're seeing a
return to a more normal market."
CNNMoney (New York) First published August 28, 2018
2 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9
2018 Issue 9
President’s
Message
Edmundo Dena
President
el Paso association of Builders
i have a hard time understanding
how someone is not a member of the
association if they are even remotely
involved in construction or supply to
the industry. i can’t ever imagine not
being a member as many of you feel
as well. i was so glad to hear that
we got a new member from outside
the county, yes a new builder
member from Presidio, Texas. We
want to welcome Spanish oaks
custom Homes, and owner Juan
Saenz to the association. it’s
interesting that Juan turned to us via
the Texas association of Builders
who in turn told him about us, his
closest local. Turns out Juan was
looking for an association to join that
would help him be better. as in be
better informed, educated, and
connected. He turned to the
association because he wants to be
a professional.
So, allow me to get to my point. el
Builders Outlook
El Paso continues to be
family friendly
Paso is my home and i’m proud to
be here. i think that all of us who
live and work here are blessed with
the feeling of security and a beautiful
multi-culture population. The el Paso
association of Builders reflects our
population and i think we are way
ahead of other local and state
associations in that respect. i had a
conversation with Ray and he was
telling me about how our national
association is trying to figure out how
to become more diverse in
membership, the same as is the
focus for the Texas association of
Builders. and it boils down to how
we value our local specialists and
make them feel welcome to join us.
during the recent membership drive
we had heard some of our more
“seasoned” members surprise
themselves by recruiting new
members. i heard that over and
over, “i didn’t think they would join.”
3
*
PRINT & INTERNET
PUBLISHING
*
Social Media & WeBSiTe
conTenT ManageMenT
*
e-Mail neWSleTTeRS
coMMUnicaTion
STRaTegY
Honestly, i think all of us has said the
same thing in the past. But as we
can see by the results of the drive ediToRial SeRViceS
we should ask, we should invite
others to join us.
if we want to continue to have el
Paso as a great place to live, if we
want to have our association grow
and prosper, then we must ensure
that we continue to be forward
thinking and relevant. our el Paso
association of Builders under the
slogan Real Texas Builders places
us in a unifying position to showcase
our members. Builder or associate
there are other associations in the
country that wish they were more like
us. Remember this when you tell the
story of why you’re a member. and
remember that no matter what, there
are builders and associates out there
waiting to join. ask them. Get Creative. Make it Snappy.
915•820•2800
www.snappypublishing.com
4
Executive’s
Builders Outlook
Message
Ray Adauto,
Plenty of work to do at the association
Executive
Vice President
EPAB
There a lot of things going
through my mind right now, most of
them work related. We are busy
and sometimes busier than we
think we can handle. First and
foremost, I want to thank the
members who entered our first
Real Texas Builder Awards event.
Originally, we had looked at doing
the awards at our installation, but
frankly that was a poor idea. We
will now be doing the awards in
mid-January, place and time to be
announced.
Secondly, we are having our Fall
golf tournament presented by
Haskins Electric Company once
again. This is the first time we will
use Butterfield Trail GC for the Fall
event after having a great Spring
tournament there. We look
forward to a successful outing on
October 25. We’ll have pictures in
the next issue.
Third we have upcoming board
nominations and elections. Always
interesting more so this year as we
look to our leadership for 2019 and
the Sergio Cuartas administration.
Sergio and I are into deep
discussions and planning, so be
ready for some exciting things.
The installation is on for Friday
December 7 at the Marriott El
Paso (Airport). More information
on that soon.
Meanwhile we will be traveling to
Austin in November for TAB Winter
meetings and preparing for next
years IBS and Rally Day events.
Another important item is that
our Association health plan is
going through some changes as
well. Our members will find a new
provider and perhaps some
exciting news on other great
changes for the betterment of our
members.
2018 Issue 9
I would like to remind all our
members of the new slogan you
are hearing and seeing. Real
Texas Builders™ is our new
trademark, using a unifying
consumer friendly slogan to
identify us and separate us from
non-members. Real Texas
Builders decals on your doors or
vehicles will tell the world that you
are a part of the industry
association and care about new
home construction. Our
advertising on radio and billboards
is telling the consumer they should
be doing business with you rather
than some non-member. We think
the message is clear and we know
it’s uniting us under one banner.
Please, use the decal or logo in
your advertising, marketing, web
page or electronic media. Tell the
world you’re a member. Afterall
why wouldn’t you.
 National
2018 Issue 9 Builders Outlook 5

Builder News

Construction
Labor Market
With a dearth of women in the
construction industry, NAHB
members call for increased
recruiting efforts to help
address labor shortage

n According to labor force

statistics from the Current
Population Survey and analyzed by
the National Association of Home
Builders (NAHB), the share of
women in the construction industry
is currently at 9 percent, although
women make up almost half—47
percent—of the total working
population. While female
construction employment slowly
picked up to around 970,000 in
2017 after the Great Recession, it
is still below the pre-recession level
of 1.1 million in 2007.
In recognition of Professional
Women in Building (PWB) Week
from Sept. 17 – 21, members of
NAHB are calling for an increase in
recruiting efforts to attract women
to the home building industry. As
the residential construction industry
continues to grapple with a severe
labor shortage, PWB members say
bringing additional women into the
construction labor force represents
a potential opportunity for the
future.
“Right now more than ever is the
time for our industry to not only
increase our recruitment efforts, but
to also change the way we talk
about careers in home building to
show women this industry has so
much to offer them,” said Judy
Dinelle, CAPS, CGP, chair of the
NAHB PWB Council and building
ambassador of 84 Lumber in
Asheville, N.C., serving as the
company’s liaison to home building
associations. “We need to help the
public, guidance counselors and
parents understand that the
industry provides a high income,
significant work values, job security
and a sense of accomplishment.”
One of the ways PWB members
hope to accomplish introducing
more females to the industry is to
create more pre-apprenticeship
programs throughout the country
and develop leadership paths
within their organizations.
“We’ve seen examples of pre-
apprenticeship programs that are
really quite successful, so we need
to replicate those programs and
implement them into more
communities across the country,”
said Dinelle. “We should all
promote and offer to help the
programs and organizations that
provide training for women. It’s our
responsibility to put our words into
action.”
6 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9

Mortgage Chinese tariffs to make home renovation more expensive

& Banking
CNBC
• Home renovation demand is
soaring, and so are the costs to
do it, thanks to a new round of
tariffs on goods imported from
China.
• The latest round hits about $10
billion worth of Chinese
products exclusive to
homebuilding and remodeling,
Commerce Department just announced
the results of an investigation into illegal
"dumping" of Chinese quartz into the U.S.,
finding, "that exporters received
countervailable subsidies ranging from
34.38 to 178.45 percent," according to its
release.
As a result it will impose import duties
on the quartz in addition to tariffs. In 2017,
U.S. imports of certain quartz surface
products from China were valued at an
estimated $460 million, according to the
Commerce Department.
Price jumps for quartz
That is already increasing quartz prices,
Goran Zucik, sales manager at Rockville,
Maryland-based Stone & Tile World.
"China was producing them by hand and
no one can copy the way they were
making some colors. Some of my cabinet
companies want to use these colors in
their remodeled showroom, but I have to
tell them that these will not be available."
The move, however, will benefit U.S.
quartz-maker Cambria, which filed the
complaint with the Commerce
Department.
"This determination is the result of the
agency's thorough investigation and
confirms what the petition alleged—that
China has unfairly subsidized quartz
step toward restoring a level playing field
within our industry, fulfilling the obvious
axiom: there is no such thing as free trade
without fair trade."
Chinese tile was generally cheaper than
U.S.-made tile, so the tariffs will level the
playing field for U.S. tile makers, even if it
increases costs for consumers.
"There have been three or four
manufacturers of porcelain tile right in
Tennessee over the past two years that
have popped up, so that business will
increase, and I think it will help the
American market for sure," added
Benson.

according to the National just in anticipation of the new duties. surface products to highjack the U.S. —Edited by Diane Olick,

Association of Home Builders.

CNBC producer Lisa Rizzolo contributed to this report.
"I know for fact that one of my market and as a result these unfairly
distributors stopped ordering three quartz traded imports have flooded the U.S.
colors because prices are jumping high market," said Marty Davis, president and
• To start, it is a 10 percent tariff, enough so it's not worth it anymore," said CEO of Cambria. "This is a critical first
but then could rise to 25
percent by the end of the year.
That would be equivalent to a
$2.5 billion tax increase on the
industry.
Home renovation demand is soaring,
and so are the costs to do it, thanks to a
new round of tariffs on goods imported
from China.
The latest round hits about $10 billion
worth of Chinese products exclusive to
homebuilding and remodeling, according
to the National Association of Home
Builders. The tariff starts at 10 percent,
but could rise to 25 percent by the end of
the year. That would be equivalent to a
$2.5 billion tax increase on the industry.
Contractor Justin Sullivan manages
home renovation projects in the
Washington, D.C., area and says costs
are going up so much so fast that he is
doing something he has never done in his
more than a decade in the remodeling
business.
"Clients and contractors are having to
set contracts with escalation clauses for
projects that are being scheduled for six
months from now, largely because we're
not sure how far prices are going to go
north," he said.
Sullivan said it is a quick education for
new clients, who were already fighting to
get projects scheduled, given the high
demand and labor shortage. Higher home
values have given homeowners more
ready cash and more incentive to improve
their investment. Now his clients have one
more worry.
"It makes them want to do the project
more quickly, trying to get it done. Then
it's looking at ways to save money that
will bring down the costs so the overall
budget doesn't increase," he said. "It puts
a little bit more pressure on everyone to
try and be as diligent about the costs as
possible."
Tariffs have already increased the costs
of Canadian lumber as well as steel and
aluminum imports. The new round adds
everything from wall and floorboard to
light fixtures, cabinets, heating and
cooling equipment, and the tile for
bathrooms and backsplashes.
David Benson is vice president of sales
at Maryland-based Architectural
Ceramics. He says his prices will go up,
especially for mosaic, glass and patterned
tile, most of which is not made in the
United States.
"It would impact the cost on ceramic
and natural stone and glass materials,
and it would increase the cost at least 15
to 20 percent of our import duties on
those items so costs will go up for sure,"
said Benson.
The latest tariffs will also impact

nahb.org/MA
materials for countertops, like granite,
marble and especially quartz. The U.S.
2018 Issue 9 Builders Outlook 7
Economic
Forescast

Why Healthcare Is So Expensive

Elliot Eisenberg
Economic & Policy
Blog

While there are many reasons why
healthcare spending is growing much
faster than the economy — including
an aging population and the rising
cost of prescription drugs — one
problem that gets virtually no attention
and is a primary cost driver is cross-
subsidies. The reason cross-
subsidies exist in the first place is
because lawmakers want to subsidize
healthcare costs for the poor, the sick,
and other potential voters — which is
well meaning — but lawmakers do not
want to raise taxes to pay for these
programs. So they hide the taxes
they should impose in the form of
cross-subsidies.
Let me explain. If someone with no
money walks into an emergency room
and needs care, they get care. But to
recover the cost of services provided
to the indigent, hospitals must
overcharge everybody else. Making
matters worse, Medicare and
Medicaid do not pay the full amount of
their service cost. As a result,
hospitals must substantially
overcharge everybody else, and that
unlucky bunch is patients with private
insurance and those who pay cash.
Of course, giving free or subsidized
healthcare to some by overcharging
paying customers is essentially
imposing a tax on those who can pay
in order to subsidize those who can’t
or won’t. But — and this is the key —
this hidden tax does not appear
anywhere. As such, it is politically
costless, and that’s why it is so
appealing to politicians. If that were
all, it would not be so bad. But it gets
worse, much worse.
Cross-subsidies are much more
inefficient than raising taxes and
spending the revenue on, in this case,
healthcare. Here’s why. In an ideal
market, if a hospital or doctor is going
to overcharge some patients, those
patients will have an incentive to shop
around for a cheaper insurance plan.
That insurance plan could be cheaper
if it sends patients to hospitals and
doctors who don’t overcharge. But if
enough such plans were to exist, the
entire system would fail because
these new low-cost providers would
drive the high-cost providers out of
business and the poor would not be
served. Thus, the introduction of
cross-subsidies must be accompanied
by a prohibition on competition. One
of the ways we see this lack of
competition manifesting itself is
insurance plans such as bronze,
silver, and gold all offering the same
services.
And once there is no competition,
there is no incentive for any non-
competitive service providers to
innovate for better care or lower costs,
and that, in turn, drives up costs for
everyone. If you are old enough, you
remember that prior to the 1980s,
local phone calls were cheap, often
free. That was because long distance
calls were very expensive; there was
cross-subsidy from long distance calls
to local calls. Of course, firms wanted
to compete to provide overpriced long-
distance calls, but the system would
have unraveled. So the federal
government gave AT&T a monopoly
and, in that way, kept competitors out
and prices up.
Once there is no competition, be it
in telecommunications, airlines,
trucking, banking, or stock trading,
inefficiencies multiply and prices rise.
Returning to healthcare, because of
this lack of any meaningful
competition, consumers know the cost
of nothing they consume and care
even less. What kind of market
operates well when prices are well
hidden? If there were real price
competition, consumers would be
bombarded with ads boasting of better
prices and outcomes and we would all
be winners.
Increasing taxes and spending,
while hardly ideal, sure beats cross-
subsidies and the attendant
monopolies that drive up costs,
prevent firm entry, and eliminate
innovation. Until cross-subsidies are
eliminated, US healthcare costs will
continue to spiral out of control and
we will be able to do nothing more
than wish for a competitive, innovative
and efficient healthcare market.

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Email:
rrivera@bukaty.com www.bukatyfs.com

Seminar focuses on
residential foundations
Any time you build a home you
need to make sure your foundation is
solid. It is after all the backbone of
the entire building. Without a good
foundation the house can fail. That
was the subject of a recent seminar
presented by Centricity, a third-party
home warranty company. The name
Centricity may be new to some
readers since the company was
formed from Bankers Warranty Group
and Bonded Builders Warranty
Group.
Brent Morgan, regional
representative for Centricity was the
point man for the seminar. “We had
an opportunity to bring some experts
in to the El Paso market and educate
builders and engineers on
foundations and what can happen,”
he told the Outlook. “We feel that the
more we educate the better the
results, especially when a foundation
A single source solution provider
centered around you.



"



"
$


!
"
 


!


"
#

"



2018 Issue 9
BUILDERS OUTLOOK • EPAB ON THE SCENE
repair or failure can cost tens of
thousands of dollars,” he said.
The attendees were given the
opportunity to ask questions to the
experts.
Justin M. Bryant, VP of Builder
Services and Sales for Perma Pier,
has been providing foundation repair
solutions to builders, homeowners,
and engineers alike for 20 years
across the state. He advises warranty
companies, builders, and engineers
on best practices and lifetime repair
solutions. “El Paso is a little more
stable soils wise than the clay we find
in Dallas or San Antonio,” he said.
“This seminar shows what things we
see wrong and how a builder can
help themselves by following simple
rules of engineering,” Justin said.
Justin was joined by Centricity’s
Morgan, Stephen Hooker, Liz Ahner
and Brant Roeming for the seminar.
new h o m e s . . .
f o r e l p a s o
y f o u n d h e re
easil
February 2017 •
FREE
el paso
builders
Introducing
El Paso New
Home Builders
magazine & website
ves.com for more
information...
Visit www.ElPasoMo
• Part of Homes of El Paso magazine

"
 ® • Mailed monthly to thousands of local homes
SM
#

SM • El Paso Airport distribution
• Stand alone magazine each quarter

Call Martha today for more

 

 
"
information at (915) 204-7017.
Brent Morgan, Regional Sales Mana
a ge r
bmorgan@centricity.com • 678.79
94 .9244 Another Mesa Publishing Publication, serving El Paso Home
Buyers for 25 years. www.MesaPublishing.com
www.ElPasoNewHomeBuilders.com
 El Dorado High School
Aztec Architecture
Academy
The El Dorado High School student
body has a new “club” to join, the Aztec
Architecture Academy. Aztecs is the
mascot for the school. The group is
comprised of students in grades 9 to 12
and offers an intensive learning
opportunity for the students wanting to
get into architecture or drafting. Luisa
Valenzuela who also handles the Young
Designer Scholarship competition for El
Dorado is the coordinator. “In my
drafting classes I have found out that
some students are really interested in
designing their graduate work in
architecture, so we created this Academy
in order to meet the passion”, she told
the Builders Outlook. “We have invited
Mr. Ray Adauto to be one of our advisors
along with other advisors from El Paso
Community College and other schools in
the district, as well as from the private
sector” she continued.
The initial meeting was held
September 19 at the school to introduce
parents and guardians to the program.
“We know that it is hard for parents to
understand that sometimes their kids are
going to be working on problems late into
the evening. I want to make sure they
know this is why sometimes.” Valenzuela
said. Students presented the program to
the audience. “I think we have a good
thing going on here,” one parent said.
“We appreciate the extra effort from Ms.
Valenzuela,” the parent concluded.

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ATT NTION BUILDERS!
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SPRAY
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10
#Real Texas
builders www.elpasobuilders.com
The El Paso Association of Builders encourages you to work with our members.
Builder members
as of September 1, 2018
Bain Construction
Scott Bain
Althon Investments, LLC
Jose Luis Martin
Bella Vista Custom Homes, Inc.
Edgar Garcia
BIC Homes
Antonio Cervantes
Blue Sage Homes, LLC
Jaime Gonzalez
Blue Star Construction
Carlos Villasana
Bowling Construction
Randy Bowling
Carefree Homes
Richard Aguilar
Casas De Leon, LLC
Nick Bombach
Cisco Homes LLC
Francisco Arroyos III
Classic American Homes Southwest Land Development Serv.
Priscilla Hernandez
Crown Heritage Homes
Lydia Mlouhi
Cullers & Caldwell Builders
John Cullers
Cullers Homes
Jason R. Cullers
D B Innovations LLC
Dan Berry
Dawco Home Builders
Walter O. Lujan
Deal 2 Deal Custom Homes
Delton Deal
Del Rio Engineering, Inc.
Sal Masoud
Diamond Homes, LLC
Valerie Baquera
Donald Ward Builder, Inc.
Donald Ward
E. Valencia Land Development LLC Vista del Sol Archetectural Design
Eddie Valencia
Eclat Homes & Designs
Veronica Guerra
Edward's Homes, Inc.
Eduardo Fernandez
EPT Bella Custom Dream Homes
Leti & Javier Navarette
EPT Land Communities
David Bogas
Everest Homes
Edmundo Dena, Jr.
Fortune Custom Homes
Javier Andrade
Gaddy Construction
Charles Gaddy
GMF Custom Homes, LP
Frank Torres
Guel Construction
Rudy Guel
Hakes Brothers, LLC
Chris Hakes
Hanson Asset Management, LP
Russell Hanson
Homes by Design
Leslie Driggers Hoard
Hunt Communities, LLC
Kathy Parry
ICON Custom Builder, LLC.
Carlos Garcia
Industrial Realty Group Incorporated
Brent D. Harris
JER Custom Homes, LLC
Jorge E. Rodriguez
Kayton Lee Residential, Inc.
Brianna Barnes
Lloyd Hamilton Contruction Alvarado Plastering & Stucco, LLC
Lloyd Hamilton, III
LMJ Construction Co., LLC
Mike Lopez
Loyalty Homes
Gustavo Loy
M A Builders & Design, LLC
Mustafa Ali
Maravilla Homes
Victor Robles
Medlock Commercial Contractors LLC
Steve Medlock
Metro Homes, Inc.
Judith Arrunada, Fernando Torres
Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9
©
Millennium Homes Barraza Drywall Corp. Eagle Custom Cabinets
Dan Ruth Ignacio Barraza Juan Benabidez
Pacifica Homes, Inc. Barrett Airworks Eagle Roofing Products
Juan Jose Vasquez Alexandro Castro Scott Aguilar
Padilla Homes Bassett Woodworks Edgar's Flooring
Misael Navarrete Danny Murillo Edgar Enriquez
Palo Verde Homes Beasley, Mitchell & Co., LLP EDLR Platering
Edgar Montiel Brad Beasley Eduardo De La Rosa
Pointe Homes Bella Vista Realty Edmund Esper
Carlos Villalobos Grisel Ortega Edmund Esper
Porter Homes Belmont's Air Conditioning, Inc. El Paso Audio Video by Design
Albert Porter Rafael Belmonte Joe Gutierrez
R.C. Baeza & Associates Big A Construction El Paso Building Materials
Robert C. Baeza Thelma Vasquez Ken Wade
R.E. Welch Contractor BMC Select El Paso Disposal
Gordon Welch David Quintana Irma Parsons
Rassette Homes, Inc. Boise Cascade El Paso Mortgage Bankers Association
Donald Rassette Mike Flores Gilbert Pedregon
Rosewood Design and Build Border Construction Specialties El Paso Times
Brianna Barnes Ricardo Yvellez Sal Hernandez, Justin Riley
Santana Custom Homes Border Solar El Paso Truss
Fernando Santana Javier Ruiz Luis Mendiola
Bordertown Carpets El Paso Winnelson
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Spanish Oaks Custom Homes Builders Source Appliance Gallery Electrolux NA
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The Heritage Group Bukaty Financial Companies Group Elizardo Garcia Electric
David Bingham Ruth Rivera Elizardo Garcia
Trejo Construction Co. C. D. Lee/Britton Insurance & Bonding ERA Sellers & Buyers
Juan Trejo Anthony Landavazo/Lisa Daniels Karla Reyes
Tropicana Building Corp. Cabinet Masters ESS Environmental and Safety Solutions
Bobby Bowling IV Mike Robles Jose L. Garcia Ramirez
Tropicana Development Carpet Warehouse EZE-R-DESIGNS
Greg Bowling Erez Belkin Leticia Mata
Tropicana Homes Casa Ford & Casa Nissan Farmers Ins.-Mercedes Ruiz
Randy Bowling Luke Lowenfield Mercedes Ruiz
Tropicana Properties Castillo Electric Felipe Rocha Construction
Demetrio Jimenez Jose Del Val Felipe Rocha
Vallance Construction LLC CEA Engineering Group Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
Oswaldo Prieto Jorge L. Azcarate Albert Holguin
Villagi Homes, LLC Central Texas Metal Roofing Supply Co.,Inc. Fire Smoke N' Grill
Kristi Eddings Ben Garza, III Bill Owen
Centricity First American Bank
Luis J. Lopez Brent R. Morgan Louis Sauceda
Will Harvey Development Century 21 The Edge First Light Federal Credit Union
Will S. Harvey Scott Kesner Lorenzo Revelez
Winton/Flair/Accent Homes Citizens Loan Center First National 1870
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as of September 1, 2018 City Lights Forge Factory Strength & Conditioning
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84 Lumber Conde, Inc. G2 Ram Electric
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915 Siteworks, LLC Copenhagen Imports GCC Sun City Materials,LLC
Hugo Jasso Flemming Carlsen Antonio "Tony" Chavez
A C Refrigeration, LLC CQC Testing and Engineering,LLC GE Appliances
Angel Cabrera Jaime Rojas Christine R. Villanueva
A Plus Remodeling & Repairs David Hernandez Cabinets GECU- Greater El Paso Credit Union
Martin Arroyos David Hernandez Danny Galindo
ABC Supply Co., Inc. David J. Ellis Fee Office for Sierra Title GEPAR-Greater El Paso Assoc. of Realtors
Larry Eck David J. Ellis Jason Sanchez
Acme Brick Company De La Torre Iron Works Go Pro Refrigeration
Steve Bush Alfredo de la Torre Humberto Diaz
Adams Moulding & Lumber Delek US dba 7 Eleven Goodman Mfg.
Tom Swahlen Sonja Scanlan Jorge Guajardo
Agustin Favela Concrete Demcon Disposal Management, LLC Great American Insurance Group
Agustin Favela Maria Elena (Nena) Gomez Julie Tomlinson
Alden R & R Services, LLC Desert Quest Plumbing Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce
Alejandro Dena Hector Gonzalez David Michael Jerome
Allbrite Electrical Designer's Mart H P Roofing & Construction
Carlos Nunez Valerie Edmiston Heriberto Prieto
Diaz Services, Inc. Harris Real Estate Group
Jose Enrique Alvarado Emmanuel Diaz Lane Harris
Amelia's Janitorial Services Dominguez Insurance Agency Haskins Electric
Amelia Gomez Victoria Dominguez Charles B. Haskins, Jr.
Area Iron & Steel Works, Inc. Doors and More Hector De.La Canal Real Estate Group
Fred L. Edmonston Jr. Miguel Moran Hector De. La Canal
Atrium Homes Dorney Security Hector Phillips fee Office for Sierra Title
Ricardo Bocardo Jr. John Dorney Hector Phillips
Bank of Texas Dunn-Edwards Paints Hercules Industries
Ray Owen Nathan Gordon John Chaney
Baron Supply DWS Building Supply Hernandez Roofing
David Trammell Sabrina Voorhies Concepcion Hernandez
Barragan & Associates E.F. Building Materials, Inc Home of Texas
Benito Barragan Efren Fraire Amanda Eason
2018 Issue 9 Builders Outlook 11
Home Pros Real Estate Group MAK Roofing & Construction Randall Smith, CPA Stone City Rocks
Penny Moore Felix Vizarreta Randall Smith Chris Baca
Homes of El Paso Marlo Building Services Rebath of El Paso/Las Cruces StrucSure Home Warranty
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HUB International Masco Contract Serv dba Gale Insul Remcon Self Storage Su Casa Magazine
Luis Rosas William Homan Will Harvey Bob Skolnick
Imperial Construction Massey Johnson Rey Construction Supreme Lending
Alexandro Garcia Josie Ledesma Manuel Reyes Lisa Wren
Inter National Bank McCoy's Building Supplies RGR Roofing, LLC Sun City International Doors
Natalie Ojeda Doug Danner Marco Rodriguez Jorge Carmona
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Cruz Balcorta Joe Soto Bradley Roe Mica Short
J. F. Plastering Moen Rudolph Chevrolet Texas Title Company
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Jack White Building Specialties Monster Link Marketing S & J Drywall, LLC TFCU
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12
A 10-Year Anniversary Highlights Need for Housing Finance Reform
Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9

“Comprehensive legislation that villain. It allowed banks to engage in trading

With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now
marking their tenth year of conservatorship,
the National Association of Home Builders
(NAHB) called on Congress to make it a
priority to enact comprehensive reform to the
nation’s housing finance system.
“To ensure a stable housing finance system
that will support the future of homeownership
and affordable multifamily housing in America,
Congress must fix the structural flaws
inherent in Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s
government charters that contributed to the
housing finance crisis,” said NAHB Chairman
Randy Noel, a custom home builder from
LaPlace, La.
Today, House Financial Services Chairman
government backstop to maintain stability in
the market during times of economic turmoil.
NAHB believes a federal backstop is a
critical element that must be incorporated into
any overhaul of the housing finance system.
NAHB is also urging Congress to enact
further reforms that would:
• Preserve the successful multifamily
housing finance framework;
• Continue the roles of the federal
government housing agencies;
• Provide an equal playing field for small
lenders;
• Restart a fully private mortgage-backed
securities market; and
incorporates these elements will ensure that
housing credit remains readily available and
affordable in the future, provide the
foundation for a stable housing finance
system and protect taxpayers,” said Noel.
“And as Congress deliberates, the
administration needs to ensure that reforms
put in place during conservatorship that have
enabled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to
better facilitate mortgage liquidity are not cast
aside.”
ABOUT THE 2008 CRISIS
The 2008 financial crisis is the worst
economic disaster since the Great
Depression of 1929. It occurred despite
Federal Reserve and Treasury Department
efforts to prevent it.
It led to the Great Recession. That's when
housing prices fell 31.8 percent, more than
the price plunge during the Depression. Two
years after the recession ended,
unemployment was still above 9 percent.
That's not counting discouraged workers who
had given up looking for work.
Causes
The first sign that the economy was in
trouble occurred in 2006. That's when
housing prices started to fall. At first, realtors
applauded. They thought the overheated
housing market would return to a more
sustainable level.
Realtors didn't realize there were too many
homeowners with questionable credit. Banks
had allowed people to take out loans for 100
percent or more of the value of their new
homes. Many blamed the Community
Reinvestment Act. It pushed banks to make
profitable derivatives that they sold to
investors. These mortgage-backed securities
needed home loans as collateral. The
derivatives created an insatiable demand for
more and more mortgages.
The Federal Reserve believed the
subprime mortgage crisis would remain
confined to the housing sector. Fed officials
didn't know how far the damage would
spread. They didn't understand the actual
causes of the subprime mortgage crisis until
later.
Hedge funds and other financial institutions
around the world owned the mortgage-backed
securities. The securities were also in mutual
funds, corporate assets, and pension funds.
The banks had chopped up the original
mortgages and resold them in tranches. That
made the derivatives impossible to price.
Why did stodgy pension funds buy such
risky assets? They thought an insurance
product called credit default swaps protected
them. A traditional insurance company known
as the American International Group sold
these swaps. When the derivatives lost value,
AIG didn't have enough cash flow to honor all
the swaps.
Banks panicked when they realized they
would have to absorb the losses. They
stopped lending to each other. They didn't
want other banks giving them worthless
mortgages as collateral. No one wanted to
get stuck holding the bag. As a result,
interbank borrowing costs, known as Libor,
rose. This mistrust within the banking
community was the primary cause of the
2008 financial crisis.
By Kimberly Amadeo

Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and Rep. John •  Enhance the activities of state and investments in subprime areas, but that Updated August 02, 2018

Delaney (D-Md.) issued a draft of a housing regional sources of housing funding. wasn't the underlying cause.
finance reform bill that includes a federal The Gramm-Rudman Act was the real


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 14 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9

Market Watch
www.marketwatch.com

We’re probably at peak housing. Here’s what that means.

A decade after the housing crisis, sales three straight years of inventory decline,” unable to make their mortgage payments, or Khater noted, “but never went negative, and
may have reached an unimpressive top. Khater said in an interview. “It’s not only not- might decide to take a different job in a the impact on performance was fairly minor.”
In May, sales of previously-owned homes expanding, it’s contracting. The consensus different city. That would prompt many That is, people were able to continue to
slumped, the second month in a row of is that if there’s a recession, it’s a modest, people to sell their homes at cheaper prices make their mortgage payments on time.
declining sales. The National Association of plain-vanilla recession. If that’s the case, I than the houses might be valued at if the There are, again, lots of caveats. In a
Realtors, which tracks those sales, pointed think what it might do is cause inventories to economy wasn’t under pressure. At the nationwide recession, some areas that aren’t
to the same culprit it’s blamed for the past rise modestly and home price growth to same time, there would be less of the as hot as Houston (over 104,000 out-of-
few years: not enough supply of homes to slow. My base case is that – an economic frenzied demand for homes that bid prices state residents re-located there in 2016)
buy. recession but not a real estate recession.” higher. (As Khater emphasizes, it’s won’t fare as well.
Shortly after the Realtors released their For economic history wonks, Khater likens impossible to know which sectors of the Still, homeowners generally have built up
data, Regions Chief Economist Richard his “base case” to the 2000-2001 downturn, economy get hurt the hardest in the next more equity than at any time in American
Moody wrote this in a research note: “Given which was a recession caused in part by the downturn, and it’s possible the pain could be history, and they’re staying in homes longer.
that we see little reason to expect implosion of the dot-com sector – but which widespread, nationwide.) That should provide a good “cushion” for
meaningful relief on the inventory front over didn’t really hit the housing market. In Richard Moody’s outlook, a housing most homeowners in a downturn, as Khater
coming quarters, we think it reasonable to Khater is reluctant to forecast details downturn before we get to an economic puts it.
conclude that we have passed the cyclical about something he thinks won’t happen for downturn, demand would “settle back,” as Put another way: the most vulnerable
peak for existing home sales.” another two years or so, but he did point out he puts it, and “that would be reflected in homeowners in the next downturn could be
Ten years after the financial crisis, the that markets that are the most overvalued less upward pressure on prices.”That is to people in pricey coastal markets who bought
notion of a housing “peak” – which would would likely be the ones that get hurt the say, prices across the country could even recently and have very little equity in their
naturally be followed by a downturn – seems most in any kind of downturn. continue rising – just more slowly. homes, either because they made small
downright spooky. The trauma of the last Picture a mild economic downturn, in That’s what happened in Houston when down payments or because they’ve taken it
correction is still with us: more than 1.1 which hundreds of tech workers along the oil prices collapsed in 2014. Yearly home out.
million Americans are still underwater, West Coast lose their jobs. Many would be price gains decelerated from 12% to 4%, By Andrea Riquier
according to Black Knight, many
foreclosures are still wending their way
through the system, and ultra-tight lending
standards put in place when the pendulum
swung hard after the correction continue to
lock many Americans out of the market.
But under normal circumstances, a
correction in housing, like in any market, is
normal, foreseeable – and possibly, though
not certainly – upon us.
(It’s also worth noting that many voices
have spent the last several years,
seemingly ever since the last bubble burst,
squawking about a new bubble. And it’s
true that prices in many metros keep
pushing higher and higher, defying the laws
of logical market dynamics. But that’s been
driven by outsize demand and lean supply
that can’t keep up, not speculation.)
For the handful of economists calling the
present moment a cycle top, it simply
means that from here on, sales will stop
growing, and possibly even decline, as will
home prices.
Here’s how Nationwide Chief Economist
David Berson put it in May, in response to
the Realtors’ April sales figures: “We
project that existing home sales will edge
up by around 1% in 2018 to around 5.56
million units, which would be the strongest
pace of sales since 2006. We expect that
this will be the high-water mark for sales in
this cycle.”

There’s widespread agreement among

housing-watchers that the biggest problem
facing the market is the supply-demand
imbalance referenced in the May existing-
home sales data.
Where analysts disagree is on what
impact that will have. Moody and another
economist, Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon
Macro, believe that if supply remains
stifled, it will continue to push home prices
higher and higher. Add that to rising
mortgage rates, and at some point demand
will wane.
“You can withstand some further
increase in mortgage rates, but at some
point, eventually you hit a tipping point on
mortgage rates where it does erode
affordability,” Moody told MarketWatch.
But Sam Khater, chief economist for
mortgage finance provider Freddie Mac,
thinks there’s still room to run. Khater
thinks existing-home sales have “hit the
speed limit,” and recognizes that rising
rates will at some point price many people
out of the market.
Still, he said, “Total sales should
continue to go up.”
Usually, over-supply is what causes a
housing downturn, Khater said. Remember
home builders throwing up development
after development in 2005-2006, farther
and farther away from city centers, in the
expectation that there would be an endless
supply of people to buy them?
“Here we are nine years in, we’ve had
 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9 El Paso Disposal
6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905
915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038
■■ExEcuTivE OFFicERS
PRESiDENT
Edmundo Dena
Luis Rosas, HUB International
Brenda Aguirre, Rocky Mountain Mortgage
Sandra Lucero, Builders Source
772-7495
vicE PRESiDENT Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing
Sergio Cuartas Jorge Herrera, J&H Post Concrete & Post Tension
SEcRETARY Angelique Roman, Sierra Title
Edgar Garcia Patrick Tuttle, Legacy Real Estate
ASSOCIATES VICE PRESIDENT Sam Trimble, Lone Star Title
Sam Shallenberger Patricia Martinez, Stewart Title
ExEcuTivE vicE PRESiDENT Randall Smith, Randall Smith, CPA
Ray Adauto
PAST PRESiDENT ■ TAB STATE DiREcTORS
Don Rassette Randy Bowling - Life Director
Sam Shallenberger
■■cOMMiTTEE cHAiRS Edmundo Dena
Membership
Ted Escobedo ■ NATiONAL DiREcTORS
Patrick Tuttle Bobby Bowling, III
Demetrio Jimenez
Finance committee Leslie Driggers Hoard -Alternate
Kathy Carrillo/Treasurer Antonio Cervantes - Alternate
Henry Tinajero
Honorary Life Members
Community Outreach Mark Dyer
Angelique Roman

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Patricia Martinez Anna Gill
Brad Roe
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Residential Specialists
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Tract Homes • Custom Homes

Delton Deal Edgar Montiel
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■■ADviSORY TO THE BOARD Frank Arroyos
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Randy Bowling
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Builders: Doug Schwartz
■■BOARD OF DiREcTORS

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John Chaney, Hercules Industries
Satisfaction
EPAB Mission Statement:
The El Paso Association of Builders is a federated professional
organization representing the home building industry,
committed to enhancing the quality of life in our community by
providing affordable homes of excellence and value.
The El Paso Association of Builders is a 501C(6) trade
organization.
© 2018 Builder’s Outlook is published and distributed for
the El Paso Association of Builders
by Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing, LLC

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